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First Group: General Discussion

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winston270twm

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mic said:
thanks for info i bet some buses will be returning of lease from diamond and going to oldham if they have gone to Dublin not yet re-registered still showing on DVLA as uk regs
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The following have already been returned off lease to First Group, most have since re-appeared with FSY:

Nov - 33705; 33717; 33720; 33726
Oct - 33714; 33729; 33739
 
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Volvodart

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Volvodart said:
With the vastly reduced expected disposal proceeds, I would have thought an IPO might be more likely for Arriva.
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My crystal ball was correct. DB plans to float Arriva on the Stock Market in May 2020 by minority stake and then further tranches over the next 3 years, so Firstrgroup does not have this obstacle with respect to First Bus sale.
 
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winston270twm

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Volvodart said:
My crystal ball was correct. DB plans to float Arriva on the Stock Market in May 2020 by minority stake and then further tranches over the next 3 years, so Firstrgroup does not have this obstacle with respect to First Bus sale.
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They are now only going down the IPO route because DB couldn't raise the value for Arriva they wanted, UK pension deficits were noted as a big stumbling block - whilst there may now be less for sale, that still doesn't bode well for First Group UK Bus valuations, it's still a buyers market. Additionally, there's no guarantee the IPO will raise what DB need either, appetite for large transport groups on LSE is mixed, NX & Go-Ahead are near highs, Stagecoach & First Group are nearer lows.
 
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Volvodart

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First are not intending the pension fund to be sold, they are intending to use disposal proceeds to make the fund "self sufficient".
 
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Robertj21a

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Volvodart said:
First are not intending the pension fund to be sold, they are intending to use disposal proceeds to make the fund "self sufficient".
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Apart from Greyhound there's little evidence of First disposing of enough to make the fund self sufficient.
 
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Volvodart

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The amount needed is now less than £400 million (down from the expected £550 million) they surely would get that for First Bus. I should point out that First did not specifically say that was what was to be paid, they said that is what the fund needed, so they might not be the same thing.
 
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winston270twm

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Volvodart said:
First are not intending the pension fund to be sold, they are intending to use disposal proceeds to make the fund "self sufficient".
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Yes, I know, but there's a lot more for potential buyers to consider these days.... i.e. potential for future clean air zones being introduced, No of existing Euro 6 buses within fleet, prospect of Quality Contracts being introduced in certain areas etc

Buyers are becoming very cautious these days & valuations are matched to suit their caution. Long gone are the days of stupid valuations just to buy market share.
 
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winston270twm

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Robertj21a said:
Apart from Greyhound there's little evidence of First disposing of enough to make the fund self sufficient.
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Even the Greyhound process is slow, and now UK Bus disposal are being pushed back to try & increase margins & thus their value.
 
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winston270twm

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Robertj21a said:
Quite. Little *real* progress, just more of the usual delays in implementation.
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Spot on. No actual confirmed disposal's since the Rotala Bolton deal was announced, even the Manchester disposal didn't get completed in full & they're still stuck with Oldham.

I suspect that UK Bus disposal's have also been touted behind the scenes for far longer than has been made public.
 
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Volvodart

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winston270twm said:
Even the Greyhound process is slow, and now UK Bus disposal are being pushed back to try & increase margins & thus their value.
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I suspect that the margin was facing a decline this year rather than to increase it further. The margin was well down from last year for the first 6 months and the 2018 comparative included £3.2 million of losses for the Manchester businesses sold this year, but the losses for that this year prior to disposal are shown elsewhere.
 
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winston270twm

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Volvodart said:
I suspect that the margin was facing a decline this year rather than to increase it further. The margin was well down from last year for the first 6 months and the 2018 comparative included £3.2 million of losses for the Manchester businesses sold this year, but the losses for that this year prior to disposal are shown elsewhere.
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Got to admit, I never studied the Half Year results that closely, so I take it you expect the stalling until next year is more to do with maintaining past margins over actually improving them?

I also notice that Robert Tchenguiz 5.08% stake in FGP is 100% spread bet with voting rights it would appear.
 
F Great Eastern

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Blackpudding said:
And to add to that it's reported that Volvo B7RLE 69198 and 69202 have moved from Oldham to Aircoach, Dublin.
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That is because that 66994 has been written off in Dublin following a fire.

Since they're for airport work, you'd think they'd send 66992/3 since they are to the same layout as 66994 with two doors and previously worked car park shuttles for Aircoach, but that'd make too much sense so they've sent two vehicles without luggage racks and with one door instead.
 
