The Government has recently said that it is considering stripping Arriva of its northern franchise, but TPE has been even worse with multiply cancellations and i have had to travel with them unfortunately. Will the government eventually strip firstgroup of this franchise?
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Will First group be stripped of the TPE franchise?
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Agent_Squash
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The Tories won’t be stripping either franchise anytime soon - it’s political posturing for the upcoming General Election.
Failed Unit
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As GTR are significantly worse and in his own consituancy - if he strips Northern, the people that live in Great Northern GTR land will be asking Grant, why Northern are getting stripped but GTR can do what they like unpunsihed. A can of worms he won't want to open up.
There is another thread on here about the issues TPE are currently facing. Take the time to digest why all the canx are happening and it might make a bit more sense.
With respect to all here that have commented, it is clear that many operators have serious issues with many aspects of their franchises. To state one is worse than all the rest is quite tricky overall (although it’s easy to suggest that the operator that you use is the worst because you are more familiar with them through having to use them and it’s also sometimes difficult to comprehend anything being any worse)
Randomer
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Personally TPE at least appear to have some cake in the future (in the new longer units with greater capacity even if they are much later than the franchise agreement) to which politicians can point to. The faces of people on a busy platform in Leeds today when a plain white 802 turned up and they didn't have to crush onto a 185 made me think this at least. It should give them a couple of years breathing space at least.
Northern, meanwhile have introduced new units with not particularly greater capacity. In some cases running 3 coach units on services that were historically doubled up with thru connections to spread loading whilst being poisoned by the politics of retaining units well past there life (Pacers or Class 150) with an incredibly cheap refurb done on retained stock. Whilst other franchises (GA or TfW for example) have gone for much bigger stock replacement options which I suspect the DfT would never have allowed for Northern on cost grounds.
Both have had and will continue to have massive issues due to infrastructure outside any TOC control such as the Castlefield corridor congestion and late electrification delivery. I can't see how those issues can be laid at the door of Northern or TPE.
Northern, meanwhile have introduced new units with not particularly greater capacity. In some cases running 3 coach units on services that were historically doubled up with thru connections to spread loading whilst being poisoned by the politics of retaining units well past there life (Pacers or Class 150) with an incredibly cheap refurb done on retained stock. Whilst other franchises (GA or TfW for example) have gone for much bigger stock replacement options which I suspect the DfT would never have allowed for Northern on cost grounds.
Both have had and will continue to have massive issues due to infrastructure outside any TOC control such as the Castlefield corridor congestion and late electrification delivery. I can't see how those issues can be laid at the door of Northern or TPE.
quantinghome
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I can. A TOC should understand the capacity limits of the infrastructure it uses. It should not sign up to a timetable that exceeds those limits. If it signs up to a timetable that is contingent on promised infrastructure upgrades; it should wait until those upgrades are completed before implementing a new timetable. If those infrastructure upgrades are delayed (e.g. electrification), or are not implemented at all (e.g. Piccadilly platforms 15/16) it should tell the DfT that the agreed timetable improvements will have to wait. What it should not do is plough on regardless and then look all surprised when the inevitable service meltdown occurs.
Exactly. And why would they have wanted to press on with May 2018? An additional path to Newcastle, and the associated ORCATS benefit...
quantinghome
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It's instructive to compare TPE and Northern to LNER, who are rolling out one new train a week, within the existing timetable pattern, with major timetable overhauls happening only AFTER new trains are bedded in.
Indeed there is a lot of conflation on these forums of a-Northern is not all to blame and b-Northern is not at all to blame.
GTR stats overall are pretty good and improving.
What the government actually meant was asking Northern for a list of what they think could sort (and by when, potential solutions) and what was just impossible in the DfT specification or where things have changed (electrification delays) outside Northern control. This will then be benchmarked against what DfT's OLR team doing the same exercise all for the purposes of renegotiating the franchise. Unless Arriva and the OLR team are of radically different thinking there in no chance of stripping especially if Northern are pretty straight with the issues.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Both franchises must be in financial trouble.
First have said they will take a £106m hit over 2 years (2019/20) for TPE, which means they are going to tough it out and deliver the agreed financials to DfT.
Bidding for ICWC meant they could hardly pull out, and now they have won that franchise it gives them some breathing space.
Northern have probably said they are not prepared to carry on with the current contract.
