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Northern franchise to end 1 March 2020 with Operator of Last Resort to take over

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DarloRich

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least surprising news ever.

The important thing here is not Northern but what the Williams review says. Remember, this is all ground work for that announcement.
 
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Mogster

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March, eh? If I were in charge of the OLR I'd be putting the bite on CAF to have as many new trains as possible in service. The rest will take a long time. More 319s? Should be easy to at least have enough spares, well spare.

The worse shortages seem to be with diesel units. Northern are running regular 6 car double 331 sets and 2 car DMUs...
 

pdeaves

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There's an assertion in one of the BBC article's comments that a franchise handed over to OLR has to be franchised off again when it becomes profitable. I don't think anyone expects Northern to turn a profit in the foreseeable future but, just out of interest, is that assertion correct?
I would be surprised if it is. The east coast operator is, I understand, 'profitable' but not making the premium required (or not when OLR took over).
 

HullRailMan

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The focus on customer satisfaction sounds interesting, highlighting that it about more than just making sure a train actually turns up. The quality and cleanliness of the trim matters too when you’re competing with the private car.

Will be interesting to see what extra traction capacity is brought in, and where it comes from.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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There's an assertion in one of the BBC article's comments that a franchise handed over to OLR has to be franchised off again when it becomes profitable. I don't think anyone expects Northern to turn a profit in the foreseeable future but, just out of interest, is that assertion correct?

Under the present UK law and EU rules, franchises must be competed for periodically.
Direct awards (which is effectively what OLR is given) to plug the gap between franchise competitions can last for 2 years.
That's why Virgin got 4 successive direct awards since 2012 on ICWC, and First Group are currently on the same sort of deal on GWR.
The stated intention on LNER is that it will be refranchised as East Coast Partnership sometime in the future.
However, EU rules won't count for much going forward, and the Williams review will generate new legislation which will change the UK rules.
But nominally, DfT has a couple of years with OLR before refranchising Northern.
 

Aictos

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all Northern's trains will be deep-cleaned and we will review the cleaning pattern to make sure the first and last passengers travel on trains in the same condition.

That would be a good outcome alone if done well!

I might be cynical but the first and last trains could be spotless yet you still get plenty of passengers who will still leave those trains like a rubbish tip.

It’s a nice idea but it’s not easy to carry out.
 

F Great Eastern

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I'm going to be highly cynical here.

In recent weeks there has been talk that things have picked up and in the short term future lots of new trains will be rolled out and that it makes it a very good time for the government to actually do something. They probably decided that if they took charge earlier then there would have been a lot of stuff they would not be able to solve quickly and people might start pointing fingers at the people who are actually to blame for the majority of the issues. Obviously that could never be allowed, so the government probably worked out the time that they could take over so they get the minimum of blame for problems during their time and the maximum of praise from the improvements which are coming up.

The simple fact is the current system like academies in the education sector, is one that is designed to ensure that the operator carries the can for everything that goes wrong whilst making sure that the people who are the root cause of many (but not all) of the issues do not take any of the flack, because the average member of the public doesn't understand what is going on behind the scenes and how operators are being let down by a lack of promised infrastructure being delivered in the same way that academies are struggling in the education sector, in some part due to poor management but in a lot of cases in good schools, due to a squeeze on funding that isn't apparent to many in the public eye.

The Tory government policy has always been to try and take credit for the things that go well whilst trying to lay all of the blame at the operators, even when the operators have been screwed over by incompetent politicians, a department of transport with no clue and also failed to provide relevant infrastructure. Some operators haven't helped themselves and can't blame everything on the DfT and Network Rail and of course, if Northern Rail was in the south of the country, nothing would have been done whatsoever because all this is about keeping Tory voters happy in the north and no more and no less.

Northern Rail had many faults, but today's decision is influenced by nothing more than ensuring the Tory vote holds up in the North of England. By stripping Northern of their franchise, it allows them to play the false narrative that everything was down to Northern and they are addressing it, so people don't get through to the root of the problem, since they've been thrown a scapegoat instead of blaming-the department of transport itself.

The Rail industry has no hope of reaching it's potential in this country when the Tories are more obsessed with trying to play this stupid nationalise the praise and privatise the blame game. Yes Northern Rail have made mistakes but so have the DFT, but time and time again we see the DFT failing to be held account for it's actions and the Tories determined to protect it from any blame, hang the operators out to dry for the whole shebang so the DFT get away scot-free with their errors every time.

