Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

The Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has today (Wednesday 21 August 2019) published the terms of reference and timetable for an independent review into the High Speed 2 (HS2) project.

Douglas Oakervee, who has built up considerable knowledge on a wide range of major projects over the course of his 60 year career, will lead the review and will work with Lord Berkeley as his deputy. They will be supported by a panel of experts, bringing together a range of perspectives from business, academia and the transport sector to ensure an independent, thorough and objective assessment of the project. Panellists will each be consulted on the report’s conclusions.

The terms of reference published today confirm that the independently-led government review will look at whether and how HS2 should proceed, using all existing evidence on the project to consider:

its benefits and impacts
affordability and efficiency
deliverability and scope
its phasing, including its relationship with Northern Powerhouse Rail
A final report will be sent to the Secretary of State, with oversight from the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer, by the autumn. The report will inform the government’s decisions on next steps for the project. Limited, largely preparatory works, on the project will continue in parallel with the report’s work.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said:

The Prime Minister has been clear that transport infrastructure has the potential to drive economic growth, redistribute opportunity and support towns and cities across the UK, but that investments must be subject to continuous assessment of their costs and benefits.

That’s why we are undertaking this independent and rigorous review of HS2.

Douglas Oakervee and his expert panel will consider all the evidence available, and provide the department with clear advice on the future of the project.

Douglas Oakervee said:

The Prime Minister has asked me to lead this important review into the HS2 programme. I looking forward to working with my deputy, Lord Berkeley, to advise the government on how and whether to progress with HS2, based on all existing evidence.

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kristiang85 said:

It should have been reviewed ages ago; it is good project management practice, when circumstances change or the budget is breached. We are now effectively at a point of no return where to continue would use an inordinate amount of funding/resources for not a comparable benefit, but to stop would make us a complete laughing stock and will have wasted tens of millions. If not hundreds.

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kristiang85 said:

It should have been reviewed ages ago; it is good project management practice, when circumstances change or the budget is breached. We are now effectively at a point of no return where to continue would use an inordinate amount of funding/resources for not a comparable benefit, but to stop would make us a complete laughing stock and will have wasted tens of millions. If not hundreds.

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CeeJ said:

Government press release:


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-independent-review-into-hs2-programme

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Purpose
The Prime Minister has stated his wish to review “whether and how we proceed” with HS2 ahead of the ‘Notice to Proceed’ decision for Phase 1 (London-West Midlands) due by the end of 2019. The review will assemble and test all the existing evidence in order to allow the Prime Minister, the Secretary of State for Transport and the government to make properly-informed decisions on the future of Phases 1 and 2 of the project, including the estimated cost and schedule position.

For the whole HS2 project, the review should rigorously examine and state its view on:

• whether HS2 Ltd is in a position to deliver the project effectively, taking account of its performance to date and any other relevant information
• the full range of benefits from the project, including but not limited to:
  • capacity changes both for services to cities and towns on HS2 and which will not be on HS2
  • connectivity
  • economic transformation including whether the scheme will promote inclusive growth and regional rebalancing
  • environmental benefits, in particular for carbon reduction in line with net zero commitments
  • the risk of delivery of these and other benefits, and whether there are alternative strategic transport schemes which could achieve comparable benefits in similar timescales
• the full range of costs of the project, including but not limited to:
  
  • whether HS2 Ltd’s latest estimates of costs and schedule are realistic and are comparable to other UK infrastructure
  • why any cost estimates or schedules have changed since the most recent previous baselines
  • whether there are opportunities for efficiencies
  • the cost of disruption to rail users during construction
  • whether there are trade-offs between cost and schedule; and whether there are opportunities for additional commercial returns for the taxpayer through, for example, developments around stations, to offset costs
  • what proceeding with Phase 1 means in terms of overall affordability, and what this means in terms of what would be required to deliver the project within the current funding envelope for the project as a whole
• whether the assumptions behind the business case, for instance on passenger numbers and train frequencies, are realistic, including the location and interconnectivity of the stations with other transport systems, and the implications of potential changes in services to cities and towns which are on the existing main lines but will not be on HS2
• for the project as a whole, how much realistic potential there is for cost reductions in the scheme as currently planned through changes to its scope, planned phasing or specification, including but not limited to:
  
  • reductions in speed
  • making Old Oak Common the London terminus, at least for a period
  • building only Phase 1
  • combining Phases 1 and 2a
  • different choices or phasing of Phase 2b, taking account of the interfaces with Northern Powerhouse Rail
• the direct cost of reprioritising, cancelling or de-scoping the project, including but not limited to: contractual penalties; the risk of legal action; sunk costs; remediation costs; supply chain impact; and an estimate of how much of the money already spent, for instance on the purchase of land and property, could be recouped
• whether and how the project could be reprioritised; in particular, whether and, if so how, Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) (including the common sections with HS2Phase 2b) could be prioritised over delivering the southern sections of HS2
• whether any improvements would benefit the integration of HS2, NPR and other rail projects in the north of England or Midlands
• any lessons from the project for other major projects

Review team and support
The review will be chaired by Doug Oakervee. The deputy chair will be Lord Berkeley. There will also be a panel consisting of Michele Dix, Stephen Glaister, Patrick Harley, Sir Peter Hendy, Andrew Sentance, Andy Street, John Cridland and Tony Travers. Each will focus on a specific area of interest; they will feed in to and be consulted on the report’s conclusions, without having a right of veto in the event that consensus cannot be reached.

