EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Howardh · 6 Aug 2019

berneyarms said:
You do realise that an immense amount of data is shared between the Irish and UK governments about who has entered either jurisdiction from outside the two countries. That facilitates intelligence led Border Force checks within the UK

The notion that there’s going to be mass illegal immigration across the Irish-UK land border really is rather fanciful to say the least.

So that information can be shared with Dover and Heathrow meaning EU's don't need to be checked coming in on the grounds that it works for the Irish/UK border?

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berneyarms · 6 Aug 2019

Howardh said:
So that information can be shared with Dover and Heathrow meaning EU's don't need to be checked coming in on the grounds that it works for the Irish/UK border?

You really don’t seem to be familiar with Irish immigration procedures and set up.

Both governments share data with each other about everyone who enters either jurisdiction through ports and airports from outside the two countries.

That is not going to change.

The notion that mass illegal immigration is going to happen across the border is ludicrous as UK Border Force have the power already to stop potential illegal immigrants already by way of intelligence led spot checks and do so as it is.

Non-EU entrants to Ireland holding an Irish visa already do not necessarily have the right to enter the UK, as visa requirements are different for the two countries. That is policed by intelligence led checks at UK airports on flights from
Ireland and within NI by internal checks.

Howardh · 6 Aug 2019

berneyarms said:
You really don’t seem to be familiar with Irish immigration procedures and set up.

Both governments share data with each other about everyone who enters either jurisdiction through ports and airports from outside the two countries.

That is not going to change.

The notion that mass illegal immigration is going to happen across the border is ludicrous as UK Border Force have the power already to stop potential illegal immigrants already by way of intelligence led spot checks and do so as it is.

Non-EU entrants to Ireland holding an Irish visa already do not necessarily have the right to enter the UK, as visa requirements are different for the two countries. That is policed by intelligence led checks at UK airports on flights from
Ireland and within NI by internal checks.

Firstly I'm very aware of Ireland/UK's intelligence, I was one of the few - if possibly the only one before the referendum - that recognised this issue before the referendum and spoke to my MP (Green, Bolton W) and was also on the BBC to point this out. I called it correctly.
Okaaay...let's run this through you. I'm Pavel and I'm a convicted polish criminal. I go to Ireland, and the Irish authorities scan my ID card and tell the UK I'm in Ireland. I check in at the Holiday Inn in Dublin. 7 nights.
On the third day I decide to catch the train, using cash, to get to Belfast - in the UK of course.
How on earth are the UK authorities gonna stop me? There's no checks on the train, and if they did follow me (how much would THAT manpower cost??) how do they know I'm not an IRA sympathsizer who's armed to the back teeth should I be stopped?
Mass immigration across that border WILL happen because it will be the only route in for those who want to do us harm, or those who want to join our post-Brexit golden highlands and want a share.
And non-EU immigrants is a total red herring as we are concerned about EU migrants - that's the EU you want to leave.

berneyarms · 6 Aug 2019

Howardh said:
Okaaay...let's run this through you. I'm Pavel and I'm a convicted polish criminal. I go to Ireland, and the Irish authorities scan my ID card and tell the UK I'm in Ireland. I check in at the Holiday Inn in Dublin. 7 nights.
On the third day I decide to catch the train, using cash, to get to Belfast - in the UK of course.
How on earth are the UK authorities gonna stop me? There's no checks on the train, and if they did follow me (how much would THAT manpower cost??) how do they know I'm not an IRA sympathsizer who's armed to the back teeth should I be stopped?
Mass immigration across that border WILL happen because it will be the only route in for those who want to do us harm, or those who want to join our post-Brexit golden highlands and want a share.

I don’t think the Irish authorities will be too happy with a highly armed Pavel wandering around Ireland in the first place either. I think you’re being pretty insulting to the Irish Garda Síochána and INIS immigration officers with that kind of exaggerated nonsense. You seem to be implying that Ireland is a country that has no laws or effective security forces which, frankly, I find highly offensive.

Let me break this to you - we do.

I don’t know how many times I can repeat myself. There are already intelligence led spot checks within Northern Ireland and Ireland on trains, buses and cars for illegal immigrants and at UK airports on flights from Ireland.

