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Northern franchise to end 1 March 2020 with Operator of Last Resort to take over

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R G NOW.

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Who is going to take over the running of northern. Am I right in thinking, that the government bosses will move into their offices and kick out the existing management. If so then I have come to realise there probably wont be much change to the trains only that they will run on time. I have seen many posts on this forum about people fed up with the service that it has led to the government to step in.
 
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Bayum

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Who is going to take over the running of northern. Am I right in thinking, that the government bosses will move into their offices and kick out the existing management. If so then I have come to realise there probably wont be much change to the trains only that they will run on time. I have seen many posts on this forum about people fed up with the service that it has led to the government to step in.
Oh I love how positive you seem...

How are the services going to be more punctual/run on time? Same stock, same drivers, same overcrowded capacity on each line...
 

R G NOW.

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Oh I love how positive you seem...

How are the services going to be more punctual/run on time? Same stock, same drivers, same overcrowded capacity on each line...
Maybe they will have to cut some services to longer intervals and couple two trains together to deal with the overcrowding issues.
 

Glenn1969

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I think short term they will have to cut some services if the politicians can agree which ones to cut from Castlefield
 

Bayum

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‘WE CARE ABOUT THE NORTH SO WE WILL TAKE NORTHERN BACK INTO PUBLIC OWNERSHIP”

Now that that’s over with, we will cut their train services too.

Anyone else hear the lead balloon?
 

hwl

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I think short term they will have to cut some services if the politicians can agree which ones to cut from Castlefield
Castlefield is about more than cutting services though - short trains, end door stock and narrow aisles/small vestibules are also part of the problem.
 

Bletchleyite

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Castlefield is about more than cutting services though - short trains, end door stock and narrow aisles/small vestibules are also part of the problem.

Short trains are the biggest problem because people have to wait to board and squash past people in the vestibules. Even with end doors, if the train is longer than it needs to be people will walk straight on. For instance, boarding of Pendolinos at MKC in the morning peak southbound takes no more than a minute or two because people just walk straight on and into the saloon where there are seats or failing that there's plenty of standing room so the doors aren't blocked.

Adding two coaches to the length of all trains on the corridor would make a huge difference.
 

Old Yard Dog

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But did Monty Python ever need a direct train from Lincoln to Kings Cross? :lol:

Why would they? At the beginning of a 1969 Monty Python sketch, reference is made to alien visitors coming "to conquer and destroy the very heart of civilisation, New Pudsey station" (now Northern rail)
 

158756

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Short trains are the biggest problem because people have to wait to board and squash past people in the vestibules. Even with end doors, if the train is longer than it needs to be people will walk straight on. For instance, boarding of Pendolinos at MKC in the morning peak southbound takes no more than a minute or two because people just walk straight on and into the saloon where there are seats or failing that there's plenty of standing room so the doors aren't blocked.

Adding two coaches to the length of all trains on the corridor would make a huge difference.

It'd also add millions to the already unsustainable subsidies though. The first job for OLR has to be to cut costs. If the staff count can't be reduced (and hence the number of services can't be reduced) the only obvious way to do that is to shorten trains.
 

HSTEd

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It'd also add millions to the already unsustainable subsidies though. The first job for OLR has to be to cut costs. If the staff count can't be reduced (and hence the number of services can't be reduced) the only obvious way to do that is to shorten trains.
Shortening trains doesn't meaningfully reduce costs if the number of services or staffing can't be reduced.

All you save is fuel and maintenance, which is negligible.
Lengthening trains cost money, but the ROSCOs will see you in court if you try to terminate stock leases early.

The only way to reduce losses I can see, if cutting services is verboten, is to try and grow revenue.
Lengthen the trains and advertise, maybe flood out yield managed advances, to try and cause an explosion in ridership.
 

Bletchleyite

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The first job for OLR has to be to cut costs

No, it doesn't, and nobody has said it does. The first job for the OLR is to stabilise the punctuality and reliability of the operation, and that has been explicitly announced, has it not?

The reason for service cuts is to achieve that, not save money. It might also save money but that's not the main reason for it.
 

158756

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Shortening trains doesn't meaningfully reduce costs if the number of services or staffing can't be reduced.

All you save is fuel and maintenance, which is negligible.
Lengthening trains cost money, but the ROSCOs will see you in court if you try to terminate stock leases early.

