Rail franchising to face the axe in 2020

Bletchleyite · 15 Oct 2019

DarloRich said:
Is that right is it?

Not in my experience of late. Two of the worst TOCs for delays and cancellations at the moment (Northern and LNR/WMT) are having issues due to a poorly written timetable that nobody here ever thought would work and surprise, surprise it didn't. Going back a bit, GTR had issues due to staff relations (and Northern did too). The Marston Vale is having trouble due to design issues with rolling stock. None of it anything to do with Network Rail.

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Mathew S · 15 Oct 2019

leightonbd said:
Remember that anything in this Queen’s Speech is just a vote-grab ahead of an election in the next 3-6 months. It’s the QS after that which will matter. Both parties policies could easily flip-flop during the campaign.

I can't stress this enough. This Queen's Speech isn't really worth the paper (or calf skin) it's printed on. It's highly unlikely that any legislation on the railways will get parliamentary time prior to an election, or other change of Government. So, although this is a good indication of what a majority Conservative government would like to do, and will most likely include in their manifesto, there is an awful lot that needs to happen before these proposals get anywhere; much of it, dare I say it, a heck of a lot more important and more urgent than the railways.

HH · 15 Oct 2019

I hear that one big change is that new franchises won't carry revenue risk, which would really make them concessions like TfL's. It fits in with the emphasis on performance that has been announced.

On the plus side that would hopefully see the end of various money-go-rounds like Schedule 4, although it will be a bad day for lawyers, given the number of major disputes in recent years.

I have to pull up the Momentum group on here - TOCs are not hoovering vast amounts of cash and they are not "Tory chums". Most of the owning groups have taken several baths and it surely cannot have escaped people's notice how many have been in financial trouble, and/or have left the market, over the years. If you were a Tory looking to make a chum rich, you would not encourage them to run a TOC.

Tetchytyke · 15 Oct 2019

NoMorePacers said:
North Western Trains never went bust. FirstGroup just bought out the other shareholders in Great Western Holdings and made it their own company.

That rather glosses over the huge losses North Western Trains incurred (including a "black hole" in the finances) and the fact First only wanted the GW franchise, and fought very hard to not have to take on NWT too.

class 9 said:
Northern Spirit didn’t go bust either, the parent company MTL (tin pot bus company from Merseyside) was bought by Arriva

MTL were drowning in debt and would have gone under within days if Arriva hadn't bought them. Northern Spirit was the big cause of the difficulties.

Andrew1395 said:
No more insistence on this that and the other. More reward if you win a franchise and do well, and more risk to you if you get it wrong. Maybe more Merseyrail type management of urban services.

Merseyrail, and London Overground, are prescriptive concession agreements. So under that model- one I think is the best compromise as the Tories will never sack off the fat cats- there's more insistence on things, not less.

For "intercity" operations, there needs to be prescriptive conditions because, otherwise, the operators will take the mickey. We've seen that with Virgin and with VTEC, peak restrictions getting longer and more ridiculous (on what planet, exactly, is 3pm peak time?). We've also seen it with XC and their blanket 0930 off-peak restriction regardless of where you're travelling to. And those examples are in a regulated market; imagine what they'd do without restrictions!

Bletchleyite said:
Two of the worst TOCs for delays and cancellations at the moment (Northern and LNR/WMT) are having issues due to a poorly written timetable that nobody here ever thought would work and surprise, surprise it didn't.

This. Also TOCs put stupid rosters together, with minimal PNB time and no recovery allowances between duties, and then try and blame NR for the inevitable delays.

Bletchleyite · 15 Oct 2019

HH said:
I have to pull up the Momentum group on here - TOCs are not hoovering vast amounts of cash and they are not "Tory chums". Most of the owning groups have taken several baths and it surely cannot have escaped people's notice how many have been in financial trouble, and/or have left the market, over the years. If you were a Tory looking to make a chum rich, you would not encourage them to run a TOC.

I think there's a distinct possibility that private-company efficiencies have actually won back that extra money (what is it, about 3% profit margin?), and BR may have actually been less efficient. Hard to know though.

HH · 15 Oct 2019

Djgr said:
Except this is not a minority political view. The last poll that I saw (Independent, 2018) showed 64% of the British public in favour of rail nationalisation, which is ,accordingly to my calculator, a much higher percentage than BoJo, his circus and his plans command.

Not sure what that has to do with "Tory chums"?

Camden · 15 Oct 2019

Chums are people, not companies. No one important has had to go without Prada footwear, let alone go barefoot. Momentum may be a childish yellfest that gets nothing right about anything, but the system certainly does weep money. And where there is money to soak up, you can be guaranteed there will be a certain type of person there soaking it up.

Tory chums? I would say more like the chums of many politicians, as they're one and the same. Noting Labour only went further with privatisation when they got the chance, rather than undo it.

Bletchleyite · 15 Oct 2019

Arctic Troll said:
(on what planet, exactly, is 3pm peak time?)

