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HS2: RailUK Opinion Poll: what do you think will happen?

What do you think will be the result of the HS2 review?

  • Scrapped altogether

    Votes: 81 16.0%
  • London to Birmingham, more-or-less current spec

    Votes: 78 15.4%
  • London to Crewe, more-or-less current spec

    Votes: 143 28.2%
  • Phase 1 in full, no exceptions

    Votes: 85 16.8%
  • A vastly reduced/fudged compromise

    Votes: 92 18.1%
  • Another option, discussed in thread

    Votes: 28 5.5%

  • Total voters
    507
  • Poll closed .
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PR1Berske

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Influenced by this post:
Maybe we should run a poll to see what people think is the most likely outcome.

1 Scrap altogether
2 London to Birmingham only
3 London to Birmingham/Crewe only
4 The full monty with an open cheque book
5 options 2 or 3 but at existing TGV speeds and alignment/route tweeks

In this thread:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ndent-review-into-hs2-programme.189492/page-8



I have started this opinion poll.

Now all polls are snapshots and not scientific, so let's not get too analytical. That said, it will be interesting to see where things stand here.

I've chosen to frame the question as "What do you think will happen?" rather than "What do you want to happen?" as the newly commenced review allows us to think about the likely outcome and consequences.
 
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muz379

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I think we will see operation speed phased back , phase 1 and 2a so the section from London to Birmingham and then onto Crewe constructed , the the phase 2b continuations on to Manchester city centre and Manchester airport constructed but the east midlands and leeds parts of phase 2b put on an indefinite delay . With upgrades to the MML , ECML and Trans Pennine upgrades getting a boost to placate those in Midlands and West Yorkshire whilst spending less than building a whole new railway .
 

class26

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I think phase 1 will go ahead. Too much has been spent already but maybe with lower speed (300 / 320 km) . Phase 2 a to Crewe will also more than likely go ahead, it is relatively simple then Northern Powerhouse Rail will take over in some way to manchester and on to Leeds. Yes, a very roundabout route to Leeds but would save phase 2b
 

RLBH

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962
London to Birmingham is essential, cancelling it would cause major problems for London commuters so of course it'll go ahead. Extension on to Crewe allows the government to claim that they're doing something in The North with minimum effort, so that'll go ahead too.

I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the Birmingham north-to-west curve, Birmingham Interchange, or both are dropped. The design speed will probably also be dropped from 400kph to 320kph or so - which will make no difference in practical terms, but remove one line of criticism - and a cheaper form of track used.
 

Geezertronic

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Unless there is a viable alternative that solves all of the issues that HS2 intends to resolve, it should proceed as originally planned
 

The Ham

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I think we will see operation speed phased back , phase 1 and 2a so the section from London to Birmingham and then onto Crewe constructed , the the phase 2b continuations on to Manchester city centre and Manchester airport constructed but the east midlands and leeds parts of phase 2b put on an indefinite delay . With upgrades to the MML , ECML and Trans Pennine upgrades getting a boost to placate those in Midlands and West Yorkshire whilst spending less than building a whole new railway .

While I mostly agree, what I think will happen is that the plan will be to build Phases 1 & 2a with a further review in spring 2022 as to if the line to Manchester should go ahead (so if no election before then that too isn't an election issue). Rail growth would have jumped again following the introduction of the new ICWC trains and services so the review will give that the go ahead, for opening in 2030ish.

Once phase 1 opens and people start to see how it will benefit them with real world journeys, then expect the political pressure to mount for the paused Eastern Arm to be built. Chances are, following a review in late 2020's, it would open circa 2040.

Once phase 1 is given the go ahead and when more so once it opens a lot of the opposition is likely to diminish further as those who are impacted along that section will be less bothered. It's already started to happen as those most impacted have had their houses purchased, resulting in fewer people directly impacted.

If course any scaling back would be welcomed by those opposed to it, however unless it's an outright stop (& even then I'm not so sure) it is likely to come back again, at least in a fairly familiar form (there's likely to be changes to where it goes through the East Midlands and it may go further North than currently planned).

Whilst this is going on, in exchange for pausing it, expect more electrification (Trans Pennines and MML) and other upgrades. Which will have happened and then HS2 will still happen.
 

