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Northern franchise to end 1 March 2020 with Operator of Last Resort to take over

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TheSel

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To betray my somewhat strange sense of humour, when I first saw the term "Operator of Last Resort", I at once thought of the management team of Blackpool Pleasure Beach, as that is the last resort that I would ever visit voluntarily these days...:D

I had a similar thought. Anyone being made to provide the service to Cleethorpes, Bridlington, Scarborough, Morecambe and St-Annes-On-The-Sea must, by definition, be the Operator of Last Resorts!
 
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Bletchleyite

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I see Burnham is still on his "services must be cut" but when pressed for which services he suggests should be cut, he doesn't offer an answer.

Services will need to be cut - it seems to be recognised that 2tph will need removing from Castlefield, and there isn't really room for it at Victoria either. I don't blame him for not alienating whoever it ends up being until it's decided, to be honest.
 

Glenn1969

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Except that the reason Northern was in breach of its TSR was nearly all lines were promised enhancements. I hope long term these promises to the likes of the Atherton, Hazel Grove and Macclesfield lines as well as Calder Valley and York- Scarborough and Newcastle- Middlesbrough are able to be met. I also said I was willing to give Northern until 2025 and after the TRU to deliver on some of these improvements
 

Andyh82

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What's the betting that, when Northern are taken over by Northern Trains, Class 15x trains will be considered for replacement?
It could be a sweetener if they announced more new trains were going to be purchased.

The cynic in me just thinks they will announce things that are already in the pipeline already - infrastructure improvements that is already happening, vague plans to look at other infrastructure without any firm commitments, Sunday working in the North West that has already been agreed, an announcement that pacers will finally all be withdrawn, an announcement of all the 195/331s that aren’t already in service, an announcement of additional trains (769s/170 style units) that was already committed anyway. This will ensure the real issues can be ignored.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Services will need to be cut - it seems to be recognised that 2tph will need removing from Castlefield, and there isn't really room for it at Victoria either. I don't blame him for not alienating whoever it ends up being until it's decided, to be honest.
Surprised DofT didn't let Arriva take the rap for service reductions before installing OLR they will now have to fess up to reducing services
 

thenorthern

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I would imagine that during the period of Operator of Last Resort Northern services will be run ok but there won't be many improvements.

In the same way East Coast ran services well but it didn't really do anything special other than operate trains as normal.
 

CHAPS2034

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Re Reducing Services

This was agreed in principle some weeks ago at the TfN meeting in Leeds. There's a thread on here somewhere with a link to the video of the meeting. TfN are now discussing which services through Manchester will have to go.

Except that the reason Northern was in breach of its TSR was nearly all lines were promised enhancements.

As far as this is concerned, the original capacity planning for what would be allowed through Castlefield seems to have been well removed from reality. In this case if I understand correctly, it would be NR that set the initial parameters?
 

WesternLancer

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How many Northern trains needed a refurb / PRM? Maybe the budget isn't what East Midlands have.
There is a definite difference when you go to Nottingham / Derby. Even the bus shelters have dot matrix displays showing the arrival times of services. That's not something you see in Greater Manchester. Even rural Cornwall has them. Btw I'm only just in Derbyshire 3/4 mile and this is the poor under invested bit that's been tagged with Gtr Manchester.
Good points, but it's just political priorities. I recall when Nottm decided to invest in serious bus shelter technology at every stop (c 1999) the leader of the council coming along to a local community meeting where I live and saying the decrepit infrastructure for bus passengers was not good enough and he was going to do something about it - it got done! Manchester just chose to spend on soemthign else IMHO - it's possible to make these choices of course. Said leader didn't have a car - maybe that was what swung it...
 

158756

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I would imagine that during the period of Operator of Last Resort Northern services will be run ok but there won't be many improvements.

In the same way East Coast ran services well but it didn't really do anything special other than operate trains as normal.

This is what I expect as well - so all Arriva's unfulfilled promises will be forgotten, the additional 170s/equivalents won't happen, OLR won't apply any pressure for any infrastructure upgrades.
 

philthetube

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Lot of tory bashing on here, for example:-

The real test will be if the government can see beyond the franchise model and come up with a better way to manage the uk's overcrowded railways a situation which they caused by engineering rampant house price growth resulting vastly increased need for travel by all modes of transport

Loads of the housing price growth was while the last labour government was in power. This is actually an issue with no acceptable solution, enforce population reduction is the only way, you cannot keep on building long term.

It should be borne in mind that at least part of the problems have arisen because the current government were trying to sort something out, although they were not doing it very well, unlike the last labour government who sat back and did nothing.

Not saying that the tories are good, just that they are as bad as each other, I am not going to knoc what they are currently doing until results appear.
 

