The Next General Election

KashmireHawker · 2 Sep 2019

Buckle in folks...

It seems very likely, that if a Anti-No Deal Law is passed in Parliament this week, the nation will be heading to the polls once again - if Parliament gives approval or a VONC was passed.

The Cabinet meets later, with all odds suggesting that a GE motion will be moved, if No Deal is prevented in statute.

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DarloRich · 2 Sep 2019

It will be held after 31st October to ensure no deal.

Mag_seven · 2 Sep 2019

Labour need to get rid of Corbyn if they have to stand any chance.

DarloRich · 2 Sep 2019

Mag_seven said:
Labour need to get rid of Corbyn if they have to stand any chance.

they wont......................

( hence why I wont vote for them)

507021 · 2 Sep 2019

Mag_seven said:
Labour need to get rid of Corbyn if they have to stand any chance.

I have to agree, and I'm a member of the Labour Party (although I don't know how much longer that'll be the case).

DarloRich · 2 Sep 2019

507021 said:
I have to agree, and I'm a member of the Labour Party (although I don't know how much longer that'll be the case).

i am not anymore. Got told once too often to persist off and vote for someone else. So i did...........

And that is a really big problem. Labour simply aren't going to build the kind of broad coalition of voters they need to take power. How many seats will they take from the SNP in Scotland? How many seats will they take in middle England?

Most rational people see Corbyn as a complete liability if not an actual danger to the country. That isnt some kind of media plot. It is simply fact. He isnt up to it.

ComUtoR · 2 Sep 2019

YouGov Voting intention survey.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...g-intention-con-33-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-12-

Following the news that Parliament will be prorogued in September, the latest YouGov voting intention survey sees the Conservatives continue to hold on to their double-digit lead over Labour. The Tories are on 33% (from 34% immediately prior to the prorogation news) while Labour's voter share remains unchanged at 22%. The Lib Dems vote share has reverted to a more consistent level of 21%, having dropped to 17% in the previous survey.

Elsewhere, the Brexit Party holds 12% of the vote (from 13%) and the Greens likewise have 7% (from 8%).

Con - 33%
Lab - 22%
Lib Dem - 21%
Brexit - 12%
Green - 7%
Other - 6%

Bantamzen · 2 Sep 2019

ComUtoR said:
YouGov Voting intention survey.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...g-intention-con-33-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-12-

Con - 33%
Lab - 22%
Lib Dem - 21%
Brexit - 12%
Green - 7%
Other - 6%

I know we take opinion polls with a pinch of salt, but that does kind of demonstrate what we might expect from a General Election. A very hung Parliament with lots of horse trading required to form anything like cohesive coalitions, and all after a no deal crash out. It would be chaos for months in which time major trade deals with our largest trading partners would be all but impossible. I think I might go and work in Spain at some bar....

507021 · 2 Sep 2019

DarloRich said:
i am not anymore. Got told once too often to persist off and vote for someone else. So i did...........

And that is a really big problem. Labour simply aren't going to build the kind of broad coalition of voters they need to take power. How many seats will they take from the SNP in Scotland? How many seats will they take in middle England?

Most rational people see Corbyn as a complete liability if not an actual danger to the country. That isnt some kind of media plot. It is simply fact. He isnt up to it.

You're spot on there. I've lost count of how many times I've been called a Blairite or told I'm a member of the wrong political party. To be fair, my local CLP is good, but others have felt very unwelcoming.

To me, the Labour Party currently feels more like a movement which has no desire to actually get into power, and until that changes then I won't be voting Labour again. I voted Labour in 2017 because I like my current MP, however he's standing down at the next election, so I'll be spoiling my ballot paper until Labour elects a new leader who can unite the party and has a chance of winning an election.

thejuggler · 2 Sep 2019

Boris has said whip will be removed from any Tory voting with the opposition, so he's then running a minority Government and a GE is inevitable.

All these moves are part of the game.

