EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

superkev · 30 Sep 2019

I cant understand why a 4th option hasn't been offered I.e. staying in on better terms.
The eu could offer a reduction in contributions on the basis we have recently slipped down the gdp list below France.
I'm sure with a slightly lower contribution and perhaps some control as to who we allow in the vote would be to remain.
K

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furnessvale · 30 Sep 2019

superkev said:
I cant understand why a 4th option hasn't been offered I.e. staying in on better terms.
The eu could offer a reduction in contributions on the basis we have recently slipped down the gdp list below France.
I'm sure with a slightly lower contribution and perhaps some control as to who we allow in the vote would be to remain.
K

I thought Cameron went to Brussels asking for things like that?

IIRC he had his little legs slapped and was told to go home and get his country to comply or else.

The rest is history.

Bletchleyite · 30 Sep 2019

We have excellent terms at present, better than most other members. The EU was completely right to refuse to improve them further as that would be to the disadvantage of other members.

TBH, I'm starting to think, despite being a Remainer, we will simply have to leave on WTO terms. We are so discredited with the EU now due to the way we have treated people who are meant to be our partners that our relationship will never be the same again even if we do remain or sign a deal in the end.

Senex · 30 Sep 2019

Bletchleyite said:
We have excellent terms at present, better than most other members. The EU was completely right to refuse to improve them further as that would be to the disadvantage of other members.

TBH, I'm starting to think, despite being a Remainer, we will simply have to leave on WTO terms. We are so discredited with the EU now due to the way we have treated people who are meant to be our partners that our relationship will never be the same again even if we do remain or sign a deal in the end.

That's something that has worried me for some considerable time too, even though I should like nothing more than get a remain vote somehow and stay put. We have behaved so badly and made such a hash of things in our relations with the EU over the last three years that it seems very hard to envisage any way in which we could just switch back to being friends and neighbours. We have a huge job to do to build up trust and credibility—and just to be taken seriously. We have thrown away so much good will. How would other EU members manage just to settle back into an easy and trusting relationship with the British?

Mag_seven · 30 Sep 2019

Bletchleyite said:
TBH, I'm starting to think, despite being a Remainer, we will simply have to leave on WTO terms.

I'm beginning to think that as well but the only problem with that is we will all suffer not just those who want it to happen - in a just world hard core leavers should be first in the queue to lose any jobs that come as a result of a no-deal Brexit but we all know it doesn't work like that.

nlogax · 30 Sep 2019

furnessvale said:
I thought Cameron went to Brussels asking for things like that?

IIRC he had his little legs slapped and was told to go home and get his country to comply or else.

And rightly so. Why would the EU give us even better terms of membership than the extremely generous ones we already have? There's a bizarre sense of entitlement that Leave supporters seem to possess. We're about to see that be dismantled by leaving without a deal.

edwin_m · 30 Sep 2019

It's a risk, but I don't think that's a reason not to try to achieve the best outcome (which is to have a further and more democratic referendum which reverses the result of the previous one). It probably does mean that sensible suggestions for reform of the EU are less likely to be listened to if they come from the UK, even if they are things that might benefit many or all members not just special pleading on our behalf. For example I think the idea of an inner circle that gets on with ever-closer union while the rest can sit on the margin and just participate in the economic side would appeal to countries in both groups.

Doesn't our contribution get adjusted automatically according to GDP without having to negotiate it?

najaB · 30 Sep 2019

Bletchleyite said:
TBH, I'm starting to think, despite being a Remainer, we will simply have to leave on WTO terms. We are so discredited with the EU now due to the way we have treated people who are meant to be our partners that our relationship will never be the same again even if we do remain or sign a deal in the end.

I think that the EU leaders are clever enough to realise that the problem isn't "us" (the majority of the UK population and even politicians), it is the result of our politics being hijacked by a small, rabid minority of right-wing nutjobs. After all, they're having to deal with similar in their own countries.

Bletchleyite · 30 Sep 2019

najaB said:
I think that the EU leaders are clever enough to realise that the problem isn't "us" (the majority of the UK population and even politicians), it is the result of our politics being hijacked by a small, rabid minority of right-wing nutjobs. After all, they're having to deal with similar in their own countries.

I think that's why they have had so much patience, but even that will run out at some point and I don't think we are far off that point.

edwin_m · 30 Sep 2019

najaB said:
I think that the EU leaders are clever enough to realise that the problem isn't "us" (the majority of the UK population and even politicians), it is the result of our politics being hijacked by a small, rabid minority of right-wing nutjobs. After all, they're having to deal with similar in their own countries.

