EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

dosxuk · 4 Sep 2019

Geezertronic said:
The EU is not to blame either because the EU were never going to negotiate properly and seriously with the UK Government when there is no pressure to do so, the continued actions of politicians to force that narrative, continue to extend the deadline, and remove No Deal off the table has seen to that

The EU have negotiated properly and seriously though. They have at all times stood as one, with clear lines about what can and can't be negotiated, and respected the lines that we have drawn.

The fact that our PM drew those lines with no consultation with parliament about what they would actually vote for, and then took us to an election which reduced the number of MPs she could get to vote for her idea, and then upset most of them by ignoring them and proposing and agreeing a universally unpopular deal is not the fault of the EU.

If we had been more flexible, the EU would have been more flexible. Demanding a deal or we'll shoot ourselves is not going to pressure the EU into submission.

Too many people are treating this as some sort of war now - we have to be victorious against the EU or we'll lose face. The fact that a victory would be us coming to a mutually acceptable agreement, not running away with our tails between our legs carrying our ball home appears to be lost on the rabid beleavers.

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EM2 · 4 Sep 2019

'It is the fourth of September in the year 2783, and it is time for the weekly ritual of the UK Parliament to vote on the Brexit Deal. The origins of this quaint tradition have been lost in the mists of time, but some things never change.
The Prime Minister will state that the people voted to leave (although no-one now knows what they were leaving), and also that Brexit means Brexit.
There will be discussion of taking No Deal 'off the table' (a table was a piece of furniture in ancient times, where one would often eat meals. No-one knows why No Deal would be on such an item).
Someone will say that 'they need us more than we need them' although no-one knows who or what 'they' are.
The Deal will, as always, be defeated in the vote, and, as always, be voted on again in one week's time.
Britain loves tradition!'

edwin_m · 4 Sep 2019

Geezertronic said:
That is wholly wrong. Parliament overwhelmingly voted to trigger Article 50 following the referendum result - they didn't have to because as some commentators keep saying the referendum was advisory. if it was advisory, why did Parliament overwhelmingly vote to trigger Article 50?

Parliament was doing all it could to action the result of the referendum!

Article 50 states that it has to be invoked by the state wishing to leave before the Commission can start negotiating leaving terms. So if they were to respect the result of the referendum that would have to do that, which also has the consequence of starting the clock towards a no deal if neither a deal nor an extension is agreed.

Yes Parliament could have repudiated the referendum result but that would have taken us into "a very dark place" to quote somebody I won't name. Despite the major defects of the campaign and the nebulous nature of the Leave option, I can't see how it would have been democratic just to ignore it. The situation is different now, because:

We know the available options for leaving are very different from, and much worse for Britain than, what was predicted by the Leave campaign in 2016
We know somewhat more about the deliberate lies, devious and sometimes illegal tactics of the Leave campaign
Three years has passed, during which many people have joined and left the electorate
The 2017 Conservative manifesto promised a hard Brexit with a deal, but voters did not elect a majority Conservative government
Nearly every opinion poll in the last few months indicates that if the referendum was re-run, people would vote to remain by a majority greater than that for Leave in 2016

Killingworth · 4 Sep 2019

Let's make this logically simple.

We need to "EXIT from BREXIT" and prevent further damage.

Seeing Rees-Mogg's arrogant, insolent, supercilious frame stretched out on the front bench yesterday might almost trump loathing of Corbyn!

Geezertronic · 4 Sep 2019

edwin_m said:
Parliament was doing all it could to action the result of the referendum!

Article 50 states that it has to be invoked by the state wishing to leave before the Commission can start negotiating leaving terms. So if they were to respect the result of the referendum that would have to do that, which also has the consequence of starting the clock towards a no deal if neither a deal nor an extension is agreed.

