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The 2019 General Election Result and Aftermath

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Kite159

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This meme is currently going around amongst various Labour social media groups purportedly demonstrating how Labour does really well under very left wing leadership.

I don't think I need to point out the obvious flaws in the choice of statistics in it :D

If people unquestioningly believe this stuff, then I guess Boris is safely PM for the next 20 years or so ;-(

View attachment 71726

But they won the argument ;)

How many more potential voters are there today compared to 2005?
 
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furnessvale

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But they won the argument ;)

How many more potential voters are there today compared to 2005?
Above which, a drop of more than 20% from 2017 to 2019, a time during which the harder left wing policies were developed, is a measure of success?
 

EM2

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So the broken promises begin...
https://news.sky.com/story/withdraw...in-boris-johnsons-updated-brexit-law-11890941
...the government will no longer need parliament to approve its negotiating mandate or future relationship treaty.

It also won’t need to issue reports every three months on the progress of talks.

A commitment for the UK to strike a deal with the EU so child refugees can be reunited with their family in the UK has also been scrapped.

And the section on workers’ rights, which was added specially to win over Labour MPs in Brexit-voting constituencies, has been removed.
 

TrafficEng

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And how much credibility did BNP get? Where are the BNP now?

Where they are now is irrelevant, in the same way the electoral failure of the Liberal party today is not relevant to an assessment of their historic influence and significance. How much credibility the BNP had is likely to be disputed, but Barnbrook's election to the Assembly led to him getting an invite to Buckingham Palace and his selection of Nick Griffin (the then party leader) as his 'plus one' caused exactly the kind of outrage from the political establishment that gave the oxygen of publicity to their cause. Whether or not that was a factor in Griffin (plus another) winning seats in the 2009 European Parliament election is something we could discuss further.

Because of FPTP, the Conservatives had very little choice of parties to work with. In countries with PR you are more likely to get a rainbow of parties elected where you are more likely to find a coalition partner that you can work with. For example, it is common in the Netherlands and Germany to have "grand coalitions" of the major centre-left and centre-right parties.

However you slice the salami, the risk always remains that a government can only be formed and maintained by the inclusion of parties that some people believe shouldn't be allowed to stand for office.

There is obviously dissatisfaction with the FPTP system and there are many people like me who crave a fairer system. Are there many voters who lament having a PR system and wish they had the British or American system? Probably not as many. If PR is unsuitable for the UK parliament, why is it fine for the Scottish Parliament and for the Welsh and London Assemblies?
...and...
But how does that explain the appropriateness or otherwise of the voting systems? If FPTP is good enough for the UK Parliament, why wasn't it imposed on Scotland and Wales? It was the UK Parliament that decided the voting system. Also, why did Scotland abandon FPTP for local elections if it is OK for local elections in England and Wales?

You might want to look at the details more closely and note that the majority of members of all three of those bodies are in fact elected by FPTP. PR is only used for 'top up' seats.

If FPTP is such a terrible system for electing someone to act as a representative of an individual constituency then why did the creators of these three bodies perpetuate it?
 

Domh245

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However you slice the salami, the risk always remains that a government can only be formed and maintained by the inclusion of parties that some people believe shouldn't be allowed to stand for office.

If they've been voted for in high enough numbers that they have seats and are being called on to form part of a coalition, then so be it. It's not all that different to today where some people believe that some parties (or policies) shouldn't be allowed to stand. BXP/UKIP would have been one of the main beneficiaries of a PR system and as much as I disagree with their policies, the fact that they had as many votes as they did and nothing to show for it is outrageous.

Of course, it's also worth considering that if elections were run on PR, parties would change their tune and it wouldn't be as simple as assuming that everything we know today carries forward - I think it's likely that the two major parties would split into different groups, Labour could conceivably become a Corbynist party and a Blairite party and the conservatives split with moderates (many of whom stood down at the last election) in one party and the more Eurosceptic members in another. PR doesn't require broad-church parties.
 

