You offer a better deal to someone who says that they're thinking of leaving, not after they've already decided to go.
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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
In any case we have an excellent deal to stay in, with influence far beyond our remit, a heavily discounted contribution and a veto on just about everything.
Bantamzen
Established Member
Things are getting more ridiculous by the day. The BoJoBot is threatening to veto any extension offered by the EU, whilst also threatening not to ask for one despite him being required to by law if no deal is reached by October 19th. Worse still he is now threatening to not send a new commissioner if we stay beyond October in an effort to shut the EU down. Quite literally he is throwing the toys out of the pram, smashing up the family china, and trying to set fire to the neighbour's house to get what he wants.
Someone has to stop this bloody idiot before he really does some damage!
Someone has to stop this bloody idiot before he really does some damage!
krus_aragon
Established Member
If it becomes clear (after Parliament resumes on the 14th of next month) that the Prime Minister doesn't intend to carry out the will of Parliament (as laid out in the act passed), then I suspect that would be the time for the opposition to table and support a motion of no confidence in the Government.
With time running very short (by then), the minds of various opposition parties may be focused enough to agree to support an alternative Prime Minister and Government in order to get someone who will go and request the extension.
Bantamzen
Established Member
I'm not so concerned about the checks and measures, as the fact that despite becoming so despotic so quickly, people are still rallying around the BoJoBot like he is some kind of savour of democracy, when it is totally obvious that he and his old school network chums don't give one jot. Its a similar way to which the odious sub-human Farage does, lots of shouting and sabre rattling about sovereignty and democracy, but actually just trying to rework the system to feather their own nests further.
nlogax
Established Member
Latest indications coming from the likes of Macron and Verhofstadt indicate that an extension will only get approved with confirmation of a general election, approval of the existing May deal, a new referendum or revocation of A50. Simply asking for an extension probably won’t cut the mustard. What looked like a Lab / Lib / SNP / Plaid masterstroke last week may completely backfire.
But then again, who knows for certain? The last few months have seen more plot twists than during all eight seasons of Game of Thrones combined.
But then again, who knows for certain? The last few months have seen more plot twists than during all eight seasons of Game of Thrones combined.
David Cameron should be frogmarched back into 10 Downing St and told to sort out the mess that HE created with his bloody referendum.
Bantamzen
Established Member
So the question would be, if none of the caveats are met, where does this leave the government who will legally be committed to not seeing through a no deal scenario?
nlogax
Established Member
Try Jon Worth’s Brexit flow diagrams. Studied at a superficial level you’d be forgiven for thinking it resembles coming out of an HS2 project plan, but stick with it.
https://jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/
Latest version is from today. However, doesn’t take into account the recent statement from Verhofstadt which potentially muddies the waters even further.
nlogax
Established Member
You’ll have to knock on the door of his shed quite loudly to get his attention - he’s probably in there, The Smiths playing at full volume.
bramling
Veteran Member
Surely that wouldn’t pose an immediate problem. Boris requests the A50 extension and it is declined by Europe. We then leave by default with no deal on 31st October, albeit with total chaos due to the government being dysfunctional as a result of two months of turmoil and a busted majority. If I’m understanding things correctly that’s all quite feasible as things stand at present.
Of course Britain could revoke A50 entirely, but would anyone do that?
bramling
Veteran Member
Could that be because, like it or not, Johnson is reflecting quite a heavy body of public opinion?
nlogax
Established Member
This is pretty much the situation. Johnson is likely to succeed in a general election. In spite of all the harm that a no-deal scenario will bring to the country, that’s far less important to his supporting base than the ‘mere’ act of exiting the EU. His supporters aren’t exactly detail oriented, very much like the man himself.
Grimsby town
Member
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I think around 30-40% of the uk population are willing to accept no deal so yes a significant chunk of the population agrees with what Johnson is doing. However, this is not a majority, the combined vote share for remain supporting (assuming Labour are considered remain supporting) is around 55% - 60% currently. Its ok saying we have to listen to leavers because they will feel disenfranchised but what about the clear majority who do not want no deal Brexit. Do we just ignore those like Johnson is doing to try and win an election?
