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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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liam456

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View media item 3340
Is the above fantasy too? If not does it show that rail growth has risen significantly in 9 years? Does it show that growth is above 25% (9 years of 2.5% growth per year) for nearly every region which benefits from HS2? Does it show +70% growth for those regions which benefit from HS2 phase 1?

If so are you aware that under the model growth was predicted for 2.5% per year meaning that by the opening of Phase 2a growth should have reached +56%. +56% to +70% doesn't sound a lot but given the flows involved it's about a million extra trips being made a year between London and the North West compared with what was expected at the opening of Phase 2a.

Now although the North West and Yorkshire/Humber are below this they are still above the predictions anticipated for this point in the growth model by over 1/2 million passengers, with 1.35 million passengers to find in the next 9 years to carry on being on track at the opening of Phase 2a. To put that in perspective there were 2.4 million in the previous 9 years. However there's new trains and new services starting, which tend to always boost passenger numbers.

Phases 1, 2a & 2b (West) are currently more than justified on passenger growth, so can cope with some cost overruns. Phase 2b (East) is less robust, but is still meeting and exceeding the passenger rail growth predictions used to justify building HS2.

Someone else here on RUK, I remember, equated some anti-HS2 arguments to resemble those of a tinfoil hat conspiracy theory, where everything that justifies HS2 is fake and their back-of-fag-packet scheme is going to be a million times better than HS2 in every justifiable way.
 
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The Ham

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Someone else here on RUK, I remember, equated some anti-HS2 arguments to resemble those of a tinfoil hat conspiracy theory, where everything that justifies HS2 is fake and their back-of-fag-packet scheme is going to be a million times better than HS2 in every justifiable way.

Wow, they've made progress then. Normally when I ask about alternate schemes there's not even sight of a fag packet (as an aside there's probably a need for a new phrase given that fag packets are getting harder to find & the back of them tends to be a lot more cluttered than it was in years gone by).

There's definitely a case for repeating the amount of growth seen on the railways, add the StopHS2 narrative gives the impression that a few extra coaches and it'll be problem solved. However their narrative is wrong on a lot of levels and doesn't stand too much scrutiny.
 

Polarbear

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er, because it doesn't come here, isn't needed, and the money would be better spent on improved local routes not just here but all over the country

Just because HS2 doesn’t run as far north as Newcastle, doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be built. I live on the Wirral & will gain no direct benefit from HS2 where I live, but I’m supporting HS2.

As for improving local routes, yes i agree, but we can have both. It shouldn’t be an either/or choice. True, HS2 won’t release any capacity in & around Newcastle, but there are other options for that part of the country.

You say it isn’t needed. The data I’ve seen (much of which has been posted in this thread) suggests that the capacity IS needed. On what basis do you think it isn’t needed (preferably backed up with factual information).
 

The Nomad

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er, because it doesn't come here, isn't needed, and the money would be better spent on improved local routes not just here but all over the country

You couldn't be more wrong.

HS2 is to alleviate some of the long distance journeys directly to allow local routes to increase. The biggest capacity constraint is trains at different speeds. HS2 is principally to put those high speed, limited stop services onto a dedicated faster, straighter route so that the local trains can stop more and be more frequent.

Every argument against HS2 is that we should improve the lines we have. Never mind the how (that's be done a thousand times just on here), what about when? Should we shut, say, the ECML for X number of years so we can add an extra track in both directions, change all the bridges, level crossings, tunnels, signals, points, OHLE, straighten the slower bits, add extra platforms to stations? Never mind that you'll still have to evict and demolish houses next to the railway line.

Why not build those extra lines away from the current lines so they don't disrupt them?

Network Rail is already doing small incremental improvements, but the main lines are full. There can be no major improvements to local routes till long distance routes are sorted. Meanwhile I would mandate that all longer distance trains should be longer (looking at you Cross Country and TPE (get on with it). But once trains are longer and ERTMS is active, there is no magical capacity godmother without building more track.

There is no alternative.
 

Railwaysceptic

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Should we shut, say, the ECML for X number of years so we can add an extra track in both directions, change all the bridges, level crossings, tunnels, signals, points, OHLE, straighten the slower bits, add extra platforms to stations? Never mind that you'll still have to evict and demolish houses next to the railway line.
South of Darlington the ECML does not need upgrading. Between Darlington and Edinburgh, it most certainly does.
 

