As for the franchise renewal, I spoke to recruitment at the beginning of the year and I was told that nothing would be happening until it became clearer what was happening re the franchise (I think it was due to be announced in April).
And yet, there has been a heavy recruitment drive this year for Victoria and Charing Cross. Existing staff need to be replaced through natural turnover. Recruitment adverts appear for minimal times as they may only need a couple of Drivers replaced rather than a sustained drive. Not forgetting that internally, courses need to be arranged and planned for the year. I know someone booked on the March course, which shows that there is a lot of forward planning and long term strategies in place. The process just ticks along and by the time depot A gets filled, they need depot B and C recruited for because someone has transferred, left, retired or sacked. My depot is a prime example. Last year we were full and had no more trainees, within a month or so we had trainees going through the school. The last of which should pass out next month. Next month, we will be short of Drivers :/
I got a PM from someone who said something similar. They spoke with HR and was told that there are no spaces, no mention of the franchise but just not required at the moment. Give it time and there will be spaces somewhere. SE has a high turnover of Drivers so I have no doubts they will recruit again.
I assumed this was because they would be recruiting on the promise of improved/more services in their franchise bid as opposed to maintaining what they already were doing.
The franchise spec will outline a minimal service requirement and the bidder must submit their plans and outline various staffing commitments/levels. I would always expect a push in recruitment as it would score highly in any bid.