Doppelganger · 6 Aug 2019

Howardh said:
Okaaay...let's run this through you. I'm Pavel and I'm a convicted polish criminal. I go to Ireland, and the Irish authorities scan my ID card and tell the UK I'm in Ireland. I check in at the Holiday Inn in Dublin. 7 nights.
On the third day I decide to catch the train, using cash, to get to Belfast - in the UK of course.
How on earth are the UK authorities gonna stop me? There's no checks on the train, and if they did follow me (how much would THAT manpower cost??) how do they know I'm not an IRA sympathsizer who's armed to the back teeth should I be stopped?
Mass immigration across that border WILL happen because it will be the only route in for those who want to do us harm, or those who want to join our post-Brexit golden highlands and want a share.
And non-EU immigrants is a total red herring as we are concerned about EU migrants - that's the EU you want to leave.

Oh dear...

1. If he's Polish it's Paweł

2. If he is a convicted criminal there are already mechanisms in place to deny him entry. If they are not being utilised then I doubt anything meaningful will be put in place post Brexit

You are really not doing remainers any favours with your very bizarre viewpoints.

nidave · 7 Aug 2019

Enthusiast said:
You mean rather than leave the EU, simply remove our name from the list of members? Schengen, the Customs Union and the Single Market are all manifestations of the EU institutions that people who voted to leave want nothing to do with. Joining Schengen and remaining in the CU and SM would be a worse situation than we have now.

The notion that vast numbers of tourists, economic migrants criminals and terrorists will make the journey to the UK via Ireland is fanciful. Tourists will not need to because perfectly sensible arrangements will be made for their entry to the UK, whatever form Brexit takes. People from outside the EU are allowed to visit the UK now. Similar arrangements will be made for EU citizens after we have left. Illegal migrants will not make the trip. They don't now - it's easier to buy a rubber boat and cross the Channel rather than do the same to get to Dun Laoghaire. Criminals and terrorists will always gain entry if they are determined and similarly they don't currently travel to Ireland to do so. There is effectively no border in Ireland now but, as far as I know, vast numbers of people seeking illicit entry to the UK do not so via that border now so why should any more do so post Brexit? Which brings me back to my original point - why do the people smugglers have October 31st in their diaries?

There seems widespread consensus on here that we cannot leave the EU because it is too tricky. That is the deliberate strategy of the EU so that once in, it's hard to get out. It's only an excuse for not leaving - it's not a good reason for remaining.

You seem very focused on people. It's goods which are going to be the main cause of problems on the Irish border especially as (looks likely) we diverge from EU standards to follow and be told what to do and how we should do it and how much its going to cost us by the USA.

In other news it looks like Poland has overtaken the uk to be the 6th most important trading partner with Germany.

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/com...most/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

They need us and all that.

Bantamzen · 7 Aug 2019

Xenophon PCDGS said:
Perhaps we are a nation of simpletons with no understanding of the global economy, noting that it was electorate, not the leaders, who cast their votes in the manner that they did during the referendum vote.

edwin_m said:
The average voter has better things to do than understanding the global economy. But politicians really should have that sort of understanding before they pronounce on the subject.

We are not necessarily a nation of simpletons, however wanting to have a say on such an important matter requires that voters at least understand the basics of what they are voting for, which clearly many did not. Politicians have a responsibility to look at the finer details and communicate the basics to the electorate, this also did not happen. So really we are all guilty of a form of political simplicity, the public for not demanding a more fact focused debate, politicians for not trying to deliver it.

edwin_m · 7 Aug 2019

Xenophon PCDGS said:
I assure you that my good lady wife (77) and I (74) are intelligent enough to have considered matters from our own researches prior to the referendum when we both came to a decision to vote remain. It is not a case of having "better things to do", but the ability to mentally multi-task and to be able to consider many matters relevant at any time comes normal to both of us

Again I will reiterate that although the remain vote was lost at the time of the referendum, it was a democratic vote of the electorate.

You probably have the luxury of the time to do this and the knowledge to know where to look. It's a bit different for someone who may be working several zero hours contracts to pay the rent and who not only doesn't have the time - and is also highly fed up with their lot in life. There is the temptation to listen to the easy answer from the politician or the tabloid who says it's all the EU's fault.

chris11256 said:
The issue I have with this is we seem to be going in circles. A significant number of mp’s say they’re against no deal, but they’re also completely against the only deal on offer.

So what happens if remainers win in a no confidence vote September/October and Borris is out, we ask for another extension and repeat the process in 6 months time? Personally I’m for remain, but am sick of parliament saying what it doesn’t want, with very little on what it does want.

Unfortunately the parliamentary process was curtailed slightly too soon. If they'd combined a customs union with a referendum, and allowed a free vote for those on the government payroll, then it might have got through. As it is we will never know.