The only way to reduce losses I can see, if cutting services is verboten, is to try and grow revenue.
Lengthen the trains and advertise, maybe flood out yield managed advances, to try and cause an explosion in ridership.

Lengthening trains doesn't improve the financial position unless the extra capacity is filled with passengers paying more than the cost of providing it - that isn't going to happen with advance tickets or if the effect is just to reduce crowding. Given the way Northern loses money it might struggle to break even with any sort of tickets or however full the train is.
 

Bletchleyite

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Lengthening trains doesn't improve the financial position unless the extra capacity is filled with passengers paying more than the cost of providing it - that isn't going to happen with advance tickets or if the effect is just to reduce crowding. Given the way Northern loses money it might struggle to break even with any sort of tickets or however full the train is.

Once again, improving the financial position is NOT the initial priority.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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No, it doesn't, and nobody has said it does. The first job for the OLR is to stabilise the punctuality and reliability of the operation, and that has been explicitly announced, has it not?
The reason for service cuts is to achieve that, not save money. It might also save money but that's not the main reason for it.

The franchise failed as much for financial reasons as performance (ie Arriva could no longer fund the losses, much like Stagecoach/Virgin with VTEC).
So I'm sure cost reduction will be part of OLR's remit.
 

Mathew S

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The franchise failed as much for financial reasons as performance (ie Arriva could no longer fund the losses, much like Stagecoach/Virgin with VTEC).
So I'm sure cost reduction will be part of OLR's remit.
But that's because Arriva planned the finances on the basis of a load of infrastructure improvements that weren't delivered, new trains being introduced on time and, perhaps most significantly of all, no strikes.
Politically at least, from people I've spoken to, cost reduction isn't something that's even on the radar.
 

HSTEd

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Lengthening trains doesn't improve the financial position unless the extra capacity is filled with passengers paying more than the cost of providing it - that isn't going to happen with advance tickets or if the effect is just to reduce crowding. Given the way Northern loses money it might struggle to break even with any sort of tickets or however full the train is.

That depends on what type of rolling stock it is.
Certainly on electric services the marginal cost of increasing capacity is simply maintenance and electricity charges as we are flooded with EMUs.
These are a small fraction of the existing cost base, on Merseyrail (the only all electric Northern TOC) Electricity and Maintenance costs something like 20% of their total operating costs.

It seems likely that even if fares had to fall on electric routes, it would still net improve Northern's financial position.

We have lots of lying around EMUs at the moment, 319s and 365s as examples.
The leasing costs on them will be at or near zero as a result of them having no operational future.

This also makes it look like we should go to great lengths to eliminate diesel operations, even breaking services to allow this to occur.
 

Bletchleyite

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The franchise failed as much for financial reasons as performance (ie Arriva could no longer fund the losses, much like Stagecoach/Virgin with VTEC).
So I'm sure cost reduction will be part of OLR's remit.

I'm sure it will too, but the initial priority is to resolve the reliability issue, and shortening trains will not do that.

With regard to cost cutting, I would bet on a certain three hotly-debated letters starting with a D making a reappearance, as obviously any agreement with Arriva will be null and void on the ending of their franchise.
 

Staffordian

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With regard to cost cutting, I would bet on a certain three hotly-debated letters starting with a D making a reappearance, as obviously any agreement with Arriva will be null and void on the ending of their franchise.
Agreement between Arriva and whom ?
I had understood that apart from the franchise itself, any contracts, agreements, etc. entered into by Arriva Rail North with third parties (such as unions) would be carried over to the OLR.
 

Staffordian

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Commercial contracts will, but don't bet that the DaFT won't break a union agreement.
If that happens, then the Saturday strikes of 2018/19 will seem like a walk in the park !
But somehow, I think that Grant Shapps would go to any lengths to avoid generating any “Bring back Northern Rail” headlines.
 

Greybeard33

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The first job for the OLR is to stabilise the punctuality and reliability of the operation, and that has been explicitly announced, has it not?
Once again, improving the financial position is NOT the initial priority.
Grant Shapps' announcement, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/a-passenger-focused-railway, explicitly stated:
In January I announced that the Northern franchise was no longer financially sustainable and would only be able to continue for a small number of months. I am announcing today (29 January 2020) that from 1 March 2020 the Northern Rail franchise will be taken into public ownership and the government will begin operating services through the public-sector operator - the so-called operator of last resort.
So the main reason for the OLR takeover at this time is financial, not punctuality or reliability. It follows that DfT will have to increase the Northern subsidy levels above those agreed with ARN, and go cap in hand to the Treasury to obtain the increased funding. Although not stated publicly, it would be highly surprising if DfT did not set OLR the objective of increasing revenue and reducing costs, to drive down the subsidy year on year as Arriva originally promised.