However, even if the referendum result is questionable for several reasons, the fact that such a large number voted to leave will be a reason for them to be concerned about Britain's future attitude either as a member or as a third country.

najaB · 30 Sep 2019

Bletchleyite said:
I think that's why they have had so much patience, but even that will run out at some point and I don't think we are far off that point.

Which is why I expect any extension to be predicated on a significant change - e.g. commitment to a second referendum, change of government, etc.

najaB · 30 Sep 2019

edwin_m said:
However, even if the referendum result is questionable for several reasons, the fact that such a large number voted to leave will be a reason for them to be concerned about Britain's future attitude either as a member or as a third country.

I don't think that 38% is that high a percentage as compared to euroskeptics in other member states.

Killingworth · 30 Sep 2019

najaB said:
I don't think that 38% is that high a percentage as compared to euroskeptics in other member states.

And it was only about 28% of the population in the country at that time. Some will have died, others have come onto the register. We have little idea how those who didn't vote in 2016 would vote now, or if they'd vote at all. For all who've swung to remain the bully boy, let's get on with it, faction look likely to have swung as many their leaving way.

Common sense says take time out. If we'd launched D-Day any earlier, as some wanted, we'd have lost, and badly. But caution and common sense has been cast to the winds. It's now charge on, the Light Brigade sentiment. Apparently we have to do something or die in a ditch. Balaclava here we come.

edwin_m · 30 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
And it was only about 28% of the population in the country at that time. Some will have died, others have come onto the register. We have little idea how those who didn't vote in 2016 would vote now, or if they'd vote at all. For all who've swung to remain the bully boy, let's get on with it, faction look likely to have swung as many their leaving way.

Common sense says take time out. If we'd launched D-Day any earlier, as some wanted, we'd have lost, and badly. But caution and common sense has been cast to the winds. It's now charge on, the Light Brigade sentiment. Apparently we have to do something or die in a ditch. Balaclava here we come.

We do have opinion polls showing a small majority for Remain. It's possible to dismiss an individual poll but this has been pretty consistent for two years and more detailed surveys show the 2016 don't knows more likely to vote remain if there was another referendum. Currently 53% to 47% averaging the last six excluding don't knows. Importantly the question is still just remain versus leave as with 2016, so if a more specific leave option was defined then some who don't like that option would transfer to the remain side or become don't knows. I know I keep banging on about this point but it seems critical to me in that it undermines the "will of the people" and "we must get it done" tropes.

AM9 · 30 Sep 2019

Mag_seven said:
I'm beginning to think that as well but the only problem with that is we will all suffer not just those who want it to happen - in a just world hard core leavers should be first in the queue to lose any jobs that come as a result of a no-deal Brexit but we all know it doesn't work like that.

Other than the speculators that are driving the leave movement, aren't there geographical issues that will create more hardship in some areas of the country than others? For example, much of the inward industrial investment over the last couple of decades has established manufacturing in areas left to rot by the ravages of Thatcher's policies. We have already seen a rapid decline of industries with thinly veiled threats about how unsustainable many of those left might be once the UK is even partially detached from the EU market.
Then there are logsitic issues caused by the predicted chaos at the ports, most of which are in the south or south-east. When fresh food is taken right up to its sell-by date because of border delays, the little time left may make it impractical to distribute it much further. So the south-east may get a disproportional amount of what fresh food is successfully landed. Added to that the fact that prices are higher (and could be even higher) in the less cash-strapped south-east, partly because less jobs would be at risk there.

DerekC · 30 Sep 2019

Senex said:
That's something that has worried me for some considerable time too, even though I should like nothing more than get a remain vote somehow and stay put. We have behaved so badly and made such a hash of things in our relations with the EU over the last three years that it seems very hard to envisage any way in which we could just switch back to being friends and neighbours. We have a huge job to do to build up trust and credibility—and just to be taken seriously. We have thrown away so much good will. How would other EU members manage just to settle back into an easy and trusting relationship with the British?

najaB said:
I think that the EU leaders are clever enough to realise that the problem isn't "us" (the majority of the UK population and even politicians), it is the result of our politics being hijacked by a small, rabid minority of right-wing nutjobs. After all, they're having to deal with similar in their own countries.