The whole issue arises from the vagueness of what "leave" meant in 2016 compared to the well-defined nature of remaining. Leave included a bundle of options and neither May's cabinet, the Tory party, the Commons or probably the electorate as a whole has a clear majority for a single solution. Had a clearly defined deal (May's or some other) been on the ballot paper as the leave option in 2016 then there would have been a clear choice between two fully defined courses of action. The campaign could have been about certainties about what would be happening and speculation on the consequences, rather than just suppositions.

Hence the only answer is to put this back to the people. The only three options that are clearly implementable are May's deal, no deal or remaining, and even if the EU was willing I don't see any benefit in spending many more months trying to vary this list. This would have to be under a single transferrable vote or similar system to minimise the distortions that three-way decisions can create.

berneyarms said:
You do realise that an immense amount of data is shared between the Irish and UK governments about who has entered either jurisdiction from outside the two countries. That facilitates intelligence led Border Force spot checks within the UK for illegal immigration.

Would this co-operation survive the UK potentially crashing out of the EU's collective security arrangements, severely damaging the Irish economy (but proportionately hurting our own more) and breaching the Good Friday Agreement?

DerekC · 7 Aug 2019

nidave said:
You seem very focused on people. It's goods which are going to be the main cause of problems on the Irish border .

I think the debate here is missing the point. A large part of the border issue is psychological. The two traditions in the North of Ireland each want to feel they are part of their mother country - in the one case the UK, in the other, Ireland. The current arrangement post-Good Friday Agreement allows them both to do that. It is a carefully balanced compromise. The Brexiteers have simply ignored it because it stands as an obstacle to their project, rubbishing those who point it out rather than listening and responding to the problem. The May government demolished any chance of restoring the power sharing government and undermined one of the founding principles of the GFA by taking the DUP on board. It's already a total mess. It might be recoverable given a new UK government without the DUP - but if (as now seems all too likely) by then Brexit has been done in such a way that it restores the psychological border, it will make the situation much worse. As ever in Ireland, the consequences may be with us for generations to come. A referendum on the future of Northern Ireland seems likely one day. In the pre- Brexit world it was possible to imagine a peaceful transition to a united Ireland with the Unionists maintaining their links to the UK - a mirror image of the current situation. Now that's out of the window and what might well happen is a mirror image of the Troubles.

berneyarms · 7 Aug 2019

Howardh said:
And non-EU immigrants is a total red herring as we are concerned about EU migrants - that's the EU you want to leave.

And FYI I’m not leaving the EU nor do I wish to.

I’m an Irish citizen living in Dublin in Ireland.

berneyarms · 7 Aug 2019

DerekC said:
I think the debate here is missing the point. A large part of the border issue is psychological. The two traditions in the North of Ireland each want to feel they are part of their mother country - in the one case the UK, in the other, Ireland. The current arrangement post-Good Friday Agreement allows them both to do that. It is a carefully balanced compromise. The Brexiteers have simply ignored it because it stands as an obstacle to their project, rubbishing those who point it out rather than listening and responding to the problem. The May government demolished any chance of restoring the power sharing government and undermined one of the founding principles of the GFA by taking the DUP on board. It's already a total mess. It might be recoverable given a new UK government without the DUP - but if (as now seems all too likely) by then Brexit has been done in such a way that it restores the psychological border, it will make the situation much worse. As ever in Ireland, the consequences may be with us for generations to come. A referendum on the future of Northern Ireland seems likely one day. In the pre- Brexit world it was possible to imagine a peaceful transition to a united Ireland with the Unionists maintaining their links to the UK - a mirror image of the current situation. Now that's out of the window and what might well happen is a mirror image of the Troubles.

Very well put.

Howardh · 7 Aug 2019

berneyarms said:
I don’t think the Irish authorities will be too happy with a highly armed Pavel wandering around Ireland in the first place either. I think you’re being pretty insulting to the Irish Garda Síochána and INIS immigration officers with that kind of exaggerated nonsense. You seem to be implying that Ireland is a country that has no laws or effective security forces which, frankly, I find highly offensive.

Let me break this to you - we do.

I don’t know how many times I can repeat myself. There are already intelligence led spot checks within Northern Ireland and Ireland on trains, buses and cars for illegal immigrants and at UK airports on flights from Ireland.

Let me break this to you...they can't stop Pavel wandering round Ireland unless he's a very serious convicted criminal. As in "Freedom of movement". Note - the same would apply to him trying to get into the UK today, he would have to have very serious convictions to be stopped. After Brexit the good news is we should be able to stop him, the bad news is only if he enters via a GB port of entry and not through Ireland.

Howardh · 7 Aug 2019

berneyarms said:
And FYI I’m not leaving the EU nor do I wish to.

I’m an Irish citizen living in Dublin in Ireland.

