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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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AndrewE

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I know their position, I am a member...which is how I know they are constantly fighting off helmet compulsion! And they don’t say they are irrelevant, they are very careful not to say that kind of thing.
Me too (since about 1972)... but how else do you interpret almost certainly detrimental to public health?
 
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The Ham

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I know their position, I am a member...which is how I know they are constantly fighting off helmet compulsion! And they don’t say they are irrelevant, they are very careful not to say that kind of thing.

Indeed, whilst they aren't designed to cater for a major collision there's still the potential for them to provide adequate provision to ensure survival when not wearing one wouldn't have such a favourable outcome.

The point is that the risk of such an injury is low and that the risk of inactivity is much greater and so overall there's an advantage to not wearing a helmet if it results in you cycling.

However, in the same way that I always put my seatbelt on even if it's going around a car park at low speed, there's still a case for people who are going to be cycling anyway to wear them so as to protect them if they do come off. As their risk of being involved in an accident from which a cycle helmet would project them increases the more cycling that they do. Now whilst it continues to be low, so is the chance of winning the lottery, and like the lottery the more you participate the greater your chances especially over a prolonged period.
 

AndrewE

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Indeed, whilst they aren't designed to cater for a major collision there's still the potential for them to provide adequate provision to ensure survival when not wearing one wouldn't have such a favourable outcome...
so what about almost certainly detrimental to public health?
 

Bletchleyite

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so what about almost certainly detrimental to public health?

The argument is that they (or more specifically the mandation of them) discourages cycling to some extent. It probably does. To use an example, I sometimes use a Boris bike in London on a whim, if I had to carry a helmet around for it I would probably not do so and take the Tube or a bus instead, which is removing exercise from my day.

But this is a bit niche, and if you own your own bike having a helmet kept in the same place as it is hardly difficult (and at your destination you just put the lock cable through one of the holes and leave it with the bike).

The main thing to me that discourages cycling is the lack of dedicated infrastructure like in the Netherlands. The CTC and the likes seem to like to encourage cycling on the road - but that suits assertive, young (by that I mean "not elderly", it does encompass the classic "middle aged man in lycra"), fit, mostly male cyclists riding fast road bikes. Old Granny Smith on her boneshaker (with or without a helmet) will never do that - but she will if segregated.
 

The Ham

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so what about almost certainly detrimental to public health?

Which is why in the very next paragraph I state:

The point is that the risk of such an injury is low and that the risk of inactivity is much greater and so overall there's an advantage to not wearing a helmet if it results in you cycling.

The point is that whilst to get people to do any cycling there's an advantage to not wearing a cycle helmet, for those doing a lot of cycling (say over 1,000 miles a year, or about 2.25 miles each way to get to work, potentially mostly along roads) they are certainly not at risk of inactivity but start to increase their risk of being involved in a collection. As such it can be argued that they should consider wearing a helmet as the risk of head injury is much more likely than someone who does 200 miles a year mostly along old railway lines.

It would be the same as someone arguing that they shouldn't wear a seatbelt as it's good for people's wellbeing to attend a social events, especially amongst the elderly and using case studies where those people only drive at 20mph for about a mile, whilst they drive along a lot of country lanes which are derestricted on a near daily basis.

Yes there's massive health benefits to people cycling, however once you are cycling anyway there are also advantages to wearing a helmet and so those who cycle regularly would likely to do well to consider wearing one. That is very different to "everyone should wear one" as that policy would clearly be a barrier to cycling.

However I would argue that what is a larger barrier to cycling is that there's not enough people cycling and therefore able to teach their children cycling skills. As most children are taught the mechanics of cycling at a young age, but few are taught how to cycle on roads. Even if that's showing them how to indicate and letting them practice so that they are proficient at doing so (my eldest learnt this aged 6, even though they didn't cycle on roads on their own).
 

Deerfold

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I know their position, I am a member...which is how I know they are constantly fighting off helmet compulsion! And they don’t say they are irrelevant, they are very careful not to say that kind of thing.

So which cycling activists are demanding everyone wear helmets?
 

Bletchleyite

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So which cycling activists are demanding everyone wear helmets?

Most cycling clubs and similar require it as a condition of participation in rides (edited), though that's probably neither here nor there as every serious road cyclist I know wears a helmet by choice, I can't think of one that doesn't in that context, though some of them don't when doing low speed utility cycling on paths on a hybrid (which shows a good understanding of relative risk).

The other type of campaign you get is "my kid's life was saved by a helmet", which tend to be the ones who push for legislation.
 