I agree with @najaB on this - European nations have their own bands of nutjobs and understand the problem. In fact a lesson that letting the nutjobs take over ends in tears and coming back to Brussels with your tail between your legs wouldn't be bad. Of course that would work as well or better if we leave with no deal and the UK economy crashes and burns … so maybe the EU is now OK with either!

Tetchytyke · 30 Sep 2019

najaB said:
I don't think that 38% is that high a percentage as compared to euroskeptics in other member states.

There's a lot of Euroscepticism in Eastern Europe which, given that the EU bankrolls those countries, seems a wee bit ungrateful.

Ironic, really, given that our Euroscepticism has largely exploded due to Eastern Europeans having access to our jobs market.

Killingworth · 30 Sep 2019

AM9 said:
Other than the speculators that are driving the leave movement, aren't there geographical issues that will create more hardship in some areas of the country than others? For example, much of the inward industrial investment over the last couple of decades has established manufacturing in areas left to rot by the ravages of Thatcher's policies. We have already seen a rapid decline of industries with thinly veiled threats about how unsustainable many of those left might be once the UK is even partially detached from the EU market.
Then there are logsitic issues caused by the predicted chaos at the ports, most of which are in the south or south-east. When fresh food is taken right up to its sell-by date because of border delays, the little time left may make it impractical to distribute it much further. So the south-east may get a disproportional amount of what fresh food is successfully landed. Added to that the fact that prices are higher (and could be even higher) in the less cash-strapped south-east, partly because less jobs would be at risk there.

Be careful. Although much perishable cargo comes through Dover we can live without most of it, certainly for a few months. Dover isn't even in the top 8 ports for volume of freight processed. What will happen is that loads will be redistributed between available ports and those best prepared will gain. HGV traffic may reduce as more container cargoes cross for transfer onto trucks nearer destination. Some perishables may make viable air cargoes

Felixstowe, London and the Humber ports are all champing at the bit to put their plans into action. Around Immingham, Grimsby and Hull there's masses of capacity and land for expansion. Freight only ro-ro ferries line up at these ports as well as container and bulk cargo vessels but you won't see them unless you know where to go. You might get a clue if you see the number of trucks heading along the M180, and the long freight trains trundling across North Lincolnshire.

Carlisle · 30 Sep 2019

Arctic Troll said:
There's a lot of Euroscepticism in Eastern Europe which, given that the EU bankrolls those countries, seems a wee bit ungrateful.

Ironic, really, given that our Euroscepticism has largely exploded due to Eastern Europeans having access to our jobs market.

True, the Polish born MP Robert Kawczynski in interviews seems very keen to tell his fellow countryman they can’t come to work over here after Brexit unless they’ve specific skills, (I’m alright jack )

najaB · 30 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
What will happen is that loads will be redistributed between available ports and those best prepared will gain.

What makes you think that those ports would be any better prepared customs and immigration wise?

Killingworth · 30 Sep 2019

najaB said:
What makes you think that those ports would be any better prepared customs and immigration wise?

Maybe bravado, but they say they are and they have masses of flat land nearby to park trucks if they need to. Mind you, if it keeps raining like it is at present it won't be paperwork they get bogged down in!

najaB · 30 Sep 2019

Killingworth said:
Maybe bravado, but they say they are and they have masses of flat land nearby to park trucks if they need to. Mind you, if it keeps raining like it is at present it won't be paperwork they get bogged down in!

They can have all the flat land in the world, there are only so many customs officials to go around. And you only boast about having truck parking space if you expect that they won't be going anywhere for a while!

Spamcan81 · 30 Sep 2019

Carlisle said:
True, the Polish born MP Robert Kawczynski in interviews seems very keen to tell his fellow countryman they can’t come to work over here after Brexit unless they’ve specific skills, (I’m alright jack )

I've been quite surprised at the number of UK MPs from an immigrant background who want to pull up the drawbridge on other immigrants.

Wombat · 30 Sep 2019

I genuinely experienced a living cliché this afternoon. I was in a pub waiting to give my wife a lift home from work, and overhead the classic "Three men in a pub" agreeing that the benefits and drawbacks of leaving the EU were irrelevant; the important thing was leaving at any cost. Even as I type I'm painfully aware that this sounds like a fictional anecdote - my mind boggled somewhat as I listened - but it jives with what I've been hearing and reading elsewhere. My mother's cleaning lady, as a random example (who is kind and generally lovely in all respects) is adamant that we must leave - she doesn't know why, but she is adamant nonetheless. Everybody wants to "win" at all costs, regardless of how pyrrhic that victory might be, and Johnson is effectively a high priest reciting dogma to the faithful.

