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Scottish Independence

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Struner

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[…]
Such a compromise would have taken into account the fact that the country was bitterly divided on the issue, and would have reduced the risk of Scotland wanting another independence referendum and Northern Ireland wanting to leave the UK and become part of a united Ireland.
[…].
& why do you call that a risk?
 
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yorkie

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If anyone wishes to discuss Brexit please do so in another thread.
 

Journeyman

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If anyone wishes to discuss Brexit please do so in another thread.

The discussion about Brexit is actually highly relevant here. You can't really discuss Scottish independence without also referring to it.
 

bramling

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I'm furious with Cameron for holding a referendum that was completely unnecessary, and that very few people wanted.

Why should the prospect of a referendum have kept being denied? The fact that 52% voted one way, in spite of the full weight of the government propaganda machine being behind remain, suggests it was more than a very few people who wanted it. Sooner or later the ever-evolving nature of the EU meant a referendum was inevitable, as people never really had the option to vote based on the EU's modern reality of being a political club, as opposed to an economic one.

Fact is we had it, and the result went a particular way. Likewise Scotland had their referendum and that result also went a particular way. On both these issues the political system should be quietly getting on with implementing the outcome, as now finally seems to be happening under Mr Johnson (notice how comparatively little media coverage there's been regarding Brexit since the parliamentary composition changed after the election!).

Perhaps Salmond and Sturgeon miscalculated and should have held their "once in a generation" referendum a bit later, thus making it *after* the EU one?! Again, a miscalculation in underestimating the strength of latent anti-EU feeling across the UK.
 

najaB

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Perhaps Salmond and Sturgeon miscalculated and should have held their "once in a generation" referendum a bit later, thus making it *after* the EU one?!
Yeah. How silly of them, in 2012, to not have waited for the referendum that wasn't announced until 2015.
Again, a miscalculation in underestimating the strength of latent anti-EU feeling across the UK.
Alternatively, many studies/polls have shown that it was an anti-establishment vote as much as it was anti-EU.
 

bramling

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Yeah. How silly of them, in 2012, to not have waited for the referendum that wasn't announced until 2015.

Still a strategic miscalculation, in that they evidently failed to predict that an EU referendum might be on the cards. This does of course assume that EU membership is *so* important to Scottish people that it trumps union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland -- Sturgeon is always keen to emphasise this, but it's never really been tested as such.
 

najaB

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Still a strategic miscalculation, in that they evidently failed to predict that an EU referendum might be on the cards.
We were told by the UK Government that remaining in the Union was the only way to guarantee remaining in the EU...
This does of course assume that EU membership is *so* important to Scottish people that it trumps union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland -- Sturgeon is always keen to emphasise this, but it's never really been tested as such.
Obviously, anecdote isn't the singular of data, but I voted No in the Independence Referendum. If another is called, I'm leaning towards Yes. And I know from conversations that others feel the same way.
 

ComUtoR

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but I voted No in the Independence Referendum. If another is called, I'm leaning towards Yes.

What is driving you and others to change your minds ? Is there a belief that leaving the UK could or would lead to EU Membership ?

Cheers in advance
 

Sad Sprinter

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Agreed, a "winner takes all" attitude is engrained in British political culture unlike some other countries in Europe and elsewhere.

In 1994 Norway held a referendum on joining the EU, and the result was 52.2% no (i.e. a similar margin to our 2016 Brexit vote). Because it was such a close result the Norwegian government went for the compromise solution of joining the EEA to gain access to the Single Market but without full EU membership. Presumably it was felt that this was a solution that EU supporters and opponents alike would feel able to live with.

On that basis, if Cameron (or his successor) had decided that a Norway-style Brexit would be appropriate for a 52% win for Leave (and given that Scotland and Northern Ireland had voted Remain), then Remainers and softer Leavers alike might have felt able to live with that kind of compromise, however reluctantly. The most ardent Brexiters wouldn't have been happy as we would still have to abide by EU rules without having any say in them (as countries like Norway and Switzerland have to) and we'd still have to accept freedom of movement from the remaining EU countries, but at least we would have been able to leave the political institutions of the EU and have our own independent agricultural and fisheries policies whilst retaining many of the benefits of EU membership.

Such a compromise would have taken into account the fact that the country was bitterly divided on the issue, and would have reduced the risk of Scotland wanting another independence referendum and Northern Ireland wanting to leave the UK and become part of a united Ireland.

Interpreting a 52% win for Leave as a mandate for a hard Brexit is rather like taking a 52% win for Remain as a mandate to join the Euro, join Schengen and go fully metric.

The trouble is with a Norway situation, is that euroscepticism is often based on the very principle of alignment with Europe. Norway which would not give control of immigration and trade policy still leaves us in the European economic orbit. It is a matter of principle that there should be no ceding of power or as little as possible for a healthy trading relationship. If Cameron did do that, there would just be calls further down the line to downgrade to an even looser relationship with Europe.
 