Yes Parliament could have repudiated the referendum result but that would have taken us into "a very dark place" to quote somebody I won't name. Despite the major defects of the campaign and the nebulous nature of the Leave option, I can't see how it would have been democratic just to ignore it. The situation is different now, because:

We know the available options for leaving are very different from, and much worse for Britain than, what was predicted by the Leave campaign in 2016

We know somewhat more about the deliberate lies, devious and sometimes illegal tactics of the Leave campaign

Three years has passed, during which many people have joined and left the electorate

The 2017 Conservative manifesto promised a hard Brexit with a deal, but voters did not elect a majority Conservative government

Nearly every opinion poll in the last few months indicates that if the referendum was re-run, people would vote to remain by a majority greater than that for Leave in 2016

So instead of all of this messing around, why doesn't an Anti-Brexit MP put up a bill to revoke Article 50 and to remain in the EU instead of all of this extend nonsense. That would surely be passed by Parliament because any Deal is most likely to be rejected again so it is pointless taking No Deal off the table as that will only extend the pain for us all

Geezertronic · 4 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
Seeing Rees-Mogg's arrogant, insolent, supercilious frame stretched out on the front bench yesterday might almost trump loathing of Corbyn!

I actually think it shows the exasperation that we all feel over the constant political bickering. Either they allow Government to press ahead with leaving on 31st October (Deal or No Deal) or someone tables a motion to revoke Article 50 and see if that passes.

geoffk · 4 Sep 2019

In fact Parliament has never voted to leave the EU! The (advisory) referendum was not followed by a debate in Parliament; instead David Cameron ran away and his successor at once declared the result a mandate, a "decision of the British people" when it was no such thing. Yes, Parliament voted to trigger Article 50, but that was to notify the EU of a decision already made "in accordance with...constitutional requirements"; it was not the decision itself. So where was the decision? I think it's been established that Theresa May made the decision. I agree with #19682 that so much has changed in the last 3+ years that a fresh referendum would certainly not be undemocratic. (I'm not a lawyer).

fowler9 · 4 Sep 2019

Geezertronic said:
I actually think it shows the exasperation that we all feel over the constant political bickering. Either they allow Government to press ahead with leaving on 31st October (Deal or No Deal) or someone tables a motion to revoke Article 50 and see if that passes.

Oh the poor wee lamb. And to think some might say he had a massive hand in disrupting the whole process to his own ends. How very dare they.

edwin_m · 4 Sep 2019

Geezertronic said:
So instead of all of this messing around, why doesn't an Anti-Brexit MP put up a bill to revoke Article 50 and to remain in the EU instead of all of this extend nonsense. That would surely be passed by Parliament because any Deal is most likely to be rejected again so it is pointless taking No Deal off the table as that will only extend the pain for us all

The ex-Tory rebels are mostly people who supported some form of deal, not supporters of remaining. Most of them probably supported Remain in 2016 but changed their minds when the saw the referendum result and/or because it became official party policy. Both spurious arguments in my view, but they would be unlikely to vote to revoke or even to have a referendum right now. There are also several Labour MPs with the same viewpoint - about 15 suggested this morning that May's deal should be resurrected - probably to universal groans from everyone else.

And even after all this time, and from an ardently remain point of view, I'd suggest it's undemocratic just to withdraw Article 50 except as a last resort to prevent a default to leaving with no deal. A further referendum, no deal versus remain and possibly including May's deal under some sort of 3-way STV arrangement, is the best chance we have of closing down the deep divisions that have opened up since 2016. My hope is that enough MPs see this to deliver a majority (it was pretty close in the indicative votes even without the payroll vote) once all the alternatives are again ruled out.

Strat-tastic · 4 Sep 2019

Bantamzen said:
That's easy:

"In 2015, the government of the United Kingdom proposed a referendum to leave the European Union, and in 2016 52% of the voting electorate voted to leave. From then until 2019, successive Prime Ministers failed to agree deals that would satisfy all concerned parties. Then in late 2019, the UK government broke down, which led to several decades of yearly General Elections, and almost 20 further referendum to try and figure out what the phrase "Brexit means Brexit" actually meant. In 2057, in a desperate attempt to resolve this the UK launched a trillion pound space programme to make First Contact with a higher intelligence, despite the various clones of Brexit Founder Nigel Farage attempting to rig markets in order to buy nuclear weapons to supper such attempts.

20 years later the the UK Prime Minister, a clone derived from the DNA of such prominent politicians as Boris Jonhson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Kenneth Clarke, a small boil found on the backside of Jeremy Corbyn, Felix the Cat and some bloke who happened to pass the laboratory at the time, proudly announced that contact had been made. When pressed on the what message was, the Prime Minister admitted that the higher beings had seen the message, but pretended not be at home by hiding behind their intergalactic couch. From 2077 to the present day the UK has continued by having bi-weekly elections, referendums and bingo matches in an attempt to work out what "Hiding from Brexit behind the couch" means...."