Lucky you!!!

Howardh · 7 Aug 2019

nidave said:
You seem very focused on people. It's goods which are going to be the main cause of problems on the Irish border especially as (looks likely) we diverge from EU standards to follow and be told what to do and how we should do it and how much its going to cost us by the USA.

In other news it looks like Poland has overtaken the uk to be the 6th most important trading partner with Germany.

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/com...most/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

They need us and all that.

It has to be remembered that no-deal would mean we will very likely lose our rights to import unlimited duty-paid goods (ie alcohol) for our own consumption or as gifts. We go back to the thimbleful amounts of duty-free allowances. However if someone wishes to make the trip France/RoI/GB - admittedly a very long and costly way round but maybe a caravanner on tour who would do that anyway - then they can still bring in their bootfull of cheap duty-paid booty into Ireland and across the border that way. I admit that the number of genuine tourists doing that would be relatively small and most would live in NI; however there's still the threat of bootleggers bringing stuff over using small vans and illegally selling on for profit under the counter (had one example of that with cigarettes in my town recently), shifting the focus of capture onto local authorities rather than customs, and the LA's have hardly the time, manpower or money to do that properly these days?

berneyarms · 7 Aug 2019

Howardh said:
Let me break this to you...they can't stop Pavel wandering round Ireland unless he's a very serious convicted criminal. As in "Freedom of movement". Note - the same would apply to him trying to get into the UK today, he would have to have very serious convictions to be stopped. After Brexit the good news is we should be able to stop him, the bad news is only if he enters via a GB port of entry and not through Ireland.

With all due respect you are just being sensationalist and I’ll repeat very insulting to my country's security forces - as an Irish citizen I don’t see this being the massive issue you think it is.

I think you need to calm down a bit.

DarloRich · 7 Aug 2019

YorkshireBear said:
They are just positioning to blame no deal on EU if it goes wrong. I sense the current government actually want no-deal and just trying to position themselves as it not being there fault!

I like the logic though. We want something the EU has made clear for 3 years they won't accept, so it is their fault for not re-entering negotiations not our fault...

You couldn't make it up, although sadly after last few years you could.

that is exactly what is happening and the brainless gammony brexit lovers will gobble it up hook, line and sinker.

Xenophon PCDGS said:
Perhaps we are a nation of simpletons with no understanding of the global economy, noting that it was electorate, not the leaders, who cast their votes in the manner that they did during the referendum vote.

Agreed. We are being driven over the cliff by the rampant ignorance and poor education of the electorate. The problem is that those who should be driving the bus are also just as clueless and instead of acting in a mature fashion and developing a proper plan have floundered about for 3 years doing nothing but make us look increasingly bonkers.

Howardh · 7 Aug 2019

Anyone care to predict the date of the next general election? It's scheduled to be in May 2022!! Me thinks Dictator Johnson will gerrymander the country out of the EU and have an election in November. Let's hope any new government can overturn the mess he's created and get a proper deal with the EU, maybe even an EEA-type deal where we keep customs union and single market membership.

NoMorePacers · 7 Aug 2019

I would reluctantly accept an EEA-type deal where we remain in the customs union and single market, although remaining would be preferable of course. And it's technically what the people voted for.

Howardh · 7 Aug 2019

NoMorePacers said:
I would reluctantly accept an EEA-type deal where we remain in the customs union and single market, although remaining would be preferable of course. And it's technically what the people voted for.

That nice Mr Farage suggested that in the first place, although not in as many words - didn't he prefer the "Norway model" which is, more-or-less, all of the above? Eg Norway's citizens join the EU lane as they are in the Schengen Zone. If Farage and Leave had stuck to that, I could well have voted for it and I'm sure many other remainers as a decent compromise. And if so, we wouldn't be in the state we are today. We wouldn't even have to be in Schengen, just a Swiss-style agreement to be treated as EU citizens on our travels, and let business sort itself out.

anme · 7 Aug 2019

Howardh said:
Let me break this to you...they can't stop Pavel wandering round Ireland unless he's a very serious convicted criminal. As in "Freedom of movement". Note - the same would apply to him trying to get into the UK today, he would have to have very serious convictions to be stopped. After Brexit the good news is we should be able to stop him, the bad news is only if he enters via a GB port of entry and not through Ireland.

Are you proposing that the UK requires visas for visitors from the EU after brexit?

anme · 7 Aug 2019

Enthusiast said:
Schengen, the Customs Union and the Single Market are all manifestations of the EU institutions that people who voted to leave want nothing to do with.

