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DfT: South Western Railway NOT Financially Sustainable

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GRALISTAIR

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There's a definite undertone, if you read it all, of "we'll put the anti-strike law in place and then it'll be DOO for breakfast, lunch and dinner".
I sense this too

No question at all in my mind. Something is afoot. But surely, Boris wont also change the SoS Schapps in a reshuffle amidst all this will he? It needs a steady hand right now.
 

yorkie

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Has anything changed since the announcement made a couple of weeks ago, as discussed in the thread SWR to be nationalised?

Also just a gentle reminder that if anyone has any suggestions, ideas, etc that we have a dedicated section for these.

The following related threads may also be of interest:

 

MarkyT

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They have located the cable at fault, so I suspect there will be a resolution.
The signalling around there is fairly modern, last renewed around 15 years ago. The high quantity of cabling involved with the particular unusual technology chosen may be proving difficult to maintain effectively now however. Only Bournemouth and Portsmouth were ever equipped with that particular type of Siemens signalling control equipment in the UK, after which they lost their framework contract mainly through their poor performance on delivery of Portsmouth I suspect. Siemens reappeared in the UK market a few years later however when they purchased the rail control businesses from Invensys, which included the old Westinghouse signalling organisation based at Chippenham, and by then also incorporating the former BR design and integration teams of SCUK, one of the businesses carved out of Central Services at the time of privatisation and having project offices around the country. Siemens now offers main line signalling in UK using SSI family products with distributed input/output modules that utilise far less cabling.
 
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LNW-GW Joint

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As the franchise programme seems to be imploding (on the current model), DfT will be able to re-shape the railway significantly this year (if they have the vision).
It's also odd that of the First Group franchises, TPE and SWR are deep in the mire, while GWR is likely to get a 3rd direct award, and WCP has yet to show its hand.
There doesn't appear to be a consistent management style across the piece.

I could also see the "Operator of Last Resort" being renamed "Strategic Rail Authority Mk2" and being put in charge of the failing half of the network.
That means the DfT would have to take all the business risk that they have failed to transfer to the commercial TOCs.
 

Shalford

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SWR no surprise. The lines out of Waterloo have been treated as a cash cow for years (SWT used to make a 'profit' under the DfT mad accountancy) with little investment in the basic infrastructure (apart from Waterloo) for what is one of the most intensively used parts of the rail network. It is worth pointing out recent figures quoted in the Sunday Times showed regional transport spending, in total, for the South East £892 (excluding London) was below the spend per head for London (£3,636), West Midlands (£2,062), Northwest (£ 1,247), and North (£1,247). These figures as always have to be treated with caution as to what is included but with the push to invest in the North cannot see anything beyond absolute basic repairs for some time to come.
 

Bookd

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If, having destroyed the franchise, would RMT stop their regular strikes if the company was nationalised?
 

packermac

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If, having destroyed the franchise, would RMT stop their regular strikes if the company was nationalised?
Well assuming that OLR would have their strings pulled to the same tune as SWR by the DfT I would expect nothing to change.
 

thenorthern

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If, having destroyed the franchise, would RMT stop their regular strikes if the company was nationalised?

Difficult to say as generally private rail companies are tougher and less likely to give in to the unions. The Department for Transport wants Driver Only Operation however I think a state-owned operator may have given in by now.
 

Twotwo

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To be fair, most of the issues are network rail related and the aging infrastructure. So it doesnt matter who's in charge as the issues will still remain. Far too many trains run on the surburban line, it's every 3-4 mins. Even other networks such as tfl rail and c2c don't run every 3 mins even during peak!

It also didn't help when they moved their control from Waterloo to Basingstoke and the decisions from control are baffling to be honest.
 

Wilts Wanderer

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To be fair, most of the issues are network rail related and the aging infrastructure. So it doesnt matter who's in charge as the issues will still remain. Far too many trains run on the surburban line, it's every 3-4 mins. Even other networks such as tfl rail and c2c don't run every 3 mins even during peak!

It also didn't help when they moved their control from Waterloo to Basingstoke and the decisions from control are baffling to be honest.

Too many trains by what measure? That sounds like something an infrastructure manager would say without any regard to the need to transport an ever growing number of customers.

I agree moving Control to Basingstoke was a baffling choice.
 

JonathanH

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Even other networks such as tfl rail and c2c don't run every 3 mins even during peak!

Between 1700 and 1800

Departures from Fenchurch Street - two track railway from Limehouse to Barking - 1701, 1704, 1707, 1710, 1713, 1716, 1719, 1722, 1725, 1728, 1731, 1734, 1737, 1740, 1743, 1746, 1752, 1755, 1758 - that is pretty close to a train every three minutes
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/FST/2020-01-22/1700-1800?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

Departures from Waterloo on the suburban side - 1703, 1706, 1709, 1712, 1717, 1720, 1724, 1727, 1733, 1736, 1739, 1742, 1747, 1750, 1754, 1757 - three, four and five minute gaps
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...20-01-22/1700-1800?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

Departures from Liverpool Street on the electric lines - 1700, 1707, 1710, 1717, 1720, 1727, 1730, 1736, 1739, 1742, 1746, 1749, 1752, 1756, 1800 - a clear step up to three / four minute gaps between 1736 and 1800.
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...2/1700-1800?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt&toc=XR

Nothing special about the departure frequency from Waterloo relative to other routes.
 