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Meerkat

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even amongst Cycling UK there is much debate on helmet use.
But they put off a lot of people. It’s a bulky thing to store/carry, and many people like myself just don’t like wearing hats (and I am not one of the many who would be primarily worried about messing up their hair). And needing a helmet implies danger.
I am not even sure how effective they are. I wonder if they are talked up by all the times they sustain damage when a head wouldn’t have hit the ground without the big protruding hat on.
And you rarely see them in European cities.
The biggest increase in safety for cyclists is more cyclists - safety goes up the more cyclists there are on the roads.
 

RLBH

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But they put off a lot of people. It’s a bulky thing to store/carry, and many people like myself just don’t like wearing hats (and I am not one of the many who would be primarily worried about messing up their hair). And needing a helmet implies danger.
So far as I can make out - wearing a helmet is safer than not wearing a helmet. But cycling has better health outcomes for you than not cycling, regardless of whether you wear a helmet.

All of which is a long way from HS2. How many cycle spaces will an HS2 train have? With trains 400m long, will the guard and driver be given bikes for when they need to get to the other end?

That one's only partly a joke - some container ship crews use bikes to get from one end to the other, and they're a similar length to an HS2 train...
 

Railwaysceptic

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Firstly the DfE expect children as young as 8 to be able to walk that far to school.

Secondly, and more importantly, I agree that few would be willing to walk 3 miles which is why I said walk and cycle for trips of less then 3 miles. Cycling 3 miles takes about the same as walking just over a mile whilst cycling less than a mile can often not actually save that much time compared to walking depending on security procedures at each end. As such there's an good case for giving people the option of both.
What the DfE expects is irrelevant as adults will decide for themselves which transport arrangements are most appropriate. Incidentally the DfE is well aware of the school run, school buses and normal public transport. It does not expect most children to be walking three miles to school.

No-one objects to people being given a choice as long as the cost to the public purse is within reason. What well-balanced people object to is an attempt to force people into a life style they don't want.
 

Grumpy Git

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Anyone who tries to argue that not wearing a cycle helmet is a good thing needs to give their head a wobble. Whether it should be made compulsory is another matter.
 

Deerfold

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Anyone who tries to argue that not wearing a cycle helmet is a good thing needs to give their head a wobble. Whether it should be made compulsory is another matter.

There is some research that suggests that cyclists without helmets tend to be given more room by drivers overtaking.
 

Meerkat

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Anyone who tries to argue that not wearing a cycle helmet is a good thing needs to give their head a wobble. Whether it should be made compulsory is another matter.
Pretty sure research suggested helmet wearers took more risks so weren’t necessarily safer.
 

yorkie

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Just a reminder this thread is to discuss Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

If anyone wants to discuss something unrelated to railways, please create a thread in the General Discussion section.
 

MarkyT

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Pretty sure research suggested helmet wearers took more risks so weren’t necessarily safer.
While not wishing to prolong this off topic diversion, it is certainly likely that those helmet wearers who took more risks (than they would without a helmet) would be less safe, but that doesn't demonstrate that all helmet wearers would take more risks. The precautionary principle suggests that a useful cost effective safeguard should always be promoted. If small numbers of idiots are then less careful as a result, then the consequences are down to them.
 

Meerkat

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While not wishing to prolong this off topic diversion, it is certainly likely that those helmet wearers who took more risks (than they would without a helmet) would be less safe, but that doesn't demonstrate that all helmet wearers would take more risks. The precautionary principle suggests that a useful cost effective safeguard should always be promoted. If small numbers of idiots are then less careful as a result, then the consequences are down to them.
That assumes helmets are cost effective....
 

LOL The Irony

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will the guard and driver be given bikes for when they need to get to the other end?

That one's only partly a joke - some container ship crews use bikes to get from one end to the other, and they're a similar length to an HS2 train...
You raise a good point whether personal transport will be supplied to crews.
 

R G NOW.

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The building of HS2 will generate loads of dust and c02. Have the DFT worked out about the impact on the world this will add. Anyway I think it cannot be any worse than those fires in Austrailia and the volcano that's erupted. And the devastating loss of life. This is why I oppose it. I think the government should be sorting out what we have already and finishing off projects already costed, such as electrifying Swindon to Bristol and Bromsgrove to Yate. Putting wires from Cardiff to Swansea makes sense first and not building railways which the rich would probably use.
 
