EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Killingworth · 2 Sep 2019

Bantamzen said:
I mean referenda in general. The chaos that this one has caused by being too vague for something so complex might convince some future politicians that they simply aren't worth having, particularly as they are not legally binding.

So to hold a referendum the power calling such a vote needs to be sure they'll get at least 60% voting one way or the other on at at least a 50% turnout. Otherwise chaos, confusion, and potential civil war is likely Let's get a bill through parliament to ensure that applies to any such future votes calling for any constitutional changes.

Wait a minute. If the government was so sure, in most cases there'd be no need for a ballot. Perhaps a slight revision to the bill. No second referendum on the same subject for at least 5 years.

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krus_aragon · 2 Sep 2019

Either which way, I agree that the whole referendum vs general election sovereignty issue needs to be sorted out.

dosxuk · 2 Sep 2019

So, general election next month then? Boris has just been out in Downing Street setting out his manifesto.

nlogax · 2 Sep 2019

All routes lead to an Oct 14th GE if the government loses the vote. That's what certain journos are being told right now.

Ianno87 · 2 Sep 2019

nlogax said:
All routes lead to an Oct 14th GE if the government loses the vote. That's what certain journos are being told right now.

Weird date....given it's a Monday...

nlogax · 2 Sep 2019

Ianno87 said:
Weird date....given it's a Monday...

Normally they're on Thursdays but given the last three years 'normal' doesn't seem to apply in Westminster anymore.

Struner · 2 Sep 2019

Thursday is just a custom

krus_aragon · 2 Sep 2019

It can't happen until 25 days after Parliament is dissolved (the campaign period), so it would have to be October at the earliest.

Kite159 · 2 Sep 2019

Ah good, just what Steptoe has wanted since the last election in 2017. The only thing which will come from an election will be a hung parliament

radamfi · 2 Sep 2019

Corbyn needs to stand aside or at least form a pact with other parties. But he won't, as he's the only major party leader who is actually a Brexiteer. (BJ is just pretending to be one at the moment for strategic reasons). So he'll deliberately stay leader to scupper the chance of a Remain alliance victory.

krus_aragon · 2 Sep 2019

The bill that backbenchers want to introduce tomorrow is here. If passed, it would tie the Prime Minister's hands very tightly, obligating him to request and accept an extension from the EU.

In light of that, and the PM's statement that he will not ask for a delay, what are his options if the backbench bill is passed this week?

He appears to be manoeuvring for a General Election (despite protestations tonight), but he does not have the prerogative to do so on his own any more: in order to do so, he needs over a hundred opposition MPs to join his party to hit the 66% of Parliament needed now. Throwing himself on his sword by tabling his own motion of no confidence in the Government (assuming the opposition support the motion) would leave Parliament free to find an alternative (caretaker) Prime Minister who would carry out their wishes and request an extension. If he resigns and hands back the keys immediately, then Dominic Raab (as First Secretary of State) will be left in the same position.

Is the Government's current strategy to rely on Corbyn leaping at the opportunity of an election, and doing so before finishing with the "legislative route" that he and other parties agreed upon? I can't see what other possibilities there are.

Struner · 2 Sep 2019

& what if Labour refuses to play ball?

krus_aragon · 2 Sep 2019

Struner said:
& what if Labour refuses to play ball?

If the bill is passed and Labour don't play ball with the Government's election plan, the smart move for them would be to table a motion of no confidence (likely to succeed with the PM refusing to carry out the wishes of Parliament) and install whoever as a caretaker PM to request the extension from the EU. Then, and only then, agree to call an early General Election.

Struner · 2 Sep 2019

My thinking too...
Don’t let BJ set the agenda.

EM2 · 2 Sep 2019

Struner said:
& what if Labour refuses to play ball?

From ITV's Paul Brand on Twitter:

Labour backbencher Hilary Benn tells me MPs may refuse to vote for an election if they can’t trust the PM to stick to his October 14th date.

Struner · 2 Sep 2019

For starters...
But I for one don’t trust him at all!
So stop him from setting the agenda!

AlterEgo · 2 Sep 2019

radamfi said:
Corbyn needs to stand aside or at least form a pact with other parties. But he won't, as he's the only major party leader who is actually a Brexiteer. (BJ is just pretending to be one at the moment for strategic reasons). So he'll deliberately stay leader to scupper the chance of a Remain alliance victory.

Yup. Sadly, right on the money.

EM2 · 2 Sep 2019

More from Robert Peston:

Labour and @jeremycorbyn face huge decision on Wednesday whether to vote for a general election if it comes to that. As
@EmilyThornberry told shadow cabinet, under Fixed Term Parliament Act Labour can insist @BorisJohnson takes no-deal off the table, that he must accept the Brexit-delay bill as a condition of Labour voting for a general election. In theory dissolution of parliament requires two-thirds majority so Labour can block election. Thornberry told colleagues it would be wrong to agree to fight a general election on Johnson’s terms. But if Johnson guarantees election will be 14 October, before both crucial EU council and Brexit day 31 October, Labour would be accused of cowardice if it refused to fight an election. I am also told that Downing Street has “war-gamed” the scenario of Labour opposing an election and thinks“t here is a way round it” such that election would still happen. So tomorrow’s vote is probably - probably - all about whether there is an election on 14 October. But nothing about this is simple.

edwin_m · 2 Sep 2019

krus_aragon said:
In light of that, and the PM's statement that he will not ask for a delay, what are his options if the backbench bill is passed this week?