Meerkat

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Loads of the housing price growth was while the last labour government was in power. This is actually an issue with no acceptable solution, enforce population reduction is the only way, you cannot keep on building long term.
Not really for this thread but we don’t need to build huge numbers of houses - there isn’t a shortage of houses, there is shortage of houses to buy, as cheap money and low investment returns have created so much buy to let, driving up prices and forcing people to rent the houses they want to buy.
The trick required is to reduce BtL without crashing the market - we want the impossible of having cheaper houses without dropping our own house prices!
 

jfollows

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There's a good summary in the business section of today's Times which I quote below because it's behind a "paywall", I don't think it contradicts what many people are saying here but it's a better summary than most of the press elsewhere I think.

I stick to my belief that poor management, indeed the inability to manage, is a primary cause of the shambles we have today with Northern. Pushing ahead with changes with fingers in ears, not listening to warnings (many on this forum) and then blaming others all the time is not acceptable. The Arriva farewell statement continues in this vein.

And the point made is that there's a total lack of accountability in the rail industry. We, as passengers, are promised again and again that we'll get "jam tomorrow" if we just "put up with" the short-term disruption which is necessary in order to deliver the improvements. But we get the disruption with none of the improvements. Nobody ever "delivers" anything on time any more, instead we just get excuses after excuses. Something has to change, that is clear to me, but what and how is less clear.

BUSINESS COMMENTARY
BoJo gets a new loco for his train set

Alistair Osborne

Thursday January 30 2020, 12.01am, The Times

Who needs Jeremy Corbyn? It’s only seven weeks since the election and look at this: BoJo’s already renationalising the railways. He’s snaffled Northern Rail, a fine addition to the nation’s train set to go with the east coast line.

And, no, there weren’t a lot of other takers for the Arriva-run franchise — one as loco as they come, at least to judge by this week’s worst railway in Britain award from Transport Focus. No question the German-owned Arriva deserves a kicking. First for a daft bid. And then for Northern’s record of delays, strikes, driver shortages and timetabling clangers — or “years of dire performance”, as the passenger watchdog put it. Even so, it’s not as simple as that. Arriva’s made a fair job of the easier Chiltern franchise. And the latest derailment really says far more about the government’s clapped-out franchising system.

Go back to the contract award in December 2015 and there was enough hot air to recreate the golden age of steam. “Massive boost to rail services brings Northern Powerhouse to life” was the heading to the announcement, signed off by the then transport secretary Sir Patrick McLoughlin and the famous newspaper editor George Osborne. They spoke of how the award of Northern, plus the Transpennine services to FirstGroup, would deliver a “world class rail service”. By the end of its nine-year contract, Arriva would also have cut subsidies a year by “around £140 million”.

If only. The world-class railway was also dependent on the state-backed Network Rail delivering on promised upgrades. Instead the Bolton to Manchester electrification scheme arrived about two years late. And the Castleford corridor became a bottleneck after Arriva kept its vow to run more trains but without the extra track capacity required.

True, the Northern trains were late: partly Arriva’s fault, partly Spanish’s contractor CAF. But one reason taxpayer support to Northern is up year-on-year to £407 million is that it includes rebates for infrastructure delays. To boot, as on Go-Ahead’s Southern service, Northern was contractually obliged to introduce driver-only operated trains. Cue endless strikes, including 28 Saturdays on the trot.

Chris Burchell, Arriva’s UK trains chief, said “we wholeheartedly apologise”. But the group says it invested £600 million. And he can just about justify his remark: “largely because of external factors, the franchise plan had become undeliverable”.

But where you apportion blame is not the issue. As Sandy Needham, head of the West & North Yorkshire chamber of commerce, put it: “You can only run trains on tracks and timetables provided by Network Rail and the DFT [department for transport].” And, what’s clear lately “is the total lack of accountability within our rail network”.

It’s too much to expect the review by ex-BA boss Keith Williams to provide a quick fix, while Northern’s problems won’t be solved by a zippy London-Birmingham line planned with the first phase of HS2. And, meantime, the Transpennine and South Western franchises look perilously close to the buffers, as transport secretary Grant Shapps has hinted. Indeed, nationalise either of them and he’ll look a right fool. It was only in August that he handed their operator First Group another chance to goof up: this time on the west coast main line. Still, at least it’ll all keep Jezza happy.
 

Djgr

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Not really for this thread but we don’t need to build huge numbers of houses - there isn’t a shortage of houses, there is shortage of houses to buy, as cheap money and low investment returns have created so much buy to let, driving up prices and forcing people to rent the houses they want to buy.
The trick required is to reduce BtL without crashing the market - we want the impossible of having cheaper houses without dropping our own house prices!

