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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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bramling

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Martyrdom maybe his chosen route to swing public opinion his way. It would be wise to avoid falling into the trap he may be setting.

The more this goes on, the more the populace will support his position. The vibe I’ve picked up over the last couple of days certainly supports this.

Stuff like Dominic Grieve appearing on tv throwing insults around will no doubt be furthering this. Any Conservative MP who stood on the 2017 manifesto is on rather thin ice IMO, even in a remain constituency.

But, seriously, this last week has really made a mockery of our politics. The serving prime minister threatened with prison?! It’s simply ridiculous.
 
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EM2

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The right wing press were pumping out "fake news" about Europe before "fake news" even existed.
And funnily enough, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson was responsible for a lot of it.
https://www.indy100.com/article/a-j...ndermines-his-authority-on-the-eu--bkoHJPBuVZ
Johnson, sacked by The Times in 1988 for fabricating a quote, made his mark in Brussels not through fair and balanced reporting, but through extreme euro-scepticism. He seized every chance to mock or denigrate the EU, filing stories that were undoubtedly colourful but also grotesquely exaggerated or completely untrue.

The Telegraph loved it. So did the Tory Right. Johnson later confessed: 'Everything I wrote from Brussels, I found was sort of chucking these rocks over the garden wall and I listened to this amazing crash from the greenhouse next door over in England as everything I wrote from Brussels was having this amazing, explosive effect on the Tory party, and it really gave me this I suppose rather weird sense of power.'

Johnson’s reports also had an amazing, explosive effect on the rest of Fleet Street. They were much more fun than the usual dry and rather complex Brussels fare. News editors on other papers, particularly but not exclusively the tabloids, started pressing their own correspondents to match them. By the time I arrived in Brussels editors only wanted stories about faceless Brussels eurocrats imposing absurd rules on Britain, or scheming Europeans ganging up on us, or British prime ministers fighting plucky rearguard actions against a hostile continent.

Much of Fleet Street seemed unable to view the EU through any other prism. It was the only narrative it was interested in. Stories that did not bash Brussels, stories that acknowledged the EU’s many achievements, stories that recognised that Britain had many natural allies in Europe and often won important arguments, almost invariably ended up on the spike.
 

bramling

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Should he break the law, should he not face the appropriate punishment?

The whole situation is ridiculous. I wish there was a law that required MPs to honour the manifestos upon which they stood.

What’s the likelihood Europe (be that the EU as a whole, or one or two member states) decide enough is enough? One wonders if we might wind up with a scenario where they offer May’s deal one last time, perhaps with a small dose of sweetener in there somewhere albeit nothing significant, and say vote for this deal or else **** off on 31st October without a deal.

Apart from the membership fees, I can’t see much benefit to the EU in extension after extension continuing.
 

EM2

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The whole situation is ridiculous. I wish there was a law that required MPs to honour the manifestos upon which they stood.
Well, that would be the entire Conservative contingent, seeing as their manifesto said there would be 'a smooth and orderly exit' from the EU...
One wonders if we might wind up with a scenario where they offer May’s deal one last time, perhaps with a small dose of sweetener in there somewhere albeit nothing significant, and say vote for this deal or else **** off on 31st October without a deal.
They are quite prepared to let us leave with no deal. They don't *want* us to, but will not stop us doing it.
 

bramling

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Well, that would be the entire Conservative contingent, seeing as their manifesto said there would be 'a smooth and orderly exit' from the EU...

They are quite prepared to let us leave with no deal. They don't *want* us to, but will not stop us doing it.

To be fair to the Conservatives, things have not been easy ever since May lost the majority.

The EU’s position on no deal has, of course, not been tested. None of us really *knows* what would happen if push comes to shove.
 

kermit

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One of the remarkable things about the last week, overshadowed by the many other developments and events, was the extent to which Jeremy Corbyn appeared positively statesmanlike, calm and assured at PMQs, in contrast to BJ's flailing. If Corbyn now supports Ken Clarke as interim PM after a vote of no confidence, on the understanding that an election will follow in November, he could wrongfoot his opponents, and garner a level of respect from those beyond his base, that has hitherto eluded him.
 

Howardh

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Whether Boris ends up in Westminster or Wormwood Scrubs, and no matter if "the people are behind him" (er, proof??) and even if the EU extends our extension or not, none of the above solve the EU/UK land border. There is no technical solution, so if we want it to remain open then we have to have a good relationship with the EU, and if we harden it by introducing a minimum of border guards and infrastructure, the provisionals will kick-off and that will be blood on the hands of May/Johnson and even going back to Cameron.

If we'd been grown up right from the start and admitted this issue was the No1 priority and the one that would eventually hold up Brexit. we would have had two options on the ballot, Remain in the EU or leave the EU and remain an EEA member.
 