The stuff in the announcement about improving services for passengers appears to be largely spin, re-announcing things that ARN was doing/planning anyway (rollout of new trains, withdrawing Pacers, cascading 323s from WMT, ASLEF agreement to improve the reliability of Sunday services). The only new things mentioned are deep-cleaning the trains and a review of cleaning patterns - hardly major expenditure!
 

Taunton

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Lengthening trains doesn't improve the financial position unless the extra capacity is filled with passengers paying more than the cost of providing it - that isn't going to happen with advance tickets or if the effect is just to reduce crowding. Given the way Northern loses money it might struggle to break even with any sort of tickets or however full the train is.
You know, to a non-rail observer, they wonder how, with trains full to busting, and with fares charged the highest in Europe, plus some hefty government subsidy already in place, however can they not at least break even. Just where does the money go?
 

bramling

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You know, to a non-rail observer, they wonder how, with trains full to busting, and with fares charged the highest in Europe, plus some hefty government subsidy already in place, however can they not at least break even. Just where does the money go?

Routes like Whitby don’t help - infrastucture and operating costs to support a handful of trips per day, not all of which load well especially in winter. Compare this with something like Thameslink where the infrastructure is generally far more effectively utilised.

On top of this, there are routes which are generally comparatively lightly used but which see a spike during the high peak, and for which considerable investment is necessary simply to provide capacity for a couple of trips per day for in some cases only a few miles. South-east is not quite the same as their peak lasts much longer, and once the infrastructure is provided many routes can quite readily fill entire 12-car trains over quite long distances.

Finally, people tend to see Northern services as overcrowded simply because many people naturally travel at popular times when others will be doing same. There are plenty of lightly loaded Northern services if one knows when and where to look.
 

Bletchleyite

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On top of this, there are routes which are generally comparatively lightly used but which see a spike during the high peak, and for which considerable investment is necessary simply to provide capacity for a couple of trips per day for in some cases only a few miles. South-east is not quite the same as their peak lasts much longer, and once the infrastructure is provided many routes can quite readily fill entire 12-car trains over quite long distances.

I think this isn't quite true - in the SE a lot of rolling stock (most of it relatively new) is sitting around between the peaks - take a look at Camden Bank at noon, for example - whereas in the North there's relatively little peak strengthening/frequency increases so there isn't that big cost.

Thameslink is a bit different due to the long fixed formations, but a 12-car at 2pm is going to be carrying a lot of fresh air.
 

bramling

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I think this isn't quite true - in the SE a lot of rolling stock (most of it relatively new) is sitting around between the peaks - take a look at Camden Bank at noon, for example - whereas in the North there's relatively little peak strengthening/frequency increases so there isn't that big cost.

Thameslink is a bit different due to the long fixed formations, but a 12-car at 2pm is going to be carrying a lot of fresh air.

I was more thinking about infrastructure, but even with the trains many of the SE trains which stable in between the peaks will manage two productive peak-flow trips, and between the peaks also allows an excellent opportunity for maintenance. Take the GN 365s as they are now - relatively low mileage, electric, 100% DOO, every single diagram stables at the country end overnight, and goes into the maintenance depot between the peaks.

For something like Northern one could be doubling or even trebling the fleet size just to provide capacity for one morning and one evening trip, perhaps for a section as short as Apperley Bridge to Leeds. Meanwhile GN might have a 12-car train with people standing Cambridge to London.

I’m not quite so familiar with the LNwR setup, but are your lines of trains in Camden sitting there because the operator is content to see people stand on 4-car trains during the daytime because they don’t want to pay the extra running costs?
 

Bletchleyite

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For something like Northern one could be doubling or even trebling the fleet size just to provide capacity for one morning and one evening trip, perhaps for a section as short as Apperley Bridge to Leeds. Meanwhile GN might have a 12-car train with people standing Cambridge to London.

True, but then for electric routes there is a glut of EMUs such that they are basically free (365s).
 
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