<Wibble>

The state of the nation :lol:

Aictos · 4 Sep 2019

One question, how do members here propose resolving the Irish question?

DarloRich · 4 Sep 2019

I note from twitter that the Gina Miller / John Major case about the advice given to the Queen in relation to the prorogation of parliament is to be heard by the Lord Chief Justice, The Master of the Rolls and the President of the Queens Bench.

These are the three top judges in England and Wales which shows how seriously this matter is being taken.

nlogax · 4 Sep 2019

Geezertronic said:
So instead of all of this messing around, why doesn't an Anti-Brexit MP put up a bill to revoke Article 50 and to remain in the EU instead of all of this extend nonsense. That would surely be passed by Parliament because any Deal is most likely to be rejected again so it is pointless taking No Deal off the table as that will only extend the pain for us all

Politicians agreed to carry out this godforsaken 'will of the people' mantra to the best of their abilities. Those currently steering this Bill through both Houses houses still want to respect the referendum result but in a way that will result in the least amount of damage to the economy and to the country and union as a whole. Very few (knowingly) voted to actually be worse off or be at a heightened risk of losing their jobs or livelihoods. Removing no deal from the equation is the most obvious way of mitigating those negative factors.

I've heard it said that revocation of A50 would make it more difficult to re-invoke it for a second time - and I can't help but think there'd have to be a re-run of the referendum first. You fancy going through the last three years all over again? I sure as hell don't.

fowler9 · 4 Sep 2019

Aictos said:
One question, how do members here propose resolving the Irish question?

By remaining in the EU or using the withdrawal agreement Theresa May got.

Carlisle · 4 Sep 2019

Aictos said:
One question, how do members here propose resolving the Irish question?

It appeared Boris planned to offer a technological solution similar to the Malthouse Compromise proposals previously backed by the DUP at the October EU summit and if it failed simply go for no deal on Oct 31st and rely on previous assurances given by all other parties that a hard border wouldn’t be erected from day 1

Bantamzen · 4 Sep 2019

The Bill to block a possible no deal has passed it's first vote, and by a slightly larger majority than yesterday's vote. Is the BoJoBot about to take the whip away from more Conservative MPs and further undermine his party's position?

Taken from BBC Live Feed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49557734

MPs have voted to approve the bill at second reading.

Ayes:329

Noes:300

Majority:29

fowler9 · 4 Sep 2019

Carlisle said:
It appeared Boris planned to offer a technological solution similar to the Malthouse Compromise proposals previously backed by the DUP at the October EU summit and if that failed to get approval, exit with no deal on Oct 31st

Thats like offering everyone an Iron Man suit when they don't exist. I seriously can't believe what this country is doing to itself. Ha ha.

Aictos · 4 Sep 2019

fowler9 said:
By remaining in the EU or using the withdrawal agreement Theresa May got.

Try getting MPs to back that agreement is akin to Corbyn winning the next General Election aka unlikely.

Carlisle · 4 Sep 2019

fowler9 said:
Thats like offering everyone an Iron Man suit when they don't exist. I seriously can't believe what this country is doing to itself. Ha ha.

Yes, presumably a basic statement whose only purpose is towards Brexit supporters who weren’t sufficiently interested or concerned with the Irish question to hopefully blame the EU in a no deal scenario.

AM9 · 4 Sep 2019

fowler9 said:
Thats like offering everyone an Iron Man suit when they don't exist. I seriously can't believe what this country is doing to itself. Ha ha.

None of us here, (unless there are some closet Government ministers posting in the forum) can change the current situation. In the interests of personal safety, I think it is best to sit back and let it roll on until something happens or we are asked to vote.
Two years ago, there was a possibility that we might have left just over 5 months ago. Well we haven't and we are still fully paid up members of the EU with all the laws in place that protect us as citizens, - what's not to like? Apart from a few citizens and some businesses who have decided that evern if the UK does stay in the EU, the productivity here is so low and the societal unrest is so toxic that they are better off in the committed nations of the EU. The politicians, (this week its the leavers turn) are frantically shooting themselves in the foot, - some of the more paunchy ones look like they might explode all over the Newsnight studio.

Howardh · 4 Sep 2019

I'll give a link to this; it's a day-by-day updated poll of polls. https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Today (Weds 4th) it shows
CON = 34%
LAB = 24
LD = 18
BXT = 12
GRN = 6
SNP = 4

DerekC · 4 Sep 2019

Aictos said:
One question, how do members here propose resolving the Irish question?