TrafficEng

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To me that's democracy. It's probably less dangerous for these more extreme parties to have some representation than to be festering on the outside, where as Farage has shown a sense of martyrdom can be a powerful motivator of support. None of the far-right parties that has got any candidates elected has managed to lever itself into positions of significant power for any great length of time.

I tend to agree with your first point. I believe attempts to marginalise and demonise voters who had concerns about the volume of immigration (as exemplified by Brown's "bigoted woman") have directly led us to where we are today.

On your latter point, I would agree, with the caveat that the effect is not limited to the far-right. The system we have has the effect of limiting the influence of politics at the margins, without denying them the ability to represent and participate.

But that happened under FPTP!

Well yes. That's why I used the word "generally" rather than making a claim in absolute terms. The circumstances in 2017 (and 2010) were non-typical. It is unsurprising the result of those elections were also non-typical.
According to other calculations, if PR had been used the Tories would not have had a majority even with the support of the Brexit party. Under FPTP the Tories won a majority anyway with a minority of the vote, and are effectively implementing the policies of the Brexit party.

Debating the outcome of the 2019 election results as if they were held under (some undefined form of) PR is somewhat pointless (the Electoral Reform Society themselves note the flaw in their projections).

I don't think it is unrealistic to think that under a PR system the Labour party in its current form would not exist. As some point in the last three years (if not before) it would have fractured and we would have had some form of "Socialists for Brexit" party.

So claiming the Conservatives and Brexit party would not have been able to form a government of some kind would be flawed unless you take into account the possibility of a 'grand coalition' of Leave parties including a Socialist Leave party.

But that aside, my comments were in the context of a response to someone who believes that a different electoral system was the answer to all our ills, when the system of their preference would open the door to double-digit numbers of far-Leave MPs. This seems an odd position to adopt when their views on people voting Leave are as strong as:-
I would never have children but I would disown them if they voted Leave.
 

DynamicSpirit

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On your latter point, I would agree, with the caveat that the effect is not limited to the far-right. The system we have has the effect of limiting the influence of politics at the margins, without denying them the ability to represent and participate.

I think what happens is somewhat different. What tends to happen is that FPTP denies people with views on the margins any direct voice - since any political party they form ends up with no seats. So those people tend instead to seek a voice by - for want of a better word - infiltrating other parties. That's ultimately why you have the issue of ex-UKIP-ers and other far right people joining and ending up practically taking over the Tories, while very left wing socialists have basically done the same to the Labour Party. If we'd has a more proportional system, then UKIP would've been able to secure representation in its own right, so there would be no motivation for people with those views to join the Conservatives - which in all probability would therefore have remained a moderately right-wing free-market-based party. Similarly, those on the socialist/marxist left would have MPs representing some kind of socialist party and there would therefore have been no need - from their point of view - to take over the Labour Party.
 

edwin_m

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The system we have has the effect of limiting the influence of politics at the margins, without denying them the ability to represent and participate.
I don't think it has. UKIP and the Brexit party never got any MPs elected so have never represented or participated in Parliamentary democracy except by means of defections. But by threatening the Tories with serious damage under the FPTP system they have succeeded in getting the latest government to adopt about 90% of their main policy.
I don't think it is unrealistic to think that under a PR system the Labour party in its current form would not exist. As some point in the last three years (if not before) it would have fractured and we would have had some form of "Socialists for Brexit" party.

So claiming the Conservatives and Brexit party would not have been able to form a government of some kind would be flawed unless you take into account the possibility of a 'grand coalition' of Leave parties including a Socialist Leave party.
That's possible, the distortions introduced by FPTP make it very difficult to discern from an election result what people actually think. Although polls asking the specific question have shown that support for Remain was consistently around 52% since autumn 2017, very similar to the total votes of the parties officially supporting a referendum or revocation.
 

matacaster

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Whilst some decry the FPTP system, it does from time to time produce an outright victory and thus the winning party's full program. With proportional representation, the little guys get a better chance, but there is likely never a clear victor, so what you end up with is coalitions which don't have a real mandate as their respective members often have conflicting policies (see Italy). As a result, you get a 'least worst' ie fudge on virtually every issue and most things stay the same. Every so often, there needs to be a good look at things with a fresh eye and a refusal to accept that everything has to be the same. That needs a clear mandate and positive action from whoever is in that position. Simply not wishing to upset anybody does not represent a viable way forward.
 