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class26

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The building of HS2 will generate loads of dust and c02. Have the DFT worked out about the impact on the world this will add. Anyway I think it cannot be any worse than those fires in Austrailia and the volcano that's erupted. And the devastating loss of life. This is why I oppose it. I think the government should be sorting out what we have already and finishing off projects already costed, such as electrifying Swindon to Bristol and Bromsgrove to Yate. Putting wires from Cardiff to Swansea makes sense first and not building railways which the rich would probably use.

Was Bromsgrove to Yate costed or ever proposed ?
 

Clip

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The building of HS2 will generate loads of dust and c02. Have the DFT worked out about the impact on the world this will add. Anyway I think it cannot be any worse than those fires in Austrailia and the volcano that's erupted. And the devastating loss of life. This is why I oppose it. I think the government should be sorting out what we have already and finishing off projects already costed, such as electrifying Swindon to Bristol and Bromsgrove to Yate. Putting wires from Cardiff to Swansea makes sense first and not building railways which the rich would probably use.


You can contain dust waste if you put your mind to it
 
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R G NOW.

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Was Bromsgrove to Yate costed or ever proposed ?
I do not know yet about it, but it must be in waiting as the signalling in the area has not yet been immunised and replaced and still has an old PSB at Gloucester. It is over life expired and it seems NR are perhaps waiting to see if the DFT will cost it to be done as it would make sense. If the line to Bristol from Bristol parkway was also done it will allow xc to get new trains and replace their aging voyager fleet.

A member of staff at Gloucester says that he heard a rumor that they were thinking of doing it, due to the climate change thing.
 

jfowkes

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The building of HS2 will generate loads of dust and c02. Have the DFT worked out about the impact on the world this will add.

The building of HS2 is estimated to produce ~1.2MT CO2e (I can't find a definitive source for that but it seems to be the number that people use). The carbon benefits once in use are very hard to accurately predict, but by the estimates made to date, they will be positive to neutral. It depends on so many hard-to-predict things. How much modal shift there will be from road and air, the makeup of the grid, the service and usage patterns...

I think the government should be sorting out what we have already and finishing off projects already costed, such as electrifying Swindon to Bristol and Bromsgrove to Yate. Putting wires from Cardiff to Swansea makes sense first and not building railways which the rich would probably use.

We have the money and capability to do both HS2 and classic rail upgrades. The myth that HS2 is somehow preventing us from spending money or effort on the classic network is pernicious and wrong.
 

R G NOW.

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Will the route be electrified which I will assume?, and will the signalling be e.c.t.s. or conventional?. and lastly I assume that the trains used will be complete new ones and not class 800's. I would expect it to be a 140mph or even 200mph line speed.
 

krus_aragon

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Will the route be electrified which I will assume?, and will the signalling be e.c.t.s. or conventional?. and lastly I assume that the trains used will be complete new ones and not class 800's. I would expect it to be a 140mph or even 200mph line speed.
Definitely electric: the fastest diesel trains in the world were built nearly half a century ago, and are in the process of being withdrawn from service (the Intercity 125). Every faster train since has been electric.

ERTMS / in-cab signalling is also a given, as current UK railway standards don't allow passenger trains faster than 125mph with lineside signalling. And yes, new-build (classic compatible) rolling stock.
 

The Ham

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The building of HS2 will generate loads of dust and c02. Have the DFT worked out about the impact on the world this will add. Anyway I think it cannot be any worse than those fires in Austrailia and the volcano that's erupted. And the devastating loss of life. This is why I oppose it. I think the government should be sorting out what we have already and finishing off projects already costed, such as electrifying Swindon to Bristol and Bromsgrove to Yate. Putting wires from Cardiff to Swansea makes sense first and not building railways which the rich would probably use.

Whilst the building of HS2 and 120 years of maintenance will add about 1.5 million tonnes of CO2e, this needs to be seen in the light of 0.33 million tonnes of CO2e each year on the maintenance and operation of the strategic road network.

The thing to consider is the emission savings from the potential air travel. London to Manchester (single) is 0.08 tonnes of carbon. HS2 are suggesting that 1 million passengers will switch from air to HS2 each year.

If we assume 0.02 tonnes (due to more efficient planes over time and the revisions from using trains) that's at least 240 million tonnes of emissions saved over a 120 year period.

The reason it's at least that amount (other than I've allowed it to be 1/4 the emissions currently) is that if you go London to Glasgow the emissions rise to 0.17 tonnes per leg.

If half the fights were to Glasgow/Edinburgh rather than Manchester then it would add another 120 million tonnes (again assuming 1/4 of the current rate of emissions).

