The 2019 General Election Result and Aftermath

AlterEgo said:

Yes - part of the problem on the doorsteps was not just that Corbyn was toxic, but also that the policies proposed didn't seem like they came from a party serious about actually governing.

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No indeed. More a case of what you could have had if you’d written your own positive life affirming novel...

adrock1976 said:

1979 - Mainly Labour, got Conservatives
1983 - Mainly Labour, got Conservatives
1987 - Mainly Labour, got Conservatives
1992 - Mainly Labour, got Conservatives (only just, due to a late swing in the day to the Conservatives)
1997 - Mainly Labour, got New Labour (which were not new, and were most certainly not Labour)
2001 - Mainly Labour, got New Labour (which were not new, and were most certainly not Labour)
2005 - Mainly Labour, got New Labour (which were not new, and were most certainly not Labour)
2010 - Mainly Labour (with the only constituency changing hands was mine of Glasgow North East from Speaker to Labour), got Conservative-Lib Dem coalition

2015 - Overwhelmingly SNP (with 56 out of the 59 constituencies, with the remaining 3 being 1 each to Labour, Conservative, and Lib Dem), got Conservatives (only just, due to errors in the polling methods)
2017 - Mainly SNP (reduced to 41 constituencies), got Conservatives with some support from DUP
2019 - Mainly SNP (48 out of 59 constituencies), got Conservatives

As can be seen above, no matter what the voting pattern of Scotland is at General Elections, since 1979, Scotland has not had the government it has voted for.

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Ah right, so New Labour were stealthy about being different to "Pure" Labour. If I recall they purposely withheld their manifesto from Scotland and Tony Blair was banned on the TV there, so the Scottish people were conned!

Interestingly you don't attempt to discern the different brands of Conservatism.

bramling said:

The problem with inheritance tax is the massive increase in property prices, particularly in the London and south-east area, over the last decade or two. The inheritance tax thresholds simply haven’t kept up with this inflation. Another thing to blame on the EU, through rising population as a result of free movement.

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Interestingly the statistics do indicate there might be some truth in this , 51% of inheritance tax receipts are from estates in the south east .Although I retierate what I previously said which is that less than 5% of deaths result in any inheritance tax being paid , so even in the SE or London its still a minority .

Interesting theory on the population growth particularly in the SE being able to be blamed on the EU and freedom of movement . Cursory examination of some figures suggests that migrants in London are split roughly down the middle between EU and non EU , and from what reading I have done on the actual issue of property prices in London it seems to be non EU migrant groups and their investment in the new build property market that is driving up property prices . Looking at the origins of those investors the vast majority are from south east Asia or the middle east . This issue is something that the government have already tried to control with Mays government announcing a higher stamp duty rate for foreign buyers .

Earlier today I was driving through Coalville in Leicestershire which is in the North West Leicestershire Constituency.

I stopped for some diesel at Morrisons there and in doing so I saw first hand why Labour lost the election. North West Leicestershire by the way is a constituency that had previously voted Labour in the Blair years and is the kind of constituency Labour needs to win if they want to be back in government, it is currently Conservative.

The first thing to remember is the area voted leave 61% to 39% so Labour's policy on Brexit would only appeal to 39% of the vote which in the Midlands is not enough to win the seat as almost all constituencies in the Midlands are a two horse race between Labour and the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have no real presence here. Secondly the constituency is 97.5% White British meaning that things like the "Faith and Race Manifesto" again were meaningless here and would only appeal to people in areas that would probably vote Labour anyway.

Third and often overlooked is to North West Leicestershire the railway policies were entirely meaningless. There is no railway station there meaning train travel by residents is very low. Labour could promise to nationalise the railways (they wouldn't of course) and offer free rail travel to everyone but it would be meaningless if there is no station. For many years the Leicester to Burton line has been earmarked for reopening and many politicians have expressed a view that they would "like to see it reopened" but after 25 years we are no closer to it and locals have begun to realise it's not going to reopen anytime soon and that politicians aren't honest about it. Bus travel is hit and miss and is not very common particularly by people between the ages of 25 and 60. The area is very car dependent and the Conservative Party has generally been more favorable to areas with high car usage by freezing fuel duty. Labour's green policy sounds great on paper but it would mean massive rises in fuel duty to try and get people out of their cars. Also the area contains East Midlands Airport which again Labour is against flying.