Jordan Adam

Jordan Adam

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F Great Eastern said:
That is because that 66994 has been written off in Dublin following a fire.

Since they're for airport work, you'd think they'd send 66992/3 since they are to the same layout as 66994 with two doors and previously worked car park shuttles for Aircoach, but that'd make too much sense so they've sent two vehicles without luggage racks and with one door instead.
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Not really, 66992/3 have both been converted to trainers. So it would make no sense to convert 66992/3 back to passenger carrying vehicles and then waste money converting another two vehicles to trainers.
 
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overthewater

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Good news at last.

https://www.firstgroup.com/norfolk-suffolk/news-and-service-updates/excel-new-standard-travel-comfort-arriving-spring-2020

We’re so excited to announce the arrival of a brand-new fleet of high-specification double deck buses for excel, due to take to the road in early Spring 2020
Built as a unique combination of a Scania Euro VI diesel chassis and stylish, modern bodywork from Alexander Dennis, we’ve worked with some of the bus industry’s leading designers, suppliers and manufacturers over the last two years to bring you a bus designed and built especially for excel.

The Scania chassis, with its’ 9-litre engine, is designed to deliver outstanding performance, reliability, fuel economy and safety on longer and more demanding routes, whilst meeting the highest current industry emissions standards.

Build quality, ergonomics and style are all integral to the Alexander Dennis bodywork, which also incorporates some of the best comfort and safety features available on buses today.

As well as listening to the great feedback we’ve had from passengers, drivers and stakeholders all along the excel route, our research and development for these vehicles has taken us far and wide across the UK, with the aim of bringing together a whole host of features, some already established and some brand new, that will allow us to bring you a new standard in interurban bus travel.

Whilst we’re going to keep some of these under wraps for a little while longer, we can reveal that they will include:

  • Comfy, coach-style seating on both decks – specially shaped to provide the ultimate in comfort and trimmed in real leather to an exclusive design
  • USB charging at all seats
  • Seat back phone docks with wireless charging built-in – ideal for catching up on the latest box-set on your journey
  • Free wifi
  • ‘Bus Stopping’ buttons at all seats
…and much, much more.

So bookmark this page, and keep checking back for updates over the coming weeks as we reveal more about what to expect from our new look for excel

FEC-XL-Teaser01 12-19v2.png
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Trainfan061193

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On LTT, it was mentioned that First are looking at a sale of whole of it’s UK bus business or in 3 or 4 regional parts by the middle of next year. There’s also rumours of NX acquiring First Cymru’s Bridgend depot and Stagecoach purchasing Maesteg and Bridgend. I also saw a comment on Flickr that First are hoping to sell off Potteries by May. I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see as anything could happen.
 
TheGrandWazoo

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Trainfan061193 said:
On LTT, it was mentioned that First are looking at a sale of whole of it’s UK bus business or in 3 or 4 regional parts by the middle of next year. There’s also rumours of NX acquiring First Cymru’s Bridgend depot and Stagecoach purchasing Maesteg and Bridgend. I also saw a comment on Flickr that First are hoping to sell off Potteries by May. I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see as anything could happen.
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I would exercise extreme caution in these rumours, especially stuff on flickr and FaceAche. NatEx buying some small depot in Wales in unlikely, nor flogging off the odd depot here and there anyway. To get the disposals done in six months, you're looking a much bigger disposals like one sale or 3/4 regional clusters.

Once sold (and to whom) might then inform the nature of any subsequent smaller sales.
 
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Trainfan061193

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TheGrandWazoo said:
I would exercise extreme caution in these rumours, especially stuff on flickr and FaceAche. NatEx buying some small depot in Wales in unlikely, nor flogging off the odd depot here and there anyway. To get the disposals done in six months, you're looking a much bigger disposals like one sale or 3/4 regional clusters.

Once sold (and to whom) might then inform the nature of any subsequent smaller sales.
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I don’t take to rumours very lightly myself as we don’t know what the true outcome will be. As you say it’s very unlikely they will sell off the odd depot here and there. The most likely outcome is they will either do one sale or sell off big chunks in 3/4 regions.
 
TheGrandWazoo

TheGrandWazoo

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richw said:
the last release talked about adding value to make the sale or seperation more attractive
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That's what they are clearly doing (and sadly, it's a return to the Moir inspired rush to cut services to increase short term margins). Whilst the odd OpCo hasn't cut routes/frequencies, there are a lot that are doing just that. Also, it's a way of clearing out the time expired fleet with reduced capital investment AND also some moving around of fleet to meet the various Clean Air and Low Emissions Zones.