Arglwydd Golau · 2 Sep 2019

DarloRich said:
i am not anymore. Got told once too often to persist off and vote for someone else. So i did...........
.

Sorry to hear that. however, from my point of view, I stuck with the Party when the Blair/Mandelson clique was exposed for what it was, through the Iraq war etc etc...so why do you, and others feel that they can't sign up to the values of the Labour movement just because they don't like the leader?
I'm not going to ask who you might vote for, but with the Liberals led by someone who is an apologist for Cameron and Osborne's austerity policies - which, in my view partly led to this crisis - then that only leaves the Greens (not a bad choice)

thenorthern · 2 Sep 2019

I can't see an election being called as last time the Conservative Party was doing well in the polls and they called an election they didn't do very well.

If one was called I would think Boris Johnson would struggle and Labour would get a majority.

507021 · 2 Sep 2019

Arglwydd Golau said:
Sorry to hear that. however, from my point of view, I stuck with the Party when the Blair/Mandelson clique was exposed for what it was, through the Iraq war etc etc...so why do you, and others feel that they can't sign up to the values of the Labour movement just because they don't like the leader?
I'm not going to ask who you might vote for, but with the Liberals led by someone who is an apologist for Cameron and Osborne's austerity policies - which, in my view partly led to this crisis - then that only leaves the Greens (not a bad choice)

I feel the way I do because I'm sick and tired of being called a "Blairite" and a "Tory" by other members of the party simply because I'm not as left wing as they are.

Comments like that don't really make me feel welcome in the party outside of my CLP.

Busaholic · 2 Sep 2019

Arglwydd Golau said:
Sorry to hear that. however, from my point of view, I stuck with the Party when the Blair/Mandelson clique was exposed for what it was, through the Iraq war etc etc...so why do you, and others feel that they can't sign up to the values of the Labour movement just because they don't like the leader?
I'm not going to ask who you might vote for, but with the Liberals led by someone who is an apologist for Cameron and Osborne's austerity policies - which, in my view partly led to this crisis - then that only leaves the Greens (not a bad choice)

I can appreciate all that, but in my neck of the woods and despite the low average incomes Labour has never been a player and the Tories seemingly can pull the wool over enough eyes to win most of the time, although Liberals and Liberal Democrats have had some representation over the years, particularly up to 2010. Our LD MP was one of the better ones, quite competent and not a watered-down Conservative, and was never a Cleggite, or Huhnite for that matter, so never rose in LD ranks. He lost his seat in 2015, though not by much, and repeated this in 2017, but he'll stand for them again and I'll vote for him. Labour here are lucky to get 10% of the vote, though I tend to vote Green in Euro and local elections, not that we've had any of the latter for about five years. I did vow I'd never vote LD again for agreeing to serve in the coalition, but it'll be as much a personal weak endorsement of the candidate and, more importantly, another vote to chalk up against our appalling arch-Brexit Tory incumbent.

hexagon789 · 2 Sep 2019

Bantamzen said:
I know we take opinion polls with a pinch of salt, but that does kind of demonstrate what we might expect from a General Election. A very hung Parliament with lots of horse trading required to form anything like cohesive coalitions, and all after a no deal crash out. It would be chaos for months in which time major trade deals with our largest trading partners would be all but impossible.

Baring in mind we use first-past-the-post, a quick run through a seat prediction site with those figures gives a Conservative majority of 90 and not a hung parliament.

Busaholic · 2 Sep 2019

hexagon789 said:
Baring in mind we use first-past-the-post, a quick run through a seat prediction site with those figures gives a Conservative majority of 90 and not a hung parliament.

The polls in 2017 predicted a considerable Tory majority, I recollect, when an election was called. Scotland is likely now to lose the vast majority of those Tory seats it gained last time, without which even the DUP couldn't have saved May.

hexagon789 · 2 Sep 2019

Busaholic said:
The polls in 2017 predicted a considerable Tory majority, I recollect, when an election was called. Scotland is likely now to lose the vast majority of those Tory seats it gained last time, without which even the DUP couldn't have saved May.