JonathanH

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Difficult to say as generally private rail companies are tougher and less likely to give in to the unions. The Department for Transport wants Driver Only Operation however I think a state-owned operator may have given in by now.

The position is completely the opposite. As state-owned operator can afford to basically sit out a strike until it cripples a union to get what it wants.
 

Twotwo

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Too many trains by what measure? That sounds like something an infrastructure manager would say without any regard to the need to transport an ever growing number of customers.

I agree moving Control to Basingstoke was a baffling choice.
Between 1700 and 1800

Departures from Fenchurch Street - two track railway from Limehouse to Barking - 1701, 1704, 1707, 1710, 1713, 1716, 1719, 1722, 1725, 1728, 1731, 1734, 1737, 1740, 1743, 1746, 1752, 1755, 1758 - that is pretty close to a train every three minutes
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/FST/2020-01-22/1700-1800?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

Departures from Waterloo on the suburban side - 1703, 1706, 1709, 1712, 1717, 1720, 1724, 1727, 1733, 1736, 1739, 1742, 1747, 1750, 1754, 1757 - three, four and five minute gaps
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...20-01-22/1700-1800?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

Departures from Liverpool Street on the electric lines - 1700, 1707, 1710, 1717, 1720, 1727, 1730, 1736, 1739, 1742, 1746, 1749, 1752, 1756, 1800 - a clear step up to three / four minute gaps between 1736 and 1800.
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...2/1700-1800?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt&toc=XR

Nothing special about the departure frequency from Waterloo relative to other routes.

My point is that it's like that all day. In the peak, swr add the extra Epsom and that's about it because you can't add any more services.

With tfl rail, the extra service leaves Ilford depot and half of the peak services terminate/start at GDP. Its a 7 minute and a 3 minute gap and so on.

C2c a lot of them peak services are empty from East ham depot.

Their not running at full capacity all day. There is reason why their peak services is usually quite good.

So it's not really the same.
 

DerekC

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To be fair, most of the issues are network rail related and the aging infrastructure. So it doesnt matter who's in charge as the issues will still remain. Far too many trains run on the surburban line, it's every 3-4 mins. Even other networks such as tfl rail and c2c don't run every 3 mins even during peak!.

A suburban service with reliable infrastructure and modern high performjatrains should be able to run at 3 minute peak headways, provided the train, intermediate station platform design and despatch method can deliver a dwell time of 60s or better. The peak headway on the main line slows hasn't actually changed in the past few years. What has (as you say) is the reliability of the infrastructure and (probably) the motivation of the TOC staff.
 

3141

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of course they will, they said pretty much they would in their manifesto...and great british public (once again) voted for it

I doubt that many people made up their minds which way to vote because of that particular issue. But it's disappointing that there's very little mention of passengers in the posts on this thread. They, and the people who send cargos by rail, are the reason why we have a rail system. If it is disrupted by action taken by people who work on it, then passengers are likely to support a government which says it intends to address that issue.
 

Meerkat

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They've failed to meet most of their other commitments though. (OK, the Desiro refurbs are finished at last, but around a year late).
I imagine the business driven away by the endless guards strikes is a significant part of the problem, so the RMT may feel they've "won" in possibly breaking another franchise. Long term, it may look different though.
The RMT won’t feel they have won when SWT get a direct award with no revenue risk and an instruction to push through DOO whatever. Five year term for Boris so get it done and running again before the next election.
 

Lincoln

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As state-owned operator can afford to basically sit out a strike until it cripples a union to get what it wants.

This isn’t a criticism again your post @JonathanH , I just feel there is a need for clarity.

Let’s be clear, the union won’t be crippled… it’s the members who are taking action and losing pay.

I guess it makes it more comfortable to talk about “union this and union that”. Rather than acknowledging the situation as it is.

Moving on, your comparisons to other operators are quite enlightening and show, on the face of it, no excuse for offering such poor punctuality.
 

JonathanH

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Moving on, your comparisons to other operators are quite enlightening and show, on the face of it, no excuse for offering such poor punctuality.

Other than, as the first respondent pointed out, the track layout and where the trains come from. Fenchurch Street, despite only having four platforms, has a track layout that is superbly set up for offering a large number of departures very quickly. Many of the peak trains come in empty, fill up and depart. Waterloo is a bit different - most of the trains on the suburban side arrive with passengers over what remains a slow and fairly constrained approach and can pick up delay from different sources on the way in.
 