The Ham

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Network Rail is already doing small incremental improvements, but the main lines are full. There can be no major improvements to local routes till long distance routes are sorted. Meanwhile I would mandate that all longer distance trains should be longer (looking at you Cross Country and TPE (get on with it). But once trains are longer and ERTMS is active, there is no magical capacity godmother without building more track.

Indeed since 2009 there's been about £25bn spent on enhancements to the existing network (not HS2, new coaches or maintenance, also not most of Crossrail either). Therefore to all those who say "spend a fraction of the cost of HS2 to improve the existing network" we can say that we've spent about 1/2 (that's a fairly good fraction I'd suggest) of the current HS2 budget and still more is needed.

As to regards evidence this graph comes from the Network Rail accounts for 2027/18:
View media item 3339
 

The Ham

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Network Rail is already doing small incremental improvements, but the main lines are full. There can be no major improvements to local routes till long distance routes are sorted. Meanwhile I would mandate that all longer distance trains should be longer (looking at you Cross Country and TPE (get on with it). But once trains are longer and ERTMS is active, there is no magical capacity godmother without building more track.

Indeed since 2009 there's been about £25bn spent on enhancements to the existing network (not HS2, new coaches or maintenance, also not most of Crossrail either). Therefore to all those who say "spend a fraction of the cost of HS2 to improve the existing network" we can say that we've spent about 1/2 (that's a fairly good fraction I'd suggest) of the current HS2 budget and still more is needed.

As to regards evidence this graph comes from the Network Rail accounts for 2027/18:
View media item 3339
 

Railwaysceptic

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Um.....
Werrington Junction north of Peterborough; Newark Flat Crossing; Doncaster station; 2/3 tracking between Huntingdon and Peterborough; 2 track section from Woolmer Green to Digswell.
To those of us who live in the real world, none of your list is creating a major problem and the ECML works very well day after day. I repeat my point, south of Darlington the ECML does not need upgrading. That vast fortunes could be spent to secure improvements does not mean it's necessary.
 

liam456

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To those of us who live in the real world, none of your list is creating a major problem and the ECML works very well day after day. I repeat my point, south of Darlington the ECML does not need upgrading. That vast fortunes could be spent to secure improvements does not mean it's necessary.
err..... Is this that "**** the South cause I think they've have it good enough" mentality again?
 

DynamicSpirit

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Not much point upgrading North of Darlington if there's no capacity for extra trains south of Darlington.

What about line speed improvements? Or separating the fast and slow trains north of Darlington so you could get faster long distance trains AND a decent commuter service to places like Morpeth? That would be of benefit even without any extra trains south of Darlington. (Actually that's starting to sound very like HS2 between London and Birmingham isn't it... ;) )
 

Comstock

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If America can build a railway from Orlando Florida to Miami without any taxpayer funding why can't we get from London to Brum without billions from the treasury.
 

Ianno87

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What about line speed improvements? Or separating the fast and slow trains north of Darlington so you could get faster long distance trains AND a decent commuter service to places like Morpeth? That would be of benefit even without any extra trains south of Darlington. (Actually that's starting to sound very like HS2 between London and Birmingham isn't it... ;) )

There is one train an hour that is fast (i.e. non-stop between Darlington and Newcastle). How much money do you think it's worth spending to knock a couple of minutes off one train per hour?
 

Ianno87

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If America can build a railway from Orlando Florida to Miami without any taxpayer funding why can't we get from London to Brum without billions from the treasury.

Because they are achieving entirely different objectives, and have vastly different scope and service outputs?

I'm guessing Florida isn't providing 18 360kph trains per hour, for starters...
 

TBY-Paul

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HS2 & NPR both stop short of York, North of York very little is planned. If rumours are true, Northern have been refused paths from Ferryhill to Newcastle to run the proposed Middlesbrough to Newcastle "Northern Connect" Service, due to the lack of capacity. So please explain how this problem will be solved. How will HS2/ NPR create extra capacity in the North East for better local services.
As I've said before, I joined this forum as a result of reading some publicity relating HS2 and how it would eventually end up reaching Newcastle (stage 3,completion date around 2044-5), with the possibility of a new "Tees Valley Interchange" along this new section. I wanted to learn, and I saw HS2 as an opportunity to not only make reaching London quicker, but it would be an opportunity to free up paths on the ECML for better local services, and possibly open/ reopen stations e.g Ferryhill.Since those early days, north of York has been completely forgotten about. Although I still support HS2, and fully understand the need for it, I'm finding it to be one big disappointment as far as the North east is concerned.
 