I'm not saying that's what's going to happen - just that translating those voteshares into seats is an imprecise art.

Busaholic · 2 Sep 2019

hexagon789 said:
I'm not saying that's what's going to happen - just that translating those voteshares into seats is an imprecise art.

I believe my prediction last time on here overstated the number of Tory seats by 3 :lol:

Bald Rick · 2 Sep 2019

Like it or not, a sizeable proportion of the electorate only vote in General Elections, and a sizeable proportion of them will vote on who they think will be the best leader for the country, not necessarily for party policies. And like it or not, there’s not many people who think Corbyn would be best leader for the country (not even in the Labour Party).

If a General Election happens on 14 October (I rate it 50:50, but the bookies are close to ‘dead cert’ territory) then a lot will depend on what Farage does. If he puts up candidates in marginal Conservative seats, then he will win a few and put a dent in the chances of a Conservative minority government. The Conservatives are already pretty certain to lose a few seats in remain areas to the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems and SNP may well get the opportunity to be kingmakers, and the price of that will be a delay to Brexit, a second referendum on Europe, and a second independence referendum in Scotland.

Finally if Labour don’t have a good showing, as seems likely, Corbyn will surely have to hang up his cap. This would leave a clear field for Kier Starmer, who might well be able to reunite the party and capitalise on the Tories’ self destruction.

It is sure to be an interesting few months, but it does rely on sufficient Conservative MPs to be willing to make a stand this week.

507021 · 2 Sep 2019

Bald Rick said:
Like it or not, a sizeable proportion of the electorate only vote in General Elections, and a sizeable proportion of them will vote on who they think will be the best leader for the country, not necessarily for party policies. And like it or not, there’s not many people who think Corbyn would be best leader for the country (not even in the Labour Party).

If a General Election happens on 14 October (I rate it 50:50, but the bookies are close to ‘dead cert’ territory) then a lot will depend on what Farage does. If he puts up candidates in marginal Conservative seats, then he will win a few and put a dent in the chances of a Conservative minority government. The Conservatives are already pretty certain to lose a few seats in remain areas to the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems and SNP may well get the opportunity to be kingmakers, and the price of that will be a delay to Brexit, a second referendum on Europe, and a second independence referendum in Scotland.

Finally if Labour don’t have a good showing, as seems likely, Corbyn will surely have to hang up his cap. This would leave a clear field for Kier Starmer, who might well be able to reunite the party and capitalise on the Tories’ self destruction.

It is sure to be an interesting few months, but it does rely on sufficient Conservative MPs to be willing to make a stand this week.

Agree with all of this.

Keir Starmer would be my choice as the next Labour leader, but I suppose we'll have to wait and see what happens.

433N · 3 Sep 2019

I don't understand the point of a GE at this time ; I don't think the constitution of parliament will change significantly.

I think Johnson just wants to try to spin it as a mandate for a No Deal Brexit. It won't be. If he wants that, he should hold a referendum on it.

I hate this government. They are sneaky, devious and dictatorial in pursuit of their goals. I don't know who wants them. A government that you definitely can't trust.

Killingworth · 3 Sep 2019

thenorthern said:
I can't see an election being called as last time the Conservative Party was doing well in the polls and they called an election they didn't do very well.

If one was called I would think Boris Johnson would struggle and Labour would get a majority.

I have never taken part in any form of political protest, until last Saturday. Enough was enough.

It appears it was organised by Labour. Organised in the sense they had said where to go and when and had produced speakers largely inaudible to most of us. Most I spoke to were of similar mind, totally p.. d off with the lot of them.

I did not detect a massive swing to Labour. I did detect a sneaking admiration for Boris for getting some sort of grip, right or wrong. That said he wouldn't be getting many votes from that crowd. The placards were mostly home made, the slogans expressing frustration with the entire process.