For Labour to win power they need to get out of the Greater London Bubble which is safe Labour in any case and go to the East Midlands and try and win votes there. This is unlikely to happen as Labour hates the East Midlands.

EM2 said:

Boris Johnson to redraw electoral map to consolidate majority
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...p-consolidate-majority/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

The rest of the article is paywalled.

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Let the gerrymandering begin. Based on the coalition boundary changes, my local authority ward would be half in one new constituency which was up to 2010/2019 (depending on the half a constituency the new one is coming out of) was a Labour stronghold, and one which is staunch Tory. No prizes for guessing where my half of the ward a traditional Labour one for local elections, would end up in.

option said:

Developer payments are one-off payments, they don't fund the ongoing costs of providing additional school places.
Education funding is also not under the control of local authorities, the funds go directly to schools.
So, even if you've predicted a need for extra school places in a location due to development, & the developer is willing to give some funds towards school infrastructure, there may be no funds made available for the staffing required.


Community Infrastructure Levy payments in Birmingham for 2017/18 was ~£2.2m
Council budget for then was ~£900m.

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The funding of the places for schools comes from government, they only pay for the pupils there are and so councils only fund the building to provide new school places which they can be sure to fill.

Add to this the need to provide free school travel for children being told that they have to attend a school which is more than 2 or 3 miles away (2 miles is for this under 8) and Councils are more inclined to provide the school places in larger settlements where they are less likely to have to pay to transport the children.

However such travel is only provided if you didn't opt for that school and are being sent to a school which isn't your local school which you did apply for.

Not knowing the area in question, it could be that the children from the village could therefore be entitled to free school transport to get to the non local school. It's worth highlighting this within the village if the travel distance is likely to be relevent.

43066 said:

The difference is as follows.

I could go out tonight and buy a lottery ticket for a couple of quid, pay tax only on the purchase price, and then pocket £100m+ tax free.

Yet I could work hard all my life, pay lots of tax on my earnings, and acquire assets that I then wish to leave to my children. They would then suffer a 40% tax hit on the value of my estate.

Hard work and thrift is what society should be encouraging. That should be reflected through the taxation system.

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Cannot agree more. By taxing a lottery ticket, the government taxes ordinary people trying to make money. Taxing large (say over £1m) lottery earnings taxes people who have made money. In absolute terms, if I win £100m and pay 25% tax, I still pocket £75m. However, if I am on a minimum wage, zero-hours contract, the 12% on my £2 lottery ticket is going to be worth a lot more.

mpthomson said:

A different leader (ie one that was electable) wouldn’t have had most of those economically illiterate policies in their manifesto....

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Corbyn could well have just issued a decree giving the government (say) a 0.1% stake in a company, but where the government has 51% of the voting rights or even 75.1%. Corbyn stood transparently on delivering nationalisation, if he won a majority of the vote, he would have a mandate to do so. If anything, I doubt it's going to happen because I don't see him using underhand tricks to 'stymie parliament'.

radamfi said:

The UK is not a democracy.

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bussnapperwm said:

Let the gerrymandering begin. Based on the coalition boundary changes, my local authority ward would be half in one new constituency which was up to 2010/2019 (depending on the half a constituency the new one is coming out of) was a Labour stronghold, and one which is staunch Tory. No prizes for guessing where my half of the ward a traditional Labour one for local elections, would end up in.

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It has a system which already favours the party with the most marginal advantage in terms of votes at the expense of other parties. In other words, a supermajority is required to overturn an existing government. 43.6% of the vote takes 56% of seats, and considering that we have a system whereby very little needs a supermajority in parliament, Johnson may as well do whatever he likes.. To 'gerrymander' and turn more red seats blue seems to be consolidating the UK Britain England's status as a false democracy and not a genuine one. I wonder how the other two main parties will react to this once the news filters through the system.