Hmmm. I am not sure that what you write ties in with the basic laws of economics. Presumably you can provide some detailed logical rationale?
 

mpthomson

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Yep, but they could not do this before an election as it looked like they would have been adopting Mr Corbyn's policies. After having roundly defeated My Corbyn they can do it without that accusation - and look like they are being pragmatic or tough or whatever.

They couldn't have done it during any election campaign due to purdah. Given that the govt wanted a GE as soon as Boris got the leadership nothing was going to happen until after any GE had occurred (otherwise it would have been stopped by purdah anyway).
 

Meerkat

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Hmmm. I am not sure that what you write ties in with the basic laws of economics. Presumably you can provide some detailed logical rationale?
Demand and supply - the demand is driven by investment cash. That is what is driving up prices, not a shortage of housing (which is only actually a localised issue)
Various studies show that you could build unfeasible numbers of houses and still only make trivial reductions to prices.
 

mpthomson

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Those only apply if there is a "business".
This is why it does not apply in the case of the NHS etc.
If we have a state monopoly, operated on a non commercial basis, we are not required to have competition.

For example, if we operate transport as a public service with fares not expected to cover expenses inherently, then its fine.

My bold, it does apply in the NHS, I used to tender contracts for them and if over a certain amount (not much it was around £100k), then it had to go to open EU tender. Even defence isn't immune, it's only for those projects that have national security implications, hence why South Koreans built the last tranche of RFA ships and we have Belgian rifles, US trucks etc.
 

Alan2603

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I wonder if this ‘new’ northern will continue (or start on some lines) the much promised ‘northern connect’ services.

I have seen precious little of them (in fact none) on Middlesbrough to Newcastle services. Seems like they just throw any train that is available at it. As for ‘Advance fares’ no sign of them either.
 

Amaroussi

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The current operator’s logo seems to be a bad omen of how the Arriva franchise would turn out.
 

Djgr

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I wonder if this ‘new’ northern will continue (or start on some lines) the much promised ‘northern connect’ services.

I have seen precious little of them (in fact none) on Middlesbrough to Newcastle services. Seems like they just throw any train that is available at it. As for ‘Advance fares’ no sign of them either.

And Northern Connect sums up the issues with this TOC. Flowery promises made at the time of the franchise. A page buried on their website. And then nothing.

No updates on what is going on. No physical sign of this as a particular service type/subbrand. Nothing.

Note to TOC "You need to tell people what is happening, even if it is not what you would like to say". Northern have been hopeless at communication. And this HAS been in their hands.
 

HSTEd

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My bold, it does apply in the NHS, I used to tender contracts for them and if over a certain amount (not much it was around £100k), then it had to go to open EU tender. Even defence isn't immune, it's only for those projects that have national security implications, hence why South Koreans built the last tranche of RFA ships and we have Belgian rifles, US trucks etc.
They had to go to EU tender because they went out to tender.

If you don't put them out to tender WTO rules don't apply.
Which is why before the current insanity most NHs work was not carreid out under tendered contracts.

Also we have defence tenders going abroad because the Government chose to make them go abroad.
There is nothing in WTO rules that requires this.
For example, numerous countries in the world maintain state arsenal systems, even those have fallen out of vogue in the West.

Even if WTO rules did require it, the WTO is a dead letter anyway.
 
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ainsworth74

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As interesting as they are discussions around house prices and the intricacies of tendering rules are somewhat off-topic so I'm going to have to ask that we leave them there. If anyone would like to continue the discussion of those things they are welcome to do so but please start a new thread in General Discussion.

Thanks! :)
 

thenorthern

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How will the decision affect Pacer withdrawal? I am aware it won't mean that on 1st of March all Pacers will be withdrawn however it will be interesting to see what does happen.
 

TUC

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Not really for this thread but we don’t need to build huge numbers of houses - there isn’t a shortage of houses, there is shortage of houses to buy, as cheap money and low investment returns have created so much buy to let, driving up prices and forcing people to rent the houses they want to buy.
The trick required is to reduce BtL without crashing the market - we want the impossible of having cheaper houses without dropping our own house prices!
Conscious of not getting off-topic, but house prices are largely a south east issue, not one affecting Northern commuters,
 

TUC

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I wonder if this ‘new’ northern will continue (or start on some lines) the much promised ‘northern connect’ services.

I have seen precious little of them (in fact none) on Middlesbrough to Newcastle services. Seems like they just throw any train that is available at it.
That is one of the issues which are indicative of the feeling that, whatever the wider infrastructure problems, Northern really didn't have a clue. From a business and image perspective, there would have been clear benefits in being able to publicise that all the services on x line were now being operated by new trains. Instead, it just seemed completely haphazard what was used on any day.
 
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