Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

Yossarian22 · 28 Aug 2019

MarkyT said:
Fully agree with that. Japan has much of its population in a long thin strip along the south coast of Honshu, the main island. That was the focus of the Tokaido Shinkansen developments in the 1960s and there is simply nothing quite like that in terms of sheer population served over such a distance in UK or Europe. JR Central are now planning a new inland bypass, mostly in tunnel, cutting corners through the mountains to connect some of the largest settlements along this corridor. Like HS2, this will deliberately avoid highly populated areas in between, and will thus have very few intermediate station. Unlike HS2 however, the Chūō Shinkansen is planned to utilise superconducting maglev technology. Japan even has its own smaller profile 'classic compatible' trains in the form of the JR East 'Mini Shinkansen' routes over gauge changed former narrow gauge track once clear of the new build trunk lines, and sharing the track with local services, either also converted to standard gauge, or in some places sharing mixed gauge track. It is thus no longer true that the modern Shinkansen network is entirely segregated from other rail services. Mixed gauge track also takes Shinkensen services undersea through the Seikan Tunnel between the islands of Honshu and Hokkaido, shared with narrow gauge freight traffic.

So while I fully understand and get the argument that points out that by moving WCML express services onto HS2 allows more limited express services and commuter trains on the classic WCML rout my worry is what happens in 50 or 100 years time when we have this capacity argument again. Yes at them moment the UK isn’t quite comparable to Japan in population density but the WCML is running out of capacity, why not try and add as much capacity as possible by lowering HS2 speeds, giving it more stops and trying to get as many if not all intercity services off the WCML for good. Yes there will be fewer direct London to Birmingham services on HS2 overall but the capacity increase will be larger and the WCML can become a commuter/freight line. We have an opportunity to massively future proof capacity, and to counter the point about Japans population density, if you look at pictures of many Shinkansen stations in the 1960s (Yokohama for example) the population in the area is almost shockingly sparse, much of the density came later as the population grew over 50 years of operation, in this way I very much see HS2 as a billion pound stop gap.

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MarkyT · 28 Aug 2019

Yossarian22 said:
So while I fully understand and get the argument that points out that by moving WCML express services onto HS2 allows more limited express services and commuter trains on the classic WCML rout my worry is what happens in 50 or 100 years time when we have this capacity argument again. Yes at them moment the UK isn’t quite comparable to Japan in population density but the WCML is running out of capacity, why not try and add as much capacity as possible by lowering HS2 speeds, giving it more stops and trying to get as many if not all intercity services off the WCML for good. Yes there will be fewer direct London to Birmingham services on HS2 overall but the capacity increase will be larger and the WCML can become a commuter/freight line. We have an opportunity to massively future proof capacity, and to counter the point about Japans population density, if you look at pictures of many Shinkansen stations in the 1960s (Yokohama for example) the population in the area is almost shockingly sparse, much of the density came later as the population grew over 50 years of operation, in this way I very much see HS2 as a billion pound stop gap.

More stops en route is definitely not the answer. Additional stations would be expensive, requiring loops at least 11km in length alongside the new fast lines for braking and reacceleration, and pathing of overtaking moves would be very wasteful of capacity. The existing lines already go through the settlements along the corridor where people actually live so that's where to run the additional semi-fast services. To meet further long term demand increases, the answer is to split off some of the the East Midlands and North Eastern services onto yet another new high speed line routed up the eastern side of the country. That would release paths for increased services to North Western destinations on the original HS2 line. Introduction of bi-level rolling stock on wholly captive services could also add capacity as required. The difficult challenge as always will be to find the additional terminating capacity in London. The resource utilisation benefits of higher speed would be lost with a general slow down, requiring more rolling stock and crews for a given frequency and capacity.

The Ham · 28 Aug 2019

mmh said:
More HS2 "good news," a whistleblower claims he was removed for doing so.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49482701 - "HS2's ballooning budget was 'covered up'"

It sounds like things weren't done well, however the purchase costs may not be the end of the equation.

For instance, you buy a building for £100,000 you then know that you don't need it for 3 years so rent it out for £500/month for 36 months. Bringing in £18,000, you have costs of £3,000 (fees, maintenance, etc). That results in a net cost of that building of £85,000.

Then there's other building which they will be buying which don't need demolition, you buy then for £100,000 rent or for 15 years (income £75,000) and sell for £100,000.

Now you're purchase costs for that are £100,000 but your final property cost for that is minus £75,000. That is then incorporated into the final figures reducing the cost of the rest of the purchase costs.

Now if we assume that 10% of those properties purchased bring in 175% of their purchase costs then your early purchase costs can be 17.5% higher than your final budget and you will still be on budget at the end.

If you can rent 20% for 3 years then that too allows the early budget to increase above by 23% but still end up within budget.

Combined that could allow you to be over budget by 40% but still be within the overall budget at the end.