The point is, I think the post-fact age is being superceded by the post-reason age. It doesn't matter whether or not Brexit is a good idea, it doesn't matter whether or not Trump is fit to hold office; all that matters is that the other side must be ground beneath our heel and we must win. I don't know where we go from here. I'm inclined to agree that we may just have to crash out and eat a few years of WTO Brexit, and hope that eventually most of us reach a sensible conclusion about what to do next.

fowler9 · 30 Sep 2019

WombatDeath said:
I genuinely experienced a living cliché this afternoon. I was in a pub waiting to give my wife a lift home from work, and overhead the classic "Three men in a pub" agreeing that the benefits and drawbacks of leaving the EU were irrelevant; the important thing was leaving at any cost. Even as I type I'm painfully aware that this sounds like a fictional anecdote - my mind boggled somewhat as I listened - but it jives with what I've been hearing and reading elsewhere. My mother's cleaning lady, as a random example (who is kind and generally lovely in all respects) is adamant that we must leave - she doesn't know why, but she is adamant nonetheless. Everybody wants to "win" at all costs, regardless of how pyrrhic that victory might be, and Johnson is effectively a high priest reciting dogma to the faithful.

The point is, I think the post-fact age is being superceded by the post-reason age. It doesn't matter whether or not Brexit is a good idea, it doesn't matter whether or not Trump is fit to hold office; all that matters is that the other side must be ground beneath our heel and we must win. I don't know where we go from here. I'm inclined to agree that we may just have to crash out and eat a few years of WTO Brexit, and hope that eventually most of us reach a sensible conclusion about what to do next.

I am almost past caring. Yeah let's leave with no deal. I have a job with the armed forces that will pretty much continue guaranteed. I live in the family house which is paid for. I'll just sit hear and watch people enjoy having "Sovereignty" and "Taking back control". I'll watch everyone else play a zero sum game.

Killingworth · 1 Oct 2019

najaB said:
They can have all the flat land in the world, there are only so many customs officials to go around. And you only boast about having truck parking space if you expect that they won't be going anywhere for a while!

But they won't be blocking access to the passenger ferries at Immingham because there aren't any! Stacked trucks lining the A2/M2 and M20/A20 are more likely than on the M180 and nearby roads. Kent has less land readily available for truck stacking.

However, I think this may be where the fear element has been overplayed. We're bound to have some transitional difficulties, but plans are being confirmed and we will get through whatever transpires. We got through WW1 and WW2. We managed with petrol rationing in 1956. We coped with the 3 day week and the miners strike

I'm still in favour of remaining, but every day that passes means that's less likely. We have to make the most of whatever deal we get. My children and grand-children can see that and are having to adapt. It seems we'll probably not get another referendum and an election will only stir things up more. We're getting to damage limitation territory. Europe must be happy to finally get rid of us; to let us stew in our own juice.

So, where's the knight on a white charger to rescue us from all this? To slay the Brexit dragons once and for all and convince us to turn about and return to the EU fold? To live constructively and happily ever after?

It's not a fairy tale.This is real life. Bad endings do happen. I only wish there were such a knight.

.

muz379 · 1 Oct 2019

Senex said:
That's something that has worried me for some considerable time too, even though I should like nothing more than get a remain vote somehow and stay put. We have behaved so badly and made such a hash of things in our relations with the EU over the last three years that it seems very hard to envisage any way in which we could just switch back to being friends and neighbours. We have a huge job to do to build up trust and credibility—and just to be taken seriously. We have thrown away so much good will. How would other EU members manage just to settle back into an easy and trusting relationship with the British?

I happen to agree with a lot of this , indeed we have had politicians involved on our side of the negotiations who have all along been leading the "stick two fingers up to the EU " & "they will be begging us for a deal" rhetoric . Meanwhile the EU has had some extremely talented individuals like Sabine Weyand working on the negotiations on their side . It was only going to end one way lets be honest, the EU just by sheer nature of its size would always be able to outdo us in negotiations and this should have been reasonably foreseeable to everyone . The thing that worries me the most about all of this though is that whilst we have been embarrassing ourselves at the EU , every other country around the world we are going to start needed free trade agreements with soon has also been watching and rubbing their hands together . This past 3 years has really done our nations reputation no good .