That makes the construction emissions of HS2 seem tiny in comparison.
 

JonathanH

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A story in yesterday's Mail on Sunday about scrapping HS2 south of Birmingham (which of course doesn't recognise that it would be quite difficult to do that).

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7877371/Top-adviser-Boris-Johnson-urges-axe-HS2-South.html

Transport adviser Andrew Gilligan urges Boris Johnson to axe HS2 in the South and instead use the money in the new Tory 'heartlands' of the North
  • Transport adviser lobbies new Conservative MPs to scrap HS2's southern route
  • Andrew Gilligan advocates cancellation of phase one Birmingham to London leg
  • Mr Gilligan has been closely linked to Mr Johnson since leaving the BBC in 2004
By GLEN OWEN POLITICAL EDITOR FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY
PUBLISHED: 00:42, 12 January 2020 | UPDATED: 01:16, 12 January 2020

Boris Johnson is under intense pressure from one of his most influential advisers to scrap the southern leg of HS2 and instead plough the money into rail services in the new Tory ‘heartlands’ of the North.

Transport adviser Andrew Gilligan has been lobbying the party’s newly elected MPs to support the cancellation of the phase one Birmingham to London leg of the controversial high-speed rail route.

According to one MP, Mr Gilligan suggested that phase two of HS2 – from Birmingham to Leeds and Manchester – could be spared as part of a ‘repurposing’ of the project, which is now predicted to cost up to £108 billion.

The news comes after Transport Secretary Grant Shapps received the draft findings of the Government-commissioned Oakervee review into HS2, which recommends it should go ahead despite spiralling costs.

A final decision is expected within three weeks.

The Prime Minister has privately indicated he thinks the whole project should be given the green light, but he has also run into strong opposition from chief adviser Dominic Cummings, who called the project a ‘disaster zone’.

Mr Gilligan, a former BBC journalist who in 2003 claimed on the Today programme that the Blair Government had ‘sexed up’ a report to exaggerate Saddam Hussein’s ‘weapons of mass destruction’, has been ‘sounding out’ new Tory MPs on the rail project.

One MP elected as part of Mr Johnson’s smashing of the ‘Red Wall’ of Labour seats in the Midlands and North told The Mail on Sunday: ‘Gilligan started by congratulating me and asking how I was settling in, before getting on to the real subject – did I support the HS2 project in full? Or did I think just the bits north of Birmingham should be built?’

Mr Johnson owes last month’s General Election victory to previously safe Labour seats in the North turning blue, a political shift he hopes to entrench through investment projects in those areas.

Mr Gilligan also asked the MPs if they agreed that priority should be given to the £39 billion Northern Powerhouse Rail project, previously known as HS3, a trans-Pennine route that would raise the average speed between cities including Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Bradford and Newcastle from 46mph to 140mph. A senior political supporter of HS2 said: ‘Gilligan has been on a one-man destabilisation campaign to stop HS2 since he came into No 10 last year.

‘He wants to sabotage it, and Cummings is supporting him. He is trying to get as many of the newbie Tory MPs on board as possible so he can drip poison in the PM’s ear.’

Mr Gilligan has been closely linked to Mr Johnson since leaving the BBC in 2004 after the ‘sexed-up’ dossier row and the outing of biological weapons expert Dr David Kelly as his source.

In the ensuing furore Dr Kelly took his own life, prompting the Hutton Inquiry and the resignation of the BBC’s chairman Gavyn Davies, its director-general Greg Dyke, and Mr Gilligan, who was offered a job at The Spectator by then editor Boris Johnson.

In 2013, Mr Johnson, who had become the Mayor of London, was accused of cronyism when he appointed Mr Gilligan as his Cycling Commissioner.

Last week, Lord Berkeley, the former deputy chairman of the panel that produced the HS2 review, dissented from the report, saying the £108 billion cost would generate just 60p of value for every pound spent.

Meanwhile, Mr Shapps is due to make a decision by the end of the month on whether troubled rail operator Northern will be taken into public ownership. The company has the finances to continue only ‘for a number of months’.

A Government spokesman said it had commissioned the Oakervee review into HS2 to ‘provide advice on whether and how to proceed, with an independent panel representing a range of viewpoints.

The Prime Minister will consider the review as part of his decision’.

A senior source said of Mr Gilligan: ‘Advisers to the Prime Minister work closely with MPs on a huge range of priorities. We are already looking at ways we can level up infrastructure and transport, particularly in the North.’
 
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