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Ireland General Election 2020

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Our Irish Cousins go to the polls on Saturday, with it set to be an extraordinary and political plate shifting result in sight.

Sinn Fein, who kissed and made up with the DUP last month and helped reform the Northern Ireland Executive, were IN THE LEAD, of the latest IPSOS Mori poll for Monday’s Irish Times and also led a party commissioned poll, for Survation yesterday too.

This is despite them only having 42 candidates across the country, when a majority in the Dail Eireann (Ireland's lower house) is 80 seats. There are 160 seats across 41 constituencies, with the Speaker automatically re-elected, meaning 159 are running to become Teachta Dala's (TD's)

It seems from indications, that Fianna Fail, who were swept out in a seismic defeat in 2011 and ended up in a distant 3rd place, are set to be the largest party, with ruling Fine Gael led by PM Leo Varadkar in danger themselves from going from largest party, to third biggest themselves.

Both FG and FF are centre right, with SF being centre left, whilst smaller parties including the Greens, Labour, Social Democrats and Solidarity-People Before Profit are all on the left, with a usually substantial bloc of Independents also being crucial to government formation deals too.

Any sort of result, that enables Sinn Fein to have seats around the cabinet table at Government Buildings and front bench places, in the Dail based at Leinster House, could be the start of real pressure for an Irish Unity referendum and thus this Saturday, will no doubt be watched extremely closely in all 4 UK capitals and Brussels.

Note, the Tipperary Constituency was thought to have postponed it's poll, due to an Independent candidate's death and probably won't have been held til Feb 29th, but lengthy legal related discussions have resulted in the green light being given on 5th February and means all 159 TDs will be elected.
 
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berneyarms

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A bit of a stretch to describe SF as “centre left” - this is a party that has always had as its aim the establishment of a socialist republic. Although I’m sure that “centre left” is the image that they’re trying to convey and which has certainly contributed to their position in the opinion polls.

I would say that they are very unlikely to be at the cabinet table as FF, FG and Labour have all ruled out going into government with them.

I don’t see any particular clamour here for a border poll in Ireland (apart from, predictably, SF) right now - quite simply put, the Irish economy could not afford the cost of taking on Northern Ireland. Domestic issues are far more important right now.

The main issues in Ireland are housing (including rents), health, education, pensions and the economy. SF are managing to push forward some lovely sounding ideas on these but with some very left wing economic policies to fund them.

Irish opinion polls and actual election results can be quite divergent from past experience - I’ll wait and see the results before predicting seismic changes just yet.
 

Cloud Strife

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I would say that they are very unlikely to be at the cabinet table as FF, FG and Labour have all ruled out going into government with them.

I could see FG using them to return to power if the mathematics dictated it, especially if the alternative is to rely on unreliable independents.
 

berneyarms

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I could see FG using them to return to power if the mathematics dictated it, especially if the alternative is to rely on unreliable independents.

You have to be kidding me.

They are diametrically opposite on the political spectrum.

Not a hope in hell of that happening.

To repeat - FG, FF and Labour have categorically ruled out going into government with SF.

It is not going to happen in this election.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Out of interest... one thing that's always puzzled me about Irish politics: Can anyone explain what the difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is in terms of general philosophy/policies/etc.?
 

Flying Snail

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Out of interest... one thing that's always puzzled me about Irish politics: Can anyone explain what the difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is in terms of general philosophy/policies/etc.?

It's a good question, FG would be considered more middle class and urban, the difference in ideology and policies is minimal, both are primarily corrupt trough feeders mostly out for themselves and their cronies. It is the biggest problem in Irish politics IMO that the realistic choice of government is two sides of the same coin that are only different parties because of their Irish Independence/Civil war history.

Personally I hate both, which I hate more really depends on which has been failing the country most recently, safe to say I wouldn't give them or their "independent" cohots a preference to save my life.

A big part of Sinn Fein's rise is they are increasingly seen as the only viable left leaning alternative to the two incumbents, Labour used to hold that position but have fallen back so far they only get seats through locally strong candidates in a handful of areas now.
 
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Mojo

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To repeat - FG, FF and Labour have categorically ruled out going into government with SF.
Although Varadkar has said they will! Now where have I heard such allegations like that before..!

Out of interest... one thing that's always puzzled me about Irish politics: Can anyone explain what the difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is in terms of general philosophy/policies/etc.?
It's quite an interesting one, because whilst perhaps one could compare to a liberal party (the traditional meaning of liberal, such as the reason for the heritage of why the Australian right wing party is called Liberal, rather than the more contemporary use of liberal which is used by Americans to mean left wing), they take slightly different sides of the coin on issues to what one might expect. For instance, whilst Fine Gael are more in favour of smaller government/lower taxes they are also probably more supportive of more things in terms of social reform.
 

berneyarms

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Although Varadkar has said they will! Now where have I heard such allegations like that before..

He has said no such thing.

FG is the complete opposite to SF.

The notion of those two parties going into government together is utterly ludicrous.

What Varadkar has said is that he’d be prepared to go into government with Fianna Fáil.
 

Mojo

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He has said no such thing.

FG is the complete opposite to SF.
Varadkar has claimed Fianna Fail (FF) would enter a coalition with Sinn Fein (SF). I never mentioned anything about a Fine Gael coalition with SF.

He said this in an interview with the Irish Times earlier this week (link to audio recording) which has been reported all over the internet including reports on reputable news sources. Fine Gael have also been paying for adverts claiming that FF would join SF in a coalition and posted an amusing video on Twitter earlier this week with various individuals in the party faithful making statements along the lines of "not a chance" which has lead to mischievous individuals putting their own captions on the clips <D
 

berneyarms

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Sorry I thought you meant Varadkar said his party (Fine Gael) would go into government with SF.