Howardh

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One of the remarkable things about the last week, overshadowed by the many other developments and events, was the extent to which Jeremy Corbyn appeared positively statesmanlike, calm and assured at PMQs, in contrast to BJ's flailing. If Corbyn now supports Ken Clarke as interim PM after a vote of no confidence, on the understanding that an election will follow in November, he could wrongfoot his opponents, and garner a level of respect from those beyond his base, that has hitherto eluded him.
Does he? If so fantastic. That would mean Clarke going to the Queen and leading a government of national unity until that election, which would probably be early November.
 

bramling

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Whether Boris ends up in Westminster or Wormwood Scrubs, and no matter if "the people are behind him" (er, proof??) and even if the EU extends our extension or not, none of the above solve the EU/UK land border. There is no technical solution, so if we want it to remain open then we have to have a good relationship with the EU, and if we harden it by introducing a minimum of border guards and infrastructure, the provisionals will kick-off and that will be blood on the hands of May/Johnson and even going back to Cameron.

If we'd been grown up right from the start and admitted this issue was the No1 priority and the one that would eventually hold up Brexit. we would have had two options on the ballot, Remain in the EU or leave the EU and remain an EEA member.

I really dislike the notion that the policy should be dictated by

1) An area whose population makes up only a very small proportion of the UK's population

and

2) The threat of violence.

There doesn't seem to be appetite for ROI having a special status within the EU, and neither does there seem to be appetite for NI having a special status within the UK. With this being the case, quite simply a hard border becomes the default position.
 

bramling

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Does he? If so fantastic. That would mean Clarke going to the Queen and leading a government of national unity until that election, which would probably be early November.

Would "national unity" in practice mean a government full of remainers, as was mooted last time this came up (notwithstanding Lucas's dream government which took this one step further and envisaged it being full of not just remainers but women!)?

None of this will wash its face in the eyes of the electorate.
 

Bletchleyite

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Would "national unity" in practice mean a government full of remainers, as was mooted last time this came up (notwithstanding Lucas's dream government which took this one step further and envisaged it being full of not just remainers but women!)?

None of this will wash its face in the eyes of the electorate.

Realistically it needs to be a Government to deliver a second referendum, but one in which the approach to Brexit is selected, because we know now what the options are and what Brexit would look like. The politicians can't do it, so ask us to do so.

Sensible options:
* WTO rules (note this would require a hard Irish border)
* EEA/EFTA style deal (if selected and EU won't offer, just pick the next one)
* May's deal including the backstop
* Remain

Use STV or AV so there are no wasted votes.

This to me is the only sensible way out.
 

EM2

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Amber Rudd has now quit the Cabinet and surrendered the Conservative whip.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49623737
Amber Rudd has quit the cabinet and Conservative Party saying she cannot "stand by" while "loyal moderate Conservatives are expelled".

The work and pensions secretary said she no longer believed leaving the EU with a deal was the government's "main objective".

She described the sacking of 21 Tory MPs on Tuesday as an "assault on decency and democracy".

The MP for Hastings and Rye supported Remain in the 2016 referendum.

Ms Rudd said her resignation had been "a difficult decision".

In her resignation letter to PM Boris Johnson she said: "I joined your cabinet in good faith: accepting that 'No Deal' had to be on the table, because it was the means by which we would have the best chance of achieving a new deal to leave on 31 October.

"However I no longer believe leaving with a deal is the government's main objective."
 

Ianno87

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I really dislike the notion that the policy should be dictated by

1) An area whose population makes up only a very small proportion of the UK's population

and

2) The threat of violence.

1) So what? We are all one country, it's, frankly, callous and vile to be prepared risk a very hard won peace for NI, for a (fantasy, made up) benefit of the minority of people in the rest of the UK who still (unbelievably) think Brexit is a good idea.

2) Violence is the consequence of de-stabilisation of Northern Ireland, not a threat against Brexit. Quite an obvious difference.
 

Howardh

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I really dislike the notion that the policy should be dictated by
1) An area whose population makes up only a very small proportion of the UK's population
and
2) The threat of violence.
There doesn't seem to be appetite for ROI having a special status within the EU, and neither does there seem to be appetite for NI having a special status within the UK. With this being the case, quite simply a hard border becomes the default position.
Unfortunately we can dislike it as much as we want, but it's real and won't go away. Instead of disliking it we need a solution. I'm quite sure Brexiters will have an answer to it.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Amber Rudd has now quit the Cabinet and surrendered the Conservative whip.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49623737
Well done her although with one of the lowest majorities she probably was on an out if there was GE so going as independent not a bad shout. She has also been very supportive for improving rail links in the Hastings area esp Bi-Modes via HS1.
Lets see how many more of the moderates aka Nicky Morgan et al now all also show there principles and resign as wel
 

dcsprior

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One key situation to watch for is after the (inevitable) general election, if the Conservatives don't manage to achieve a majority, even with DUP and/or Brexit Party support. Anyone that comes to the SNP asking for a coalition will probably find that conset for an independence referendum will be one of the conditions for support.

