Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

Howardh · 22 Aug 2019

quantinghome said:
Walking from Euston to St. Pancras is hardly 'crossing London'; King's Cross to St. Pancras is barely crossing a road. I'll grant you Paddington is a schlep.

As for how do I know, let's see how many direct North of London Eurostar services are running... answer, zero. The infrastructure already exists for such journeys; it was built into St. Pancras international throat. Eurostar could extend services to Birmingham or Manchester or Leeds, just as they have to Amsterdam and Marseilles. But they have concluded that they aren't worth running. They offer few advantages over the relatively easy transfer already available. There is no large unmet demand for direct services. The best thing to do would be to improve the transfer between stations - better walking route, travelators, PRT etc.

Because the speed would be severely reduced? Just imagine if you could do manchester or Leeds to Paris or Amsterdam at Eurostar/HS2 speeds throughout most of the journey without being curtailed to around 100/125 for 200 miles of it!!

Should add, of course, that any delay on your first leg means you miss your connection; that might not be too significant, it could be very significant if it's the last train or you had a flight to catch in Paris or Brussels. Of course the direct train could hit delays, but at least you are still on that train and don't have to maul around findinganother.

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pt_mad · 22 Aug 2019

trebor79 said:
Well we shall see, but exponential growth in aviation is not compatible with reducing emissions. Aeroplanes are getting more efficient but that's swamped by growth in the sector. And forget electrifying commercial aviation, it's just not feasible with current technology.
Sooner or later we are all going to have to make big changes to how we live. Conveniently being able to travel cheaply by air to anywhere the world whenever we feel like is likely to be one of those things that has to change.
Governments aren't being honest about the fundamental changes that need to be made. And they will have to mandate those changes, because as you point out, personal convenience trumps other considerations for most of the population.

Thing is it's not even like we live in a country where it's not nice to visit places and travel here and do stuff. The sightseeing in the med isn't as good as Scotland imo, it's just the desire for hot weather, which we moan about when we have it day to day here!

Would it really be all that bad to have to holiday in the UK to save the planet?

6Gman · 22 Aug 2019

Mark J said:
When HS2 was originally forecast to cost £56 Billion and is now predicted to be over £100 Billion, then YES a review should happen.

Do some think it is acceptable that costs will likely double and that it should just be 'business as usual'?

"Predicted" by whom ?

matacaster · 22 Aug 2019

Bletchleyite said:
Add to the fact that Euston is in central London and OOC isn't?

Terminating at OOC would make as much sense as terminating all the Abellio Greater Anglia IC services at Stratford (the distance out, Tube/Crossrail connectivity and the idea of the development is very similar). It would become a pointless, expensive white elephant. If it isn't going to central London (or being fed into the WCML to reach Euston that way), it should be scrapped entirely.

By the way, Euston isn't "upgrading a functional railway", it's building a new station next to it. OK, we did lose P17 and P18, but they were the least used anyway.

Ah, but I suspect that the first thing most people do when they get to euston is catch a tube or tubes to their intended destination. I don't think many people think of Euston as the end of their journey. From old oak common you'd be able to catch crossrail to a good selection of destinations NS in central London.

The Ham · 22 Aug 2019

Nagora said:
That argument only goes so far. Firstly, electric aircraft are in production so maybe there's some chance of that taking off (ho ho). But the other side of it is: where does the electricity for aircraft or train come from? Not everything is clean yet.

The train is hurtling along at ground level where the air is densest. Does anyone have a link to a sensible comparison of energy per person per mile between a 400mph turboprop and a 200mph train?

Not 200mph trains, but even on the grid generation emissions from ~2010 rail (125mph) was a lot better than flying, even using class 221's are still better. That's on trains which are 30% or 40% full (the latter being intercity trains)

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pt_mad · 22 Aug 2019

matacaster said:
Ah, but I suspect that the first thing most people do when they get to euston is catch a tube or tubes to their intended destination. I don't think many people think of Euston as the end of their journey. From old oak common you'd be able to catch crossrail to a good selection of destinations NS in central London.

Nope, I think most people stroll out of Euston, around the corner by the museum, and open the door of their modestly priced apartment. :lol:

Bletchleyite · 22 Aug 2019

matacaster said:
Ah, but I suspect that the first thing most people do when they get to euston is catch a tube or tubes to their intended destination. I don't think many people think of Euston as the end of their journey. From old oak common you'd be able to catch crossrail to a good selection of destinations NS in central London.

A very large number of people walk, cycle, take a bus or take a taxi. All those options would effectively be ruled out due to distance/cost. Not to mention causing overcrowding on Crossrail.

ainsworth74 · 22 Aug 2019

matacaster said:
Ah, but I suspect that the first thing most people do when they get to euston is catch a tube or tubes to their intended destination. I don't think many people think of Euston as the end of their journey. From old oak common you'd be able to catch crossrail to a good selection of destinations NS in central London.