I think the only way out is another referendum where each option is specified in detail. This would have to be accompanied by factual information. It must also state a predicted time frame for how long each option will drag on for. I believe there is a huge amount of Brexit fatigue and that is contributing to the appeal of no deal. I really think there is a belief that we leave on the 31st without a deal and brexit becomes a thing of the past and the domestic agenda becomes priority once more. Obviously this won't be the case as the whole of government will be caught up dealing with any consequences and negotiating a relationship with the EU, Japan, USA, Canda etc. new relationships. Expert negotiators such as Ivan Rodgers think this will take decades. Mays deal would also need similar negotiation although, they should begin on better terms and with more background work laid but are still likely to take 5-10 years to sort out. Is this really what people want?
There is a large and growing number of people who will never trying to keep us in tje EU and if we leave fight to get us back in as soon as possible.
These people may want it over but this is the beginning of years of a fight if we leave the EU.
Leaves fought for years to get us into this mess. Why on earth do you think we this who want to be in the EU are going to go quietly.
Thankfully your not in charge. Your compassion for others is astounding.
Source. Or is this pulled out of thin air.
bramling
Veteran Member
I don’t see what’s discompassionate about advocating NI/ROI to have border arrangements like many other countries around the world happily have, in the absence of being able to come up with a solution that someone or other doesn’t object to - which is pretty typical of NI politics. Likewise the notion “if we don’t get our own way then violence will happen” never being far away.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
From the extreme end of the pro-Brexit faction too.
bramling
Veteran Member
It amuses me that it’s all the fault of leavers, but never the several decades of membership leading up to it. Until 2016 I was never given a choice one way or other, had I been given that opportunity I would probably never have voted to join in the first place, and certainly would have wanted out rather sooner against a backdrop of tag lines like “ever closer union”.
Nonetheless I don’t think hurling blame around helps to further the current situation.
The big problem we have at the moment is any time anyone talks about the effects of leaving and how badly the country will be affected it is all dismissed as project fear of the "nasty EU" getting it's own back despite what has already happend in the automotive industry and the fact that no the EU are not trying to make our lives difficult they are just working within the rules of the EU.
The massive problem is that a lot of people are not that active politically and so when there is a problem they are looking for someone to blame, now when a person comes along, pretends to be just like them and then tells them who they claim the "problem" is caused by it doesn't matter how factually inaccurate it is as they aren't going to check, they've got their "answer" and that's good enough.
The massive problem is that a lot of people are not that active politically and so when there is a problem they are looking for someone to blame, now when a person comes along, pretends to be just like them and then tells them who they claim the "problem" is caused by it doesn't matter how factually inaccurate it is as they aren't going to check, they've got their "answer" and that's good enough.
Grimsby town
Member
- Joined
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My source is opinion polls. A quick google will back those numbers up.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
One thing I don't get is why he isn't being utterly disgraced and shunned. I bet he's making a packet from after dinner speeches, whereas he needs to be treated as a heretic.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Therein lies the problem of NI, and while I'd see Scotland's departure from the Union tearfully (and I believe that's now certain within 5-10 years), NI voting to rejoin the Republic would in my view be a potential silver lining in the cloud. Someone else's problem then.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
BBC News is reporting the latter.
Thank you!
It's not what I want, for one.
nlogax
Established Member
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1170680111189901314
[French Tricolour emoji] Foreign Minister Le Drian is right: yet another extension for Brexit is unacceptable, unless the deadlock in London is broken. Let it be a 2nd ref., new elections, a revocation of art. 50 or the approval of the deal, but not today’s helpless status quo
For anyone who wants some insight into the feelings of some of the people in NI there was an interesting feature on Good Morning Scotland earlier on today. I have to admit that I haven't really understood the issues facing NI so far, but I can see why they don't relish the prospect of any kind of border controls.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00087v6
The report is towards the end of the programme, from 1h34m onwards.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00087v6
The report is towards the end of the programme, from 1h34m onwards.
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