• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Status
Not open for further replies.

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,544
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Well, if I had bet a large sum of money on the pound tanking in the near future, I would have an excellent reason for wanting a no-deal Brexit. Of course I'd be an utterly appalling sociopath for wanting to enrich myself at the expense of an entire nation, but then again if I'm a sociopath that probably won't bother me.

Short selling the Pound and then manipulating it through major sociopolitical change is a fairly complex and involved way of achieving something you can almost as easily achieve by short-selling a failing large business, though.

(Personally I think short-selling is evil and needs to be banned - betting on failure is not how things should work - in the stock market one should bet on and invest in success)
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Grumpy Git

On Moderation
Joined
13 Oct 2019
Messages
2,126
Location
Liverpool
Those that preach that we have been blessed by not joining the Euro fail to tell anyone uninformed that the Great British Pound is so good, it's worth 28% less than the Euro from when it was created.
 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,793
Location
Nottingham
Some TOCs have taken advantage of the futures market by hedging their diesel purchases, effectively agreeing to buy their future fuel at a fixed price. Although they'll end up paying more on average, the predictability means they can build that figure into their finances with someone else taking the hit if prices go up (and the benefit if they go down).

One possible solution is to put a very small percentage tax on financial transactions, which wouldn't much affect those who are using them to achieve benefits in the "real" economy but would make it less profitable to trade the very large amounts that are usually needed to make a profit on speculation. Many EU countries are in favour of this but the UK is opposed due to the effect on the City, much of which is just pushing money around to nobody else's benefit.

One consequence of Brexit could be that the EU introduces taxes of this type on transactions in London on behalf of the EU countries, which suffer from the speculation but don't get any of the profit. The UK would obviously not do the same for domestic transactions, so we would continue to be damaged by the speculation but get less from taxation of City profits.
 

Grumpy Git

On Moderation
Joined
13 Oct 2019
Messages
2,126
Location
Liverpool
I know I'm probably being naive, but I detest that money is "made" by traders in the city moving virtual pieces of paper around, (which we all end-up paying for, the money doesn't come out of thin air).

I wonder if George Stephenson, Isambard Kingdom Brunel and their peers spin in their graves at how this country has allowed it's manufacturing industry to almost disappear? John Major put the final nail in the UK locomotive building coffin.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
30,693
Location
Scotland
I wonder if George Stephenson, Isambard Kingdom Brunel and their peers spin in their graves at how this country has allowed it's manufacturing industry to almost disappear?
Yup. Spinning in their graves.

In the UK, manufacturing makes up 11% of GVA, 44% of total UK exports, 70% of business R&D, and directly employs 2.6 million people.
Source: https://www.themanufacturer.com/uk-manufacturing-statistics/
Britain-is-the-9th-largest-manufacturer-in-the-world-by-output-EEF.Make-UK-Factcard-2019.jpg


(Image shows that the UK is the world's ninth largest manufacturing economy by total output).

Although the manufacturing sector's share of both employment and the UK's GDP has steadily fallen since the 1960s, data from the OECD shows that manufacturing output in terms of both production and value has steadily increased since 1945. A 2009 report from PricewaterhouseCoopers, citing data from the UK Office for National Statistics, stated that manufacturing output (gross value added at 2007 prices) has increased in 35 of the 50 years between 1958 and 2007, and output in 2007 was at record levels, approximately double that in 1958
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_in_the_United_Kingdom#Recent_trends

The most serious decline has been recent, and driven largely by things like - oh, I don't know - uncertainty about our future trading relationships?
 
Last edited:

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,215
Yup. Spinning in their graves.


Source: https://www.themanufacturer.com/uk-manufacturing-statistics/
Britain-is-the-9th-largest-manufacturer-in-the-world-by-output-EEF.Make-UK-Factcard-2019.jpg


(Image shows that the UK is the world's ninth largest manufacturing economy by total output).

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_in_the_United_Kingdom#Recent_trends

The most serious decline has been recent, and driven largely by things like - oh, I don't know - uncertainty about our future trading relationships?

Must-ve been about 10 years ago now, but Clarkson-era BBC Top Gear did a fantastic piece on "here's all the stuff we still manufacture in the UK". It was a lot.
 

Grumpy Git

On Moderation
Joined
13 Oct 2019
Messages
2,126
Location
Liverpool
Well when I manufacture stuff I can say that virtually non of the components come from a UK factory (unfortunately). Lots of components have (what were) UK names, but sadly these have mostly been brought-out by central European companies and the factories in the UK closed.
 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,793
Location
Nottingham
What was the Derby BREL carriage works is still open.