Corbyn is toxic. He alone is losing Labour any election anywhere before a candidate can be selected. Many lifetime supporters wouldn't stand for the party today. That leads to many changing the habits of a lifetime. They may vote for another party.

On Saturday I heard a number say they'd never vote Tory again. In Scotland the SDP should do very well, with LibDems picking up a seat or two. In England the unknown factor is the Brexit party. They might win one or two seats, but how they split the vote in former Labour and Tory heartlands will influence the results unpredictably.

Boris must be very wary about an election that seems destined to produce a hung parliament, but due to all the forms of effective abstenion voting he could even win outright. Unlikely, but a Labour victory under Corbyn won't happen when a Labour led demonstration in a Labour stronghold city was so weak in its support.

bussnapperwm · 3 Sep 2019

I used to be a Tory voter but over the last couple of years, as I've grown firmly against the Tory policies, I've swung more towards Labour.

DarloRich · 3 Sep 2019

Arglwydd Golau said:
Sorry to hear that. however, from my point of view, I stuck with the Party when the Blair/Mandelson clique was exposed for what it was, through the Iraq war etc etc...so why do you, and others feel that they can't sign up to the values of the Labour movement just because they don't like the leader?
I'm not going to ask who you might vote for, but with the Liberals led by someone who is an apologist for Cameron and Osborne's austerity policies - which, in my view partly led to this crisis - then that only leaves the Greens (not a bad choice)

God yes the awful Blair. So awful he won 3 elections and introduced all manner of legislation that actually helped people in this country. Shall we list the achievements of the Blair governments again? But yeah. Iraqi.

Can you honestly not see why people think Corbyn is a disaster? The edited highlights, in no particular order, should be enough:

Support for IRA murderers and killers ( inviting them to parliament weeks after they attempted to assassinate the PM)
The suggestion put about by the clown army that their hero played any part in the IN Peace process ( he didn't other than to support the IRA)
The suggestion that is meetings with the IRA were part of a dialogue towards peace. They weren't. They were to support a nasty band of killers ( how many loyalist terrorists did he have a "dialogue" with?)
His inability to issue a simple statement condemning IRA murderers.
His serial ( almost comic) disloyalty to the Labour party in Parliamentary votes
The hypocrisy about others showing the same " disloyalty" since he became leader
Attendance at memorials for terrorist murders.
Laying a wrath to commemorate terrorist murderers
Posing with and inviting any number of Palestinian wrong uns to Parliament
The obsession with Palestine seemingly beyond everything else ( as if anyone in this country, beyond Corbyn fans, really cares)
The unwillingness to deal with obvious antisemitism within the ranks of his fans and the fact he facilitates this filth in the first place
His completely bonkers position on Brexit that tries ( and fails) to be all things to all men
His facilitation of Brexit
His involvement with the Stop The (American but not Russian) War coalition
His appearance on such outlets as Russia Today, Press TV which issue propaganda for such lovely, liberal regimes.
His desire to break up NATO
His refusal to answer the question: Would you defend an attacked NATO ally
His desire to remove Trident and end our nuclear deterrent
His constant failure to get close to winning an election ( how many times now?)
The complete sh*t show that was his response to Salisbury chemical weapons incident and his total unwillingness to look facts in the face and criticise Russia.
His refusal to back airstrikes in Syria against IS and his refusal to condemn Asad for chemical weapons attacks (A regime backed by Russia)
His desire to mollycoodle an aggressive Russia rather than stand up to them
The political views and pasts of his key advisers
The desire to present a moral equivalency between the actions of IS and the actions of the western "imperialists"
His denial of Serbian war crimes
His lack of support for the intervention in Kosovo and his denial of genocide there

Will that do for now? They are just off the top of my head. You might be able to accept that because he is "anti austerity" all of the above can be overlooked. I am not.