Bantamzen · 1 Oct 2019

Killingworth said:
But they won't be blocking access to the passenger ferries at Immingham because there aren't any! Stacked trucks lining the A2/M2 and M20/A20 are more likely than on the M180 and nearby roads. Kent has less land readily available for truck stacking.

However, I think this may be where the fear element has been overplayed. We're bound to have some transitional difficulties, but plans are being confirmed and we will get through whatever transpires. We got through WW1 and WW2. We managed with petrol rationing in 1956. We coped with the 3 day week and the miners strike

I'm still in favour of remaining, but every day that passes means that's less likely. We have to make the most of whatever deal we get. My children and grand-children can see that and are having to adapt. It seems we'll probably not get another referendum and an election will only stir things up more. We're getting to damage limitation territory. Europe must be happy to finally get rid of us; to let us stew in our own juice.

So, where's the knight on a white charger to rescue us from all this? To slay the Brexit dragons once and for all and convince us to turn about and return to the EU fold? To live constructively and happily ever after?

It's not a fairy tale.This is real life. Bad endings do happen. I only wish there were such a knight.

.

Unfortunately "we'll get through" has become something of a repeated phrase amongst Brexiteers, so I'm not sure those of us preferring a less toxic exit from the EU should be advocating it. After all it was a culmination of those events you listed that ultimately weakened us as a country, gave us the rather unwanted title of "Poor Man of Europe" & provided at least some of the rational for the government of our time to seek closer economic ties with Europe. In this scenario I rather suspect that "coping" will within a decade translate back into "wanting back in".

I feel even on here, let alone out in the country as a whole, there is an increasing tiredness of Brexit & a growing desire just to see the end of it. The trouble is that a chaotic no deal ending isn't an ending at all, just the beginning of probably decades of difficult times. All the trade deals we need to do will take that long, and will doubtless leave some uncomfortable compromises to be made along the way. If however we can in some way salvage a deal with the EU to leave on amicable, and more importantly as near as possible terms as we have now, then maybe we can get by without too much impact.

You are right, it is no fairy tail, and there most certainly is no easy pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Any gains we might get from leaving amicably will be difficult and time consuming. But no deal really should never have been allowed to get this far into the process, and frankly really isn't an option even though bizarrely it is. And I really don't think Brexit fatigue should allow us as a country just to give up, let it happen & "just cope". For all the predictions of civil unhappiness and unrest should the A50 legislation be repealed, it pales into insignificance compared to what we might see once the effects of no deal kick in.

fowler9 · 1 Oct 2019

Killingworth said:
But they won't be blocking access to the passenger ferries at Immingham because there aren't any! Stacked trucks lining the A2/M2 and M20/A20 are more likely than on the M180 and nearby roads. Kent has less land readily available for truck stacking.

However, I think this may be where the fear element has been overplayed. We're bound to have some transitional difficulties, but plans are being confirmed and we will get through whatever transpires. We got through WW1 and WW2. We managed with petrol rationing in 1956. We coped with the 3 day week and the miners strike

I'm still in favour of remaining, but every day that passes means that's less likely. We have to make the most of whatever deal we get. My children and grand-children can see that and are having to adapt. It seems we'll probably not get another referendum and an election will only stir things up more. We're getting to damage limitation territory. Europe must be happy to finally get rid of us; to let us stew in our own juice.

So, where's the knight on a white charger to rescue us from all this? To slay the Brexit dragons once and for all and convince us to turn about and return to the EU fold? To live constructively and happily ever after?

It's not a fairy tale.This is real life. Bad endings do happen. I only wish there were such a knight.

.

Can we leave out the "We got through WW1 & WW2" rubbish. They weren't voted for and hundreds of thousands died. And anyway, it wasn't our generation who got through them, our generation have a hissy fit if the central heating isn't working.

nlogax · 1 Oct 2019

fowler9 said:
Can we leave out the "We got through WW1 & WW2" rubbish. They weren't voted for and hundreds of thousands died. And anyway, it wasn't our generation who got through them, our generation have a hissy fit if the central heating isn't working.

Correct. Watch the people who want the 'out at all costs' scenario to happen be the first ones to complain and rage once they realise how badly they're affected by this. 21st century reality is a very different beast to this warped and f***ed-up sepia-tinged nostalgia for the Blitz spirit.

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