Don't forget that "peak" doesn't mean "busy", it means "can charge more as most passengers are either season-ticket commuters or business travellers on expenses". As I've said many times if it meant "busy" Friday evenings and Sunday afternoons would be peak.

With a 2 hour ish journey as many IC trips are, there are quite a lot of people who will do a business day trip and aim to leave about 3 to get home the same sort of time they do from the office.

Tetchytyke · 15 Oct 2019

HH said:
TOCs are not hoovering vast amounts of cash and they are not "Tory chums".

The Guardian are reporting Branson and Souter have had over £600m profit out of Virgin Trains.

Destitution income levels indeed.

Bletchleyite · 15 Oct 2019

Arctic Troll said:
The Guardian are reporting Branson and Souter have had over £600m profit out of Virgin Trains.

Destitution income levels indeed.

What percentage of turnover is that?

option · 15 Oct 2019

"Scrapping the rail franchise system - the contracting out of services introduced when the rail system was privatised in the 1990s. Reforms will focus on getting trains to run on time, a simplified fares system, a new commercial model and industry structure, and new proposals for a skilled, diverse and engaged workforce."

So all the problems that cause trains not to run on time are nothing to do with Network Rail? hmmm

The only way to achieve any real change is to pump in much larger amounts of money over many years. Yet any changes made to the current structures & contracts will cost money.

HH · 15 Oct 2019

Camden said:
Chums are people, not companies. No one important has had to go barefoot, let alone go without Prada footwear. Momentum may be a childish yellfest that gets nothing right about anything, but the system certainly does weep money. And where there is money to soak up, you can be guaranteed there will be a certain type of person there soaking it up.

Tory chums? I would say more like the chums of many politicians, as they're one and the same. Noting Labour only went further with privatisation when they got the chance, rather than undo it.

Indeed Chums are people. Which railway people wear prada footwear? I can think of one possibily, but most senior railway people are trying to do a good job, in often quite difficult circumstances; very few, if any, are on the sorts of money you see in other industries. Even if some are overpaid, given their performance, you cannot compare it to what happened at Thomas Cook.

HH · 15 Oct 2019

Arctic Troll said:
The Guardian are reporting Branson and Souter have had over £600m profit out of Virgin Trains.

Destitution income levels indeed.

Neither are railway people, but I would certainly agree that WCML has made a lot of money for those two very rich men thanks to the incompetence of those at NRIL and DfT.

RealTrains07 · 15 Oct 2019

Arctic Troll said:
Nothing has been proposed though. It's all smarm no substance from Johnson and ~~Michael Green~~ Grant Schapps.

Same meat different gravy.

They'll bid if, and only if, there's an extravagantly enormous profit margin involved.

Beardy and the Bus Bandit leaving the industry ain't a bad thing.

First however is a bad thing especially taking over after virgin

shouldn’t have given out WCP until after the franchise system has changed

RealTrains07 · 15 Oct 2019

DarloRich said:
Is that right is it?

Well just because the system changes doesnt mean the TOCs will up their game

option · 15 Oct 2019

RealTrains07 said:
It was stated that the government may adopt a concession system similar to London

Problem with the plans is the new system wont affect any of the current franchises plus you cant just say trains will run on time and expect them to be on time

Most trains are late because of damaged and problematic infrastructure. A new rail system wont change that

DarloRich said:
Is that right is it?

Try the CrossCity south. It's quite regular that there are delays due to signalling issues at Longbridge, & that's been ongoing under multiple franchises.

Then there's the double-track section from Kings Norton to New Street, which has so many services running over it that any delayed train causes issues for all the others.

There are ways to fix it, but that means central government giving up a lot of power.

Speed43125 · 15 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
What percentage of turnover is that?

THAT is the question that needs to asked. Because they do seem to resonate well with the public and most are sad to see VT go, and given the 20 years they've operated the WC stuff. Such a figure isn't hugely surprising. Why else would first be so consistently desperate to get their hands on it?

hwl · 15 Oct 2019

Speed43125 said:
THAT is the question that needs to asked. Because they do seem to resonate well with the public and most are sad to see VT go, and given the 20 years they've operated the WC stuff. Such a figure isn't hugely surprising. Why else would first be so consistently desperate to get their hands on it?

Average of 2.290% for all franchised TOCs in FY2017-18

LNW-GW Joint · 15 Oct 2019

Arctic Troll said:
The Guardian are reporting Branson and Souter have had over £600m profit out of Virgin Trains.
Destitution income levels indeed.

Over 20+ years, so about 2.5% annual margin.
Hardly worth getting out of bed for in fat cat terms.
They also lost £200m on VTEC.

You do realise the DfT endorses long peak hours because they want the increased premiums?
This then funds the basket cases like Northern, through more generous franchise deals than they would otherwise get.

hwl · 15 Oct 2019

HH said:
I hear that one big change is that new franchises won't carry revenue risk, which would really make them concessions like TfL's. It fits in with the emphasis on performance that has been announced.