In which case why don't Great Anglia terminate their long distance services at Stratford? Or LNER at Finsbury Park?

Bletchleyite · 22 Aug 2019

ainsworth74 said:
In which case why don't Great Anglia terminate their long distance services at Stratford? Or LNER at Finsbury Park?

Quite. Terminating at OOC is so Barking that it might as well be most of the way to Upminster

(Which is quite near Stratford

)

pt_mad · 22 Aug 2019

Nagora said:
That argument only goes so far. Firstly, electric aircraft are in production so maybe there's some chance of that taking off (ho ho). But the other side of it is: where does the electricity for aircraft or train come from? Not everything is clean yet.

The train is hurtling along at ground level where the air is densest. Does anyone have a link to a sensible comparison of energy per person per mile between a 400mph turboprop and a 200mph train?

How long for commercial electric aircraft on a widespread basis though? 30 years? More?
The grid is going to get greener but I'm not sure aviation fuel is.
The idea is also that we cut down on travel as well as adapt to other modes. I.e. travel domestically on trains between UK mainland cities instead of flying, and going abroad a lot less. Possibly also working from home in occupations where the only thing at the office is a desk and computer and face to face meetings aren't necessarily needed.
That is what is needed to address climate change.

quantinghome · 22 Aug 2019

Nagora said:
That argument only goes so far. Firstly, electric aircraft are in production so maybe there's some chance of that taking off (ho ho). But the other side of it is: where does the electricity for aircraft or train come from? Not everything is clean yet.

The train is hurtling along at ground level where the air is densest. Does anyone have a link to a sensible comparison of energy per person per mile between a 400mph turboprop and a 200mph train?

Try google. I got this: http://www.greengauge21.net/wp-content/uploads/HSR-CarbonEmissions.pdf

Air density is just one aspect of aerodynamic drag, which is just one aspect of energy efficiency, which is just one aspect of carbon emissions. Trains have lower frontal area (due to not having wings) and travel at significantly lower speeds, so the aerodynamic drag is lower. Then electricity supplies are steadily decarbonising. So the answer is trains are much, much better for carbon emissions than flying.

mmh · 22 Aug 2019

matacaster said:
Ah, but I suspect that the first thing most people do when they get to euston is catch a tube or tubes to their intended destination. I don't think many people think of Euston as the end of their journey. From old oak common you'd be able to catch crossrail to a good selection of destinations NS in central London.

Euston is well connected by tube to the other major London terminals for onward travel, to many of the areas with large numbers of hotels, and is on the doorstep of Bloomsbury, which also has many hotels.

Old Oak Common somewhat less so.

matacaster · 22 Aug 2019

ainsworth74 said:
In which case why don't Great Anglia terminate their long distance services at Stratford? Or LNER at Finsbury Park?

Tube capacity?

Crossrail should surely be able to take the strain of some semifasts from wcml?

matacaster · 22 Aug 2019

ainsworth74 said:
In which case why don't Great Anglia terminate their long distance services at Stratford? Or LNER at Finsbury Park?

People do wish to end up in central London, but all mainline stations in London are on the peripheral owing to an act of parliament in the 19th century. So messing about on the tube, bus, walking is what happens to reach people's real destination. Surely crossrail is much quicker than the tube, old oak common will be less congested and I can't remember when I've only managed one tube to reach various destinations after arriving at kings cross.

mmh · 22 Aug 2019

matacaster said:
Tube capacity?

Crossrail should surely be able to take the strain of some semifasts from wcml?

Crossrail will supposedly be a max 10tph at Old Oak Common, nowhere near the frequency of the tube lines at Euston.

Dougal2345 · 22 Aug 2019

matacaster said:
Ah, but I suspect that the first thing most people do when they get to euston is catch a tube or tubes to their intended destination. I don't think many people think of Euston as the end of their journey. From old oak common you'd be able to catch crossrail to a good selection of destinations NS in central London.

When I travel by train to European cities, I always try and choose a hotel within easy walking distance (suitcase-dragging distance) of the station at which I'm arriving. If I'm arriving at 10pm after a long journey, the last thing I want to face up to is the challenge of navigating my way through an unfamiliar metro/tram system (I save that until after breakfast the next day, when it feels more like fun

).

mmh · 22 Aug 2019

matacaster said:
I can't remember when I've only managed one tube to reach various destinations after arriving at kings cross.