As an example between 2014 and 2018 there's be earnings of £30 million from property purchased by HS2. Now that's small change compared to the overall budget, but hasn't accounted for any properties being sold at the end and is only the first 5 years of what's likely to be 20 year program.

daodao · 28 Aug 2019

trebor79 said:
I used to live in Beeston. There's absolutely no way I'd want to drive to Toton to catch a train, even a very fast one. By the time you've done the drive, parked in a presumably vast car park and walked to the station (paying for parking on the way) any time saving largely eroded and comes with additional hassle.
If I still lived there, I might be tempted to get a train from Beeston to Toton. But I might as well just get the train or tram to Nottingham, or even catch a London train at Beeston.

There is a need to relieve the WCML from London to Birmingham/Crewe, but the case for the eastern leg of HS2 is weak. IMO, the existing ECML is fast enough for journeys to Doncaster and beyond, although there should be some faster trains to the West Riding, non-stop from King's Cross to Wakefield. I recall travelling from London to Leeds in early 1977 and the journey only took 2 hours, with no intermediate stops on the ECML itself.

A station at Toton will do nothing to regenerate Derby/Nottingham and will only be useful as a P&R station for journeys to London. Instead, the MML should be fully electrified and there should be 2 express tph (3 at peak periods M-F) from St Pancras to Nottingham, calling only at Leicester, Loughborough/Beeston (?alternately) and terminating at Nottingham; this compares with 1 diesel express tph to Nottingham at present. The service to Sheffield needs accelerating, so 2 trains per hour (3 at peak periods M-F) should run via HS2 (phase 1) and a short spur onto the Lichfield-Burton line, calling at Burton/Derby/Chesterfield and terminating at Sheffield. The semi-fast service (2 tph) along the MML should run to Derby and terminate there.

Glenn1969 · 28 Aug 2019

They need to do something to relieve the ECML bottleneck at Welwyn.

nidave · 28 Aug 2019

ainsworth74 said:
In which case why don't Great Anglia terminate their long distance services at Stratford? Or LNER at Finsbury Park?

Dobt you find it amusing that people are complaining about the Midlands parkway Station being not close to anything and the Birmingham Hs2 station not being close to new street, yet in in the same breath saying "let's stop all Hs2 trains at ooc"

nidave · 28 Aug 2019

irish_rail said:
people would want to pay premium fares to use HS2 anyway.

Where is your source this will happen

krus_aragon · 28 Aug 2019

Glenn1969 said:
They need to do something to relieve the ECML bottleneck at Welwyn.

I can't consider myself well-informed on the ECML, but the impression I get is that there are more opportunities for such localised improvements on the ECML than the WCML.

Glenn1969 · 28 Aug 2019

Welwyn requires a new viaduct. Or a new line

krus_aragon · 28 Aug 2019

krus_aragon said:
I can't consider myself well-informed on the ECML, but the impression I get is that there are more opportunities for such localised improvements on the ECML than the WCML.

Glenn1969 said:
Welwyn requires a new viaduct. Or a new line

Granted. But my (naive) impression is that the new line or viaduct would be shorter and simpler than what would be required to give similar benefits on the WCML route (such as HS2, reopening the GC route, expanding the Chiltern line, etc.), and such an upgrade could be done with less disruption than further upgrades to the WCML.

Geezertronic · 28 Aug 2019

nidave said:
Dobt you find it amusing that people are complaining about the Midlands parkway Station being not close to anything and the Birmingham Hs2 station not being close to new street, yet in in the same breath saying "let's stop all Hs2 trains at ooc"

I find it ironic given the assumption that the walking distance between Birmingham New Street and Birmingham Curzon Street is likely to be the same or less than the walking distance between Euston and St Pancras, and if the Midland Metro is extended to serve both New Street and Curzon Street (with Moor Street in-between) then there will be public transport route that I would suggest be closer than the tube between Euston and St Pancras

Glenn1969 · 28 Aug 2019

It would require total shutdown of the ECML possibly to allow construction of a new viaduct and has been ruled out as prohibitively expensive. HS2 Phase 2 would relieve the ECML as well as the WCML

Bletchleyite · 28 Aug 2019

Glenn1969 said:
It would require total shutdown of the ECML possibly to allow construction of a new viaduct and has been ruled out as prohibitively expensive. HS2 Phase 2 would relieve the ECML as well as the WCML

Why would constructing a new viaduct require closure of the ECML? Like with a road bridge (or Market Harborough station) you'd build the new one adjacent to it and then connect it up once done.