On the plus side that would hopefully see the end of various money-go-rounds like Schedule 4, although it will be a bad day for lawyers, given the number of major disputes in recent years.

Where on the spectrum compared to Crossrail / LO (some what different) and the pseudo TSGN model?

hwl · 15 Oct 2019

LNW-GW Joint said:
You do realise the DfT endorses long peak hours because they want the increased premiums?
This then funds the basket cases like Northern, through more generous franchise deals than they would otherwise get.

Nothern is circa 60% subsidy from DfT both direct and indirect via NR.

quantinghome · 15 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
What percentage of turnover is that?

Very little I'd imagine. What percentage of Virgin's actual up front investment? Quite a lot.

What profits are ROSCOs making I wonder?

As I see it the bigger issue is the waste due to having to operate within the constraints of a fragmented system. It appears to take an extraordinary effort to achieve the simplest things. The 'friction' losses must be quite substantial.

SamYeager · 15 Oct 2019

Well having waded my way through this thread so far including the argy bargy about it's the other lot's fault not to mention the "fat cats" I think the post by @tbtc as well as the post by @The Ham both deserve rather more discussion than the point point scoring that seems to be going on.

JamesT · 15 Oct 2019

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/looking-after-the-railway/delays-explained/ says 60% of delays are attributable to Network Rail. Claiming most delays are infrastructure may be a bit of a stretch, but focusing on NR rather than the TOCs may well be a better way to get a more reliable railway.

hwl · 15 Oct 2019

JamesT said:
https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/looking-after-the-railway/delays-explained/ says 60% of delays are attributable to Network Rail. Claiming most delays are infrastructure may be a bit of a stretch, but focusing on NR rather than the TOCs may well be a better way to get a more reliable railway.

That 60% also includes "other" e.g. 3rd party, weather and what the insurance industry would call "act of God" type issues (e.g. larger bird damaging windscreens in bird-strikes).

It would be good to see the other category separated and and some of the other split out and publicised!

e.g. severe weather, level crossing misuse, wild animals, off-network vegetation...

Tetchytyke · 15 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
Don't forget that "peak" doesn't mean "busy", it means "can charge more as most passengers are either season-ticket commuters or business travellers on expenses".

As I said, on what planet is 3pm "peak"?

HH said:
Neither are railway people, but I would certainly agree that WCML has made a lot of money for those two very rich men thanks to the incompetence of those at NRIL and DfT.

Railtrack being unable to tell their bumhole from their elbow was the real money-spinner for those two. Which makes it even more mad, the taxpayer forking out for the incompetence of private companies.

Bletchleyite said:
What percentage of turnover is that?

Does it matter? It's £600m that could- and should- have been invested in the network, but instead was spirited away to a tax haven.

JamesT said:
60% of delays are attributable to Network Rail.

Suicides, extreme weather, trespassers, vandals and even some bird strikes are all attributable to Network Rail. As your link says, 20% of delays are in these categories, meaning Network Rail and the TOCs share the remaining 80% on a 50/50 split.

It's also a quirk that TOCs pass the delay minutes on to NR even when the ongoimg effects are really down to TOCs not providing any recovery time or resilience in their crewing rosters.

Meerkat · 15 Oct 2019

Arctic Troll said:
Does it matter? It's £600m that could- and should- have been invested in the network, but instead was spirited away to a tax haven.

I will give you the tax haven outrage but you are just guessing that the £600m exists in your counterfactual.

Tetchytyke · 15 Oct 2019

Meerkat said:
you are just guessing that the £600m exists in your counterfactual

Unless you're a) telling me Beardy brought us £600m efficiency savings that the Intercity managers he hired wouldn't have otherwise given us, or b) that he pulled this money out of his bum, it's a fair bet that the £600m would have existed had we kept British Rail.

CC 72100 · 15 Oct 2019

Arctic Troll said:
It's also a quirk that TOCs pass the delay minutes on to NR even when the ongoimg effects are really down to TOCs not providing any recovery time or resilience in their crewing rosters.

That's the result of the 'allocate to root cause' nature of the delay attribution process, which even those involved don't always agree with.

I would also point out that the scenario you have mentioned is not always the case.

Say for example a fatality occurred on Monday, the delay incident goes to Netwoek Rail. The driver is then off trains.

Tuesday there were rest day anyway - no problems.

Wednesday they are due back in, but not fit to return yet. No-one available to cover their turn. 4 trains get cancelled. That delay will get allocated to the TOC and the traincrew depot, even though the root cause is the fatality on Monday (which is NR responsibility).

Tetchytyke · 15 Oct 2019

CC 72100 said:
Wednesday they are due back in, but not fit to return yet. No-one available to cover their turn. 4 trains get cancelled. That delay will get allocated to the TOC and the traincrew depot

That boils down to the perennial issue of TOCs not employing enough drivers to cover for sickness absence, and the reasons why.

Rail franchising to face the axe in 2020

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