EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

oliMw · 5 Sep 2019

fowler9 said:
Sorry guys and gals. The leave side are a joke and always have been. Boris Johnson is the final nail in the coffin. I would have been up for Mays deal but this is just farse after farse after farse. Absolutely nuts.

A similar thought process with myself. If the government had pushed for a softer Brexit, or even May's deal I would've likely have accepted it, bucked up and moved on. However the actions of those like the ERG, Johnson, and the Brexit media to call people such as myself 'traitors' or 'enemies of democracy' has hardened my line to a point where I now want a second referendum (something I was a long time apprehensive about).

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Howardh · 5 Sep 2019

fowler9 said:
Sorry guys and gals. The leave side are a joke and always have been. Boris Johnson is the final nail in the coffin. I would have been up for Mays deal but this is just farse after farse after farse. Absolutely nuts.

How can they manage the UK after we leave (leaving is now looking more and more unlikely) when they can't even manage the easy bit - leaving??
With an on-line bookie "Boris Johnson to be the shortest serving PM ever (under 119 days)" 7/5. I don't bet and I have no idea whether 7/5 is good or bad or all stations inbetween. Anyone??

Howardh · 5 Sep 2019

oliMw said:
A similar thought process with myself. If the government had pushed for a softer Brexit, or even May's deal I would've likely have accepted it, bucked up and moved on. However the actions of those like the ERG, Johnson, and the Brexit media to call people such as myself 'traitors' or 'enemies of democracy' has hardened my line to a point where I now want a second referendum (something I was a long time apprehensive about).

I'm quite sure if there had been a second referendum directly after the first offering that Norway+++ option I'm sure the country would have voted for it and we would have been out by now. If we eventually remain then leavers can only blame it on themselves for not having a plan, not having a clue and not even realising we share a land border with the EU which they daren't harden - even though I told them to their face (MP Green) before the vote.
When asked difficult questions, all I ever got back when they couldn't answer was "we're leaving".

Killingworth · 5 Sep 2019

There is a very big danger that groups of like minded people fail to understand the strength of the opinions of the other side.

If there were another referendum today it could go either way and Brexit would either win or only lose by 2 or 3%. That would not solve our problem.

If we have an election the loathing for Johnson and Corbyn will cancel out and we'll be hung again.

The sensible course would be for a higher authority to say STOP. Take a long time out. You've had 3 years to get this clear. You haven't. At this rate you'll not have done it by 2002 when the next election is due. Pack it in. Come back after having a full review and we'll have another referendum in 5 years.

Both sides would object but they'd have time to prepare reasoned cases in ways that the public can understand

Will that happen? Not a chance.

Common sense is not impartial.

Ianno87 · 5 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
There is a very big danger that groups of like minded people fail to understand the strength of the opinions of the other side.

If there were another referendum today it could go either way and Brexit would either win or only lose by 2 or 3%. That would not solve our problem.

^^^^^ This. ^^^^^

Some social/political circles are such bubbles, there's a genuine belief that a second referendum would somehow be decisive.

It won't be - it'll just prove the country is just as divided as ever. It really will be the worst outcome (except for No Deal).

Bantamzen · 5 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
There is a very big danger that groups of like minded people fail to understand the strength of the opinions of the other side.

If there were another referendum today it could go either way and Brexit would either win or only lose by 2 or 3%. That would not solve our problem.

If we have an election the loathing for Johnson and Corbyn will cancel out and we'll be hung again.

The sensible course would be for a higher authority to say STOP. Take a long time out. You've had 3 years to get this clear. You haven't. At this rate you'll not have done it by 2002 when the next election is due. Pack it in. Come back after having a full review and we'll have another referendum in 5 years.

Both sides would object but they'd have time to prepare reasoned cases in ways that the public can understand

Will that happen? Not a chance.

Common sense is not impartial.

Gets my vote right now.

dgl · 5 Sep 2019

Really the simple solution would have been to have had leave requiring at least 60-70% of the vote, esp. considering the advantages of staying within the EU but I doubt that would be workable on any subsequent referendum, farage certinaly wouldn't agree to it.

dosxuk · 5 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
If there were another referendum today it could go either way and Brexit would either win or only lose by 2 or 3%. That would not solve our problem.

The answer is to have a multiple choice vote under STV (single transferable vote) rules so people can rank the options. There are multiple counting stages, and at each stage one option is knocked out until an option gets more than 50%.

That way we can have a vote with options like:
[ ] Remain
[ ] Leave with no-deal
[ ] Leave but remain in single market / customs union
[ ] Leave with May's deal

There's no risk of splitting the leave vote, and it allows people to say, i'd rather leave with a deal, but if not, then no deal rather than remain.