If free movement is to blame for the increase in property prices, then why has property crashed in Scotland, the north and especially Northern Ireland? They enjoy the same free movement as southerners. Why don't you blame speculators and rich foreign buyers instead?

I suspect the Tories will steamroller through some pretty awful stuff now. No need to stop the latent evil leaching through.

Personally I hold Corbyn, Bastani, Sarkar and the rest of those Momentum idiots equally culpable.

Brexit is now firmly the Tories baby, they can’t blame anyone else for the outcome now.

Not that their party political mouthpiece the BBC won’t try...

But, it’s certainly “the will of the people,” now. Can’t argue with that anymore.

There will be a certain schadenfreude in watching all those NE manufacturing workers and hypertensive baby boomers in dying seaside towns reaping what they have sown.

Raul_Duke said:

There will be a certain schadenfreude in watching all those NE manufacturing workers and hypertensive baby boomers in dying seaside towns reaping what they have sown.

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I think the point is that they had nothing to lose. I am born and bred in a "dying seaside town" and still live within a stones throw of it. The lack of any interest/support from successive governments is truly appalling. All Labour ever promise is more nurses and better benefits. Brown/Blair did absolutely nothing to support small/local businesses, they provided no inward investment to encourage businesses to relocate here or to help save what little local business/tourist attractions remained. That won't be forgotten. In the last GE, the "local" Labour candidate had nothing at all to promise the locals besides more nurses and more benefits - she offered nothing at all to help salvage the tourist industry nor help bring any new employment to the town. Along with the run town ex-industrial northern towns, the run down seaside towns NEED support - they don't just want more benefits, people WANT to work in proper jobs, they don't want to have to relocate to London to get a job.

It's exactly why Brexit was so popular - for lots of people, it wasn't about leaving the EU, it was more about a kick up the bum to the London centric metropolitan elite and a clear message that they need to start looking after the regions, not just Londoners. And it's worked. As born out last week, another kick up the bum to the London Elite by stripping Labour of their traditional Labour heartlands. The Northerners in run down towns finally feel that they have a say and that they matter. And long may it continue. The Tories know they need to keep the ex-Labour constituencies if they want to win next time. Labour know they need to regain them if they want to win next time. Both will have to start taking the regions seriously and "put up or shut up". It can only be a win-win situation for Labour's lost Northern heartlands.

Bletchleyite said:

Light bulbs are a different situation because tungsten bulbs in summer are inefficient because they chuck out a load of unnecessary heat as well as the light. There's also further benefit of cool-running lighting - a reduced fire risk.

In winter, the argument is poorer, because the heat is desirable and if it isn't chucked out by the bulbs it's chucked out by your gas boiler instead.

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Agree with you about summer. I'm not sure the argument is poorer in winter though. Although the heat is often needed, the heat generated by light bulbs tends to be up near the ceiling. Given that warm air rises anyway, having a bit of extra heat pumped out so high up is still largely going to be wasted in terms of making people more comfortable.

Bletchleyite said:

Kettles (or any other form of electric heating) are a silly argument because all of it is basically 100% (or near it) efficient - near enough all the electricity is converted to heat, barring a slight red glow and possibly an LED signifying that the power is on.

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Actually for something like a toaster, it probably makes some sense - because so much of the heat generated by a toaster goes into warming the toaster rather than the toast. If (very plausibly) lower power requirements helped persuade manufacturers to improve toaster design so that more of the heat goes into heating the toast, then there would be some energy saving. I kinda agree that with kettles, it's harder to see the benefit, since water has a very high heat capacity so I would expect most of the kettle's energy does to into heating the water. You could probably get a good saving though by redesigning kettles to encourage people to put only the amount of water they actually need in them. And there could be some marginal savings from better insulation - so still some possibility.

underbank said:

I think the point is that they had nothing to lose. I am born and bred in a "dying seaside town" and still live within a stones throw of it. The lack of any interest/support from successive governments is truly appalling. All Labour ever promise is more nurses and better benefits. Brown/Blair did absolutely nothing to support small/local businesses, they provided no inward investment to encourage businesses to relocate here or to help save what little local business/tourist attractions remained. That won't be forgotten. In the last GE, the "local" Labour candidate had nothing at all to promise the locals besides more nurses and more benefits - she offered nothing at all to help salvage the tourist industry nor help bring any new employment to the town. Along with the run town ex-industrial northern towns, the run down seaside towns NEED support - they don't just want more benefits, people WANT to work in proper jobs, they don't want to have to relocate to London to get a job.

