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West Coast Partnership: Awarded to First Trenitalia
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LNW-GW Joint
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There will always be a number of locations on the WCML where 125mph non-tilt will not be feasible - Berkhamsted, Linslade, Wolverton, Weedon, Rugby, Atherstone, Lichfield, Rugeley, Norton Bridge, Whitmore and so on.
If intermediate stretches are allowed 125 we will end up with a saw-tooth speed profile rather than the current rather smooth one.
If improvements need infrastructure changes, it will take time and money.
What happens about TASS (ie ATP)? That's what allows 390s to exceed 110mph as well as tilt.
The HS2 programme might fund changes north of Crewe/Wigan, but not south of there.
We need to know what upgrades the franchise will fund, otherwise who pays?
Or is that where the "Partnership" bit kicks in?
If intermediate stretches are allowed 125 we will end up with a saw-tooth speed profile rather than the current rather smooth one.
If improvements need infrastructure changes, it will take time and money.
What happens about TASS (ie ATP)? That's what allows 390s to exceed 110mph as well as tilt.
The HS2 programme might fund changes north of Crewe/Wigan, but not south of there.
We need to know what upgrades the franchise will fund, otherwise who pays?
Or is that where the "Partnership" bit kicks in?
Still have proper open cups in 1st class
I wouldn't know (mostly as I don't drink coffee, although I do frequent first class from time to time - only ever with a valid ticket)
I’m beginning to hope Virgin can pull off a second challenge and get a re run, given by all accounts the current proposals commit to spending a fortune on new trains & infrastructure upgrades only to deliver slower journeys at inferior ride quality. merely satisfying DFT’s seats per hour computer model .
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Do you know that Virgin proposed anything different, though?
The thing about the WCML these days is that Virgin the first time round have got it near exactly where it should be. All it really needs is to be rid of the Voyagers (no more diesels under the wires or in Euston) and a bit more capacity (a complete end to short trains south of Crewe). This seems to be pretty much what First/TI have bid.
HS2 is the next big jump.
Not for sure, I was going by their previous proposals of a fleet of shorter Pendolinos to eliminate Voyager operation under the wires aside from the Chester/ north wales services, on which capacity isn’t a overwhelming problem and properly refurbished Voyagers could manage until HS2 opens, around which time a decision on the best available replacement could be made .
That was much closer in time to the production of the last Pendolino coaches and when there wasn't an off the shelf 125mph EMU available though
thenorthern
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With HS2 for the "classic compatible" trains it will be interesting to see if they are going to be built with tilt function as after phase one is complete other than services to London they would effectively be slower than existing stock for journeys on existing track.
All of this though is pure speculation as if HS2 is on time the first phase won't be open for another 7 years, even if HS2 is built I can't see it being completed on time as a it is a government project.
All of this though is pure speculation as if HS2 is on time the first phase won't be open for another 7 years, even if HS2 is built I can't see it being completed on time as a it is a government project.
syorksdeano
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Just thinking about the first class lounge at Preston for a moment. Couldn't they move Upper Crust/pub further down the platform and use that as the first class lounge?
That way you would have both waiting rooms separated by the toilets, and the first class lounge would be easier to find
That way you would have both waiting rooms separated by the toilets, and the first class lounge would be easier to find
I think it has been officially announced that there will not be tilting trains for HS2 due to weight and cost issues.
krus_aragon
Established Member
Can you recall where/when this was officially announced? It seems to have passed me by.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I'm not sure it has - I'm sure Alstom's bid included tilt?
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
I believe a requirement to tilt was not in the ITT, just journey time capability between major centres.
HS2 Ltd's maximum speed specification for HS2 seems to rule a tilting design out, as it would force lower speeds.
But that's not to say the bidders will not offer a tilt solution as an option.
Alstom at least should be able to do that.
No decision has yet been made as to preferred bidder.
If, as is hinted in some previous posts, the CAF 397 is the basis for the new (pre-HS2) WCML trains, I hope the ride quality is better than the 100mph CAF 195/331 design.
Having experienced both types of unit I can't see that being acceptable in a 125mph inter-city train - it's both noisy and bumpy.
CAF also do not have a bi-mode version of their UK-specific models.
Id think your right , the whole environmentalist and recently increasing anti diesel campaigns now appear very big business compared with 2001 when voyagers entered service
All sounds rather baffling. IF it is that the new operator is to put money into infrastructure to get some 110mph sections up to 125mph non tilt, would it not just make more sense for more money be paid out for new tilting trains which don't require alterations to infrastructure?
Then again, maybe the first option is more about future proofing for after HS2 is running? I.e. a future for the classic WCML with no committment needed for future tilt due to sectiins being improved to 125?
krus_aragon
Established Member
Thanks. I had my wires crossed and was thinking of the Voyager replacements. As I read it, that document is discussing Classic-Compatible trains for HS2, which the DfT assume will not tilt.