After that sort of referendum, the government would have a clear mandate, and a clear progression of options that will satisfy the majority of the country. There are other rules you could add (50% of the vote but at least 10% clear of the next highest option to win could be a sensible one), but we need clarity on what the country will accept before we complain that parliament are getting it wrong.

Xenophon PCDGS · 5 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
The sensible course would be for a higher authority to say STOP.

Jesus and the Second Coming, perchance?

Doppelganger · 5 Sep 2019

dgl said:
Really the simple solution would have been to have had leave requiring at least 60-70% of the vote, esp. considering the advantages of staying within the EU but I doubt that would be workable on any subsequent referendum, farage certinaly wouldn't agree to it.

Farage isn't an MP, so who cares what he thinks

dgl · 5 Sep 2019

Doppelganger said:
Farage isn't an MP, so who cares what he thinks

Agreed, but some people still think he runs the country and actually respect his opinion :rolleyes:

, personally I would take the opinion of Mr. Blobby before him!, and not being either A, understandable or B, an actually human would take quite a while.

fowler9 · 5 Sep 2019

dgl said:
Really the simple solution would have been to have had leave requiring at least 60-70% of the vote, esp. considering the advantages of staying within the EU but I doubt that would be workable on any subsequent referendum, farage certinaly wouldn't agree to it.

Why does anyone give two shiny sh*ts what Farage thinks. The only consistent thing about the w*nker is that he changes his mind about what he believes from minute to minute. At least he is consistent in his unreliability unlike Johnson who could feasibly turn up being remain in 6 months time. Christ I've just contradicted myself over who is the most unreliable. Someone go and ask Dominic Cummings who we should trust. Ha ha.

Carlisle · 5 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
There is a very big danger that groups of like minded people fail to understand the strength of the opinions of the other side.

If there were another referendum today it could go either way and Brexit would either win or only lose by 2 or 3%. That would not solve our problem.

If we have an election the loathing for Johnson and Corbyn will cancel out and we'll be hung again.

The sensible course would be for a higher authority to say STOP. Take a long time out. You've had 3 years to get this clear. You haven't. At this rate you'll not have done it by 2002 when the next election is due. Pack it in. Come back after having a full review and we'll have another referendum in 5 years.

Both sides would object but they'd have time to prepare reasoned cases in ways that the public can understand

Will that happen? Not a chance.

Common sense is not impartial.

Maybe a future government and monarch who shared a similar outlook could facilitate such an outcome, obviously dragging the queen at 93 into such a divisive tinderbox is totally unfair and impractical ever if the will were present on all sides

Aictos · 5 Sep 2019

dgl said:
Really the simple solution would have been to have had leave requiring at least 60-70% of the vote, esp. considering the advantages of staying within the EU but I doubt that would be workable on any subsequent referendum, farage certinaly wouldn't agree to it.

If that’s the case then it should apply to Remain as well because requiring one outcome to be 70% of the vote gives a unfair advantage to the other if it only requires 55% of the vote which is quite undemocratic!

That’s just common sense, something that is lacking today.

dgl · 5 Sep 2019

fowler9 said:
Why does anyone give two shiny sh*ts what Farage thinks. The only consistent thing about the w*nker is that he changes his mind about what he believes from minute to minute. At least he is consistent in his unreliability unlike Johnson who could feasibly turn up being remain in 6 months time.

Of course I don't give a damn what the traitor thinks , unfortunately some people do and will want his view put forward. Even if his views have as much place in modern times as racism and sexism (consequently both things he and his merry band of traitors are).

And he is a traitor, anyone that wants to ruin his own country for his own means is a traitor.

Bantamzen · 5 Sep 2019

So the BoJoBot is, as they say in America, doubling down on his stupidity. Does this daft twit even think about what he says, or does he just do a Trump and spit out the first thing that comes between his ears?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49598118

Boris Johnson has said he would "rather be dead in a ditch" than ask the EU to delay Brexit beyond 31 October.

But the PM declined to say if he would resign if a postponement - which he has repeatedly ruled out - had to happen.

Mr Johnson has said he would be prepared to leave the EU without a deal, but Labour says stopping a no-deal Brexit is its priority.

The prime minister's younger brother, Jo Johnson, announced earlier that he was standing down as a minister and MP.

Speaking in West Yorkshire, Boris Johnson said Jo Johnson, who backed Remain in the 2016 referendum, was a "fantastic guy" but they had had "differences" over the EU.

Announcing his resignation earlier in the day, the MP for Orpington, south-east London, said he had been "torn between family loyalty and the national interest".

