EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Killingworth · 1 Oct 2019

fowler9 said:
Can we leave out the "We got through WW1 & WW2" rubbish. They weren't voted for and hundreds of thousands died. And anyway, it wasn't our generation who got through them, our generation have a hissy fit if the central heating isn't working.

That selective quote misses the point, although in doing so you may have hit another nail on the head. We have become used to things working (trains an obvious exception). With just in time supply chains everything is expected to be in place and perfect.

If we want to bring in voting for wars indeed there weren't elections to enter WW1 or WW2. However at the start of both a vote would probably have been in favour. It was a different world and only later that the implications sank in. Once hostilities begin it's usually too late to stop.

We may not be engaging in hostilities (although some seem to see it that way, or fear it) but we are very near the point of no return with Brexit. But not quite yet. We still have time to stop and take stock. History suggests we won't.

Those with long memories may be able to recall the build up to Suez, or the Falklands. Not relevant here? Possibly not, but the slow build up to both conflicts show positions being developed on both sides that led to ultimately inevitable conflict. However I'll be reminded to stick to topic. Might is usually right, in the short term. I'll leave others to debate who has the might in the Brexit farce. Might between the EU 27 and the UK. Might between Boris's Brexiteer legions and the assorted guerillas of Remain.

RailUK Forums

edwin_m · 1 Oct 2019

Running ferries to Northern ports will increase the number of vessels needed by a factor of several because of the much longer crossings. The costs will go up similarly.

edwin_m · 1 Oct 2019

Killingworth said:
If we want to bring in voting for wars indeed there weren't elections to enter WW1 or WW2. However at the start of both a vote would probably have been in favour. It was a different world and only later that the implications sank in. Once hostilities begin it's usually too late to stop.

At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law I'd say that people would have voted (retrospectively) against WW1 once they found out what things were really like, but I believe in WW2 there was broad public support for the need to defeat the Axis powers even when the true costs of doing so became known. WW1 was brought about by grandstanding between the major powers, but in WW2 there was a clear and present danger of fascism overrunning the free world, and it was only self-inflicted in the sense that the Western powers might have avoided it if they'd had the foresight to stand up to Hitler a few years earlier. But they probably wouldn't have had public support to do that much before when they actually did so in 1939.

fowler9 · 1 Oct 2019

Killingworth said:
That selective quote misses the point, although in doing so you may have hit another nail on the head. We have become used to things working (trains an obvious exception). With just in time supply chains everything is expected to be in place and perfect.

If we want to bring in voting for wars indeed there weren't elections to enter WW1 or WW2. However at the start of both a vote would probably have been in favour. It was a different world and only later that the implications sank in. Once hostilities begin it's usually too late to stop.

We may not be engaging in hostilities (although some seem to see it that way, or fear it) but we are very near the point of no return with Brexit. But not quite yet. We still have time to stop and take stock. History suggests we won't.

Those with long memories may be able to recall the build up to Suez, or the Falklands. Not relevant here? Possibly not, but the slow build up to both conflicts show positions being developed on both sides that led to ultimately inevitable conflict. However I'll be reminded to stick to topic. Might is usually right, in the short term. I'll leave others to debate who has the might in the Brexit farce. Might between the EU 27 and the UK. Might between Boris's Brexiteer legions and the assorted guerillas of Remain.

Sorry mate. That wasn't a personal dig at you. Just that many are invoking the blitz spirit saying we'll be fine when in fact as I said hundreds of thousands or even millions globally died. If that is a Brexiteers view of being fine then I'm out.

edwin_m · 1 Oct 2019

fowler9 said:
Sorry mate. That wasn't a personal dig at you. Just that many are invoking the blitz spirit saying we'll be fine when in fact as I said hundreds of thousands or even millions globally died. If that is a Brexiteers view of being fine then I'm out.

Unfortunately we can't opt out of being out, as it were. It may take ten years to resolve - time I hope to spend working up to retirement, my son's years of growing into adulthood and the dotage of my parents. All of those things are under threat and I don't see why I should just accept that to satisfy the egos of the Brexiteers and line the pockets of the speculators that allegedly back them. There are of course many other people who would suffer much more, including many who voted for Brexit, but I can't see anyone gaining except those few who deserve the opposite.