You didn’t make it clear that you were referring to his comments about Fianna Fáil either in your comment or the quote.

That was Leo frankly electioneering and I’d take it with a grain of salt.

Micheál Martin is leader of Fianna Fáil and he has categorically ruled out going into government with Sinn Féin. I don’t see him rowing back on that.

We are quite possibly in for a period of instability and another minority government to be honest.
 

berneyarms

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The DUP could be said to be the complete opposite of SF, (more so) yet they power-share in NI

Northern Ireland isn't a normal functioning democracy, let's be honest. It has a system of government where the all the main parties are sharing power together, with no functioning opposition. The two largest parties are pretty much forced into government together, otherwise it won't function.

Here in Ireland, we do have a normal system of government and parliament where parties can choose who they do and don't go into government with.
 

Arglwydd Golau

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Northern Ireland isn't a normal functioning democracy, let's be honest. It has a system of government where the all the main parties are sharing power together, with no functioning opposition. The two largest parties are pretty much forced into government together, otherwise it won't function.

Here in Ireland, we do have a normal system of government and parliament where parties can choose who they do and don't go into government with.

Well, there is some truth in that but for years they wouldn't have been seen in the same room together. It's not totally unusual for the two main parties in western democracies to come together in government,especially in a crisis.
Don't FG and FF have their origins in the Republican movement of Michael Collins?
 

berneyarms

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Well, there is some truth in that but for years they wouldn't have been seen in the same room together. It's not totally unusual for the two main parties in western democracies to come together in government,especially in a crisis.
Don't FG and FF have their origins in the Republican movement of Michael Collins?

I would be very confident that SF won't be one of the two main parties after the election. Nor will they be in government after this election.

You have to understand that:
1) They don't have enough candidates running to do it
2) With the Irish voting system of PR-STV, opinion polls give you a guide to first preferences, but it becomes really difficult to draw any conclusions from it with regard to how votes will transfer from one candidate to another if they are eliminated or elected, especially when you have many five seat constituencies.
3) The leaders of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour have categorically stated that their own parties will not go into government with Sinn Féin for a whole variety of reasons.
4) We aren't in a crisis in Ireland so I don't see why leaders would suddenly abandon red lines

Given our system of voting, there is still scope for an alternative that does not result in Sinn Féin either being in government or indeed being the official opposition.

A Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil government would be far more likely to happen in my view before either goes into power with Sinn Féin.

What you're suggesting is akin to the Conservatives going into bed with Momentum.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I would be very confident that SF won't be one of the two main parties after the election. Nor will they be in government after this election.

You have to understand that:
1) They don't have enough candidates running to do it
2) With the Irish voting system of PR-STV, opinion polls give you a guide to first preferences, but it becomes really difficult to draw any conclusions from it with regard to how votes will transfer from one candidate to another if they are eliminated or elected, especially when you have many five seat constituencies.

Those seem good points. To clarify point 2... In order to gain 2nd and 3rd preference votes, a party needs to be not particularly disliked by those voters who don't support it. Genuine question as I'm not that familiar with Irish politics: Would I be correct in thinking that SF's violent history means they are probably very much disliked by a lot of Irish voters, and therefore wouldn't gain many 2nd etc. preference votes?
 

berneyarms

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Those seem good points. To clarify point 2... In order to gain 2nd and 3rd preference votes, a party needs to be not particularly disliked by those voters who don't support it. Genuine question as I'm not that familiar with Irish politics: Would I be correct in thinking that SF's violent history means they are probably very much disliked by a lot of Irish voters, and therefore wouldn't gain many 2nd etc. preference votes?

The connection with the IRA would be a primary reason for many people to view them with deep suspicion, and the strenuous efforts by leading members of Sinn Féin to have the convicted murderers (members of the IRA) of a member of An Garda Síochána at a folied bank raid in Co. Limerick released under the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, claiming that this act of criminality was political will always rankle. It was a bank robbery and nothing more than that. Their inability to voice support for the Irish Special Criminal Court and the Offences against the State Acts (counter terrorism laws) doesn't help.

The fact that their overall aim has always been a socialist republic would be a second.

A third would be the rather sinister fact that all of their candidates in this election have had to sign up to a pledge to abide by the directions and instruction of the "Ard Comhairle" (ruling body) of Sinn Féin, who are senior republicans who are all unaccountable to anyone. That for me is unacceptable for any political party that wants to be in government.

Having said all that, they are trying to portray themselves as a potential governing party, by being a voice for change, and this is gaining traction with a lot of younger voters who aren't necessarily aware of the past and who are frustrated in particular by the lack of affordable housing especially around Dublin and are attracted by the promises offered by SF, and also in many working class areas, their traditional base. The former is what is giving them the bounce in the polls, but it will be fascinating to see how this pans out when the ballots are counted tomorrow.

The main business representative group IBEC has warned that their policies would have grave implications for the Irish economy, and they would also raise the highest tax rate in Ireland to 57% (it's currently 52%).

So to answer your question, it's a combination of things for many people.

I can see them getting into government eventually, but I don't think it'll happen this time.
 

hexagon789

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Out of interest... one thing that's always puzzled me about Irish politics: Can anyone explain what the difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is in terms of general philosophy/policies/etc.?

Quite difficult to define clearly, but an old politics of the world book I had (I think dated about 2003 or so), said that they were very similar the prime differences being economic policy.

Traditionally Fianna Fáil attracted the working classes more, with Fine Gael garnering support among the middle class. FF was more socially conservative however, while FG was more socially liberal. FF traditionally was more economically interventionalist, while FG favoured lower taxes.

All in all, it's not very clear cut. I would say that pre-1990s FF was to the right of FG, but these days those lines are very blurred.
 
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