During his speech at a police training centre in Wakefield, the prime minister reiterated his call for an election, which he wants to take place on 15 October.

He argued it was "the only way to get this thing [Brexit] moving".

"We either go forward with our plan to get a deal, take the country out on 31 October which we can or else somebody else should be allowed to see if they can keep us in beyond 31 October," Mr Johnson said.

He told the audience he hated "banging on about Brexit" but accused MPs of having "torpedoed" the UK's negotiating position with the EU by voting for a Labour-backed bill designed to block a no-deal exit on 31 October.

However, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has accused the PM of having "no plan to get a new deal".

The House of Commons rejected Mr Johnson's plan for a snap election in a vote on Wednesday.

But the government has announced that MPs will get another chance to back this plan next Monday.

The fresh vote on an early election is scheduled just before Parliament is due to be prorogued - or suspended - from next week until 14 October.

Opposition parties are holding talks about how to respond to the prime minister's call for a mid-October election, amid concern over whether it should be delayed until after an extension has been agreed to prevent a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.

Meanwhile, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has warned Mr Johnson that he "cannot win an election, whenever it comes, if the Brexit Party stands against him".

However, if they were to make a pact during a general election "with a clear policy, we'd be unstoppable", he told the BBC.

Labour MP and chair of the Home Affairs Committee Yvette Cooper criticised the PM for using police officers as a backdrop to his speech.

"This is an abuse of power by Boris Johnson, making so many police stop their training and work to be part of his political stunt," she said.

West Yorkshire Police Chief Constable John Robins said he was pleased the force was "chosen as the focal point of the national recruitment campaign" and welcomed Mr Johnson's pledge to increase police funding.

One of the student officers standing behind the prime minister appeared to become unwell during his speech and question-and-answer session.

Twenty minutes in, she sat down with her head bowed, at which point Mr Johnson apologised and said: "That is the signal for me to actively wind up."

Controller1701 · 5 Sep 2019

geoffk said:
c) united Ireland

Worth pointing out that this is not just about how long it takes a lorry to cross the border; it's about identity. The GFA gives folk in NI the right to choose whether to be British or Irish and to carry either passport.

This would be my preferred option

dgl · 5 Sep 2019

Bantamzen said:
So the BoJoBot is, as they say in America, doubling down on his stupidity. Does this daft twit even think about what he says, or does he just do a Trump and spit out the first thing that comes between his ears?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49598118

Well he has either got to resign, get into a ditch, or revoke A50 as that technically would not be an extension but a scrapping altogether.

Killingworth · 5 Sep 2019

Carlisle said:
Maybe a future government and monarch who shared a similar outlook could facilitate such an outcome, but to drag the queen at 93 into such a divisive tinderbox is obviously totally unfair and impractical

Which is why I said "Not a chance" and a Second Coming is even less likely.

But one side has got to convince enough of the other to switch sides with facts. The less that happens the harder it will be to move forward.

At present the Brexiteers have had the lead for over 3 years. If the remain cause now had a clear majority, say 65 % or more, it would be safer to go for another referendum and an election. Ditto if Leave might get that vote.

We aren't in that situation, yet. However, the indications I detect suggest folks are so fed up that without examining the facts a large percentage will vote Leave or for leave backing parties, even without a deal.

Facts are beaten by emotions, soundbites and videos. Voters can be fickle and switch sides for illogical reasons, possibly 2% of the vote can swing on a single video, be it an MP lounging on the front bench or a leader confronted by a girl's blouse! And back again 2 days later.

Which is why the referendum for a massive constitutional change should have had a much clearer qualification for a change. It didn't, we can't rerun it, so we may need a miracle to help us. But most of us will live through it and it will be over. Its not the 100 Years War.

Cowley · 5 Sep 2019

Bantamzen said:
So the BoJoBot is, as they say in America, doubling down on his stupidity. Does this daft twit even think about what he says, or does he just do a Trump and spit out the first thing that comes between his ears?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49598118

I reckon he did think about what he was going to say for years and years. He probably practiced Churchillesque speeches in the bathroom mirror after towelling his blonde mop.
Unfortunately for him he seems to have realised this week that perhaps there’s a bit more to it than he thought.

edwin_m · 5 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
At present the Brexiteers have had the lead for over 3 years.

Point of information: in nearly every opinion poll for the past two years Remain has been ahead of Leave, though not by very much: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

If there was another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, how would you vote?

Journeyman · 5 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
If there were another referendum today it could go either way and Brexit would either win or only lose by 2 or 3%. That would not solve our problem.