AM9 · 1 Oct 2019

Killingworth said:
Be careful. Although much perishable cargo comes through Dover we can live without most of it, certainly for a few months. Dover isn't even in the top 8 ports for volume of freight processed. What will happen is that loads will be redistributed between available ports and those best prepared will gain. HGV traffic may reduce as more container cargoes cross for transfer onto trucks nearer destination. Some perishables may make viable air cargoes

Felixstowe, London and the Humber ports are all champing at the bit to put their plans into action. Around Immingham, Grimsby and Hull there's masses of capacity and land for expansion. Freight only ro-ro ferries line up at these ports as well as container and bulk cargo vessels but you won't see them unless you know where to go. You might get a clue if you see the number of trucks heading along the M180, and the long freight trains trundling across North Lincolnshire.

View attachment 68943 View attachment 68944

That's all very well but any short sea route port won't run as smoothly as they do with no disruptive customs activities now, however, the example given by you (given your forum name, presumably local to you), that route has a sailing time of 13 hours between Rotterdam and the UK so thats about another 11 hours added onto the existing total journey time ignoring the additional time to get from central France to the Netherlands.

DynamicSpirit · 1 Oct 2019

Senex said:
That's something that has worried me for some considerable time too, even though I should like nothing more than get a remain vote somehow and stay put. We have behaved so badly and made such a hash of things in our relations with the EU over the last three years that it seems very hard to envisage any way in which we could just switch back to being friends and neighbours. We have a huge job to do to build up trust and credibility—and just to be taken seriously. We have thrown away so much good will. How would other EU members manage just to settle back into an easy and trusting relationship with the British?

I actually wouldn't be too worried about that. Yes, it's true that the UK Government has behaved incredibly badly towards the EU for several years - and especially since the referendum (while all the time seeking to pin the blame on the EU). But the UK is not by any stretch of the imagination the only problem the EU has. To take three examples: Several EU members in Eastern Europe have highly authoritarian Governments that are stamping all over civil rights and press freedoms, in ways that run completely counter to the values of the EU. There are disagreements about who to distribute responsibility for taking migrants amongst EU members, and problems with Greece's economy are still simmering. If the UK were to somehow cancel Brexit and start playing a constructive role again, I'm pretty sure recent concerns about the UK's attitude would very quickly be drowned out by more pressing issues. Besides, Governments change very quickly, which leads to most diplomatic issues quickly fading into the past. Macron is perhaps the leader most hostile to the UK's continued membership... but how likely is it that he'll still be president of France in 5 years' time?

And look at Donald Trump... Not in the EU but has arguably treated most of his allies far worse than the UK has. But you can bet that if he loses the next Presidential Election (or gets impeached) and we have a more enlightened Democrat in the White House in 18 months' time, then much of that bad feeling resulting from Trump will be long forgotten within 6 months. No reason to think it'd be any different for the UK. I think a more serious issue would be if we end up remaining (thanks to another referendum) but still have a Government lead by hard-core Conservatives who have little interest in engaging constructively with the EU... That will be a problem).

Killingworth · 1 Oct 2019

AM9 said:
That's all very well but any short sea route port won't run as smoothly as they do with no disruptive customs activities now, however, the example given by you (given your forum name, presumably local to you), that route has a sailing time of 13 hours between Rotterdam and the UK so thats about another 11 hours added onto the existing total journey time ignoring the additional time to get from central France to the Netherlands.

As I said, once the new regime goes live (that looks increasingly likely, much as I wish it wasn't) new levels of trade will become established.

Let's consider that not all continental traffic comes from France to be coming ashore at Dover. Obviously it will have passed through France to get there.. A lot comes from Holland, Belgium, Germany and the Baltic states and that will take longer to get to Dunkirk or Calais than it would from somewhere like Rotterdam. Once in Britain a lot of the freight doesn't need to drag up to and round London. Note the work now going on to upgrade the A14 from the M11 junction near Cambridge to the A1M, a route intensively used by HGVs coming from Felixstowe to the Midlands.

My two photos of Killingholme, just part of the Humber ports complex, show 3 vessels at the ro-ro facility loading and discharging trucks and new cars. On that day there was masses of space to hold more trucks and cars both ashore and aboard ships. More are loaded in Hull and other bulk cargoes are loaded along the banks of the Humber. HGVs swarm in from the M1 via the M18 and across the M62 to merge on the M180. Again, those loads aren't usually destined for the South-East but the north and the Midlands.

London Gateway has massive capacity to take containers to and from anywhere, as does Felixstowe. And no, I haven't forgotten that much comes through Southampton and the Solent. Yes, customs activity will be a short term challenge until things settle down. We'll have a short term journalists' paradise of crisis on which to report. I'm willing to bet the focus of national TV reports will primarily be on Dover because you get better pictures from the White Cliffs, or with them in the background. Passenger ferries with lots of delayed human sob stories are always better than flat land and lines of trucks and bored truckers with their cargoes lining up in patient ordered lines.