PS: Of course all this will simply indicate that i am brainwashed by the MSM and the establishment or some-such nonsense.

Killingworth said:
Corbyn is toxic. He alone is losing Labour any election anywhere before a candidate can be selected. Many lifetime supporters wouldn't stand for the party today. That leads to many changing the habits of a lifetime. They may vote for another party.

I have done. Green in the locals and Lib Dems in the Euros. Every election since I was able to vote was for Labour ( even in the areas where they weigh conservative votes, even in the pointless crime commissioner elections). Never again with Corbyn in charge.

507021 said:
Keir Starmer would be my choice as the next Labour leader, but I suppose we'll have to wait and see what happens.

Bald Rick said:
Finally if Labour don’t have a good showing, as seems likely, Corbyn will surely have to hang up his cap. This would leave a clear field for Kier Starmer, who might well be able to reunite the party and capitalise on the Tories’ self destruction.

But the lunatic fringe and their momentum chums now control the party and the mechanisms of the party bureaucracy. They will decide who comes after Corbyn and it will be another of their favoured crackpots.

507021 said:
To me, the Labour Party currently feels more like a movement which has no desire to actually get into power

Correct, it is an immature student union type protest movement obsessed with Palestine while facilitating a really quite unpleasant antisemitism rather than a serious political party .

Bald Rick said:
Like it or not, a sizeable proportion of the electorate only vote in General Elections, and a sizeable proportion of them will vote on who they think will be the best leader for the country, not necessarily for party policies. And like it or not, there’s not many people who think Corbyn would be best leader for the country (not even in the Labour Party).

but it is all an establishment msm plot to deny sainted Corbyn power becuase they are terrified of him ( or something). As if! This mythical "establishment" doesn't have to do anything to discredit Corbyn. He manages that himself!

bussnapperwm · 3 Sep 2019

DarloRich said:
His involvement with the Stop The (American but not Russian) War coalition

His appearance on such outlets as Russia Today, Press TV which issue propaganda for such lovely, liberal regimes.

His desire to break up NATO

His refusal to answer the question: Would you defend an attacked NATO ally

His desire to remove Trident and end our nuclear deterrent

His constant failure to get close to winning an election ( how many times now?)

The complete sh*t show that was his response to Salisbury chemical weapons incident and his total unwillingness to look facts in the face and criticise Russia.

His refusal to back airstrikes in Syria against IS and his refusal to condemn Asad for chemical weapons attacks (A regime backed by Russia)

His desire to mollycoodle an aggressive Russia rather than stand up to them

The political views and pasts of his key advisers

The desire to present a moral equivalency between the actions of IS and the actions of the western "imperialists"

His denial of Serbian war crimes

His lack of support for the intervention in Kosovo and his denial of genocide there

PS: Of course all this will simply indicate that i am brainwashed by the MSM and the establishment or some-such nonsense.

Just a few points I want to comment on of yours.

Why Shouldn't a political figure feature on the media outlet of his choice. George Galloway and Alex Salmond both appear on RT often so where's your decrying of them?
NATO is not needed in this day and age, nor is "special weapons". They are a hang over from the Cold War and have no place in the world.
Salisbury. Where's the independent, non government sponsored, proof that it was Russia. Wasn't they testing with Novichok in Iran and some NATO countries (including the UK) at roughly the same time?
Where's the independent proof that there was chemical attacks sponsored by the Syria government?
Russia. They have not moved against us, so why should we towards them.

Oh, I must be brainwashed by the likes of RT and other similar outlets.

Killingworth · 3 Sep 2019

Thanks to Mrs May's somewhat unwise decision to hold an election in 2017 she lost her majority and beheaded the LibDems.

In their haste to get a candidate to oppose Nick Clegg Labour selected a man who should never have been put forward let alone chosen. The man who nearly won for them in 2015 didn't put himself forward. Why? He was of cabinet level potential and a great loss. As it is the opposition is a man down until any election.