This is precisely why I'm opposed to another Scottish independence referendum at the moment. It could go either way, and would leave getting on for half the country very pissed off indeed - while creating a whole heap of complex problems to solve.

Killingworth · 6 Sep 2019

edwin_m said:
Point of information: in nearly every opinion poll for the past two years Remain has been ahead of Leave, though not by very much: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

Brexiteers have held the lead because the only poll that matters was in 2016 and all has flowed from there. It isn't safe to rely on opinion polls with their inbuilt margins of error. Most of them gave Remain a lead before the referendum. Some blame the opinion polls for the result insofar as a significant number thought it safe to vote leave to give the government a kicking never believing leave would win. A close relative admits to that, but would now vote leave to get it over. And leave without a deal. Understanding of what the vote meant in practice, or now, is low.

Democracy is fine in theory but to work properly the electorate needs to understand the question. In this dispute very few do, and those on one side generally suggest those on the other are ignorant. There's the problem. Attempts to warn of the inconvenient practicalities are dismissed as scaremongering.

edwin_m · 6 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
Brexiteers have held the lead because the only poll that matters was in 2016 and all has flowed from there. It isn't safe to rely on opinion polls with their inbuilt margins of error. Most of them gave Remain a lead before the referendum. Some blame the opinion polls for the result insofar as a significant number thought it safe to vote leave to give the government a kicking never believing leave would win. A close relative admits to that, but would now vote leave to get it over. And leave without a deal. Understanding of what the vote meant in practice, or now, is low.

Democracy is fine in theory but to work properly the electorate needs to understand the question. In this dispute very few do, and those on one side generally suggest those on the other are ignorant. There's the problem. Attempts to warn of the inconvenient practicalities are dismissed as scaremongering.

I do agree with some of this, but the opinion polls give a good indication that public opinion has shifted and with that many of them giving similar results it's unlikely they can all be wrong. It's not a reason on its own to cancel Brexit but I'd say it was a reason to ask the people again (along with increased clarity on what leaving actually means) before doing anything irrevocable.

Howardh · 6 Sep 2019

200,000 have recently put their name on the electoral register, I assume mostly under 25's. Some will have "re-registered" as they will be at Uni etc and I don't know whether they count as "newly registered"?

Aictos · 6 Sep 2019

Is it worth voting for a different party as a protest vote even if you don’t fully agree with that party’s policies?

Geezertronic · 6 Sep 2019

dgl said:
And he is a traitor, anyone that wants to ruin his own country for his own means is a traitor.

Unfortunately that line of thinking could apply to anyone whether they are Leave or Remain

AM9 · 6 Sep 2019

Geezertronic said:
Unfortunately that line of thinking could apply to anyone whether they are Leave or Remain

But we know that the UK was doing pretty well in the EU over the previous 20 years so there wouldn't be the "do or die" and "die in a ditch" rhetoric, which might be indicative of the nation's destiny if the PM's intentions are fulfilled. The PM's political career (or even one political party's current constitution) doesn't trump the well-being of the UK unless being an extreme leaver is your religion.

Geezertronic · 6 Sep 2019

AM9 said:
But we know that the UK was doing pretty well in the EU over the previous 20 years so there wouldn't be the "do or die" and "die in a ditch" rhetoric, which might be indicative of the nation's destiny if the PM's intentions are fulfilled. The PM's political career (or even one political party's current constitution) doesn't trump the well-being of the UK unless being an extreme leaver is your religion.

Maybe, but by removing No Deal off the table it removes the threat and if I was an EU negotiator I would be laughing in my Latte as there is no pressure to negotiate an amended deal, whereas if No Deal was a possibility it gives the UK more power to negotiate a better deal for the UK and one that Parliament is likely to pass given the fact that May's deal was rejected 3 times

As it is, the recent events in Parliament have shot any negotiations apart. Instead of removing No Deal, these politicians should instead have the balls to motion that Article 50 is revoked, then if MPs pass the motion and Article 50 is revoked, let us have a General Election.

krus_aragon · 6 Sep 2019

Howardh said:
With an on-line bookie "Boris Johnson to be the shortest serving PM ever (under 119 days)" 7/5. I don't bet and I have no idea whether 7/5 is good or bad or all stations inbetween. Anyone??

Not a very good return. If you bet ₤50 on those odds, you'd stand to win ₤70 (and get your ₤50 stake back).
Compare that with 4/1 odds, where betting ₤50 would give you winnings of ₤200 (and your stake back), or 10/1 where you'd win £500.

The bookmakers think it's a fairly likely outcome, and have set low odds to avoid losing too much money over it.

EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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