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Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

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Bletchleyite

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Better still a fast, punctual, reliable service

Choose any two. All the well-run, Taktfahrplan-based, punctual and reliable European railways (plus DB which isn't punctual or reliable at the moment for other reasons) have plenty of intermediate padding.

You can up the linespeed and lop stops out but you still need intermediate padding.
 
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quantinghome

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Whilst the connections exist, which paths would Eurostar use? I thought people on here were saying there aren't any available on wcml, mml or wcml.
Eurostar could bid for some of the open access paths if they felt it was worthwhile. Evidently they don't.

Regarding available paths, I'm not sure what people you're talking about. Evidently there are a small number of paths available at present, with some modest increases expected once planned upgrades (e.g. Werrington) are completed. Nevertheless, we are approaching the fundamental limits of the capacity of existing lines.
 

quantinghome

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For those who say that Hs2 will give faster journey times.
Well the Sheffield to Birmingham Hs2 journey will be 8 minutes faster than the current journey times
Standard time for late running xc trains from Sheffield to Birmingham is 56 minutes. And paths are easily found for these journeys. Current journey times are grossly inflated.
For example. Someone calculated that A Plymouth to Glasgow journey via Sheffield and Leeds had 167 minutes standing time.
So we must be very careful about exaggerating time saving benefits of Hs2. I regularly travel from Birmingham to newcasle and my trains stand for at least 30 minutes on every journey. This does notlw for early arrival due to an excess of recovery time

You have chosen a particular example to support your argument. HS2 Sheffield services are planned to use a substantial length of existing railway which raises the journey time. By contrast, Leeds to Birmingham by HS2 would be under one hour. Even with all padding removed (and as others have pointed out there's a good reason for it being there), 1h40 would be the best you could ever get for Leeds to Birmingham on the existing XC route.
 

zaph

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The problem with HS2 up north, is allot of people see it as another toy for London. Most don't believe it will ever reach here and even if it did, we wouldn't be able to afford to use it.

We would much rather the money was spent on upgrading connections between northern cities and providing those cities with metro systems. That would do for more for the north than hs2. The railway around London needs capacity upgrades but London has just for the multi-billion pound Crossrail line. Isn't it our turn to receive investment, before we unbalance the country's economy even more in favour of London and the south east?
 

Bletchleyite

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The problem with HS2 up north, is allot of people see it as another toy for London. Most don't believe it will ever reach here and even if it did, we wouldn't be able to afford to use it

It's not quite a toy for London, but it does exist primarily to benefit the south WCML (south of Northampton), and has the most benefits for Milton Keynes (which is a growing market for travel north and will be over 400,000 population soon enough). It doesn't really benefit the North to that significant an extent (other than in a relatively minor sense of improved punctuality/reliability of services to London, a few minutes off and a bit more capacity). I think it's fine to be honest about that.

That means the other projects mentioned (Metrolink expansion/S-Bahn-Manchester, P15/16, NPR, widespread electrification and rolling stock orders etc) are needed as well, not instead.
 

jfowkes

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A major PR coup for the government would be to keep HS2 plans and also announce a massive increase in investment in the classic network. I don't think most people are against HS2 in and of itself, they just see it as taking money and effort away from the existing railway. Which isn't true, but governments are in the business of fighting perceptions, not reality.
 

jfowkes

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That means the other projects mentioned (Metrolink expansion/S-Bahn-Manchester, P15/16, NPR, widespread electrification and rolling stock orders etc) are needed as well, not instead.

I thought that HS2 was a "requirement" in some sense for NPR? Is that not right?
 

quantinghome

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The problem with HS2 up north, is allot of people see it as another toy for London. Most don't believe it will ever reach here and even if it did, we wouldn't be able to afford to use it.

We would much rather the money was spent on upgrading connections between northern cities and providing those cities with metro systems. That would do for more for the north than hs2. The railway around London needs capacity upgrades but London has just for the multi-billion pound Crossrail line. Isn't it our turn to receive investment, before we unbalance the country's economy even more in favour of London and the south east?

The problem with HS2 is that despite the plans having been around for years, few people seem to be aware of what connections it actually provides. HS2 is doing precisely what you suggest, massively improving connections between northern and midland cities. Not all connections of course, no single scheme could do that.

HS2 has made a real hash of explaining the benefits of the scheme, leaving the field open for a strange brew of free market ideologues, 'green' campaigners and NIMBY groups to spread disinformation.
 

camflyer

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The problem with HS2 up north, is allot of people see it as another toy for London. Most don't believe it will ever reach here and even if it did, we wouldn't be able to afford to use it.

We would much rather the money was spent on upgrading connections between northern cities and providing those cities with metro systems. That would do for more for the north than hs2. The railway around London needs capacity upgrades but London has just for the multi-billion pound Crossrail line. Isn't it our turn to receive investment, before we unbalance the country's economy even more in favour of London and the south east?