ABB125

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I think there will be a few changes to the design, mainly based around a reduced speed (it it's anything lower than 200mph though I will be really disappointed). There will be more integration with NPR, perhaps with the latter project taking over some sections of HS2. I think the eastern arm may be reduced in scope, perhaps new build to where HS2 crosses the existing Birmingham to Derby line, and then new build between Sheffield and Leeds as part of NPR. Then, once everyone realises how good high speed rail is, the missing link between near Kingsbury and Sheffield can be filled in as part of a scheme which includes a new London to north route via the east.
 

Eddd

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8 Apr 2018
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54
Options 2 and 4 seem equivalent. I would vote 'Proceed with entire route as planned, minor modifications'
 

Alex McKenna

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My bet is on Old Oak Common to Birmingham, and slower speed, with passive provision for Manchester arm, but not Leeds.
 

Bletchleyite

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I think there will be a few changes to the design, mainly based around a reduced speed (it it's anything lower than 200mph though I will be really disappointed)

Why? To me a 186mph (300km/h) Euro-LGV is the most appropriate thing to build - IOW, the same as HS1. That will be hugely cheaper than the "super high speed" stuff (as the components are all off the shelf and well-proven across Europe) and will deliver nigh-on all the benefits.
 

DarloRich

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I have started this opinion poll.

you will be loving this...................

As i said on the other thread: This is merely kicking the can down the road beyond brexit and beyond a probable general election in the Autumn.

BTW - if HS2 is cancelled very little of the proposed money will be spent on railway infrastructure and the lack of capacity on the WCML south wont vanish. But then you aren't worried about that are you?
 
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class26

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What is the point of delivering any part of HS2 if it's going to be restricted speed?

depends on what it is restricted to. I would say a max of 320 kph which is more or less what other high speed lines run at. The difference in time saved between that and 360 kph is small but the energy used is large. Remember that energy will be effect every train, every day. The savings could be huge in ongoing running costs
 

Ianno87

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Why no option for all phases more or less in full?

I suspect the options have been chosen to attempt to skew the result. I.e. three very similar options (Birmingham / Phase 1 / Crewe) to 'split the vote' against the scrapping altogether option.
 

Bletchleyite

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What is the point of delivering any part of HS2 if it's going to be restricted speed?

The main purpose of HS2 is to provide an extra pair of fast lines on the south WCML for reasons of capacity. It's cheaper to do this away from the main WCML through the middle of nowhere than through a load of towns, a bit like the direct Weedon line that doesn't run via Northampton. Some of the benefits would still be realised even if it was a 125mph line like the present WCML, though to me the best balance is a 300km/h conventional Euro-LGV like HS1.
 

DarloRich

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I suspect the options have been chosen to attempt to skew the result. I.e. three very similar options (Birmingham / Phase 1 / Crewe) to 'split the vote' against the scrapping altogether option.

You wouldn't be suggesting that the proposer might have an agenda would you? I wont have it.
 

The Planner

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Whilst i agree the options are bizarre and not thought through at all, my two penneth based on what I have said elsewhere...
Phase 1, Euston to Birmingham spur, but the link at Handsacre will get killed off so Stafford, Stoke and Macclesfield get nothing. Phase 2A becomes 1A and it opens to Crewe. Phase 2 to the North East is massively curtailed, it will drop out on the Derby lines at Kingsbury or it gets to Toton, no further. Phase 2 to the North West gets renamed to NPR so it shifts the money on to someone else's books. Through station at Piccadilly so London Leeds is via Manchester but NPRs problem, not HS2. Some sort of new massive NPR parkway station Newton le Willows way. All trains to Scotland come off at Crewe with no link to the WCML further north.
 

DarloRich

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Some sort of new massive NPR parkway station Newton le Willows way. All trains to Scotland come off at Crewe with no link to the WCML further north.

What is NPR? Northern Powerhouse?

BTW i have long felt the bit beyond Birmingham to be very unlikely to happen
 
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GoneSouth

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What is the point of delivering any part of HS2 if it's going to be restricted speed?
To increase capacity to suck more investment and jobs into the southeast, thus accelerating the bleeding of talent from north to south.

Whilst I was always against the idea, it’s been promised for years and physically started and should be completed. If it isn’t completed it’s a massive kick in the ******** for everyone in greater Manchester and Yorkshire, and will demonstrate the contempt this government shows to the north.