Every time a TOC messed up we see it carry the can for it's own mistakes and the DFTs. When is the DfT ever going to take responsibility and carry the can for it's own mistakes?
 

Fisherman80

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After many years of sat on the fence,in my opinion it is time to let the remaining franchises run their course and renationalise them.
I'm not here to bash Northern,as to me the majority of the problems they have had to deal with have been beyond their control,the 769 programme being one example.
My personal opinion is that we should have British Rail back,using the sectors like they did from the mid 80s up to the early 90s.
 

F Great Eastern

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After many years of sat on the fence,in my opinion it is time to let the remaining franchises run their course and renationalise them.

The Conservatives are going to be in power for many years now and they will never do that for a very simple reason.

If everything is under state control, they'll have nobody else to blame and people would figure out that the DfT has been a big part of the problem over the last few years. The current system is set-up in a way to suit politicians, not passengers.

If the government was honest with people it would say that Northern have failed to meet appropriate standards but also that they have failed to provide the relevant infrastructure, but they will not do that, because that would mean the DfT would have to take the blame for it's decisions and breaking it's promises and it's far easier to cover that up whilst the public blame Northern for DfT's broken promises and delays.
 

matt_world2004

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If Arriva challenge it in the courts, presumably they retain the franchise as that plays out? Much like minicab firm Uber seem to keep running whilst their challenge to TfL licence refusal plays out in the courts?
They won't challenge it in the courts
 

Jozhua

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Let's not forget, the DfT also failed to deliver on their franchise commitments (a.k.a more infrastructure)

The Northern franchise 'may' become more reliable, but been as 90% of the issues are to do with infrastructure I have my doubts. Under Arriva, the franchise has been becoming more reliable the past few months. I don't doubt their incompetence, but considering how the DfT has been handling things for the past few months, I doubt they will do much better.

Ultimately, until the infrastructure repairs, improvements and electrifications are carried out, I don't see much end in sight for the issues seen.

The only positive I see to this is that the DfT will have no scapegoat and all eyes will be on them and only then when unreliability continues, they try to Union-bust again or have to reduce service due to infrastructure constraints. Then the general public may have a better understanding of the situation rather than just Arriva Northern = Bad and not how new Franchises seem to be set up to fail with inadequate infrastructure from Network Rail with broken promises and overly-ambitious franchise requirements from the DFT.
 

Snow1964

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Could Arriva choose to asset strip (eg remove some of its new ticket machines for use elsewhere, or similar)
or do things like cancel all further staff training for its remaining 5 weeks
 

notlob.divad

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The focus on customer satisfaction sounds interesting, highlighting that it about more than just making sure a train actually turns up. The quality and cleanliness of the trim matters too when you’re competing with the private car.

Will be interesting to see what extra traction capacity is brought in, and where it comes from.

It won't be 'extra' capacity. It will be the transfer of the 323s from West Midlands trains, that as far as I am aware has already been decided. I suppose under OLR there may be a bit more flexibility to throw the remaining 9 units at the problem. However the ultimate problems for extra capacity are:
- there are not enough routes that are fully electrified, and EMUs are pretty much all that is available.
- there isn't the network capacity to run more frequent trains
- the platforms on much of the network are not long enough to run longer trains.
All three of these are infrastructure issues so actually getting extra EMUs are not going to help.
 

DJH1971

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Agreed.

One rogue franchise could be put down as bad luck, but there's several franchises awry at the moment and that's too much of a coincidence.

South West Trains are highly set to follow suit, plus Transpennine Express and West Midlands are also on thin ice.
 

F Great Eastern

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Let's not forget, the DfT also failed to deliver on their franchise commitments (a.k.a more infrastructure)

You will not see that ever being admitted by the DfT, far better to hang someone else to dry for it.

This is the crux of the problem in the UK industry, the DfT is too concerned about ensuring the system is set up in a way it protects itself from any blame and being able to find a scapegoat when something goes wrong, rather than providing good rail services.

This is why we so badly need the Tories out. The same is happening in education where schools are having their hands tied behind their backs and funding cut and later on an Ofsted inspector comes around and bins the school off with a 3 rating and then the school gets slammed in the press but nobody reports on the fact that you can't provide education on a shoestring.
 

Goldfish62

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Well, the name will be Northern Trains Ltd rather than Arriva Rail North.
Branding to stay Northern "for the time being".
Thank goodness we're not going to have the nonsense of a branding change just because the operator changes.
 