If you listen to the likes of Andy Burnham and those involved with planning NPR they say that HS2 is an essential part of delivering a modern network for the north. It's not a matter of doing one or the other - both are required. This review will probably change the prioritisation so that work gets started on NPR sooner than the later stages of HS2b but scrapping all of HS2 isn't going to help. Making it easier to move between Northern cities would just put even more strain on the WCML.
 

jfowkes

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HS2 is doing precisely what you suggest, massively improving connections between northern and midland cities. Not all connections of course, no single scheme could do that.
It doesn't really benefit the North to that significant an extent (other than in a relatively minor sense of improved punctuality/reliability of services to London, a few minutes off and a bit more capacity). I think it's fine to be honest about that.

Which of these things is true please?
 

quantinghome

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If it's built in full it's a bit between the two due to the speed-up between Manchester and Brum, but it isn't that big an improvement. Capacity on the south WCML is the key need.

As an exercise in understatement you're not quite up there with Hirohito's "the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage", but you're running it a close second.

If HS2 is built in full it will provide a massive improvement in capacity and journey time between the north, midlands and London compared to current services. This is not a controversial statement. It's a bigger step change than the WCML upgrade provided, and far far bigger than the incremental improvements we're seeing on the ECML with the Azumas.
 

HowardGWR

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I got the impression that the supervising board for this review was so packed with those who support the concept, that only tweaking and tinkering with the scheme could possibly result; the junction for Stoke was mentioned as a possible deletion. Another move would be further phasing; that might be sensible anyway, given the experienced performance on the GWEP.
 

camflyer

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As an exercise in understatement you're not quite up there with Hirohito's "the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage", but you're running it a close second.

If HS2 is built in full it will provide a massive improvement in capacity and journey time between the north, midlands and London compared to current services. This is not a controversial statement. It's a bigger step change than the WCML upgrade provided, and far far bigger than the incremental improvements we're seeing on the ECML with the Azumas.

The GWML has recently had £10bn spent on it and have the improvements been that noticeable?
 

Ethano92

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The GWML has recently had £10bn spent on it and have the improvements been that noticeable?

Thames valley commuters would say yes. Almost consistent 8 car EMUs instead of Turbos.

As for the longer distance stuff, that timetable comes into play in December
 

LNW-GW Joint

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A major PR coup for the government would be to keep HS2 plans and also announce a massive increase in investment in the classic network. I don't think most people are against HS2 in and of itself, they just see it as taking money and effort away from the existing railway. Which isn't true, but governments are in the business of fighting perceptions, not reality.

In the current 5-year control period (2019-24), the government has given Network Rail £50 billion to maintain and improve the current network (excluding major projects like Crossrail and the modest TP upgrade).
This is a huge figure and more than anything in the past.
In the last control period (2014-19), the government gave NR £11 billion for major upgrades including £6 billion for electrification.
Network Rail proved incapable of delivering the upgrades promised, and half of them have been descoped/cancelled to remain within the budget.
Part of that is the very difficult task of re-engineering a Victorian railway, both in cost and timescale terms.
HS2, like HS1, is new-build, and it is really much easier to create a new railway than upgrade the old.

Cancelling HS2 in favour of NPR is a way of delaying any significant benefits for a decade.
HS2 is essentially shovel-ready and has a detailed project plan and timescale for Phase 1.
By contrast NPR is currently a fantasy project with vague objectives ("faster journeys across the north") and no clarity whatsoever on what routes will be built/upgraded, or what services will apply during and after construction.
It is at least 5 years from work starting on the ground, and 10 years before any passenger benefits.
Plus probably a decade's worth of disruption to existing services to build the thing, similar to that suffered by WCML passengers during the recent upgrade.
 

trebor79

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Cancelling HS2 [...] is a way of delaying any significant benefits for a decade.
HS2 is essentially shovel-ready and has a detailed project plan and timescale for Phase 1.
But, to coin a phrase, perhaps no project is better than a bad project? Anyway, I don't think @jfowkes was advocating cancellation of HS2, quite the opposite!
 

JonathanH

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I had no idea northern commuters benefited from EMUs in the Thames valley!

Indirectly they did although not that materially - 387s replaced Turbos which added capacity in the Bristol area which in turn released 150s to add capacity in the North.

HS2 benefits the North far more than the proposed work at Croydon does. Why is this not being targeted for cancellation?
 

Camden

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If HS2 was worth going ahead with, it would include the replacement of the Edwardian parts of our country's railway, never mind the Victorian.

But instead, at political behest, it was designed to do no such thing and instead steers well away.

I agree that NPR is fantasy, but then it was cooked up by the same toerags that cooked up HS2. So that goes without saying.

The only thing I've ever agreed with Adonis about is his recent comment that this would now be a bunfight. Yep. And that's all his fault.
 

hwl

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Indirectly they did although not that materially - 387s replaced Turbos which added capacity in the Bristol area which in turn released 150s to add capacity in the North.

HS2 benefits the North far more than the proposed work at Croydon does. Why is this not being targeted for cancellation?

Because Croydon will pay for itself pretty quickly??? ;)
 

ohgoditsjames

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If HS2 does get canned then at a minimum I want to see significant improvements to Sheffield to Leeds (faster and more services), full electrification of the MML, Sheffield to Doncaster electrified, Sheffield to Leeds electrified.