Arriva is negotiating a direct award for XC and is probably in no position to underwrite Northern to the end of the franchise.
Hence the planning for a direct award, with OLR brought in to benchmark the options.
While threatening noises have been made by DfT, the vibes don't feel like a "stripping" for poor delivery performance such as Andy Burnham has been seeking.
It feels more like VTEC where both sides recognise that the franchise financial targets cannot be met.
Arriva is also up for sale by DB and could change hands at any time.
Arriva is also challenging its disqualification from franchise bids, alongside Stagecoach and Virgin.
These are factors which DfT has to weigh up before pulling the plug.
No doubt the media will scream "bail out" and "reward for failure" if Arriva get a direct award, but it's not as simple as that.
Just my 2p.
First have said they will take a £106m hit over 2 years (2019/20) for TPE, which means they are going to tough it out and deliver the agreed financials to DfT.
Bidding for ICWC meant they could hardly pull out, and now they have won that franchise it gives them some breathing space.
Northern have probably said they are not prepared to carry on with the current contract.
Arriva is negotiating a direct award for XC and is probably in no position to underwrite Northern to the end of the franchise.
Hence the planning for a direct award, with OLR brought in to benchmark the options.
While threatening noises have been made by DfT, the vibes don't feel like a "stripping" for poor delivery performance such as Andy Burnham has been seeking.
It feels more like VTEC where both sides recognise that the franchise financial targets cannot be met.
Arriva is also up for sale by DB and could change hands at any time.
Arriva is also challenging its disqualification from franchise bids, alongside Stagecoach and Virgin.
These are factors which DfT has to weigh up before pulling the plug.
No doubt the media will scream "bail out" and "reward for failure" if Arriva get a direct award, but it's not as simple as that.
Just my 2p.
Wilts Wanderer
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Evidently you misunderstand the nature of the relationship between a TOC and the DfT.
I’d also point out that each franchise agrees it’s Service Level Commitment in isolation without any true knowledge of what other operators on shared routes (such as Castlefield corridor) are being contracted to bid for. I imagine the Northern service would have worked, if it weren’t for the TPE parallel enhancements (the infrastructure delays notwithstanding) - or at least their relative positions in the overall timetable. The fault in fact lies entirely with DafT for contracting multiple incompatible SLCs. This is the result of their ideology that ‘the market will sort it out’ - that mantra results in a May 2018-type debacle.
Looks like TPE for want of a better word are hanging people out to dry East of Doncaster today...No special recorded announcements about the disruption or on the information boards there, they just show “cancelled” leaving the poor staff to take the flack.
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Ironically, the track isn't very dry at Doncaster, and, as far as I know, there isn't a diversionary route that isn't a) massively circuitous, or b) one that TPE sign.
It looks like TransPennine are on the DfTs watch list at least, this is from 3 months ago
https://www.cityam.com/southeastern-among-franchises-placed-on-public-takeover-watch-list/
”The source said the OLR had been “beefing up” its mobilisation team in the past six months and that there were now shadow teams for Southeastern and five other franchises – South Western (SWR), TransPennine Express (TPE), Northern, CrossCountry and c2c – in offices in Petty France near Whitehall.”
https://www.cityam.com/southeastern-among-franchises-placed-on-public-takeover-watch-list/
”The source said the OLR had been “beefing up” its mobilisation team in the past six months and that there were now shadow teams for Southeastern and five other franchises – South Western (SWR), TransPennine Express (TPE), Northern, CrossCountry and c2c – in offices in Petty France near Whitehall.”
quantinghome
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DfT are clearly at fault. That does not absolve the TOCs. What company signs up to contractual commitments dependent on outcomes beyond their control without a get out clause?
Any company bidding for a franchise in the UK passenger rail sector?
Clarence Yard
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They don’t. That’s why there are such things as IADs or IRADs and SoSRA’s, i.e. infrastructure/rolling stock/timetable conditions (some or all of which) are built into an individual FA. The absence of these being met triggers Change re-openers in the contract.
Some franchises/direct awards have been in constant Change renegotiation almost since they were signed. The biggest factor in these has been NR either not delivering on infrastructure or not delivering on the timetable specification that they previously told the DfT could be delivered.
