EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

edwin_m · 24 Oct 2019

Sad Sprinter said:
I can say now that having a second referendum with a remain vote would cause disaster. I have canvassed People in places like Kent who take the mentality that their vote means nothing and so they will no longer exercise it. There are leave voters who generally think there is a system running against them (true), and we are in terrible danger of disenfranchising people by proxy. I’m afraid that the people I have spoken to in person who are most rabid about a second referendum bat away how leavers will feel with a remain vote with a hand wave.

The downfall of Margret Thatcher by europhille forces caused a toxic atmosphere of undying loyalty to Mrs Thatcher and thus euroscepticism in the Conservative Party which ultimately blew up in Cameron’s face. Cancelling Brexit will cause an atmosphere in that party far worse.

So we should avoid a democratic vote because some people won't like the result? There are plenty of people who don't accept the 2016 result because of the highly dubious tactics that secured it.

It won't be pleasant, but I believe a referendum on a proposed deal is the least bad way to try to close this issue down and let the government get on with something that will help the disenfranchised people of the country rather than making things worse. As long as the campaign was fair and truthful, I believe most Remainers would accept that a further vote to leave was indeed the will of the people (however misguided).

And Thatcher was broadly pro-Europe through most of her term, being very instrumental in securing the single market for example, and even in the height of the negotiations on the rebate I don't recall any suggestion of leaving. Only in her final years did she turn against the EU, along with other misguided policies such as the poll tax which led to her removal from the leadership.

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Bletchleyite · 24 Oct 2019

nlogax said:
All boils down to Corbyn appearing to be utterly out of the loop when it comes to Labour's policies on Brexit, his apparent inability to stamp out antisemitism within his party and a general air of not being bothered or being clear about his position. Many of Labour's policies have a lot of broad support across the country, especially when it comes to public bodies such as the NHS - but the man himself is less popular than those policies and is a real liability and obstacle to Labour regaining power.

I totally agree - Momentum have effectively destroyed the party. If it fielded a moderate similar to Blair (minus grin and war), Milliband or even Brown I am pretty sure it would win a landslide at any general election. As it is it will be trounced in favour of a large Tory majority.

DynamicSpirit · 24 Oct 2019

Sad Sprinter said:
I can say now that having a second referendum with a remain vote would cause disaster. I have canvassed People in places like Kent who take the mentality that their vote means nothing and so they will no longer exercise it.

Well, boo-hoo. Sorry, but in my experience, the people who have that kind of mentality are basically the same people who, no matter what the Government does, always find some excuse to say 'no-one cares about me. They're all corrupt. I don't why I bother voting, etc. etc.' They are the same people who lap up every untrue conspiracy theory they see on Facebook that makes out that the 'elite' (whoever they are) are out to get you! If you think those people are going to change their mentality just because they get what they want on Brexit, you're going to be very sadly disappointed.

Bottom line: The last referendum was completely flawed because it pitched one definite option ('don't change anything') with against a phrase 'leave the EU' which encompassed several different and mutually contradictory options - and that is no way to make a decision - and is of course the reason why the Government has been basically paralysed over Brexit for over 3 years now. In order to have a workable referendum, you have to have two clearly defined options that you can put against each other. If we have a 2nd referendum with a specifically defined and ready-to-go Brexit on the table, that can be enacted the day after the referendum, and that referendum votes to proceed with Brexit, then I'll personally be very disappointed, but in that scenario, we'll legitimately be able to go ahead with Brexit.

But you seem to be suggesting that we should go ahead with a Brexit now - which on opinion poll evidence, most people no longer want - purely in order to assuage the feelings of a minority of cynics who, frankly, don't appear to understand how democracy and decision-making work. That is what would be the disaster!

furnessvale · 24 Oct 2019

HSTEd said:
An act enabling the referendum could empower, and direct, the Chief Counting Officer to send the notification that the United Kingdom accepts the deal immediately upon a yes result being confirmed, or to send the notification that the United Kingdom wishes to revoke its Article 50 notification immediately upon a no result being confirmed.

There would be no time for Parliament to reverse it, and it would be a fait accompli.

And, for the sake of argument, an incoming government with a sufficient majority and the political will, could simply restart article 50.

Puffing Devil · 24 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
I totally agree - Momentum have effectively destroyed the party. If it fielded a moderate similar to Blair (minus grin and war), Milliband or even Brown I am pretty sure it would win a landslide at any general election. As it is it will be trounced in favour of a large Tory majority.

Unfortunately very true. Though the press have not helped his image.

furnessvale said:
And, for the sake of argument, an incoming government with a sufficient majority and the political will, could simply restart article 50.

Maybe a change to EU law - only one notice to leave every 10 years, in the case is it rescinded.

ainsworth74 · 24 Oct 2019

Bletchleyite said:
I totally agree - Momentum have effectively destroyed the party. If it fielded a moderate similar to Blair (minus grin and war), Milliband or even Brown I am pretty sure it would win a landslide at any general election. As it is it will be trounced in favour of a large Tory majority.