Killing British loco building was probably more about selling the freight business to the Americans who then imported the Class 66, whereas BR might have ordered domestically as they did with the 60.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
30,693
Location
Scotland
Killing British loco building was probably more about selling the freight business to the Americans who then imported the Class 66, whereas BR might have ordered domestically as they did with the 60.
Though, if that was the most economically prudent thing to do then a UK based company would probably have done the same.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,027
Location
SE London
Well when I manufacture stuff I can say that virtually non of the components come from a UK factory (unfortunately). Lots of components have (what were) UK names, but sadly these have mostly been brought-out by central European companies and the factories in the UK closed.

And that's kinda what you'd expect with the growth in free trade over the last few decades. These days, a far, far, higher proportion of goods across the World are shipped to other countries than was the case, say, 50 years ago. That means that, no matter which country you live in, you can expect that a higher proportion of stuff that companies (and people) use will have been produced abroad - and likewise, a higher proportion of the stuff that companies produce will be consumed abroad rather than in your own country.

Of course, in the case of the UK, that effect is compounded by a higher proportion of our output and employment becoming service-based rather than manufacturing-based.
 

Peter Kelford

Member
Joined
29 Nov 2017
Messages
903
And that's kinda what you'd expect with the growth in free trade over the last few decades. These days, a far, far, higher proportion of goods across the World are shipped to other countries than was the case, say, 50 years ago. That means that, no matter which country you live in, you can expect that a higher proportion of stuff that companies (and people) use will have been produced abroad - and likewise, a higher proportion of the stuff that companies produce will be consumed abroad rather than in your own country.

Of course, in the case of the UK, that effect is compounded by a higher proportion of our output and employment becoming service-based rather than manufacturing-based.

For further reading:
Globalisation
Climate change
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,027
Location
SE London
Source: https://www.themanufacturer.com/uk-manufacturing-statistics/
Britain-is-the-9th-largest-manufacturer-in-the-world-by-output-EEF.Make-UK-Factcard-2019.jpg


(Image shows that the UK is the world's ninth largest manufacturing economy by total output).

It's also worth pointing out that a decline in manufacturing output as a % of GDP - and therefore a decline in the % of the population engaged in manufacturing - is likely to be an inevitable consequence of growing prosperity - because as countries get more wealthy, people are invariably going to want to spend a higher proportion of their incomes on services. If you think about - say - 150 years ago when people were much poorer, for most households, pretty much the entire household income would be spent either on food or on goods that need to be manufactured. Manufacturing would therefore constitute a very high proportion of GDP.

But as technology improves and people move beyond a subsistence-type existence, you reach a point where most of the population already has most of the material goods they need or want, and therefore any further rise in living standards tends to get spent on services or experiences rather than on physical goods. Hence manufactured goods declines as a % of GDP. That's nothing to think bad of - just a consequence of prosperity and high living standards (and despite all the austerity etc., average living standards in the UK are today waaaay higher than they were - say - 50 years ago).
 

Grumpy Git

On Moderation
Joined
13 Oct 2019
Messages
2,126
Location
Liverpool
I still find I use plenty of gear manufactured in Germany or Italy though, (even though some of the smaller component German stuff has gone to Czech Republic and more latterly China).
 

Esker-pades

Established Member
Joined
23 Jul 2015
Messages
3,766
Location
Beds, Bucks, or somewhere else
So what "logical and conciliatory response to a close referendum result" would have been devised had the result been 52:48 to Remain? What form of Remaining would have been proposed which cut as many as possible of our links with the EU and thereby gave the 48% something of what they thought was important? To save you pondering, I can tell you. No consideration whatsoever would have been afforded the Leavers. Mr Cameron would have appeared on the steps of No 10 on Friday morning, proudly announcing that the nation had given its verdict, the matter was finally put to bed, and we move together towards a bright future as full EU members. This idea that the losers must be appeased and accommodated is utter nonsense.
I'll let prominent leave campaigner Mr. Nigel Farage answer that question for you. Here's what he said in May 2016:
In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way.

Sources (I've given lots so that "remainer bias" can't be used as an argument):
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017
https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...rage-David-Cameron-unfinished-business-Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
 

JonasB

Member
Joined
27 Dec 2016
Messages
921
Location
Sweden
I'll let prominent leave campaigner Mr. Nigel Farage answer that question for you. Here's what he said in May 2016:

When I hear "Brexit means Brexit" and "Take back control", I sometimes wonder what the situation would have been like if remain had won with 52% of the votes. And David Cameron had announced that the people had spoken and remain means remain, and that the UK would now join Schengen, replace the pound with the euro, fully convert to SI-units and start driving on the right. What would the headlines in the Sun and the Daily Mail have been?
 