Glenn1969 · 28 Aug 2019

They have been trying to work out what to do about Welwyn for 20 years. 4 tracking is possible but probably would require closure of the line during works and closure of Welwyn North station which adds to the bottleneck while trains are stopping at the station on a 2 track railway

I concede that a new viaduct to take the pressure off Digswell might not require closure but it has been ruled out on cost grounds anyway

HS2 Phase 2 or another new line is needed to relieve the ECML too

krus_aragon · 28 Aug 2019

Glenn1969 said:
It would require total shutdown of the ECML possibly to allow construction of a new viaduct and has been ruled out as prohibitively expensive. HS2 Phase 2 would relieve the ECML as well as the WCML

Some would argue that HS2 needs to be rules out as provibitively expensive, too!

Agreed, HS2 phase 2 would also relieve the ECML bottleneck. But the review may re-examine whether phase 2 is the best way to do so.

Bletchleyite · 28 Aug 2019

Glenn1969 said:
They have been trying to work out what to do about Welwyn for 20 years. 4 tracking is possible but probably would require closure of the line during works

No, it wouldn't. It didn't on the Trent Valley. There were many closures, but not a full outright one for the period of the works.

al78 · 28 Aug 2019

Yossarian22 said:
So while I fully understand and get the argument that points out that by moving WCML express services onto HS2 allows more limited express services and commuter trains on the classic WCML rout my worry is what happens in 50 or 100 years time when we have this capacity argument again. Yes at them moment the UK isn’t quite comparable to Japan in population density but the WCML is running out of capacity, why not try and add as much capacity as possible by lowering HS2 speeds, giving it more stops and trying to get as many if not all intercity services off the WCML for good. Yes there will be fewer direct London to Birmingham services on HS2 overall but the capacity increase will be larger and the WCML can become a commuter/freight line. We have an opportunity to massively future proof capacity, and to counter the point about Japans population density, if you look at pictures of many Shinkansen stations in the 1960s (Yokohama for example) the population in the area is almost shockingly sparse, much of the density came later as the population grew over 50 years of operation, in this way I very much see HS2 as a billion pound stop gap.

In 100 years time it is likely we will have far more serious problems to deal with, as that is about the timescale that the worst effects of climate change and consequences will be real and blatant. Don't assume that growth is going to carry on indefinitely, just because it has for the last couple of centuries.

jfowkes · 28 Aug 2019

al78 said:
In 100 years time it is likely we will have far more serious problems to deal with, as that is about the timescale that the worst effects of climate change and consequences will be real and blatant. Don't assume that growth is going to carry on indefinitely, just because it has for the last couple of centuries.

Optimistically, even if growth stops or reverses overall, a modal shift to rail will happen which will means passenger numbers and journeys continue to increase. That's necessary to mitigate climate change and the other detrimental effects of road transport.

mmh · 28 Aug 2019

The Ham said:
It sounds like things weren't done well, however the purchase costs may not be the end of the equation.

For instance, you buy a building for £100,000 you then know that you don't need it for 3 years so rent it out for £500/month for 36 months. Bringing in £18,000, you have costs of £3,000 (fees, maintenance, etc). That results in a net cost of that building of £85,000.

Then there's other building which they will be buying which don't need demolition, you buy then for £100,000 rent or for 15 years (income £75,000) and sell for £100,000.

Now you're purchase costs for that are £100,000 but your final property cost for that is minus £75,000. That is then incorporated into the final figures reducing the cost of the rest of the purchase costs.

Now if we assume that 10% of those properties purchased bring in 175% of their purchase costs then your early purchase costs can be 17.5% higher than your final budget and you will still be on budget at the end.

If you can rent 20% for 3 years then that too allows the early budget to increase above by 23% but still end up within budget.

Combined that could allow you to be over budget by 40% but still be within the overall budget at the end.

As an example between 2014 and 2018 there's be earnings of £30 million from property purchased by HS2. Now that's small change compared to the overall budget, but hasn't accounted for any properties being sold at the end and is only the first 5 years of what's likely to be 20 year program.

I asked before, and I'll ask again - do you have a source to back up your assertions that HS2 Ltd has a sideline in property speculation?

anme · 28 Aug 2019

mmh said:
I asked before, and I'll ask again - do you have a source to back up your assertions that HS2 Ltd has a sideline in property speculation?

If they do, is that a problem?

quantinghome · 28 Aug 2019

Yossarian22 said:
So while I fully understand and get the argument that points out that by moving WCML express services onto HS2 allows more limited express services and commuter trains on the classic WCML rout my worry is what happens in 50 or 100 years time when we have this capacity argument again. Yes at them moment the UK isn’t quite comparable to Japan in population density but the WCML is running out of capacity, why not try and add as much capacity as possible by lowering HS2 speeds, giving it more stops and trying to get as many if not all intercity services off the WCML for good. Yes there will be fewer direct London to Birmingham services on HS2 overall but the capacity increase will be larger and the WCML can become a commuter/freight line. We have an opportunity to massively future proof capacity, and to counter the point about Japans population density, if you look at pictures of many Shinkansen stations in the 1960s (Yokohama for example) the population in the area is almost shockingly sparse, much of the density came later as the population grew over 50 years of operation, in this way I very much see HS2 as a billion pound stop gap.