No they've ensured the ideological purity of the party. Who needs to win an election and actually have the opportunity to roll out your agenda as long the ideology is pure?

DerekC · 24 Oct 2019

DynamicSpirit said:
Well, boo-hoo. Sorry, but in my experience, the people who have that kind of mentality are basically the same people who, no matter what the Government does, always find some excuse to say 'no-one cares about me. They're all corrupt. I don't why I bother voting, etc. etc.' They are the same people who lap up every untrue conspiracy theory they see on Facebook that makes out that the 'elite' (whoever they are) are out to get you! If you think those people are going to change their mentality just because they get what they want on Brexit, you're going to be very sadly disappointed.

I think you have to look behind Brexit to see why more people are feeling more angry about "the system" and "the elite" - and it's about the increasing gap between rich and poor. Get the gap too wide and you have a revolution on your hands. We were all told pre-Brexit that the country was richer than it has ever been and that membership of the EU was helping us, yet many people in the post-2008 austerity world felt rightly that they hadn't benefited at all - in fact they had gone backwards. So they looked for someone to blame and believed the Brexiteers when they said it would all be fixed if we stopped free movement and "took back control". It now seems pretty clear that we are leaving - I think, regretfully, that we are past the point of no return. And the Brexiteers will blame the inevitable downturn on Parliament, delays to Brexit and lack of a "clean break" - and they will be believed for at least one election and maybe two. After that - who knows? Labour will hopefully have rebuilt itself by then and can offer a credible candidate and a proper policy of equitable taxation.

furnessvale · 24 Oct 2019

Puffing Devil said:
Maybe a change to EU law - only one notice to leave every 10 years, in the case is it rescinded.

May as well go the whole hog. The "democratic" EU could ban any leaving.....ever!

nlogax · 24 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
May as well go the whole hog. The "democratic" EU could ban any leaving.....ever!

That's just daft.

Peter Kelford · 24 Oct 2019

DynamicSpirit said:
Reasonably honest and of sound and stable character.

Not corrupt

Has an idea of where they want to take the country.

Motivated to a large extent by the desire to help people and do good for the country and all of humanity

Pragmatic: Willing to change their approach according to circumstances

Willing to listen to and respect expert opinion, scientific evidence etc., and to change their mind based on that evidence

Respectful of democracy, the law, the judiciary and the British constitution

Has the basic managerial skills needed to work with people and get things done

Reasonably intelligent - enough to be able to read complex documents, and work with complex problems and figure out possible solutions rationally.

Points scored to possible PMs:

Johnson:

1] Proven not to be. - 0 points
2] Unknown - (benefit of the doubt) - 1 point
3] Unknown - 0 points
4] Unlikely - (benefit of the doubt) - 1 point
5] True - sort of - 1 point
6] Denounces experts instead, false - 0 points
7] Ruled by Supreme Court to be false - 0 points
8] Sort of - 1 point
9] Sort of - 1 point

Total 5/9

Corbyn:

1] Yes - 1 point
2] Unlikely - 1 point
3] Appears so - 1 point
4] Probably - 1 point
5] Sort of- 1 point
6] Most likely true - 1 point
7] True - 1 point
8] Partially - 1 point
9] Appears so - 1 point

Total: 9/9

I don't know why one ideology, seen as rational to a large number and extreme to others, is more rational than another idea, rational to a similarly large number and equally extreme to others.

furnessvale · 24 Oct 2019

nlogax said:
That's just daft.

And the first suggestion isn't?

nlogax · 24 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
And the first suggestion isn't?

Far less daft than yours I'm afraid.

furnessvale · 24 Oct 2019

nlogax said:
Far less daft than yours I'm afraid.

Don't be afraid, your opinion is as valid as anyone else, including me, on this forum.

nlogax · 24 Oct 2019

So.. general election on December 12th or not? Rumour is that Labour is likely to vote against it.

DynamicSpirit · 24 Oct 2019

What a manipulative PM we have! 'I'll let you have adequate time to scrutinise the Brexit bill ONLY if you give me an election in the middle of December'. I'm pretty sure a Prime Minister who had any integrity would just give Parliament the time it needs to scrutinise the Brexit agreement bill properly - there's no need whatsoever to attach conditions to the process, you just have to allocate Parliament enough time!

Spamcan81 · 24 Oct 2019

nlogax said:
So.. general election on December 12th or not? Rumour is that Labour is likely to vote against it.

Elsewhere it's being reported that Labour have said they'll abstain. Also it seems the budget has been pulled. Probably academic now but I read an interesting article about the dangers of a December election. It said that if it's cold, many of the blue rinse brigade could well decide not to turn out and they are mostly Bozo supporters. Also pointed put that it's nativity play season and woe betide the person who causes them to be cancelled due to the school hall being needed as a polling station. Makes you kinda wish he could get his way if the decision damaged his chances.