Any who explore the history of how Labour went from distant 2nd, to third, then won, but is almost certain to lose again may be able to see what's wrong with Corbyn's party.

DarloRich · 3 Sep 2019

bussnapperwm said:
Why Shouldn't a political figure feature on the media outlet of his choice. George Galloway and Alex Salmond both appear on RT often so where's your decrying of them?

Neither of those men are leader of the opposition nor are they seeking my vote. I am also against people taking money from oppressive regimes and giving respectability to the television version of Pravda and then trying to tell me they are some kind of progressive.

bussnapperwm said:
NATO is not needed in this day and age, nor is "special weapons". They are a hang over from the Cold War and have no place in the world.

Right. Absolutely no nutters out there in charge of bonkers regimes that might have an issue with us. But then, of course, that will be our fault if there are. That is what Corbyn tends to think after all.

bussnapperwm said:
Salisbury. Where's the independent, non government sponsored, proof that it was Russia. Wasn't they testing with Novichok in Iran and some NATO countries (including the UK) at roughly the same time?

Where's the independent proof that there was chemical attacks sponsored by the Syria government?

Russia. They have not moved against us, so why should we towards them.

Yawn. Straight out of the Corbyn fan boy playbook.

Spamcan81 · 3 Sep 2019

Lifetime Tory voter until this Brexit nonsense but no chance I’ll vote for the shower that’s in power now. Lib Dems for me as they are against Brexit and occupy the middle ground deserted by the other two parties.

Aictos · 3 Sep 2019

I would vote Labour but with the current regime in place, I can’t see myself voting for them.

Get rid of the far left leadership and the left wing mob called Momentum, bring in someone who not only can unite the party but also brings sensible alternative policies to the table who shows they can provide a alternative Government even if this means breaking away and to form a new party called Labour with the existing party being renamed the Communist Party of the UK.

In any way, Corbyn must go!

thenorthern · 3 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
I have never taken part in any form of political protest, until last Saturday. Enough was enough.

It appears it was organised by Labour. Organised in the sense they had said where to go and when and had produced speakers largely inaudible to most of us. Most I spoke to were of similar mind, totally p.. d off with the lot of them.

I did not detect a massive swing to Labour. I did detect a sneaking admiration for Boris for getting some sort of grip, right or wrong. That said he wouldn't be getting many votes from that crowd. The placards were mostly home made, the slogans expressing frustration with the entire process.

Corbyn is toxic. He alone is losing Labour any election anywhere before a candidate can be selected. Many lifetime supporters wouldn't stand for the party today. That leads to many changing the habits of a lifetime. They may vote for another party.

On Saturday I heard a number say they'd never vote Tory again. In Scotland the SDP should do very well, with LibDems picking up a seat or two. In England the unknown factor is the Brexit party. They might win one or two seats, but how they split the vote in former Labour and Tory heartlands will influence the results unpredictably.

Boris must be very wary about an election that seems destined to produce a hung parliament, but due to all the forms of effective abstenion voting he could even win outright. Unlikely, but a Labour victory under Corbyn won't happen when a Labour led demonstration in a Labour stronghold city was so weak in its support.

I think a couple of things from Boris and the wider Party will cause the Conservatives to lose a lot of votes if an election was called, several things that would are:

Net Migration, its been a Conservative pledge to get it down to tens of thousands for the past 9 years they haven't anywhere near achieved this. Would voters trust them for a fourth election in a row? Also Boris is rumored to want to scrap the pledge which would annoy a lot of Conservative voters if the party was seen to ignore their concerns about immigration.
Brexit, in 2015 the party said they would hold a referendum and the people would decide, we had the vote and leave won. In 2017 Theresa May called an election so she could implement Brexit and the party has failed to do that would voters trust them again?
Heathrow expansion, Boris pledged to lie down in front of the bulldozers but has now backtracked, the press and Labour party will attack him for this making him look like an idiot and he will struggle.

The Next General Election

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