WatcherZero

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The Office of Rail and Road criticised Network Rail for problems in the north. Are those worse than in the SWR region as I'm not aware of them critising Network Rail for this area, unless they already did so previously?

Moving Annual Average:
Northern 50% of delays attributable to Network Rail, 13.7% to other TOC's, 36.2% self inflicted
SWR 68.6% of delays attributable to Network Rail, 3.87% to other TOC's, 27.37% self inflicted

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/performance/passenger-rail-performance/
 

winks

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Nobody has mentioned that passenger numbers are dropping and have been since 2016/17. Quite large percentages too - 7% in 2017 for SWT . Yes SWT. Less people are travelling for whatever reason and that blows a hole in the accounts as we’ve seen with SWR.

Bye Bye SWR it was very short lived.
 

thenorthern

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The position is completely the opposite. As state-owned operator can afford to basically sit out a strike until it cripples a union to get what it wants.

Debatable, the strikes in the days of British Rail were much worse and affected the whole network on several occasions. Public sector employers are also known to have more strikes than private companies.
 

w1bbl3

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As the franchise programme seems to be imploding (on the current model), DfT will be able to re-shape the railway significantly this year (if they have the vision).
It's also odd that of the First Group franchises, TPE and SWR are deep in the mire, while GWR is likely to get a 3rd direct award, and WCP has yet to show its hand.
There doesn't appear to be a consistent management style across the piece.

GWR under direct award 5? is effectively a concession rather than a franchise with DfT defining the outputs and GWR responsible for delivery. The management contracts post 2013 will in end see the franchise having operated for longer under management contracts than the original franchise term. I could see the management contract / concession model as used with VTWC and GWR being the ultimate replacement of franchises. TPE and SWR are franchises that appear to have overbid on unrealistic promises, undoubtedly needed to secure the franchise award. IHMO DfT franchising has been rotten to the core from circa '11.
 

infobleep

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The ORR did a review of South Western performance as recently as July 2018. See Review of Network Rail's performance delivery to South Western Railway services
I'd forgotten about that report. Perhaps because it doesn't feel like anything has changed since it was written. Things may have happened behind the scenes though and change isn't going to happen overnight.

Did the problems in the north start later or get worse later than than in the South Western Railway region, given this report is out two years later than the other.
 
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infobleep

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A suburban service with reliable infrastructure and modern high performjatrains should be able to run at 3 minute peak headways, provided the train, intermediate station platform design and despatch method can deliver a dwell time of 60s or better. The peak headway on the main line slows hasn't actually changed in the past few years. What has (as you say) is the reliability of the infrastructure and (probably) the motivation of the TOC staff.
Not sure if the initial part of my reply should go here, in a new thread or one of the existing other ones.

The biggest period for train in and out delays in the evening, at Waterloo, seems to be be roughly between 18:00 and 18:45. Not sure about the morning, other than I read regular reports of train delayed due to congestion or train delayed due to late running train ahead. I rarely see a reason given as to why the train ahead is running late though. I put these delays down to numbers of passengers travelling in the peak but maybe that isn't the reason.

In terms of finances. If there are delays due the infrastructure, weather, people hit by trains etc. etc., Network Rail pay South Western Railway compensation. I was under the impression the government would be funding losses due to the RMT strike.

If those two things are true, are the losses due to less people deciding to travel off peak and less trains being able to run inside and outside the peaks than planned, outside of the strike periods?

If they had been able to introduce their revised timetable fully when intended, would that have ensured they were financially sustainable?
 

infobleep

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I doubt that many people made up their minds which way to vote because of that particular issue. But it's disappointing that there's very little mention of passengers in the posts on this thread. They, and the people who send cargos by rail, are the reason why we have a rail system. If it is disrupted by action taken by people who work on it, then passengers are likely to support a government which says it intends to address that issue.
I chose not to vote Conservative in the past due to my then local MPs views on trains running without guards. I may be in a minority though but it goes to show this issue divides people.
 

infobleep

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Nobody has mentioned that passenger numbers are dropping and have been since 2016/17. Quite large percentages too - 7% in 2017 for SWT . Yes SWT. Less people are travelling for whatever reason and that blows a hole in the accounts as we’ve seen with SWR.

Bye Bye SWR it was very short lived.
Why are less people traveling though? It can't surely be in the peaks as I see the trains looking rather busy. Is it leisure travel that is dropping
 

joncombe

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SWT especially in their last few years seemed to have a near permenant special offer on weekend travel with cheap tickets available walk up on their longer distance routes. This seemed very successful in increasing passenger numbers. However SWR haven't been doing that which I suspect has contributed to the fall in numbers.
 

Journeyman

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I chose not to vote Conservative in the past due to my then local MPs views on trains running without guards. I may be in a minority though but it goes to show this issue divides people.

I think you're in an absolutely tiny minority. Also, would you have realistically considered voting Conservative if it wasn't for that issue?
 
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