It's exactly why Brexit was so popular - for lots of people, it wasn't about leaving the EU, it was more about a kick up the bum to the London centric metropolitan elite and a clear message that they need to start looking after the regions, not just Londoners. And it's worked. As born out last week, another kick up the bum to the London Elite

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underbank said:

The Northerners in run down towns finally feel that they have a say and that they matter.

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Yeah, you really showed that London elite by ruining your own life while making pretty much FA difference to theirs.....

I was born in, and have lived all my life in a post industrial northern town that was decimated by Thatcher in the 80’s. I’m at least savvy enough to know that the Tory party actively despises me, my town and my job.

I am an anathema to them.

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

43066 said:

Agreed! If the EU had been less intransigent, I might have voted remain.

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Absolutely

I'm born and bred in the north but would never live there again. Northerners have sold me down the river. If I had to move to somewhere else in the UK it would have to be Scotland.

Raul_Duke said:

Yeah, you really showed that London elite by ruining your own life while making pretty much FA difference to theirs.....

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The people in that position genuinely think their life has already been ruined by the London Centricity of recent politics. As I said, they genuinely think they have nothing to lose. When people are at rock bottom, they will look for slightest glimmer of hope. Whether they're right or not is a different matter. I'm explaining why people voted as they did, not whether they were right to do so.

underbank said:

The people in that position genuinely think their life has already been ruined by the London Centricity of recent politics. As I said, they genuinely think they have nothing to lose. When people are at rock bottom, they will look for slightest glimmer of hope. Whether they're right or not is a different matter. I'm explaining why people voted as they did, not whether they were right to do so.

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Absolutely right.

I know folks who are not stupid, not racist and reached the point of saying.... I may as well vote differently cos it can't be any worse.

radamfi said:

I'm born and bred in the north but would never live there again. Northerners have sold me down the river. If I had to move to somewhere else in the UK it would have to be Scotland.

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I often take issue with your views but, from my position, in a context of genuine respectful discussion. This is a ridiculous comment however. Why not blame the slew of people in the South West who voted Brexit and returned Tories en masse since 2015?

No - they haven't sold you down the river. There was a referendum that I disagreed with, as did you. If Corbyn and McCluskey had come out unequivocally for Remain and campaigned accordingly, it may well have been that 52/48 would have been the other way. However, they didn't and the Referendum result was as it was and the majority expected their vote to be respected. You want to know who sold you down the river - try Jezza and Len.

I'm a Northerner and I'd not live back up there but for much more prosaic reasons... like the lack of job opportunities, lack of connectivity etc.

Raul_Duke said:

Yeah, you really showed that London elite by ruining your own life while making pretty much FA difference to theirs.....

I was born in, and have lived all my life in a post industrial northern town that was decimated by Thatcher in the 80’s. I’m at least savvy enough to know that the Tory party actively despises me, my town and my job.

I am an anathema to them.

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

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Perhaps but you're not getting it. People felt that Labour wasn't bothered about them. The wanted Brexit sorted obviously but there was so much more.

They didn't believe Corbyn was a credible leader. Anyone with connections with the armed forces hate him given his associations with the IRA (as opposed to working with both sides in NI). They saw his inability to manage anti-semitism as weak.

They didn't believe the manifesto and spending commitments - they were ludicrous. Free everything and your taxes won't change... It's just not credible

So do you believe the proven liar who will honour the democratic Brexit vote (that as a Remainer, I will never like but will have to accept) OR vote for the weak, incompetent, delusional fence sitter?