There comes a point when the original contract is effectively frustrated, it would take an age to work out what happens in the future on the Change terms and that is when both parties agree to reset the whole thing by moving to a new direct award or handing the keys back.
These days you have to book expected losses up front so making a one off and hefty onerous provision in the books at franchise start isn’t an indication that the franchise is in total trouble. Most owning groups would hope to lessen that as the contract goes on, returning the loss provision into the profit line as the actual losses over time don’t turn out to be as bad as they first thought. Only if the losses continue to mount year on year should anyone get really concerned.
TPE seem to have had a lot more cancellations in the last two weeks, almost all attributed to lack of train crew (excluding the weekend's flooding). Is it as simple as it being half-term exacerbating their current problems? If so to be thrown by something so knowable and predictable is quite an indicment on them as a company
YorkshireBear
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More cancellations this morning. Last Friday was appalling with numerous trains cancelled completely or in part. One conductor even decided to be sassy and sarcastic to passengers he was turfing off a Newcastle service at Leeds. Safe to say I gave him a piece of my mind.
Absolutely & considering the Liverpool -Scotland services haven’t yet started, you’d think there’d at least be a few more spare crew available until they do, but WCML routed TPE cancellations currently seem to be as bad as ever .
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MetroCar4058
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Does anyone know why the service fell apart between Manchester and York today between 6-8pm? Trains to Middlesborough and Newcastle accumulated some heft delay and subsequent cancellation.
Northern have some serious staffing issues. They are not blameless.
But I would agree there are particular fundamental problems that out of Northern's & TPE's control. They could work more collaboratively to avoid timetabling issues. The problem is the DfT or Network Rail don't want to step in and say "the timetable does not work" as it'll be an admittal of failure/liability. Not to mention it works okay for both those parties to let Northern and TPE take the passenger 'flak'.
The DfT's unwillingness to invest in schemes that were factored into the 2016 franchise agreements (Castlefield Corridor upgrade) and Network Rail's continued blind insistence to operate an flawed, and unreliable timetable - and to both somehow think everything is okay both boggles the mind.
You only have to stand on Manchester Piccadilly platforms 13 & 14 rush hour every day to realise are inherent structural flaws with the timetable that can impact the entire national network.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Network Rail are not telling Northern to operate an unworkable timetable. I'm quite certain they would be happy for Northern to lop a load of services out.
The North (West, mostly)'s unworkable timetable and unit/staff diagramming is entirely down to the incompetence of Northern's management, just as LNR's woes are caused by the timetabling and diagramming incompetence of that TOC's management. I wouldn't even blame the planning staff themselves - they were almost certainly told to get on and do it whether they liked it or not.
Of course, TPE (in Northern's case) and VTWC (in LNR's case) are adversely affected by this incompetence even though it's not of their doing.
I wish people could see what goes on inside TPE on a daily basis, rather than being taken in by the spin and PR (which is one thing TPE are very good at). Yes there are well known infrastructure issues but TPE itself is an utter shambles, far too many issues to list here but the December timetable change is going to be "interesting" to say the least.
43074
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Yes I'm sure they would, indeed the first of the (NR) reports on the Castlefield corridor essentially suggests in the short term the only solution is to remove trains from the timetable, that is just a difficult pill to swallow for the politicians and others who seem to believe "the more we run the better we're doing."
Part of it is also the DfT specification which is unworkable, but then TPE/Northern didn't exactly help themselves by having ridiculous short turnarounds amongst other things at places like Manchester Airport and Scarborough in the first version of the May 18 timetable anyway.
This is the issue, so many people get taken in by it. The Franchise has always been run on Minimal Cost, Minimal service level and it's finally coming back to bite them. for example, i know of a few crew diagrams where you work a train to XXX, get relieved and work another one back 20min later, however it's quite often later and there is no cover so that spreads delay to the next trip and often a cancellation at the other end of the turn.
Also that Everything has to go through Manchester doesn't help when things go wrong as you've loads of people phoning the same 5-6 Numbers, they won't allow decision making by the Supervisors/Duty Managers in York, Liverpool, Hull etc. Other TOCs have moved on from that.
Bletchleyite
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Yes, this is the problem (and it's exactly the same problem on LNR). Thameslink does something similar, but keeps it all simple, and by and large it works. When it ends up in a mess, you can just cancel a round trip or turn a train short and everything is back where it should be in one go.
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