Support will be provided by the Department for Transport. Sufficient support will be needed to allow a searching and rigorous review in a relatively short time. The review team will be provided with any papers and persons they request. Undertakings of confidentiality will be entered into with the Chair, Deputy Chair, panel, and others as necessary.

Reporting and publication
The review will report to the Secretary of State for Transport with oversight from the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer. It should produce a written report suitable for publication.

Timing
The review should submit its final report in autumn 2019.

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ijmad said:

This is nothing more than a vanity exercise by Boris Johnson to give him more talking points for Tory voters if he's forced in to a general election in Autumn.

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Masboroughlad said:

Just heard this. I feel sick to the stomach. I have a horrible feeling that it will be scrapped. If not scrapped in totality, the North of Birmingham phase stands little chance.

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YorkshireBear said:

The BBC article states 7 Billion has already been spent so its not just hundreds of millions.

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• for the project as a whole, how much realistic potential there is for cost reductions in the scheme as currently planned through changes to its scope, planned phasing or specification, including but not limited to:
  
  • reductions in speed
  • making Old Oak Common the London terminus, at least for a period
  • building only Phase 1
  • combining Phases 1 and 2a
  • different choices or phasing of Phase 2b, taking account of the interfaces with Northern Powerhouse Rail

The government is launching a review of high-speed rail link HS2 - with a “go or no-go" decision to be made by the end of the year, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has said.

The review will consider whether and how the project to connect London, the Midlands and northern England should proceed, looking at costs and benefits.

Mr Shapps refused to rule out scrapping it entirely.

He said it was "responsible" to see whether HS2 was "going to stack up".

Phase 1 of the development between London and Birmingham is due to open at the end of 2026, with the second phase to Leeds and Manchester scheduled for completion by 2032-33.

It is designed to carry trains capable of travelling at 250mph.

• HS2 rail project cost 'could rise by £30bn'
• Is the HS2 rail project in trouble?

When asked about the billions already spent on the project, Mr Shapps said: "Just because you've spent a lot of money on something does not mean you should plough more and more money into it."

He said ministers were asking the reviewers "just give us the facts."

"Go and find out all the information that's out there… genuinely what it would cost to complete this project, and then we'll be in a much better position to make that decision - go or no-go by the end of the year."

The review will be chaired by Douglas Oakervee, a civil engineer who served as chairman of the Crossrail project between 2005 and 2009.

Lord Berkeley, another civil engineer who worked on the construction of the Channel Tunnel, will act as his deputy.

A final report will be sent to the government in the autumn.

Rising cost
During the Conservative Party leadership campaign Boris Johnson said he would not scrap plans for the new rail link, but did express "anxieties about the business case".

Previous governments have argued the new route would boost the economy, but concerns have been raised over the cost and route.

In July, the current chairman of the project reportedly warned that the total cost could rise by £30bn - up from the current budget of £56bn.

Labour peer Lord Adonis, a former transport secretary who worked as an infrastructure adviser to Theresa May, said the review was "as stupid as you can get" and would "screw Birmingham and the North".

He tweeted that it would become "a massive bun fight, while the transport department runs for cover and HS2 Ltd is paralysed by indecision".

The review will look into:

• cost estimates so far
• opportunities for efficiency savings
• the environmental impact, focusing specifically on net zero carbon commitment
• whether the economic and business case made for HS2 is accurate
• the added costs of cancelling the project or changing its scope, such as combining phases 1 and 2a (Birmingham to Crewe), reducing the speed or building only phase 1

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centraltrains said:

I struggle to see how it won't be cancelled or drastically scaled back from this.
Boris Johnson has always been very Anti-HS2. It would make him look extremely hypocritical if he then went on to push it through. Although he is a politician and probably use to that, I think this is perhaps one step too far. This announcement scares me a lot because the local commuter capacity HS2 will release in the Birmingham area is urgently needed.

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centraltrains said:

I struggle to see how it won't be cancelled or drastically scaled back from this.

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Andrew*Debbie said:

Among other things they are going to look at having HS2 terminate at Old Oak Common.

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irish_rail said:

Bye bye HS2 and hopefully bye bye to the old oak commonnstation which will slow down journeys between Paddington and the west!!! Didn't really fancy having to stop 3 minutes after leaving Paddington anyway! Good riddance.

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Andrew*Debbie said:

I especially like the reductions in speed. The idea of a 125MPH HS2 is somehow appealing. lol.

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sprinterguy said:

Ever since it was announced in late 2015 that the construction of the Lichfield - Crewe section (Phase 2a) was being accelerated to open in 2027 I've predicted that that's as far as HS2 will get. The Government can announce that they've saved "billions" on the cost of HS2 when they scrap the eastern arm, and then score political points in the north a couple of years later when they separately approve "Northern Powerhouse Rail" with an interface that allows HS2 trains to reach Leeds that way. Consultants Expedition Engineering described such a route in May this year.

The East Midlands would once again end up being overlooked and the Birmingham - Leeds via Sheffield corridor would remain the "cinderella" inter-city route (Though at least end to end demand would be lessened on the "classic" network in the long run).

I would hope that land clearance and preparatory engineering work on Phase 1 are too advanced at this stage for the cancellation of the full project to be considered feasible.

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