I don’t believe the additional 2 minutes has anything to do with 442s. Trawling RTT for August (when 442’s were running) and September (when they were not) shows no significant difference, in the main, of arrival times in Waterloo. For 1P16 442’s recorded quite a number of RT and 1 minute late arrivals. Yes, there were many instances of more than this but looking at the performance of arrivals around that time suggest that the larger delays were part of general performance on the day. Equally, when you look at September (444/450s only) there are many instances of late arrivals, again no doubt influenced by general performance issues. I’ve no doubt that in the early days of running 442s there would have been staff familiarity issues but Drivers tend to work up their driving technique as they gain more experience – conservative at first, then knowing when they can stretch the legs as it were. It would be interesting if any Driver who had worked 442s a number of times since reintroduction could comment (any takers, without compromising their position of course!?). My guess is that the response would be along the lines of “it’s certainly more of a challenge to keep to time with a 442, but with experience and professionalism, it’s achievable”.
Whether the same could be said during the coming leaf fall season is another matter (without re tractioning).
On a more general point, (and a bit off topic but related to 442s), travelling from, say, Havant to Waterloo give me a 442 over a 450 anytime! The off peak “product” has for years been diluted by regularly using 450’s on class 1s. The same currently applies from Fareham where you can have a nice 444 journey or a less comfortable 450. Not good for attracting occasional off peak users (“uncomfortable journey last time, won’t bother if that’s what you get”). Pre 442 proposal I was always hoping that the release of 450s (by the introduction of 707s) would give the opportunity to create a sub fleet of 2+2 seating 450s (like LM). Not only could this have addressed the 3+2 on class 1s it would have created much more flexibility in train formation for the peaks – effectively an opportunity to tweak workings to try to balance the needs of medium and longer distance passengers (like used to happen with CIGs and VEPs); generally 3+2 on the London end if required but 2+2 behind. Certainly from Waterloo I used to witness a lot of “in the know” Petersfield, Havant, Portsmouth passengers move down the platform at Waterloo to get a 2+2 while Woking/Guildford passengers seemed quite happy to take the first available seat (in the VEPs). I think the 442s will be here to stay now (too much already committed to the project) but should they be abandoned then a good look at the LM 350s to create a mixed fleet of 450/350 2+2 (with shoes of course!) would make sense. It’s not rocket science (actually, in today’s railway, it probably is!).