Comstock

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It's possible the ship has already sailed, but I think we should probably have given AV a try.

(and I voted against on the advice of my local Labour MP :( )
 

matacaster

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In what way were any of above broken?

They were not promises made by Boris, they were in fact points very reluctantly accepted by Boris as part of a deal with the object of getting a version of Brexit through Parliament. That deal did not make it through Parliament, so concessions within it are null and void unless explicitly stated in the manifesto or confirmed in the electioneering after election called.

Its like you decide to buy an unpopular car and garage says it comes with lots of goodies in order to sell it. You then say no you want a better more popular car, they most likely wont give you the freebies you'd have got on the unpopular car. That does not mean they have broken any promises.
 

EM2

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In what way were any of above broken?

They were not promises made by Boris, they were in fact points very reluctantly accepted by Boris as part of a deal with the object of getting a version of Brexit through Parliament. That deal did not make it through Parliament, so concessions within it are null and void unless explicitly stated in the manifesto or confirmed in the electioneering after election called.
That deal did make it through Parliament to second reading. The Prime Minister withdrew it after opposition to his timetable, not the deal.
But in answer to 'In what way were any of above broken?', here's one example:
https://vote.conservatives.com/our-plan/get-brexit-done-and-unleash-britains-potential
This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
  • Take back control of our laws.
  • Take back control of our money.
  • Control our own trade policy.
  • Introduce an Australian-style points-based immigration system.
  • Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
  • Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters.
If that is the case, why has that been removed?
 

EM2

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Which rights are being removed?
We don't know yet. It is the manifesto commitment that the future relationship with the EU will raise standards on areas like workers' rights that has been removed from the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill.
Therefore a promise, or commitment if you prefer, has been broken.
 

EM2

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And Zac Goldsmith, who lost his seat last week, has been made a peer so that he can remain as Environment Minister :rolleyes:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-polit...arliaments&link_location=live-reporting-story
Downing Street has dismissed allegations of "cronyism" after ex-MP Zac Goldsmith was made a peer so he could keep his government job.

He lost his seat of Richmond Park, London, in last week's election, but will remain an environment minister.

Number 10 refused to comment on a tweet Mr Goldsmith wrote in 2012 describing the peerage system as "seedy lists of party apparatchiks".

Labour said Boris Johnson was using the Lords to appoint "jobs for mates".

Members of the government must belong to one of the Houses of Parliament.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Exactly. So not in the future relationship with the EU, as committed to in the manifesto.

To be pedantic, the commitment is "This future relationship will be one that allows us to: .... Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights" That doesn't imply it has to be in the Brexit bill - just implies that the relationship won't be such as to prevent raising standards.

It is arguably somewhat weasel-wording in the commitment because many people will probably read it casually and assume it means workers' rights will be raised, whereas that's not actually what it says. But it's not a broken promise.
 

EM2

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It's not the fact that worker's rights are under discussion that is the issue. It doesn't matter what was being removed from the Bill, it is the fact that anything is.
As the linked article states:
Our deal is the only one on the table. It is signed, sealed and ready. It puts the whole country on a path to a new free trade agreement with the EU. This will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s treaties or EU law.
If something is so important to be in the earlier Bill, and the Bill is so important that a commitment is made in the manifesto, a Bill that is signed, sealed and ready, why is it not so important now that it can be removed?
To use matacaster's analogy, the car dealer has agreed to sell me the unpopular car with all the goodies, there is an agreement signed, sealed and ready, but when I go to collect the car they say 'we've taken out the DAB radio and 6-CD multichanger, and now there's an FM radio with a regular CD player', would that not be a broken promise? You'd be a bit put out, no?
 