There are two ways:

a) Stay in the EU

b) Leave but let Northern Ireland have a special relationship with the EU.

I suspect that if Mrs May hadn't done her deal with the DUP we would have ended up with (b). It seems to me to give Northern Ireland the best of both worlds.

Aictos · 4 Sep 2019

DerekC said:
There are two ways:

a) Stay in the EU

b) Leave but let Northern Ireland have a special relationship with the EU.

I suspect that if Mrs May hadn't done her deal with the DUP we would have ended up with (b). It seems to me to give Northern Ireland the best of both worlds.

The only reason May did a deal with the DUP was simply because she didn’t have a majority if she did then she wouldn’t have needed them.

EM2 · 4 Sep 2019

Stephen Kinnock's amendment, which surrounds May's Withdrawal Agreement Bill (an improved offer which emerged from cross-party talks last year), was passed despite the No lobby being full as the Government (aka the 'noes') failed to put up any tellers.
The Bill was never put before Parliament, as May was given the boot before she was able to put it to a vote.
From the Mirror:

Kinnock tabled an amendment which would bring the Bill back for a vote as part of a delay to Brexit.

In the debate ahead of a planned vote on the amendment, Mr Kinnock said: "It is a travesty that Parliament did not get to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill as it was very different to the former prime minister's blind Brexit and provided far more clarity on EU and UK relations."

Supporters insisted Mr Kinnock's amendment did not scupper the cross-party Bill against no deal - it simply adds a detail to it.

Mr Kinnock said before the vote: "For avoidance of doubt, this *complements* the Bill.

"Extension should have a specific purpose - to pass a Brexit deal - so as to avoid being in the same place in January."

The Government are not dim (despite some appearances to the contrary), so I can't believe this failure to provide tellers was an oversight. I just can't fathom out what shenanigans they are up to...

edwin_m · 4 Sep 2019

EM2 said:
The Government are not dim (despite some appearances to the contrary), so I can't believe this failure to provide tellers was an oversight. I just can't fathom out what shenanigans they are up to...

Creating an escape route to get May's deal through if they can't get whatever it is they want, possibly to go back to the EU later with extreme menaces to remove the backstop? However I think the ultra-extremists (as compared to the just extremists) have now said that there is no deal of any form that would be acceptable, so I can't see how they can get the votes for it unless it's the only alternative to no deal and large numbers of their former members and other parties fall behind it.

EM2 · 4 Sep 2019

Called it...

EM2 said:
Bear with me a moment, as we take a wander through a possible scenario...

MPs manage to pass legislation to block No Deal

The Conservatives remove the whip from rebel Tory MPs

The Conservatives are now a minority Government

Johnson calls for a General Election

MPs refuse

Now what does Johnson do?

DarloRich · 5 Sep 2019

Carlisle said:
Yes, presumably a basic statement whose only purpose is towards Brexit supporters who weren’t sufficiently interested or concerned with the Irish question to hopefully blame the EU in a no deal scenario.

that is the plan.

EM2 said:
I just can't fathom out what shenanigans they are up to...

No deal v May's deal: on the basis you asked for a deal and this is the best we can get. De Piffle hopes that will persuade enough MP's to vote for the no deal scenario allowing him to claim victory, win back the brexit crackpots from Farage and win an election BEFORE there is a fan brown stuff interaction and the reality of no deal hits real people hard.

geoffk · 5 Sep 2019

Aictos said:
One question, how do members here propose resolving the Irish question?

a) revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU
b) go for a "soft brexit" remaining in the SM and CU
c) united Ireland

Worth pointing out that this is not just about how long it takes a lorry to cross the border; it's about identity. The GFA gives folk in NI the right to choose whether to be British or Irish and to carry either passport.

fowler9 · 5 Sep 2019

Sorry guys and gals. The leave side are a joke and always have been. Boris Johnson is the final nail in the coffin. I would have been up for Mays deal but this is just farse after farse after farse. Absolutely nuts.

Carlisle · 5 Sep 2019

geoffk said:
The GFA gives folk in NI the right to choose whether to be British or Irish and to carry either passport.

True, I think the clues in the word ‘Agreement’ not one side just changing x y z on Oct 31st regardless of whether the other side agrees or not

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