Nonsense. The question in the referendum was whether to leave the European Union. The leave campaign itself promoted the Norwegian model. If you want a democratic mandate for leaving the customs union and the single market, you will have to hold another referendum.

Strat-tastic · 7 Aug 2019

DarloRich said:
that is exactly what is happening and the brainless gammony brexit lovers will gobble it up hook, line and sinker.

Why do you insist on using such insulting language to describe a fellow human being and participator in our democratic process?

anme · 7 Aug 2019

Strat-tastic said:
Why do you insist on using such insulting language to describe a fellow human being and participator in our democratic process?

The language might be questionable, but the fundamental point is sound. How many brexiters did you hear criticising Johnson for making up that BS about kippers? Don't they feel insulted to be treated in such a way by someone who wants to be their leader?

edwin_m · 7 Aug 2019

anme said:
Nonsense. The question in the referendum was whether to leave the European Union. The leave campaign itself promoted the Norwegian model. If you want a democratic mandate for leaving the customs union and the single market, you will have to hold another referendum.

Some of the 52% may have wanted that. Others didn't. Many probably didn't know or didn't care. In all probability adding together the people who would actively support any one solution or at least prefer it over remaining would come to less than the 48% who voted to remain. Along with the lies in the campaign, that is why no leave option has a democratic mandate.

SteveP29 · 7 Aug 2019

Howardh said:
we simply allow everyone in unchecked, then tourists can tour, shoppers shop yet they can't get jobs, rent a house or use our benefits system without permit.

The Brexiters comeback at that point is 'well, they'll only go and work in the black market instead, yet still use our schools and hospitals'

Geezertronic · 7 Aug 2019

edwin_m said:
Hence the only answer is to put this back to the people. The only three options that are clearly implementable are May's deal, no deal or remaining, and even if the EU was willing I don't see any benefit in spending many more months trying to vary this list. This would have to be under a single transferrable vote or similar system to minimise the distortions that three-way decisions can create.

If both Leave options get 26% each and the Remain option gets 48%, do you then have another Referendum with only the two Leave options to vote on and Remain discounted?

DerekC · 7 Aug 2019

Geezertronic said:
If both Leave options get 26% each and the Remain option gets 48%, do you then have another Referendum with only the two Leave options to vote on and Remain discounted?

No - as @edwin_m says, you have a single transferable vote so you vote for 1st and 2nd preferences. I voted remain and still think that's right, but I would prefer May's deal to no deal so would put it second. It seems to me highly unlikely that "no deal" would win.

Howardh · 7 Aug 2019

anme said:
Are you proposing that the UK requires visas for visitors from the EU after brexit?

The UK has that option, but if it did go down that route then the EU would respond by demanding our tourists have to have visas too (rather than the half-way house ETIAS which will be here by 2021/2). Of course if the UK did that (and even with no-deal there's no reason to) the chances are there would be a significant drop in EU tourists coming here whether it's sightseeing or shopping. So the UK has the option, but would be stupid to use it. Then again what's gone on in the last three years which makes sense??

I can actually see us sometime in the future introducing our own visa-waiver although as alluded to now many times, a visa or visa-waiver would be pointless as EU's can access Ireland and arrive in the UK vi that route. So before any visa scheme operated, they would have to make the UK/Ireland border hard.

But in answer - no, in fact I want the opposite between us and the EU, completely open borders so going to and arriving back from the EU we don't have to go through immigration. Huge time-saver and the immigration officials can be re-routed to non EU/UK immigration where I see regularly enormous queues at airports. Many of those simply want to come here on holiday and sppend their money on us. let's filter them in quicker?

Howardh · 7 Aug 2019

SteveP29 said:
The Brexiters comeback at that point is 'well, they'll only go and work in the black market instead, yet still use our schools and hospitals'

Anyone working in the black market - and let's face it we see them every day in car-washes, cleaning windows etc for cash - is preventing someone else getting that job legitimately, paying their NI contributions and tax etc and in return getting said NHS treatment, schooling etc above board.
So I have some sympathy for Brexit on that one, every job should be legit, not only for the economy but for the worker who could be ripped off with low wages, no safety and no pension provision.
However, I can't see how Brexit will solve the black market. Might make it worse if EU's sneak in (either as a tourist and stay or via Ireland) unknown and end up in warehouses working for a pittance illegally. At least if they are EU's now they don't have to hide and can alert officials to poor conditions without fear of arrest themselves?

bramling · 7 Aug 2019

DarloRich said:
that is exactly what is happening and the brainless gammony brexit lovers will gobble it up hook, line and sinker.

Is it *really* helpful or appropriate to use an insult which derives from skin colour?

EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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