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Peter Kelford

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If something is so important to be in the earlier Bill, and the Bill is so important that a commitment is made in the manifesto, a Bill that is signed, sealed and ready, why is it not so important now that it can be removed?
The answer is that Boris Johnson wants to move towards his introverted dictatorship and out of the 'International Britain' democracy we live in and have done so since the the two wars.
 

TrafficEng

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That deal did make it through Parliament to second reading. The Prime Minister withdrew it after opposition to his timetable, not the deal.
But in answer to 'In what way were any of above broken?', here's one example:

To be clear, the WA 'deal' was referenced in a 'Bill'. The Bill passed second reading, it included (to placate opposition members) various statements of intent regarding the future negotiation of trade and other arrangements with the EU.

The passing of the Bill at second reading was meaningless because it was clear that opposition to the timetable motion meant that the bill would not be passed in time to enable the deal to be agreed (as negotiated) by the deadline. The amendments to the deal the opposition wanted (and still want) would have required further negotiation with the EU.

Today's vote again shows that many opposition MPs still refuse to accept both the content and the timing. Though some do appear to have a better understanding of things following the recent election.

If that is the case, why has that been removed?

Because it was only agreed (to include it in the Bill) in order to obtain the support of opposition members, who promptly refused to support the bill - other than to give it a wholly pointless second reading.

For many people, one of the principal reasons for leaving the EU is so the UK government of the day is less bound by the decisions of others in making policy and law themselves. Being bound by a concession to an opposition that no longer exists is foolish when the objective is to maximise flexibility in the negotiations with the EU.

It's not the fact that worker's rights are under discussion that is the issue. It doesn't matter what was being removed from the Bill, it is the fact that anything is.

It is a new Bill, introduced by a new Government. There is no obligation to include anything in a new Bill just because it was included in an old Bill.

To use matacaster's analogy, the car dealer has agreed to sell me the unpopular car with all the goodies, there is an agreement signed, sealed and ready, but when I go to collect the car they say 'we've taken out the DAB radio and 6-CD multichanger, and now there's an FM radio with a regular CD player', would that not be a broken promise? You'd be a bit put out, no?

It would be more like going to collect a different new car from a different dealer at some point in the future and being miffed that the radio wasn't the same spec as the one offered by the original dealer when they sold you the original car.

And Zac Goldsmith, who lost his seat last week, has been made a peer so that he can remain as Environment Minister

I suppose he could have been parachuted into a safe Conservative seat (like Workington) when it was realised he had little hope of holding the very marginal Richmond Park. But then everyone would be complaining about Conservative MPs not being brave enough to stick around to fight to keep their own seats and instead fleeing to safe ones.

I also find it difficult to comprehend why people are getting upset at the concept of experienced politicians being given peerages to allow them to retain positions in the Government. Perhaps it is because under previous governments of the late 90's and 00's it was not unknown for inexperienced politicians to be given peerages to enter into Government positions.
 

EM2

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Because it was only agreed (to include it in the Bill) in order to obtain the support of opposition members, who promptly refused to support the bill - other than to give it a wholly pointless second reading.
Which just shows that Johnson is willing to promise anything to get people onside and then renege on those promises.
It is a new Bill, introduced by a new Government. There is no obligation to include anything in a new Bill just because it was included in an old Bill.
Yet we are bound by a Referendum Bill passed under a previous Government. And a reminder that this was in the manifesto. A document which sets out what this new Government will do.
It would be more like going to collect a different new car from a different dealer at some point in the future and being miffed that the radio wasn't the same spec as the one offered by the original dealer when they sold you the original car.
No it isn't. It's the same salesman, promising me a deal and then going back on that deal when I'm ready to agree to it.
I also find it difficult to comprehend why people are getting upset at the concept of experienced politicians being given peerages to allow them to retain positions in the Government. Perhaps it is because under previous governments of the late 90's and 00's it was not unknown for inexperienced politicians to be given peerages to enter into Government positions.
Because this is a government that has been railing against 'unelected bureaucrats'.
 