Sad Sprinter

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We were told by the UK Government that remaining in the Union was the only way to guarantee remaining in the EU...
Obviously, anecdote isn't the singular of data, but I voted No in the Independence Referendum. If another is called, I'm leaning towards Yes. And I know from conversations that others feel the same way.

Assuming Brexit is, at best, has very little noticable detriment to our current membership-would Scotland still feel the desire to be in the EU?

& why do you call that a risk?

Judging by your posts its clear you have a somewhat unsympathetic view of the UK. But the reason he sees it as a risk is because he doesn't want to see his country broken in two?
 

Struner

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[...]
Judging by your posts its clear you have a somewhat unsympathetic view of the UK. But the reason he sees it as a risk is because he doesn't want to see his country broken in two?
Many people on this thread seem to look at Scottish independence from a bookkeeping point of view. Nothing to do with a right to self-determination.
& people who care for the union should stand up for the VOW.
But I don't see much of that about. So yes, I support Scottish independence.
 

najaB

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What is driving you and others to change your minds ? Is there a belief that leaving the UK could or would lead to EU Membership ?
Assuming Brexit is, at best, has very little noticable detriment to our current membership-would Scotland still feel the desire to be in the EU?
The discussions that I've had mainly focus around two factors: first is the issue of EU membership itself. The general feeling is that the UK as a whole and Scotland specifically has gained more than we've lost through being Eu members. For example, Scottish universities are very popular with European research students and vice versa and Scottish farmers/fishermen/manufacturers sell a lot into Europe. So, to answer @Sad Sprinter'a question - if we were to keep the key freedoms then that would go a long way to settling the question in favour of staying in the Union.

The second issue (well, second for me but primary for some) is not that Brexit is happening, but rather how the UK Government has approached it. There has been (or at least appears to have been) little to no consultation with the Scottish Government as to what Brexit actually means. Most of the people I interact with see it as Engexit - it's something that England is foisting on the rest of us with scant regard for how it will affect us. The last few years have reinforced the notion that England doesn't care about Scotland (unless a Scottish British sportsperson is doing well that is!) At pain of repeating myself, we were promised by the UK Government that the only way to guarantee that we would remain EU members was to vote to stay in the Union, yet barely two years later we were told that we were getting dragged out against our will.

They might not have been lying to us, but it definitely felt like we'd been sold a pig in poke.
 

TrafficEng

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...There has been (or at least appears to have been) little to no consultation with the Scottish Government as to what Brexit actually means.

That's partially because it appears no form of Brexit would ever be acceptable to the Scottish Government.

Which is understandable (and why this is a Scottish independence point not a Brexit one) because aside from the stuff about universities and trade the fundamental overarching value of EU membership to the (current) Scottish Government is it helps facilitate the possibility of Scottish independence.

With an independent Scotland in the EU alongside the UK then all the prickly issues like borders, trade, migration, FoM etc don't matter. Scotland can be independent and maintain virtually the same relationship with rUK. Just as Catalonia could feasibly become independent from Spain, or Wallonia could separate from Belgium.

As soon as rUK exits the EU then Scotland (and rUK) faces all the same issues that have been discussed endlessly for the last three years. Does there need to be a hard border between Scotland and England? Can Scottish goods be transported through England to get to mainland EU? What happens to Scottish people living in rUK, and rUK people living in Scotland? Will financial institutions based in Scotland be able to operate in rUK?

Brexit fundamentally impacts on the feasibility* of Scottish independence. No wonder Sturgeon is so opposed to it. (*but does not prevent it)

At pain of repeating myself, we were promised by the UK Government that the only way to guarantee that we would remain EU members was to vote to stay in the Union, yet barely two years later we were told that we were getting dragged out against our will.

Here we are in some agreement, although I'm not sure it was only the UK Government making such guarantees.

What was guaranteed (at least that is my understanding of the EU's position) is that leaving the UK would have meant Scotland leaving the EU, albeit with the ability to rejoin on newly negotiated terms (which might or might not have been the same as those of rUK).

It is the kind of weaseling that many people have come to expect from certain members of the political establishment - the same ones who also told us it was essential to remain in the EU or face apocalypse (or worse).

For that reason I find myself sympathetic to your PoV.
 

najaB

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That's partially because it appears no form of Brexit would ever be acceptable to the Scottish Government.
I agree that the Scottish Government is fundamentally opposed to Brexit. However, EEA membership or the equivalent, which was very much on offer (or even the assumed default position) during the EU referendum campaign would be very hard for them to argue against. The hard Brexit that we are heading towards does nothing to help keep the Union together.
Here we are in some agreement, although I'm not sure it was only the UK Government making such guarantees.
It was much messier than that.

The SNP's position during the Independence referendum was that an independent Scotland would inherit the UK's opt-outs and rebates on a proportional basis. They claimed that they had taken legal advice and were assured that this was the case, but when asked to show that legal advice they fought to keep it confidential. Eventually they were forced by the Courts to publish the advice at which point they admitted that they didn't actually have any.