As Corbyn and his mob won't let anyone else lead but him, and too many of those opposing Boris oppose Jeremy even more strongly, it seems we're going to find out how well this can work out very soon.

superkev · 1 Oct 2019

nlogax said:
And rightly so. Why would the EU give us even better terms of membership than the extremely generous ones we already have? There's a bizarre sense of entitlement that Leave supporters seem to possess. We're about to see that be dismantled by leaving without a deal.

I was of the view at the time that a certain Mrs Thatcher would have come back with a better deal. We as a country are less prosperous recently slipping below the French to 7th in the G7 list so perhaps we should pay a bit less.
I suppose with our british arrogance and dislike for Jonny foreigner we've never been truely in it and are soon in for a rude awakening as we slide down the world stage.
K

DerekC · 2 Oct 2019

So now we have Johnson's "take it or leave it" offer. According to the BBC, Northern Ireland stays in the single market for goods but leaves the customs union along with the rest of the UK, so there will need to be "customs facilities" tucked away somewhere on either side of the border. I haven't got my head around what happens at the Irish Sea. NI will be compliant with European standards but the rest of the UK doesn't have to be, so will there need to be checks at ports to make sure there are no illegal imports of the famous chlorinated chicken or whatever in to the EU?

Tetchytyke · 3 Oct 2019

Killingworth said:
We got through WW1 and WW2.

In both cases, but especially WW2, because the Americans turned up with loads of money.

I'm not sure the "Dunkirk spirit" (fleeing into the sea whilst the Germans give us a good thrashing) is quite the spirit those Brexitists are trying to invoke.

Tetchytyke · 3 Oct 2019

Killingworth said:
However at the start of both a vote would probably have been in favour. It was a different world and only later that the implications sank in.

It's not that different a world.

Back in 2003 opinion polls showed 65% of people were in favour of the Iraq war. But now you'll never meet a single soul who'll admit they were in favour. "Tony B.Liar is a war criminal!" is all you'll get off anyone.

In ten years you'll not find anyone who'll admit to being a Brexitist.

Killingworth · 3 Oct 2019

Arctic Troll said:
In both cases, but especially WW2, because the Americans turned up with loads of money.

But aren't they going to do that again, by buying up all our best industries, much as they always do, and playing our tax laws to their advantage - ie. paying as little as possible.

Bezza49 · 3 Oct 2019

Its horrible to read all the posts here clearly from people brainwashed by our mass media's agenda driven "reporting" on Brexit & the EU.

talltim · 3 Oct 2019

Bezza49 said:
Its horrible to read all the posts here clearly from people brainwashed by our mass media's agenda driven "reporting" on Brexit & the EU.

I agree. All those Daily Mail readers...

Carlisle · 3 Oct 2019

DerekC said:
So now we have Johnson's "take it or leave it" offer. According to the BBC, Northern Ireland stays in the single market for goods but leaves the customs union along with the rest of the UK, so there will need to be "customs facilities" tucked away somewhere on either side of the border. I haven't got my head around what happens at the Irish Sea. NI will be compliant with European standards but the rest of the UK doesn't have to be, so will there need to be checks at ports to make sure there are no illegal imports of the famous chlorinated chicken or whatever in to the EU?

Can’t see the EU accepting the proposals in their current form given all sides agreed in 2017 not to introduce any additional checks or border related infrastructure throughout Ireland,
It appears government’s strategy hopes EU states less concerned with the border issue will apply pressure on Ireland to make concessions.

edwin_m · 3 Oct 2019

Carlisle said:
Can’t see the EU accepting the proposals in their current form given all sides agreed in 2017 not to introduce any additional checks or border related infrastructure throughout Ireland,
It appears government’s strategy hopes EU states less concerned with the border issue will apply pressure on Ireland to make concessions.

The reason Johnson reckons the EU might want to do this is because they fear a no-deal outcome. Leaving aside whether that's actually achievable, if it happens Ireland will be the hardest hit of the continuing EU members, because it has proportionately more trade with the UK than other member states. So if Ireland is willing to suffer that rather than back down on the border questions, as seems to be the case, it's unlikely that other EU states would take a different line when the risk to their trade is relatively much smaller.