TheGrandWazoo said:

Why not blame the slew of people in the South West who voted Brexit and returned Tories en masse since 2015?

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Of course I blame them too, but I'm not from the SW hence they couldn't have "sold me" as I'm not one of them. I wouldn't live in the SW either.

adrock1976 said:

Again, Scotland (this may possibly apply to the former Metropolitan Counties areas as well) once again, has not had the government it has voted for, and this has been the case since 1979. I have summarised the Scotland voting patterns for each General Election since 1979 below, with which government has ended up being in power:

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On the other hand; Scotland denied the rest of the country a Conservative majority since 2010, as in 2010 and 2017 if you discount Scottish seats (and the Conservative MP(s) elected in both of those elections); then the Conservatives would have had a majority.

ainsworth74 said:

@bramling and @43066 I hope you're both ready to hold your party to account for what we were promised:

• 50,000 nurses
• 100,000 new homes per year
• 40 new hospitals
• Free trade deal with Europe by end of 2020
• etc, etc

You got everything you wanted so now I hope you're ready to own this come what may. If the exit poll is accurate there are no excuses anymore. You can't blame "remoaners" getting in the way with an "obstructionist" Parliament and "biased" Commons Speaker.

Your party is completely in charge to do what they like so it's on you and them what happens for the next five years.

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43066 said:

I think this is an excellent result.

We need to move on from the utter morass of the last few years. We need to move beyond the arguing and get a strong government into power who can deliver, for once.

I haven't got everything I wanted. BoJo isn’t my first choice, but he will hopefully do the business.

Happy to own all of it - I just hope the exit poll is correct - and have just purchased a bottle of champagne (to keep on ice) to that effect - it would be so cruel if it were to be wrong and snatched away from us!

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option said:

What in the past 4 years has prevented the Tories from doing these ideas already?

What has changed so that it is only now that there can be an increase in nurses being trained?
What has changed so that it is only now that there can be extra house building?
etc etc etc

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43066 said:

Nothing has changed. They’ve thrown a few bones to the electorate in order to get elected. That’s just standard electioneering.

It seems to have worked pretty well, to be fair.

By far the most appetising bone the Tories threw, of course, was not being the opposition.

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So we've gone from 'the last government couldn't get anything done' to 'this one will get stuff done' to 'nothing has changed'

So if nothing has changed, then this government won't do anything about nurse numbers, or new homes, or anything else that they mentioned.

For them to do something must mean that something has changed!


Even with a minority government, they could have got stuff done. If they'd proposed increasing funding for nurse training, as an example, it would have passed.
If they'd proposed more infrastructure investment, it would have passed.
Lots of the things they have been saying they will do would have passed anyway with cross-party support.

So why didn't they do anything?

The thing I find annoying is people have had 9 years of tory hardship and mismanagement yet they vote the same charlatans back in. Let's see who they try to pin their failings on.
Maybe they'll try to blame Labour economy mismanagement again, despite borrowing rising year on year yet austerity getting worse (no I don't believe Boris' election promises, I don't believe pathological liars).

underbank said:

I think the point is that they had nothing to lose. I am born and bred in a "dying seaside town" and still live within a stones throw of it. The lack of any interest/support from successive governments is truly appalling. All Labour ever promise is more nurses and better benefits. Brown/Blair did absolutely nothing to support small/local businesses, they provided no inward investment to encourage businesses to relocate here or to help save what little local business/tourist attractions remained. That won't be forgotten. In the last GE, the "local" Labour candidate had nothing at all to promise the locals besides more nurses and more benefits - she offered nothing at all to help salvage the tourist industry nor help bring any new employment to the town. Along with the run town ex-industrial northern towns, the run down seaside towns NEED support - they don't just want more benefits, people WANT to work in proper jobs, they don't want to have to relocate to London to get a job.