Peter Kelford · 24 Oct 2019

DynamicSpirit said:
What a manipulative PM we have! 'I'll let you have adequate time to scrutinise the Brexit bill ONLY if you give me an election in the middle of December'. I'm pretty sure a Prime Minister who had any integrity would just give Parliament the time it needs to scrutinise the Brexit agreement bill properly - there's no need whatsoever to attach conditions to the process, you just have to allocate Parliament enough time!

Spamcan81 said:
Elsewhere it's being reported that Labour have said they'll abstain. Also it seems the budget has been pulled. Probably academic now but I read an interesting article about the dangers of a December election. It said that if it's cold, many of the blue rinse brigade could well decide not to turn out and they are mostly Bozo supporters. Also pointed put that it's nativity play season and woe betide the person who causes them to be cancelled due to the school hall being needed as a polling station. Makes you kinda wish he could get his way if the decision damaged his chances.

Boris Johnson should count his blessings in the fact that no one else is stooping to his lows. He'd have some impossible to comply with legislation effectively putting him in prison or at least out of a job if that was the case.

Puffing Devil · 24 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
May as well go the whole hog. The "democratic" EU could ban any leaving.....ever!

You're back. Not seen you since we asked your considered opinion on international trade and you vanished. Now you return with an appeal to the absurd.

While you're here please explain the fiscal benefit to the country of the Boris deal?

Esker-pades · 24 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
May as well go the whole hog. The "democratic" EU could ban any leaving.....ever!

In much the same way that our parliament, in theory, could pass an act that makes Boris Johnson PM for life.

Seriously, not going to happen.

furnessvale · 24 Oct 2019

FelixtheCat said:
In much the same way that our parliament, in theory, could pass an act that makes Boris Johnson PM for life.

Seriously, not going to happen.

I was responding to a comment that the so called democratic EU could enact legislation banning the UK from even applying to leave for, say, 10 years.

Given a PM with balls, seriously, not going to happen.

furnessvale · 24 Oct 2019

Puffing Devil said:
You're back. Not seen you since we asked your considered opinion on international trade and you vanished. Now you return with an appeal to the absurd.

While you're here please explain the fiscal benefit to the country of the Boris deal?

Who is the "we"?, and I don't do set homework, take it or leave it.

Esker-pades · 24 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
I was responding to a comment that the so called democratic EU could enact legislation banning the UK from even applying to leave for, say, 10 years.

Given a PM with balls, seriously, not going to happen.

I did see that. There is some logic to trying to prevent member states constantly invoking then recinding article 50. Your extension of that logic doesn't quite work.

Enthusiast · 24 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
May as well go the whole hog. The "democratic" EU could ban any leaving.....ever!

nlogax said:
That's just daft

Not as daft as you'd have us believe. Mrs May's "Withdrawal" Agreement (aka an alternative to the Lisbon Treaty) contained some passages which consigned the UK to aspects of an alternative membership from which it could not resign without the EU's consent. The EU was perfectly happy with those conditions (as well they might be).

Puffing Devil · 24 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
Who is the "we"?, and I don't do set homework, take it or leave it.

Let's swap "we" for me.

Do you have any positive fiscal benefits for your beloved Brexit deal or are you going to run away and hide again?

furnessvale · 24 Oct 2019

Puffing Devil said:
Let's swap "we" for me.

Do you have any positive fiscal benefits for your beloved Brexit deal or are you going to run away and hide again?

Plenty thanks.

Puffing Devil · 24 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
Plenty thanks.

Excellent - lay them out for me. I can't see any.

Peter Kelford · 25 Oct 2019

FelixtheCat said:
In much the same way that our parliament, in theory, could pass an act that makes Boris Johnson PM for life.

Seriously, not going to happen.

Or one, like I said earlier, that puts him in prison for life.

Peter Kelford · 25 Oct 2019

furnessvale said:
Plenty thanks.

On his behalf I shall respond with what I find are likely benefits:

Benefitting from tax opacity - saving money.
Not having to comply (if he is a manager) with 'labour laws' - saving money.
Not having to comply (if he is a producer) with 'quality laws'- saving money.

furnessvale · 25 Oct 2019

Puffing Devil said:
Excellent - lay them out for me. I can't see any.

All have been rehearsed many times within the 21000 posts in this thread and more in others.

You disagree with them which is your right but I have no intention of getting back on the roundabout.

Howardh · 25 Oct 2019

So how is someone on a private and state pension gonna benefit financially from Brexit? I need to know as I'm trying to plan the next ten years and will have savings to turn into an annuity for starters. If the answer is "don't know" then that's not good enough, I'd rather stay with the devil we know - low inflation, low-ish but stable interest rates. No good if inflation kicks off unless I accept a lower annuity but it's index linked.

EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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