The announced Bi-modes and EMUs aren't the Classic-Compatibles, though. They're due to be delivered well before HS2 arrives. The DfT's intentions for the C-C stock might indicate they're amenable to non-tilt stock for the Voyager replacements too. But if they are, then the stock will also lose time on the EPS areas south of Lichfield on the WCML (which Classic-Compatible stock will bypass on HS2). I'll let those with wiser heads (and more on-hand experience) discuss whether that is practical with the current timetable or not.
How much do VT actually waste on fuel for under wired sections Vs using the electricity already supplied along the overheads?
Figures seem to suggest each engine burns just under 1 litre per mile
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
This thread from 7 years ago discussed Voyager performance, and seems to suggest that Voyagers use about 3 times as much energy (CO2 equivalent per passenger km) as Pendolinos do. Unfortunately the various links to original sources quoted in that thread don't seem to work any more so it's hard to check the figures. Several people there claiming that, for energy efficiency, Voyagers are amongst the worst (most inefficient) trains on the UK network, whereas Pendolinos are amongst the best.
A UK gauge tilting train will always be a bespoke product, so in the long run it might make financial sense to do the upgrades rather than fund the development of the trains. North of Wigan the future is non-tilting anyway with HS2, so ultimately everyone travelling on the line will benefit from non tilt speed increases.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
See the rolling stock thread for a reply.
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WatcherZero
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Tbh government should be paying. This new Partnership arrangement eschews a traditional franchise premium profile in favour of something more akin to revenue sharing with First currently forecasting they will be making an average profit of £50m per year both before and after the management contract kicks in while the government will be taking around £250m per year in premiums, new rolling stock aside the franchise has only pledged £32m on stations and infrastructure (which will be spread pretty thin as they are promising a couple of new first class lounges, expanding waiting room capacity at most stations and 900 more car parking spaces) and £117m (£2m per Set) on Pendolino refurbishment including replacing all seats with the Voyager replacements providing around 10% more services per year by the middle of the pre-hs2 section.
Governments going to be raking the money in and doesn't seem to be allowing much of it to flow back. (at the moment the franchise has a margin of 5.2 to 5.7% and that will be reducing to 3-5%. It makes a profit of £60m per year at moment and that falls slightly to £50m, interestingly Stagecoach forecast same profit margin as First-Trenitalia 90% revenue share going to Dft under direct award extension today and 80% if they won the West Coast Partnership franchise according to Stagecoaches 2018 financial results)
Governments going to be raking the money in and doesn't seem to be allowing much of it to flow back. (at the moment the franchise has a margin of 5.2 to 5.7% and that will be reducing to 3-5%. It makes a profit of £60m per year at moment and that falls slightly to £50m, interestingly Stagecoach forecast same profit margin as First-Trenitalia 90% revenue share going to Dft under direct award extension today and 80% if they won the West Coast Partnership franchise according to Stagecoaches 2018 financial results)
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TrainTube
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I thought quite a lot of people went to Glasgow on the train, but I guess your right that the stations they call at are important. The Glasgow service via Trent Valley doesn't need to stop at Crewe though because the Glasgow via Birmingham service goes direct from Crewe.
TrainTube
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I meant Poulton not Lancaster
TrainTube
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I meant Poulton
If we assume 5.5% margin then before management contract £50 million would require revenue of £0.9bn and to get what Virgin have now (£60 million) £1.1bn. On current (~40 million passengers) that's an average ticket cost of £22.50 (£45 return) rising to £27.50 (£55 return), some of that will be down to inflation and the extra services, however the existing services will need to also see growth.
However for it to all be down to extra growth in existing services to hit the higher target by 2025 there'd be a need for 4.1% growth per year. Last year Virgin saw 3.1% without really changing much. As such with those extra services and improvements to the fleet then such growth could be possible.
However unless First mess up big time they don't have the pressure to hit those growth figures, in that they have an income and any extra growth just means that they have more income. Rather than a traditional franchise where they could make big losses of they don't hit targets.
During management contract if we assume 4% then that's £1.25bn and £1.5bn to earn £50 million and £60 million. That's where it's going to bite if they don't get the growth hoped for.
WatcherZero
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Pretty close estimate, the franchise had revenue of £1.1bn in 2017-2018.
Really financially its akin to the Northern no-growth franchise (though there is a 10% capacity increase they don't seem to be expecting any significant revenue growth and likely the growth would just be offsetting the increased costs of renewing franchise assets and fleet growth as well as pretty hefty environmental targets for the franchise to do with Co2 reduction and reduced water usage)
Really financially its akin to the Northern no-growth franchise (though there is a 10% capacity increase they don't seem to be expecting any significant revenue growth and likely the growth would just be offsetting the increased costs of renewing franchise assets and fleet growth as well as pretty hefty environmental targets for the franchise to do with Co2 reduction and reduced water usage)
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scouseyb123
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Just hope they don’t start cutting staff to save on the wage bill and to increase their profit margins...
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