If on the other hand the project is ‘paused’ beyond Birmingham and the funding is redirected to HS3/NPR and other big rail projects to improve connectivity/capacity within the north, I wouldn’t be too annoyed. This will tick boxes for improving capacity between Birmingham and London, and making a massive difference to travel in the north.

I seriously doubt this will happen and the likelihood is that the north will be shafted again. They should just be grateful their pacers have been replaced (well, nearly) and should be happy to trundle around in vastly overcrowded 2 car 150s at 20 mph... who the hell do these serfs think they are making demands on their southern masters!!!

Then again, back to my first opinion that this should never have gone ahead in the first place. We’re all paying somewhere north of 70bn quid for this thing but most won’t ever get to use it. Where’s the benefit for Bristol, Cardiff, Plymouth, Leicester, Hull, Oxford (just a random selection of hundreds of places I could have used). It’s not like a motorway with multiple exits all the way along its length that most people might use on their way through to somewhere else, this thing is point to point Euston to Brum and won’t be used by anyone other than those travelling specifically from Euston to Brum. Changing stations in Brum to connect with new street service will wipe out any time savings immediately so why not just make your life easier and use the existing route.

Phew this thing is as complicated as brexit :E
 

camflyer

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My bet is on Old Oak Common to Birmingham, and slower speed, with passive provision for Manchester arm, but not Leeds.

Stopping at Old Oak Common makes no sense as it would require an expensive redesign of the station to make it a terminus (even a temporary one), it would make connections with HS1 harder, the redevelopment work has already started at Euston and would dump a load of passengers into a part of London where they don't want to be.

Otherwise, a reduction in the speed is sensible and I can see the eastern spur being de-prioritised as there is more political capital to be made in the Liverpool/Manchester area.
 

DarloRich

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To increase capacity to suck more investment and jobs into the southeast, thus accelerating the bleeding of talent from north to south.

Come and have a trip into Euston at peak time. Ram packed 12 car trains. Come and stand at MKC and count the number of trains passing and figure out how you are going to force even more into the available space.

I don't need 21 car trains into Leeds.

Whilst I was always against the idea, it’s been promised for years and physically started and should be completed. If it isn’t completed it’s a massive kick in the ******** for everyone in greater Manchester and Yorkshire, and will demonstrate the contempt this government shows to the north.

If on the other hand the project is ‘paused’ beyond Birmingham and the funding is redirected to HS3/NPR and other big rail projects to improve connectivity/capacity within the north, I wouldn’t be too annoyed. This will tick boxes for improving capacity between Birmingham and London, and making a massive difference to travel in the north.

That isnt going to happen. Are posters here really that naive? Of course Boris will spin a few crumbs of investment in Manchester as MASSIVE for the north ( but not, you know, the actual North) but really he will be extracting the urine and people will lap it up.

Then again, back to my first opinion that this should never have gone ahead in the first place. We’re all paying somewhere north of 70bn quid for this thing but most won’t ever get to use it. Where’s the benefit for Bristol, Cardiff, Plymouth, Leicester, Hull, Oxford (just a random selection of hundreds of places I could have used). It’s not like a motorway with multiple exits all the way along its length that most people might use on their way through to somewhere else, this thing is point to point Euston to Brum and won’t be used by anyone other than those travelling specifically from Euston to Brum. Changing stations in Brum to connect with new street service will wipe out any time savings immediately so why not just make your life easier and use the existing route.

This is tiresome because HS2 doesn't serve me in the way i want it worthless. I never use Heathrow but can see how a further run way would be beneficial in all kinds of ways. But then it is easier just to play the northern chip shop on the shoulder card isnt it?
 

Facing Back

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All phases in full - even though there is no voting option for it. The case is too compelling
 

DPWH

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I think we will see operation speed phased back , phase 1 and 2a so the section from London to Birmingham and then onto Crewe constructed , the the phase 2b continuations on to Manchester city centre and Manchester airport constructed but the east midlands and leeds parts of phase 2b put on an indefinite delay . With upgrades to the MML , ECML and Trans Pennine upgrades getting a boost to placate those in Midlands and West Yorkshire whilst spending less than building a whole new railway .

And subsequently those upgrades to the MML, ECML and TP will be postponed and then quietly dropped.
 

Glenn1969

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Cancel HS2 and build NPR and the North will be happy. I think they will build HS2 Phase 1 and NPR but to lower speed
 
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