Classical Greek, something Boris knows about, apparently has a form of question that expects the answer "no". In modern terms it probably involves annoying Macron.

Killingworth · 2 Sep 2019

edwin_m said:
Classical Greek, something Boris knows about, apparently has a form of question that expects the answer "no". In modern terms it probably involves annoying Macron.

Corbyn has 2 A levels at grade E, but that is enough to tell him how to scupper Brexit just by sitting tight. He's possibly more dangerous than Johnson.

My MP is supposed to resign tomorrow so it will be interesting to see if Labour call for an early by-election or if LibDems exercise their prerogative first.

EM2 · 2 Sep 2019

Philip Hammond has just been reselected by his local party :lol:

But apart from that, I reckon the GE might not be the foregone conclusion that I thought earlier.
Bear with me a moment, as we take a wander through a possible scenario...

MPs manage to pass legislation to block No Deal
The Conservatives remove the whip from rebel Tory MPs
The Conservatives are now a minority Government
Johnson calls for a General Election
MPs refuse

Now what does Johnson do?

chris11256 · 3 Sep 2019

Found an interesting article on how the extension bill requiring the PM to accept an extension infringes on prerogative and would then require ‘Queen’s consent’, giving the government a chance to block the bill.

It’s an interesting read that explains it much better then I just have. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019...ce-a-significant-dilemma-over-queens-consent/

chris11256 · 3 Sep 2019

EM2 said:
Philip Hammond has just been reselected by his local party

But apart from that, I reckon the GE might not be the foregone conclusion that I thought earlier.
Bear with me a moment, as we take a wander through a possible scenario...

MPs manage to pass legislation to block No Deal

The Conservatives remove the whip from rebel Tory MPs

The Conservatives are now a minority Government

Johnson calls for a General Election

MPs refuse

Now what does Johnson do?

In this situation if I were him I’m put May’s deal up for a vote again. Along the lines of ‘you want a deal, here’s the only deal on offer’.

Carlisle · 3 Sep 2019

krus_aragon said:
Don't forget the sizeable portion of the population who are thinking "we voted on this years back, why hasn't it been done yet?" , and don't care much about the political details.

Ok so if all else fails, at the very least hold a ‘’no deal’ confirmation referendum, & if the committed leavers are telling us the truth, the expected outcome won’t unduly concern them.

nidave · 3 Sep 2019

GB car sticker 'needed for UK drivers in Ireland' after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49558563

This is going to end well as this includes n. Ireland

dgl · 3 Sep 2019

Carlisle said:
Ok so if all else fails, at the very least hold a ‘’no deal’ confirmation referendum, & if the committed leavers are telling us the truth, the expected outcome won’t unduly concern them.

HA!, that's why they want to get on with it because if they went back to the people BoJo, Farage, Cummins and their other dodgy mates would find out what the electorate really thinks.
People are hopefully starting to realise that it is less about the PM taking back control from the EU but having full control to do whatever he wants without question, and removing anyone who disagrees. Now where has that happened before?

Xenophon PCDGS · 3 Sep 2019

I heard the usual "wailing wraith" in the background again this morning whilst BBC Breakfast TV was talking to politicians, which is always good for a laugh, as what the "wraith" was attempting to convey was totally lost by the lack of its sound quality...

404250 · 3 Sep 2019

That bloke who shouts constantly outside Westminster is beyond a joke now. He is ruining TV interviews and putting me (and I presume others) off watching live news and hearing both sides of the Brexit debate from politicians.

nlogax · 3 Sep 2019

404250 said:
That bloke who shouts constantly outside Westminster is beyond a joke now. He is ruining TV interviews and putting me (and I presume others) off watching live news and hearing both sides of the Brexit debate from politicians.

Christ knows. It makes political interviews almost unbearable to listen to, though I'm also mystified by the continual need to conduct them atop the College Green media circus right next to the megaphone madness. Sure it's convenient for access to politicians and journos but in the last few years it's attracted all manner of those in the background looking for free tv publicity.

cactustwirly · 3 Sep 2019

EM2 said:
Philip Hammond has just been reselected by his local party

But apart from that, I reckon the GE might not be the foregone conclusion that I thought earlier.
Bear with me a moment, as we take a wander through a possible scenario...

MPs manage to pass legislation to block No Deal

The Conservatives remove the whip from rebel Tory MPs

The Conservatives are now a minority Government

Johnson calls for a General Election

MPs refuse

Now what does Johnson do?

In that scenario, Johnson or Corbyn has 14 days to form a government or else a General election has to be called anyway

EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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