It's exactly why Brexit was so popular - for lots of people, it wasn't about leaving the EU, it was more about a kick up the bum to the London centric metropolitan elite and a clear message that they need to start looking after the regions, not just Londoners. And it's worked. As born out last week, another kick up the bum to the London Elite by stripping Labour of their traditional Labour heartlands. The Northerners in run down towns finally feel that they have a say and that they matter. And long may it continue. The Tories know they need to keep the ex-Labour constituencies if they want to win next time. Labour know they need to regain them if they want to win next time. Both will have to start taking the regions seriously and "put up or shut up". It can only be a win-win situation for Labour's lost Northern heartlands.

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You do know that the majority of that stuff is the remit of local authorities?
Economic development is a local authority or combined authority responsibility. Tourism promotion is a local authority responsibility.

What businesses should move to these places, & what happens to the places they move from?
What support did you want for existing local businesses? Local authorities don't control business rates, or property rents.
What tourism?

option said:

You do know that the majority of that stuff is the remit of local authorities?
Economic development is a local authority or combined authority responsibility. Tourism promotion is a local authority responsibility.

What businesses should move to these places, & what happens to the places they move from?
What support did you want for existing local businesses? Local authorities don't control business rates, or property rents.
What tourism?

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And austerity since 2010 has cut local authority funding more than nearly everything else, along with capping of council tax. So many of them can do virtually nothing beyond their statutory duties in things such as social care. The Cameron government gave a certain amount of autonomy, but nowhere near reversing the cuts in power and funding going back to at least 1979, and plenty of places have missed out even on that.

radamfi said:

Of course I blame them too, but I'm not from the SW hence they couldn't have "sold me" as I'm not one of them. I wouldn't live in the SW either.

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I'm from the North. I voted Remain. I wish more people had. They haven't sold me down the river. This is the Laura Pidcock-esque.

No-one sold you down the river except the Labour Party leadership (and I use the word Leader advisedly) in 2016. It's them you should blame NOT the people who were asked a question, answered it and have then wondered why it wasn't enacted.

Very happy with the result, but disappointed free movement is continuing for at least another year.

Do I like the Tories? Hell no, but I figured I had more to gain from Brexit than I had to lose from a Tory government.

TheGrandWazoo said:

I'm from the North. I voted Remain. I wish more people had. They haven't sold me down the river. This is the Laura Pidcock-esque.

No-one sold you down the river except the Labour Party leadership (and I use the word Leader advisedly) in 2016. It's them you should blame NOT the people who were asked a question, answered it and have then wondered why it wasn't enacted.

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The people of the north voted en masse for Brexit and that is unforgivable. They could have put it right by not voting Tory last week.

muz379 said:

And in a couple of decades the thresholds will be higher than that , and unless things change from their current course the thresholds will still be above the average house price .

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I subsequently amended that to state I meant that threshold in inflation adjusted times. Those are modest property prices in London.

muz379 said:

Less than 5% of deaths even result in any inheritance tax being due . If you manage to make it into the top 5% I am sure your children wont miss 40% of anything above what the threshold is at the time .

I mean after-all their own life prospects are likely to be understandably fairly decent as well .

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Totally disagree - as I say they are modest values in London.

radamfi said:

The people of the north voted en masse for Brexit and that is unforgivable. They could have put it right by not voting Tory last week.

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Good for them.

What’s unforgivable is that the people were asked a question, promised their answer would be implemented, and are still waiting for that 3.5 years on.

Comstock said:

Very happy with the result, but disappointed free movement is continuing for at least another year.

Do I like the Tories? Hell no, but I figured I had more to gain from Brexit than I had to lose from a Tory government.

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What is it you feel you will gain from Brexit?

radamfi said:

The people of the north voted en masse for Brexit and that is unforgivable. They could have put it right by not voting Tory last week.

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Perhaps we knew what we were doing on both occasions. Like 43066 says, it's been 3.5 years!!

For me the only way back for Labour is to accept Brexit, and there are some signs they might do so.

43066 said:

Good for them.

What’s unforgivable is that the people were asked a question, promised their answer would be implemented, and are still waiting for that 3.5 years on.

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Perhaps the Tories shouldn't have promised something that is incredibly difficult to implement.

It's amazing that the Tories can screw something up so badly, then blame other people, and people will still vote for them en-masse.