OhNoAPacer

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I haven't been so surprised at learning this since I found out that the Pope tended towards the beliefs and teachings of the Roman Catholic church and that Ukraine creatures had desires to use forested areas for defecation purposes.
 

Wombat

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Under the present UK law and EU rules, franchises must be competed for periodically.
Direct awards (which is effectively what OLR is given) to plug the gap between franchise competitions can last for 2 years.
That's why Virgin got 4 successive direct awards since 2012 on ICWC, and First Group are currently on the same sort of deal on GWR.
The stated intention on LNER is that it will be refranchised as East Coast Partnership sometime in the future.
However, EU rules won't count for much going forward, and the Williams review will generate new legislation which will change the UK rules.
But nominally, DfT has a couple of years with OLR before refranchising Northern.
Thank you for the clear explanation!
 

LAX54

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will it make any diference ? same trains, same staff same timetable...same issues !
 

td97

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The roll out of new trains that’s already begun under Northern will continue and Pacers will be banished very soon on the western side of the Pennines. In Yorkshire, Pacers will be gone by the spring and next year, we will move electric trains from elsewhere on the network to the north, boosting capacity for commuters into Manchester and Leeds.
Already announced as the Class 323s moving from WMT to Northern. Quite how they will improve capacity in Leeds is another question, unless the secretary also wishes to utilise the department's own stored 365s.
We will also be extending platforms at 30 stations on the Northern network to allow for longer trains.
Already announced in 2018 https://www.networkrail.co.uk/runni...orth-of-england-platform-extension-programme/. Of the 70, presumably ~30 are left.
We will also be making sure that every journey is made on a train fit for passengers: all Northern's trains will be deep-cleaned and we will review the cleaning pattern to make sure the first and last passengers travel on trains in the same condition
This is good news, Northern's trains can be the filthiest of filthy. Either strewn litter due to lack of daytime cleaning, or ingrained dirt in seats/panels/floor etc. due to not enough attention at depots. The exterior cleanliness of Northern's units is usually adequate though.
Over many months we have seen completely unacceptable numbers of cancellations on Sundays, affecting town centres, businesses, families and community groups. We understand this and I have therefore asked the public-sector operator to prioritise building on the recent agreement with ASLEF to improve the reliability of Sunday services and significantly reduce the number of cancellations.
The Secretary here misses out that the department, run by his predecessor, allowed Northern a quota to cancel services. And ARN did fix the Sunday issue, with the full timetabled service running on 26th Jan, with little fanfare (apart from the lack of announcements about the usual pre-planned cancellations).
In recent weeks there has been talk that things have picked up and in the short term future lots of new trains will be rolled out and that it makes it a very good time for the government to actually do something.
This month's performance is highest since June 2019.
will it make any diference ? same trains, same staff same timetable...same issues !
A "team of experts" with "long-term expertise" have all the answers
DfT OLR Holdings Limited said:
Q: Why will DOHL be able to deliver for passengers when Arriva couldn’t?
The initial priority for DOHL will be to stabilise performance in the region and restore reliability for customers. There are a number of ways we will work to achieve this. However, it is important to note that establishing an Operator of Last Resort does not remove the significant current challenges which the operator faces.
DOHL is led by a team of experts that has long-term experience in the railway and the necessary expertise to deliver change. DOHL is made up of the same team that has successfully led the transfer of Virgin Trains East Coast into public ownership as LNER in 2018.
Further updates on plans will be made when Arriva Rail North transfers to Northern Trains Limited on 1 March 2020.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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- the platforms on much of the network are not long enough to run longer trains.
The announcement mentions 30 stations that will see their platforms lengthened.
I think this is likely to be the current NR plan, but I've lost track of where these are and whether it makes a big difference to train lengths on particular services.
There never seems to be a consistent development policy across the TOCs and NR, and there's always a problematic station somewhere which doesn't fit.
 

LAX54

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It's like everyone shouting for GA to be stripped, the new 'owner' would take on the 755's / 745's and have all the same problems that GA have now, once they, well Stadler, sort out the issues, then GA will go back to how it was at the start, which, was on the whole not too bad at all !
 

scrapy

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Could Arriva choose to asset strip (eg remove some of its new ticket machines for use elsewhere, or similar)
or do things like cancel all further staff training for its remaining 5 weeks
The ticket machines are not owned by Arriva. They are owned and maintained by the supplier under a mansgement contract who take a commission.

They could cancel staff training but are probably financially incentivised not to.
 
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