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TrafficEng

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Which just shows that Johnson is willing to promise anything to get people onside and then renege on those promises.

Which fairly accurately describes all politicians everywhere.

Yet we are bound by a Referendum Bill passed under a previous Government.

No we aren't. Two Governments formed after elections (in 2017 and 2019) have promised to implement the outcome of the referendum held under that Act, which a third Government (the one of 2015) had also promised to do regardless of the result.

What we are currently bound by is the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 which, unless amended or repealed, requires our withdrawal from the EU on 'exit day'. If Parliament could organise itself to repeal or suitably amend that Act (which it passed) then the Referendum Act and subsequent Government promises have no effect.

No it isn't. It's the same salesman, promising me a deal and then going back on that deal when I'm ready to agree to it.

We have to agree to differ then, because it really doesn't work in the way your analogy suggests.

Because this is a government that has been railing against 'unelected bureaucrats'.

As have a great many voters.

However, members of the House of Lords are not 'unelected bureaucrats'.
 

AlterEgo

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The answer is that Boris Johnson wants to move towards his introverted dictatorship and out of the 'International Britain' democracy we live in and have done so since the the two wars.

Anyone who knows Johnson knows at heart he’s an internationalist. He’s no protectionist or Little Engländer.
 

Peter Kelford

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As have a great many voters.

However, members of the House of Lords are not 'unelected bureaucrats'.

The Lords are unique in our system in that they are in no hurry to get re-elected, and being in the majority individuals with long careers behind them, they can bring a unique level of time (and attention) as well as professional knowledge to a legislature that is otherwise composed of MPs trying to get re-elected or not break from the party lines. There is also a far greater contingent of independent (so-called Crossbenchers) Lords, which gives either side of the house a genuine possibility in getting their law through. Another advantage, of course, is the welcome absence of shouting, yet ironically far less political 'jargon' and more direct and comprehensible 'plain English'.
 

The Ham

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PR could work, but if it's like the EU elections where there's (say) 3 MP's for any given area then you're likely to see less political engagement in some areas.

Let's take for example an MP who covers a few villages and a small town which is then lumped in with two significant urban areas (each with their own MP) either side of this rural area. Now given that the majority of the votes are likely to come from the two significant urban areas is it likely that the parties aren't going to spend much time in the villages.

As such, although those in the urban areas may find that there's an MP which is more likely to be from a party with a view closer to theirs those in the rural area could find that the MP's are less likely to actually listen to them as then make up a smaller amount of those voting for them.

If you based it on a larger area (say at a county council sized area) then you've lost any level of a local MP.

Take for instance Hampshire, the issues for someone in Winchester is very different to someone in Farnborough or Havent or Andover.

You might be able to do it that you have some regional MP's who are voted for by the "unused" votes of those within the region.

However that would either mean shrinking the number of MP's directly voted for or by increasing the number of MP's overall.

The other to consider is how do you count those "unused" votes and what happens if one MP is voted in with 20% of the vote and another gets in with 65% of votes? Alternatively do you just count all votes, which then just strengthens the hand of those who do well anyway?

There are problems with FPTP, but before we change away from it I'd like to know how the above sorts of problems would be dealt with.

A bit like there's problems with franchises, but I'm not going to welcome Nationalisation with open arms until we know what that looks like, as (a bit like Brexit or voting for having takeaway over a roast dinner) there are so many ideas of what it would actually look like.

Without knowing what it will look like it could even result a worse system (akin to voting for a takeaway rather than a roast dinner, thinking that you'd get a Chinese takeaway, and getting a curry; which you then find is unpalatable as you didn't want anything that spicy).
 

yorksrob

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In the meantime, I see that the asset stripping/carpet bagging of Britain continues, with another major company flogged to foreign private equity.
 
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