Yet again the rose-tinted spectacles of the Brexiters seem to be making them unable to empathise with the people across the table.

ainsworth74 · 3 Oct 2019

Strikes me that this is now just a scheme to make it easy to blame the EU/Dublin for no-deal or at the very least for any extension. I.e. "We moved significantly in our position and the recalcitrant Brussels Bureaucrats didn't move an inch, they just want to punish us plucky Brits!" etc etc. Which is clearly preposterous but will play well with the ERG, Tory Party membership and likely Brexit Party voters...

thejuggler · 3 Oct 2019

I strongly suspect what is proposed is nothing new. The EU will be going through their many pages of papers from previous negotiations so they can remind themselves of the reasons why such an approach is not acceptable.

muddythefish · 3 Oct 2019

ainsworth74 said:
Strikes me that this is now just a scheme to make it easy to blame the EU/Dublin for no-deal or at the very least for any extension. I.e. "We moved significantly in our position and the recalcitrant Brussels Bureaucrats didn't move an inch, they just want to punish us plucky Brits!" etc etc. Which is clearly preposterous but will play well with the ERG, Tory Party membership and likely Brexit Party voters...

Yes, agree on this. Johnson describes the new proposals as "fair and reasonable" (which they aren't) so that when the EU and Dublin reject them the Conservative party can then point the finger at Brussels as the guilty party for a no deal.

This is all about electioneering and positioning the Tories as the good guys and "party of the people" (a sick joke after their austerity programme) against the EU / elite / Remain establishment.

greyman42 · 3 Oct 2019

Arctic Troll said:
It's not that different a world.

Back in 2003 opinion polls showed 65% of people were in favour of the Iraq war. But now you'll never meet a single soul who'll admit they were in favour. "Tony B.Liar is a war criminal!" is all you'll get off anyone.

In ten years you'll not find anyone who'll admit to being a Brexitist.

I was in favour of the Iraq war, I don't think Blair is a war criminal and I voted for Brexit.

Carlisle · 3 Oct 2019

edwin_m said:
Ireland will be the hardest hit of the continuing EU members, because it has proportionately more trade with the UK than other member states. .

True, .
The extent that the far right had essentially seized control of the entire leave agenda following the referendum victory, didn’t appear widely anticipated or understood by almost anyone until a while after Cameron’s resignation, which is probably why we weren’t expecting to end up in this mess .

Struner · 3 Oct 2019

All these shenanigans just go to show how much the English care about the Irish (either side of the border)

it makes me greet at times.

najaB · 3 Oct 2019

Struner said:
All these shenanigans just go to show how much the English care about the Irish...

Please don't conflate the actions of a few Eton boys with the English at large, who generally I find to be perfectly agreeable and to hold no ill-will towards either the Irish or those of us north of Hadrian's Wall.

Struner · 3 Oct 2019

I wonder tho. Do they care? There wasn’t much talk about Ireland in the run up to the referendum. Or in the period before A50 was invoked. & the Good Friday Agreement wasn’t one of the Maybot’s red lines. But she wasn’t really challenged on that.

bramling · 3 Oct 2019

najaB said:
Please don't conflate the actions of a few Eton boys with the English at large, who generally I find to be perfectly agreeable and to hold no ill-will towards either the Irish or those of us north of Hadrian's Wall.

I’d say things are a little more nuanced than that. Personally whilst I have no issue with “the Irish”, I do find the whole NI situation has been exasperating at times. Meanwhile, I must admit to being sick of the anti-UK sentiment emanating from the likes of Nicola Sturgeon, although one tries not to rise to it as her whole raison d’etre is to highlight division between England and Scotland. I’d say there’s also some degree of annoyance in England when one considers relative spending per head in the four parts of the UK.

Struner · 3 Oct 2019

& what has this got to do with Ireland? Let alone the GFA?

fowler9 · 3 Oct 2019

bramling said:
I’d say things are a little more nuanced than that. Personally whilst I have no issue with “the Irish”, I do find the whole NI situation has been exasperating at times. Meanwhile, I must admit to being sick of the anti-UK sentiment emanating from the likes of Nicola Sturgeon, although one tries not to rise to it as her whole raison d’etre is to highlight division between England and Scotland. I’d say there’s also some degree of annoyance in England when one considers relative spending per head in the four parts of the UK.

No annoyance from me. When we de industrialised the country Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales were hit as badly as anywhere outside the South East.

AM9 · 3 Oct 2019

Struner said:
& what has this got to do with Ireland? Let alone the GFA?

Sounds like a typical insular English point of view. So to answer your question, nothing at all, but why miss an oportunity to reiterate it here.

fowler9 · 3 Oct 2019

Struner said:
I wonder tho. Do they care? There wasn’t much talk about Ireland in the run up to the referendum. Or in the period before A50 was invoked. & the Good Friday Agreement wasn’t one of the Maybot’s red lines. But she wasn’t really challenged on that.

I don't think many people considered it, then they thought "Oops" when they realised the implications.

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