Meanwhile the EU's position was that they weren't taking a position unless specifically requested by the UK Government. This was largely due to not wanting to set a precedent either way due to the complexities presented by the independence movements in Catalonia and the Basque regions (and others). The UK Government declined to request an opinion.

There were multiple, conflicting unofficial statements by EU and national officials which also muddied the waters as to if Scotland would continue to be an EU member if we voted for independence. We were variously told that we would inherit the UK's position, become a third-country with automatic membership on default conditions (e.g. have to adopt the Euro), that we would fall out of the EU but be guaranteed re-entry, or that we would have to re-apply and that our application would be blocked (with Spain being the most likely).

The UK Government was the only party who took a clear and unequivocal position.
 
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Struner

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& it’s not just the Scottish government that opposes brexit. In that respect it speaks for Scotland. Remember that the country voted by almost 2:1 to remain in the EU?
 

bramling

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The discussions that I've had mainly focus around two factors: first is the issue of EU membership itself. The general feeling is that the UK as a whole and Scotland specifically has gained more than we've lost through being Eu members. For example, Scottish universities are very popular with European research students and vice versa and Scottish farmers/fishermen/manufacturers sell a lot into Europe. So, to answer @Sad Sprinter'a question - if we were to keep the key freedoms then that would go a long way to settling the question in favour of staying in the Union.

The second issue (well, second for me but primary for some) is not that Brexit is happening, but rather how the UK Government has approached it. There has been (or at least appears to have been) little to no consultation with the Scottish Government as to what Brexit actually means. Most of the people I interact with see it as Engexit - it's something that England is foisting on the rest of us with scant regard for how it will affect us. The last few years have reinforced the notion that England doesn't care about Scotland (unless a Scottish British sportsperson is doing well that is!) At pain of repeating myself, we were promised by the UK Government that the only way to guarantee that we would remain EU members was to vote to stay in the Union, yet barely two years later we were told that we were getting dragged out against our will.

They might not have been lying to us, but it definitely felt like we'd been sold a pig in poke.

I do think Scotland has an element of unrealistic expectations. In any union it’s never going to be realistic for the wishes of 5 million people to take precedence over 60 million. I have some sympathy for this situation and can understand how this might be a perfectly valid justification for independence, but on the other hand Scotland does do well out of the union in a number of areas. The likes of Sturgeon do tend to focus on the negatives in order to pursue an ideological agenda, in my view.
 

Sad Sprinter

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There is literally no form of soft Brexit that would ever work for Brexiteers, because as I said, for many its the principle of being in European institutions that is the problem.

The question is-if a hard border with England is potentially unavoidable, is this a price worth paying for EU membership?
 

najaB

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I do think Scotland has an element of unrealistic expectations. In any union it’s never going to be realistic for the wishes of 5 million people to take precedence over 60 million
15 million (the Leave vote in England).
 

najaB

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I didn’t mean specifically about Brexit, however it’s another example. Don’t forget Wales votes leave too.
Fair enough. The issue is that, rightly or wrongly, the impression that the UK Government gives is that the 5 million just don't matter.
 

edwin_m

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I do think Scotland has an element of unrealistic expectations. In any union it’s never going to be realistic for the wishes of 5 million people to take precedence over 60 million. I have some sympathy for this situation and can understand how this might be a perfectly valid justification for independence, but on the other hand Scotland does do well out of the union in a number of areas. The likes of Sturgeon do tend to focus on the negatives in order to pursue an ideological agenda, in my view.
The Brexiters were also motivated by ideology, as there is absolutely no practical benefit to the UK leaving the EU. So why should Scotland be similarly motivated to go for independence?
 

najaB

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Surely it isn’t? It seems unfathomable to erect a physical barrier against a country of 300 years union in favour of a union less than 60 years old on a continent several hundred miles from Scotland?
Where distance is concerned, Aberdeen is only 50km closer to London than it is to the Hague. And nobody is expecting there to be a physical barrier along the entire border - at the worst there would be checkpoints on the trunk roads to check goods vehicles.

After all, we've been promised that there won't be any physical barrier between NI and ROI, haven't we?
 

nidave

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Surely it isn’t? It seems unfathomable to erect a physical barrier against a country of 300 years union in favour of a union less than 60 years old on a continent several hundred miles from Scotland?
WHY? Why is Scotland being in a United Kingdom of countries better than the UK being in the EU.

Why is one group of countries (UK) working together in a customs union, unified food and other regulations better than another one (EU). Just because the uk older doesn't make it better. Why is Scotland becoming independent bad yet the uk leaving the EU good. Its the same thing in principle.
 

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Surely it isn’t? It seems unfathomable to erect a physical barrier against a country of 300 years union in favour of a union less than 60 years old on a continent several hundred miles from Scotland?
Or Scotland could be thinking that the Auld Alliance might now offer more than the union with Little England does?
 
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