Esker-pades

Established Member
Joined
23 Jul 2015
Messages
3,766
Location
Beds, Bucks, or somewhere else
When I hear "Brexit means Brexit" and "Take back control", I sometimes wonder what the situation would have been like if remain had won with 52% of the votes. And David Cameron had announced that the people had spoken and remain means remain, and that the UK would now join Schengen, replace the pound with the euro, fully convert to SI-units and start driving on the right. What would the headlines in the Sun and the Daily Mail have been?
They'd have exploded, along with Mark Francois.
 

geoffk

Established Member
Joined
4 Aug 2010
Messages
3,223
I'll let prominent leave campaigner Mr. Nigel Farage answer that question for you. Here's what he said in May 2016:


Sources (I've given lots so that "remainer bias" can't be used as an argument):
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017
https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...rage-David-Cameron-unfinished-business-Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681

When I hear "Brexit means Brexit" and "Take back control", I sometimes wonder what the situation would have been like if remain had won with 52% of the votes. And David Cameron had announced that the people had spoken and remain means remain, and that the UK would now join Schengen, replace the pound with the euro, fully convert to SI-units and start driving on the right. What would the headlines in the Sun and the Daily Mail have been?
No, a remain win would have meant the status quo continuing, no change. Another referendum in a few years time might have been offered. What we have now is the economy being thrown up in the air, a march into the unknown with no obvious benefits except to a handful of super-rich tax-dodgers.
 
Joined
8 Jul 2014
Messages
225
No-one knows what will happen. I firmly believe apart from a few visible changes when travelling out of the UK, most Brits won’t notice any difference.
 

Peter Kelford

Member
Joined
29 Nov 2017
Messages
903

Arron Banks himself admits that this news outlet is a Eurosceptic one.

When I hear "Brexit means Brexit" and "Take back control", I sometimes wonder what the situation would have been like if remain had won with 52% of the votes. And David Cameron had announced that the people had spoken and remain means remain, and that the UK would now join Schengen, replace the pound with the euro, fully convert to SI-units and start driving on the right. What would the headlines in the Sun and the Daily Mail have been?

David Cameron himself is a eurosceptic. I don't think he would ever do any of those things except perhaps SI units.
 

nidave

Member
Joined
12 Jul 2011
Messages
923
I see Trump is making thinly veiled threats about (paraphrasing) "If you don't change your stance on your foreign policy, stop buying Chinese routers and do exactly what I say, how and when I tell you to, the trade deal won't happen."

I am sure I heard on R4 something along the lines of "those who voted Brexit agree that the nuclear deal is a bad thing and agree with trump" by a US senator (Will try and find it on iplayer later)
 

Peter Kelford

Member
Joined
29 Nov 2017
Messages
903
Britain faces a choice between being left behind technologically or losing out somewhat on a trade deal. Note that all Trump needs to do to get re-elected is not get caught on camera physically committing an 'indictable offence', or felony as they call it in the US. He is unlikely to lose even if he commits a war crime, threatens to commit a crime or incites, directs or premeditates a crime. Hardly a high bar or 'exemplary conduct'.
 
Last edited:

geoffk

Established Member
Joined
4 Aug 2010
Messages
3,223
No-one knows what will happen. I firmly believe apart from a few visible changes when travelling out of the UK, most Brits won’t notice any difference.
Depends on what kind of trade agreement is struck. Likely effects are longer queues at airports on re-entry; UK driving licence no longer valid and International Driving Permits required by some countries, including France (see Gov.UK website); EHIC card no longer valid so additional travel insurance required which may not cover some medical conditions; return of mobile phone roaming charges. This is just for holidays of course. Anyone wanting to work (for example a band or orchestra touring abroad) could face a new visa system as well as paperwork covering their instruments to prove they are not being imported. If we end up with no deal, all these things and worse will happen. The closer we stick to EU standards and regulations the easier it will be.
 
Joined
8 Jul 2014
Messages
225
Driving permits won’t take long to get from the Post Office (and not expensive either). Mobile phone companies have all said they’ve no plans to change EU roaming either.

Yes, admittedly there will be changes and some people will be more affected or will notice more. The people who just go abroad to Spain for a week with their kids and don’t intend to drive etc won’t notice much different.... those who want to work will have to get a Visa, but then, that’s not unlike most other big non-EU countries anyway?

Until full facts are known, it’s best to lay off the scaremongering...
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
30,693
Location
Scotland
Mobile phone companies have all said they’ve no plans to change EU roaming either.
Of course they've said that. Those nice charitable companies will continue to provide a service that costs them more without passing the charges through to their customers, just like they always do. :rolleyes:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top