Bald Rick

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If America can build a railway from Orlando Florida to Miami without any taxpayer funding why can't we get from London to Brum without billions from the treasury.

That’s because America isn’t building a railway from Orlando to Miami. The railway being built is between Orlando airport and Cocoa - about 22 miles; the rest is a upgrade of existing lines within the existing footprint. I don’t know if you’ve been out that way, but it’s a barren featureless wasteland (to quote General Sir Anthony C.H. Melchett). The land for the entire 22 miles cost them about £10m. In that entire distance they only have to build a handful of bridges. It’s almost all flat, so no significant civil engineering. Hardly any neighbours to worry about, as it runs along the 528 Freeway. It is therefore rather cheap to build.

Also, unusually, the bonds that have been issued to finance the work have been granted the same status as US municipal bonds, and are therefore tax free on the interest earned. This has made them rather attractive to corporate investors. So, whilst there isn’t direct taxpayer funding, there is a little help from the state.

And even after all that, it remains the only private sector inter city railroad in North America. We’ll see how they get on.
 

Railwaysceptic

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err..... Is this that "**** the South cause I think they've have it good enough" mentality again?
I live in London so no, I don't think in that silly, jaundiced way. I'm facing the facts. There are many sections of railway that need upgrading far, far more than the southern half of the ECML.
 

Railwaysceptic

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What needs upgrading north of Darlo?
The facile answer is all that does not at present permit 100mph running. i.e. most of it! Let's turn this round. How much between Darlington and Edinburgh has a permissible speed of 100mph or more?
 

The Nomad

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What a redundant post! The evidence is the fact that the ECML works very well.
The ECML works well does it? You've missed the repeated chaos in the last month where one small part of the OHLE fails and most of the north to south network is stuffed, or are you wilfully blind? Were you at Leeds with the LNERs cancelled and a thousand people trying to cram onto a full Cross Country to Sheffield? Or the laughable full TPE to Manchester, then the full WCML to London.

The rail network barely covers demand when everything's working. There's forecast to be millions more journeys by train in the decades to come - where's that capacity going?

There is one train an hour that is fast (i.e. non-stop between Darlington and Newcastle). How much money do you think it's worth spending to knock a couple of minutes off one train per hour?

For the love of God. HS2 IS ABOUT CAPACITY.
 

EM2

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Oh dear. Another empty sneer from someone who can't argue their case.
Not at all. I'll issue you the same challenge as I did to others regarding the WCML.
Download the Timetable Planning Rules and the Engineering Access Statement from the Network Rail website.
Open up Real Time Trains for a whole day's movements at Finsbury Park. And then do the same for Peterborough and Doncaster.
Get some graph paper.
Plot all those movements on a graph, following all the rules, and then show us the results.
If you can find capacity, apply for a very well paid job in operational planning management.
 

Bald Rick

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The facile answer is all that does not at present permit 100mph running. i.e. most of it! Let's turn this round. How much between Darlington and Edinburgh has a permissible speed of 100mph or more?

A significant majority between Darlo and the border is 100mph+. I haven’t done the maths but it looks like over 80%.
 

RLBH

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HS2 is to alleviate some of the long distance journeys directly to allow local routes to increase. The biggest capacity constraint is trains at different speeds. HS2 is principally to put those high speed, limited stop services onto a dedicated faster, straighter route so that the local trains can stop more and be more frequent.
I can understand the criticism from outside the Midlands and immediately north-west of London. HS2 won't relieve any local lines in much of northern, eastern or western England, to say nothing of Scotland or Wales.

That doesn't mean that HS2 isn't worth doing - the lines it does relieve are badly in need of it. And it doesn't mean that if it were cancelled, the money would be available to improve the critics' local lines. But it does indicate that the rail industry needs to be seen to have a plan to address lack of capacity on local lines rather than just looking like it thinks HS2 will add capacity from Wick to Penzance, get all the lorries off the roads, and solve global warming, in a single stroke.
 
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