To address your concerns, consider what capacity the WCML fast lines could supply for a semi-fast service. You could run 12-car EMUs, 12 of them every hour. That's a vast increase for Watford, Milton Keynes, Rugby etc.

mmh · 28 Aug 2019

anme said:
If they do, is that a problem?

My point is that they don't, and yes, potentially that would be a very big problem.

Neen Sollars · 28 Aug 2019

anme said:
If they do, is that a problem?

mmh said:
I asked before, and I'll ask again - do you have a source to back up your assertions that HS2 Ltd has a sideline in property speculation?

If HS2 is engaged in any such enterprise the SFO investigation will uncover it. If the SFO takes no further action we should assume that HS2 operations are lawful, legitimate and within its terms of reference.

jfowkes · 28 Aug 2019

If you feel like doing some reading on it (I don't), the NAO released a report on HS2 property and land spending last September:

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/u...acquisition-for-the-Phase-One-Full-report.pdf

Neen Sollars · 28 Aug 2019

krus_aragon said:
I can offer the following ballpark figures:
This site gives the estimate as ₤99,000, and the final spend as nearly ₤300,000.

Assuming the estimate was dated 1833 (when Stephenson was appointed by the London & Birmingham Railway), and the final spend was calculated in 1838, bunging those values in an online inflation calculator gives modern figures of ₤10,593,000 estimate, and roughly ₤32,100,000 actual spend.

@anme or others may be able to get slightly more accurate figures for you, but hopefully that'll be useful in the meantime.

Thank you for your time and trouble. Kilsby tunnel about 2.2 km and three times over budget, HS2 tunnel through the Chilterns 15.8 km, and given the confidence I have in HS2 I guess it too will be three times over budget. HS2 is not good value for taxpayers money.

anme · 28 Aug 2019

mmh said:
My point is that they don't, and yes, potentially that would be a very big problem.

Why? Obviously property speculation shouldn't be the primary business of HS2, but it may be an inevitable side-effect of its main mission.

anme · 28 Aug 2019

Neen Sollars said:
Thank you for your time and trouble. Kilsby tunnel about 2.2 km and three times over budget, HS2 tunnel through the Chilterns 15.8 km, and given the confidence I have in HS2 I guess it too will be three times over budget. HS2 is not good value for taxpayers money.

Exactly. And we should close Kilsby Tunnel too. We must not tolerate projects that go over budget, right?

Neen Sollars · 28 Aug 2019

Matt P said:
I agree that the UK has a rather abysmal record delivering infrastructure. I also agree that even if HS2 is descoped or scrapped in its current form, some form of relief line will still be needed for the southern end of the WCML at the very least. However I think you over state the impact having or not having HS2 will have on UK productivity. Id suggest that a failure to invest in vocational and technical education, housing and urban and regional transport are probably major factors. Ok so HS2 will assist with the latter indirectly to an extent. However when compared to most major German cities, which have extensive S-Bahns, U-Bahns or Stadtbahns, trams and extensive bus networks our cities are poorly relations. Id suggest these are as at least as important as a HSL network.

Agreed. We keep getting different messages, is HS2 about speed or capacity or both. I would remove very high speed from the case. We keep hearing about lack of station platform capacity in London, the same is said of Birmingham, Low and behold there is room in central London and Brum to build extra platforms at Euston and a station at Curzon Street in Birmingham. Build the platforms at Euston, build Old Oak Common and the line into Euston, re-instate the South Ruislip line, stop running only two and three car services on the Chiltern Main Line. Use Curzon Street for stoppers to relieve New Street, build the Bordesley Chords and open the two spare platforms at Moor Street.

Ianno87 · 28 Aug 2019

Neen Sollars said:
Agreed. We keep getting different messages, is HS2 about speed or capacity or both. I would remove very high speed from the case. We keep hearing about lack of station platform capacity in London, the same is said of Birmingham, Low and behold there is room in central London and Brum to build extra platforms at Euston and a station at Curzon Street in Birmingham. Build the platforms at Euston, build Old Oak Common and the line into Euston, re-instate the South Ruislip line, stop running only two and three car services on the Chiltern Main Line. Use Curzon Street for stoppers to relieve New Street, build the Bordesley Chords and open the two spare platforms at Moor Street.

Please describe the train service outputs this delivers.

Just describing some infrastructure is pointless without stating what is does.

mmh · 28 Aug 2019

anme said:
Why? Obviously property speculation shouldn't be the primary business of HS2, but it may be an inevitable side-effect of its main mission.

Potential for conflicts of interest galore. Already there are questions over HS2's handling of land and property settlements and reports of the SFO investigating.

Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

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