The government’s latest review of the £56bn High Speed 2 project formally started today with the publication of its
terms of reference and confirmation of Doug Oakervee as its chair.
This review has come straight from the top, and Boris Johnson, who has made HS2 one of his first major intervention as prime minister. Should the industry be concerned?
Actually, the signs are good. Johnson has already promised to invest in “vital infrastructure” to trigger the “beginning of a new ‘golden age’” and in Doug Oakervee he has turned to an old pal to review High Speed 2 for him. Johnson and past ICE president Oakervee go way back to when the pair united to work up proposals for a Thames Estuary airport, the latter using his world-renowned experience of leading construction of Hong Kong’s island airport in the 1908s. It’s clearly significant that Oakervee also had a spell as chair of HS2 promoter HS2 Ltd and indeed told the annual
George Bradshaw lecture back in 2013 that it is not the project that is wrong, but the government’s models for cost/benefit analyses of schemes of the scale of HS2.
This, for the sake of the record, is what Oakervee told the George Bradshaw lecture, back in 2013: “It is clear that we have not yet developed an economic model that captures the benefits of a scheme of the size of HS2. The government’s models really need to be re-examined,” he said, adding that without care any major infrastructure project would struggle to get built.
“We’ve got to be really careful how we judge these things,” he said, noting that many other road and rail projects – including HS1 – have failed the economic test but still been built. “A lot of the railways built in the 1800s wouldn’t have passed the test either, he said.
How Oakervee’s review will dovetail with current chair Allan Cook’s own internal costs review has still not been made clear entirely clear; although there is a clear hint in that the terms of reference do call on Oakervee to recommend "whether HS2 Ltd is in a position to deliver the project effectively, taking account of its performance to date and any other relevant information".
So Oakervee will no doubt be looking at his successor's efforts to put a lid on costs; not least by being open to re-phasing suggestions. The terms of reference specifically call on Oakervee to look at "making Old Oak Common the London terminus, at least for a period". This would significantly reduce costs in the short term and also de-risk the initial stages and is something that Cook is known to be already looking at - or at least
been pointed to look at by another ex-chair Sir Terry Morgan. It is also already planned for with the station designer's telling
New Civil Engineer's Future of Rail conference in June that it could easily handle the extra passenger footfall. It feels like there is a positive spin to be had there. (Athough if you want to really understand why terminating at Old Oak Common is actually a really bad idea from former Hs2 chief engineer Andrew McNaughton then listen to Episode Three of
The Engineers Collective podcast from
New Civil Engineer)
And don’t forget that alongside these reviews fervent work is going on with HS2's procurement team to re-engage with the industry in the quest to reduce costs, with tendering processes for
Birmingham Curzon Street,
railway systems and
tunnel fit-out all being halted and restarted in recent weeks.
Finally, the input of Oakervee’s deputy chair in reviewing the project Lord Berkeley is also not to be ignored –
Berkeley is a long term critic of the project, but his objections are founded more in that the money could be better spent elsewhere.
He and Oakervee seem likely to be at loggerheads on this, and Berkeley's inclusion in the review seems to be about bringing your opponents inside the tent. It is a wise strategy and Oakervee will benefit from his input.
But ultimately Oakervee is the review chair and it would surely be a volte face of extraordinary front for him to come out against the project he has previously supported with such vigour.
To the extent that it seems certain that Oakervee will make a better case for HS2 and a very public announcement to proceed will come from Johnson later in the Autumn.