That said, First West of England culled their Bristol to Newport route and Stagecoach took it on....only to discover that it is a bit of a dud, so some of the cuts (whilst saddening) are perhaps overdue. However, most are probably retrograde steps IMHO.

DragonEast is correct that Excel is a commercial operation. However, few of the new buses arriving are receiving grants per se to fund fleet replacement. In terms of the new Bristol fleet, the grants are to fund the difference between new Euro VI diesels and the CNG versions so First would still be spending vehicles on new fleet. Similarly, the new Star fleet for Portsmouth doesn't have a council grant but is bound by a partnership agreement in return for bus priority measures etc, being the third or fourth new fleet on that basis?
 
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Volvodart

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TheGrandWazoo said:
I would exercise extreme caution in these rumours, especially stuff on flickr and FaceAche. NatEx buying some small depot in Wales in unlikely, nor flogging off the odd depot here and there anyway. To get the disposals done in six months, you're looking a much bigger disposals like one sale or 3/4 regional clusters.

Once sold (and to whom) might then inform the nature of any subsequent smaller sales.
Click to expand...

The timescale quoted would be unrealistic, as the financial year's results will not be known until May 2020.
 
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DragonEast

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TheGrandWazoo said:
That's what they are clearly doing (and sadly, it's a return to the Moir inspired rush to cut services to increase short term margins). Whilst the odd OpCo hasn't cut routes/frequencies, there are a lot that are doing just that. Also, it's a way of clearing out the time expired fleet with reduced capital investment AND also some moving around of fleet to meet the various Clean Air and Low Emissions Zones.

That said, First West of England culled their Bristol to Newport route and Stagecoach took it on....only to discover that it is a bit of a dud, so some of the cuts (whilst saddening) are perhaps overdue. However, most are probably retrograde steps IMHO.

DragonEast is correct that Excel is a commercial operation. However, few of the new buses arriving are receiving grants per se to fund fleet replacement. In terms of the new Bristol fleet, the grants are to fund the difference between new Euro VI diesels and the CNG versions so First would still be spending vehicles on new fleet. Similarly, the new Star fleet for Portsmouth doesn't have a council grant but is bound by a partnership agreement in return for bus priority measures etc, being the third or fourth new fleet on that basis?
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Yep. Locally in Essex it looks like a return to the good 'ole "let's try anything" approach of the Moir years, so it's chopping routes; or swopping them around and merging them with little apparent rhyme or reason. It'll confuse the passengers, and once congestion kicks in probably make things less reliable too. A good start. The good news is that the competition, ready and waiting for some time, are picking dropped services up as quickly as they did a decade ago, and hopefully making the same sort of success of them as they did a decade ago. First still seem to struggle more with fleet and congestion. Signs perhaps that they're still too big for their boots.
Their logic of leaving Clacton and increasing Clacton services at the same time always bewildered some of us. Whether now abandoning the new and enhanced Clacton services they just introduced (against the predictions of failure looking at the market: a mostly stable and older population in an area of planning restraint); and then enhancing the residual services to partially compensate, suffer the same fate in the face of the new replacement services from the competition, remains to be seen. Hopefully.

Admittedly, the underlying problems are out of their control: the amount of narrow and low bridges on the extensive rail network constrain (rule out) the ability to use the optimum vehicles to meet demand, which I suspect is a basic tenet of an efficient network. Historically this was not the case with lower height deckers, but it now affects the rest of the local network too with the overall shortage of deckers. I appreciate that the local First is a one-off and national policy simply can't accommodate a one-off. But it means the local network needs to be more adaptable, and that is the area in which First appear to have been very slow and piecemeal compared to their neighbours. And whist data is very helpful in showing WHAT should be changed, I am not sure that it is an entire substitute for judgement when it comes what to HOW? Making such changes against a national policy of restraint too is extra hard. First seem to have made growng the network previously a substitute rather than a supplement to making it more efficient.

Sure, I understand that whether it works or not isn't the main point. They need to be seen to be doing SOMETHING. I'm just not sure that attitude is the recipe for a successful business.

I suspect it's a job half done and there'll be more of the same to add to the imminent shrinking of the supplementary council funded services that First have been collecting like flies over the last few years. In neignbouring Herts and Suffolk the commercial operators have stepped in. Not much chance of that with First Essex, I presume. Both nationally and locally with FExit, I still incline to the view that still they need something to show they are serious to the market, and not just their usual playing about at the margins.

Not least is the irony that First find themselves with a big new depot for shrinking services, whilst Go Ahead are growing services and running out of depot space. But I always thought the idea was that the depot met the needs of the services and not the other way around?
 
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