You have to be quite unlucky to have to change from King's Cross to anywhere in Central London! Other than only being on the City branch of the Northern line, it's pretty much the ideally connected station.

mmh · 22 Aug 2019

Dougal2345 said:
When I travel by train to European cities, I always try and choose a hotel within easy walking distance (suitcase-dragging distance) of the station at which I'm arriving. If I'm arriving at 10pm after a long journey, the last thing I want to face up to is the challenge of navigating my way through an unfamiliar metro/tram system (I save that until after breakfast the next day, when it feels more like fun ).

That's what taxis are for.

quantinghome · 22 Aug 2019

Howardh said:
Because the speed would be severely reduced? Just imagine if you could do manchester or Leeds to Paris or Amsterdam at Eurostar/HS2 speeds throughout most of the journey without being curtailed to around 100/125 for 200 miles of it!!

OK, let's say high speed rail would reduce a 5 hour journey to 4 hours. How much would demand increase as a result? I can't see it suddenly changing the calculus. The current Leeds-London journey is not much longer timewise than Brussels-Amsterdam. So if London-Amsterdam is viable, why not Brussels-Leeds?

Howardh said:
Should add, of course, that any delay on your first leg means you miss your connection; that might not be too significant, it could be very significant if it's the last train or you had a flight to catch in Paris or Brussels. Of course the direct train could hit delays, but at least you are still on that train and don't have to maul around finding another.

People are highly unlikely to travel a long distance to London, to then travel to Paris to catch a plane. Missed connections, yes, always a risk, but again how much demand is that really stifling?

Ianno87 · 22 Aug 2019

mmh said:
That's what taxis are for.

**Imagines the number of taxis required clogging up roads between Old Oak and Central London**

Howardh · 22 Aug 2019

quantinghome said:
OK, let's say high speed rail would reduce a 5 hour journey to 4 hours. How much would demand increase as a result? I can't see it suddenly changing the calculus.

An hour could make it faster than the plane; and much less hassle - especially if direct and priced comptitively.

Andrew*Debbie · 22 Aug 2019

mmh said:
Euston is well connected by tube to the other major London terminals for onward travel, to many of the areas with large numbers of hotels, and is on the doorstep of Bloomsbury, which also has many hotels.

It is but it depends on where you are heading.

mmh · 22 Aug 2019

Ianno87 said:
**Imagines the number of taxis required clogging up roads between Old Oak and Central London**

Indeed! Old Oak Common made sense as an additional destination to Euston, but far less so as a replacement for it.

quantinghome · 22 Aug 2019

mmh said:
Crossrail will supposedly be a max 10tph at Old Oak Common, nowhere near the frequency of the tube lines at Euston.

No it won't. The Paddington stoppers will be extended to it.

Bletchleyite · 22 Aug 2019

mmh said:
That's what taxis are for.

Bit expensive from OOC, no?

mmh · 22 Aug 2019

Andrew*Debbie said:
It is but it depends on where you are heading.

Not really. It will be on Crossrail only. That the Central line passes nearby is irrelevant if you can't change onto it. (Ignoring that the Crossrail largely just parallels the Central line through central London anyway)

mmh · 22 Aug 2019

quantinghome said:
No it won't. The Paddington stoppers will be extended to it.

I suppose that would be possible. Still doesn't change that Euston is far better connected, and far better located, than OOC will be.

quantinghome · 22 Aug 2019

Howardh said:
An hour could make it faster than the plane; and much less hassle - especially if direct and priced comptitively.

All true, but I can't see HS2 suddenly changing the economic calculus on direct services from the North of England to Paris or Brussels, let alone further afield. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see it; I would use it and find it more convenient than changing. But the fact remains that placing the Eurostar terminus at St. Pancras has made transferring very much easier, and there are some relatively simple fixes to make it easier still.

mmh · 22 Aug 2019

Bletchleyite said:
Bit expensive from OOC, no?

Well yes, another reason not to have your central London terminus not quite in central London. (Alternatively you could look on the cost of the taxi as a price worth paying to not stay in a hotel at OOC!

I'm strongly against HS2 (at least in its current form) but even I'd prefer to see it built to Euston rather than cut back.

Ianno87 · 22 Aug 2019

quantinghome said:
All true, but I can't see HS2 suddenly changing the economic calculus on direct services from the North of England to Paris or Brussels, let alone further afield. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see it; I would use it and find it more convenient than changing. But the fact remains that placing the Eurostar terminus at St. Pancras has made transferring very much easier, and there are some relatively simple fixes to make it easier still.

It would risk making HS2 overall worse in doing its 'day job' (providing an extra 18tph of capacity to and from Central London), for a minor benefit (i.e. basically saving a change of train and a slightly better journey time) to what are relatively peripheral flows between the Midlands/North and Continental Europe.

Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

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