As an SNP voter, I'd be disappointed if they sold themselves as cheaply as consent for an independence referendum. I'd want the ability to determine Scotland's membership of the UK to be permanently devolved (or more accurately to cease to be reserved)
 

433N

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How many read newspapers? How many read any serious articles online? How many really understand and question what they read? How many watch serious TV news and background content?

How many form their opinions in the golf club, pub, outside the school gate, gym, or at work with like minded mates? Mini mobs who will act together.

We're in a mess. Two opposing positions. Pack it in and remain. Brazen it out and leave. We can all see chaos ahead.

How do you distinguish between a 'serious' and, presumably, non-serious article or TV news or newspaper ? It is subjective and the idea is out-dated.

Largely, people haven't come to grips with the age we live in. It is an age of information and we are still under the belief that people will assess all of the information available , the 'facts' , and come to a rational decision based upon them. This does not happen ; it is impossible because of the weight of information. We cannot know what a 'fact' is or try to assimilate or process the wealth of information that is available to us. I find it hilarious that we still try to cling to the ideas of 'fact' or 'truth' ; almost like they are subject to some form of logical empiricism. If you ask two witnesses to describe the same event, you will rarely get two accounts which agree. If we conflate that to millions of people ... well, you can see the problem.

We pick from the information available those things that support our view and neglect those which don't. It polarises us into extreme positions. Welcome to the future.

We need to move into a post-truth world and be more critical and analytical of the information that we receive. The idea of 'fake news' has run its course and doesn't even provide a fig leaf or credibility to support an argument. Both sides can claim a fact is 'fake news'. The question isn't whether something is 'true' or a 'fact', it is whether it is plausible that it is 'true' or a 'fact'.

In the age of information, I think we need to go back to being a little more human and become more in touch with our primal instincts in forming opinions and making decisions.
 

AlterEgo

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This story has appeared in several media this week: https://inews.co.uk/news/media/euro...e-decades-long-boycott-of-the-sun-study-says/

Suggests that people switched to other papers and this correlated with Liverpool voting more towards Remain than it would otherwise have. It think the relentless anti-EU drumbeat of certain papers over a long period has had a big effect, dating from before social media.

Several respectable accounts on Twitter have debunked the study as little better than junk science.
 

bnm

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The whole situation is ridiculous. I wish there was a law that required MPs to honour the manifestos upon which they stood.

Me too. Boris would now be in court for failing to honour the 2017 Conservative manifesto.
 

dosxuk

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Well, if there is No Deal as an option, then we will have to put up with whatever they give us, there will be no point arguing, we will just 'agree' to what they demand, bear in mind also that the people of Main Land Europe are also affected, and could suffer job losses and price rises, the buying a house scenario, it is like saying 'agreeing' a sale and saying I want 500,000 or there is no deal, after an offer of 250,000, if you have taken the no deal part away, bang goes your 500, you will be stuck with 250 !

A better analogy would be buying your council house. You want to pay 250,000 but the council want 500,000. Telling them you'll only pay 250,000 or you'll move out is absolutely no threat to them.
 

superkev

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I'm surprised the EU havent offered us a better deal to stay in. Slightly less payment as we have a declining GDP perhaps and possibly a tightening of who comes in.
This may trigger a second referendum and should have happened right at the start when Junker sent weak Cameron packing. Pity Maggie wasnt around at the time.
K
 

Bantamzen

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I'm surprised the EU havent offered us a better deal to stay in. Slightly less payment as we have a declining GDP perhaps and possibly a tightening of who comes in.
This may trigger a second referendum and should have happened right at the start when Junker sent weak Cameron packing. Pity Maggie wasnt around at the time.
K

Are you? Because I'm not. Its been obvious for a while that the EU have not been willing to move further with the current set of red lines May defined in place. The BoJoBot may be impressing his dwindling group of supporters with his huffing, puffing, and chest beating bravado, but the EU has to look after it's own members before that of the one country wanting to leave but still hold the cards. The hard core Brexiteers have been kidding themselves for months that the EU will blink first, and instead it is they that are now desperately trying to look like they are still winning.
 

edwin_m

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In the age of information, I think we need to go back to being a little more human and become more in touch with our primal instincts in forming opinions and making decisions.
Isn't that exactly the problem? People making up their minds on instinct and selecting the facts that support that view? The human brain evolved for hunter-gathering and needs quite a bit of help to cope with modern civilization.
 

dosxuk

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I'm surprised the EU havent offered us a better deal to stay in.

Why would they do this though? And who would they propose such an offer too?

If there's one good thing Brexit has done from the EUs perspective, it's killing off the other groups wanting to quit, and the existing benefits seem much greater without them having to do anything. For all the (increasingly hysterical) claims to the contrary, the EU has become stronger and more united as a result of Brexit.
 
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