Significant improvements to the Hope Valley (wires would be appreciated).

Nottingham to Sheffield could do with better upgrades too.

Derby to Birmingham upgrades.
 

quantinghome

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If HS2 was worth going ahead with, it would include the replacement of the Edwardian parts of our country's railway, never mind the Victorian.

But instead, at political behest, it was designed to do no such thing and instead steers well away.
Unclear what Edwardian parts of the railway you're referring to here. In any case HS2 doesn't replace any part of the current railway; it adds to it.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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If HS2 was worth going ahead with, it would include the replacement of the Edwardian parts of our country's railway, never mind the Victorian.
But instead, at political behest, it was designed to do no such thing and instead steers well away.

Not much new railway was built after 1901, but one major Edwardian line was built, ironically called the "New North Main Line", by the Great Western Railway.
That was the upgrade/realignment/new build of the route from Old Oak Common (fancy that!) to Aynho Jn on the original GW Didcot-Chester route, via High Wycombe.
The Great Central also shared the cost of the middle part of the route to make it joint property from Northolt Jn to Ashendon Jn, providing improved access to its system.
Opened 1905-10. Downgraded by BR in the 1960s/70s, with part singling.

Restored to double track and upgraded for 100mph running in 2000s/10s, for improved services into Marylebone.
Access to Paddington from Northolt Jn is severely limited after route rationalisation.
The HS2 route does actually run nearby, but is mainly closer to the main GC route via Aylesbury where a short section of the original route is reused further north.
A modern high speed alignment through the area could not pass through the High Wycombe or Aylesbury corridors, there would be too much destruction of property.
Tunnelling through the Chilterns is probably the only way of getting a new alignment from London to the North these days.
I think the HS2 tunnelled route does use part of the GW/GC alignment at the Old Oak end, but is deep underground at that point.
 

Esker-pades

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Which of these things is true please?
Note the location of Bletchleyite (IE: Bletchley) and their previous comments made in the main HS2 discussion thread re. this second stage.

The irony being that HS2 is actually about local transport - providing more south WCML capacity for commuters.

I'd fully support axing it north of Birmingham, though.
Decisions should be made on practical benefit and not emotionally. It would be better to spend the phase 2 money on electrification, rolling stock and Metrolinking.

And my response to that:
And other things. Comments like these give the sceptics like PR1Berske ammunition to scrap it altogether.



Commuter from Bletchley supports the phase that will give them the most benefit, but does not support anything additional!

It is already well established that HS2 funds are reserved for HS2, and that if it isn't spent on that, it isn't going to be spent on other railway projects.

Here are some "emotional" arguments for HS2 Phase 2:

The Manchester to Stockport problem:
Presently, long distance services from London run at 20 minute frequencies, going against the generally half hourly services that are more appropriate for demand across south Manchester commuter destinations. It leaves an inefficient timetable and a poor service at some locations. Congleton cannot get a reasonable service because the paths are required by the InterCity services. I'm sure agbrs_Jack can give more of an insight into Congleton's chronic lack of services. One cannot solve this without removing other services first. We've already had to turn back the second Mid-Cheshire Line train per hour at Altrincham because of a lack of paths from Stockport to Piccadilly.

etc.

Given all of that, I'd be more inclined to the quantinghome view.
 

GRALISTAIR

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The new buzzphrase appears to be "disruption/minimize disruption" which I know upgrades/electrification do cause. Surely with HS2 you actually minimize disruption - you are building new while maintaining existing services. OK where you tap in such as Euston etc there will be some disruption.
 

6Gman

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If HS2 was worth going ahead with, it would include the replacement of the Edwardian parts of our country's railway, never mind the Victorian.

What do you mean by "replacement of the Edwardian parts" ?
 

GRALISTAIR

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What do you mean by "replacement of the Edwardian parts" ?
I am sure the OP will say exactly what he meant - but I took it as there are parts of the railways even younger than Victorian era infrastructure - and they need replacing never mind Victorian era assets.
Wikipedia gives this as the definition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwardian_era
 

zaph

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HS2 is being sold on the news as being for the north and yet I don't see the benefit. The line won't reach the north until 2032, at the earliest and i would be astonished if it isn't simply stopped at Birmingham to save money.

What will the north get from this? Faster links to London? The TGV network shows that the benefits to regional cities from fast rail connections were nowhere near as high as the proponents of those lines claimed. Meanwhile HS2 is a huge blackhole which swallows up the countries rail investment.

Alright I agree that as far as the north is concerned, it doesn't matter. No chance that London politicians and civil servants will divert HS2 money to Northern transport investment. Neither will the London based media in this country pressure them to do so. The establishment in this country only cares about the south east.

It is however absurd that we are getting a massively expensive line to London, when the East-West connections between the major cities of the north are a slow joke. It would cost a fraction of HS2's budget to upgrade the Hull-Liverpool routes, which cross most of the major population centres of the north. Yet politicians and civil servants in London can't even find the money to electrify the route, let properly upgrade it.
 
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