Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

The Joker · 11 Feb 2020

In my opinion a disastrous day. The money could have been far better utilised by spending on a variety of infrastructure projects, particularly in the north, but also Wales and the South West which would benefit a huge number of people. What we have is a project with huge cost to benefit a small minority including all the City Centre property developers.
I haven’t read all the posts in this thread but I am still not exactly sure what the overriding business case is for HS2 - speed or capacity.
For the latter, yes there is an increase between the major cities but then any overcrowding on the WCML isn’t due to the many thousands travelling from Birmingham every morning is it?
Yes replacing faster services will give paths to other trains which can stop more often but since they will be slower the service will surely take longer and choice removed

RailUK Forums

The Ham · 11 Feb 2020

158756 said:
How many high speed lines in the world is that an accurate description of? It is my understanding that almost all the French network is reliant on ongoing subsidies.

Rail works best when it's serving density populated areas, HS2 are predicting that there'll be as many passengers on HS2 than the whole of the TGV network, even though the TGV network is about 3 times the size of HS2.

The Joker · 11 Feb 2020

miami said:
You won't, nor will people in Canterbury, Cambridge, Cardiff or Cambourne.

Phase 1 will benefit London, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry, Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Nuneaton, Tamworth, Stafford, Crewe, Manchester, Liverpool, North Wales, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Cumbria, Glasgow, Edinburgh, but will only very slightly affect Sheffield, Huddersfield and Leeds (slightly reduced pressure at New Street for cross country services)

And quite how is HS2 going to benefit Stafford, Tamworth, Nuneaton, Rugby etc. Currently I can get to Euston in 1 hour 15 minutes with London North Western. Presumably this journey time will lengthen when Hs2 is complete.
Also, just how are all the people wanting to use HS2 from Tamworth and Nuneaton going to get to Birmingham exactly. Services are currently struggling to cope with existing passenger numbers and there is a huge amount of housing development taking place and planned by Lichfield DC on the Tamworth border so the situation won’t improve soon

The Ham · 11 Feb 2020

ExRes said:
I very much hope you're right with your belief that the line will be profitable, hopefully investment can then be made in parts of the country that need it, although the cynic in me says that those profits will find their way elsewhere, share a thought though for people like Ron and Anne Ryall being thrown out of a house that has been in his family for 100 years, would you be so pro HS2 if that was your home?

Yes, I would. Why? As I know that all I need to do is put on a planning application for an extension (which is likely to be granted based on past planning applications locally to me) and it would increase the value of my property without having to do any of the building works. I'd then be able to buy a house which is nicer than my current home with a lot of the typical expenses covered.

herb21 · 11 Feb 2020

ExRes said:
The problem being, of course, that the UK hasn't got £840bn, it just increases debt

Therefore it would be like someone on £25k putting £3k on their credit card

Given the rates involved and the nature of investment,

It would be more like someone drawing down £200 a year from their mortgage over 15 years to pay for a further education opportunity that boosts their earning in perpetuity, if they could continue to earn for over 100 years.

So basically it would be close to free. And, comparing house hold and goverment spending in meaningless.

GRALISTAIR · 11 Feb 2020

The Ham said:
Rail works best when it's serving density populated areas, HS2 are predicting that there'll be as many passengers on HS2 than the whole of the TGV network, even though the TGV network is about 3 times the size of HS2.

This is an extremely important point imho. It is why rail doesn’t not really succeed in the USA too. OK the North East corridor and Chicago are OK. So it is the same with the UK. It is a small fairly densely packed population even compared to France so I suspect High Speed in general never mind HS2 will really benefit the UK even more than TGV network has benefited France. Time will tell of course.

Bald Rick · 11 Feb 2020

158756 said:
How many high speed lines in the world is that an accurate description of? It is my understanding that almost all the French network is reliant on ongoing subsidies.

SNCF Grands Voyages (The TGV division) made an operating profit of about £1bn in 2018.

The rest of the French Network is a basket case.

The Ham · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
In my opinion a disastrous day. The money could have been far better utilised by spending on a variety of infrastructure projects, particularly in the north, but also Wales and the South West which would benefit a huge number of people. What we have is a project with huge cost to benefit a small minority including all the City Centre property developers.
I haven’t read all the posts in this thread but I am still not exactly sure what the overriding business case is for HS2 - speed or capacity.
For the latter, yes there is an increase between the major cities but then any overcrowding on the WCML isn’t due to the many thousands travelling from Birmingham every morning is it?
Yes replacing faster services will give paths to other trains which can stop more often but since they will the be slower the service will surely become slower and choice removed

Given that you've not read all the other posts I'll explain a few key points, firstly capacity.

If we take 2009 as a base year with a figure of 100, by 2040 this was expected to reach 200, to be on track by 2018 this should have reached 125.

If you look up the proposal for Rail Package 2 it confirms the doubling of capacity, as that's what it would provide.

It actually reached 149, with some regions reaching 170.
View media item 3340
Next up improving existing railways. In the last decade we've spent ~£30bn on enhancements to the existing rail network, what difference had that made to many people? Probably not a lot.

However what it does show is that rail schemes are costly and that there's no cheap option.

Finally whilst most intercity services are likely to allow down that doesn't mean that all train services will. For instance is unlikely that the longer distance LNWR services will as they already call at most key stations and run at 110mph.

jfowkes · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
I haven’t read all the posts in this thread but I am still not exactly sure what the overriding business case is for HS2 - speed or capacity.

Both. Speed advantages for destinations north of Birmingham (e.g. my Nottingham-Leeds journey will be a lot quicker). The speed also means that HS2 can replace fast services on the WCML, MML and ECML with much less building than work to relieve all three lines seperately.

Capacity advantages because as you say, more services can fit onto the classic network.

The Joker said:
For the latter, yes there is an increase between the major cities but then any overcrowding on the WCML isn’t due to the many thousands travelling from Birmingham every morning is it?
Yes replacing faster services will give paths to other trains which can stop more often but since they will the be slower the service will surely become slower and choice removed

Some services might become slower, but they'll be more frequent and less crowded. I think a lot of commuters will happily accept that tradeoff.

Meole · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
In my opinion a disastrous day. The money could have been far better utilised by spending on a variety of infrastructure projects, particularly in the north, but also Wales and the South West which would benefit a huge number of people. What we have is a project with huge cost to benefit a small minority including all the City Centre property developers.
I haven’t read all the posts in this thread but I am still not exactly sure what the overriding business case is for HS2 - speed or capacity.
For the latter, yes there is an increase between the major cities but then any overcrowding on the WCML isn’t due to the many thousands travelling from Birmingham every morning is it?
Yes replacing faster services will give paths to other trains which can stop more often but since they will be slower the service will surely take longer and choice removed

As the Joker implies an alternative for the excess passengers travelling from Birmingham would be another motorway, an addition to the M40 and M1, this might involve less finance although the environmental impact could be much the same until electric vehicles are more widely used.

jfowkes · 11 Feb 2020

Meole said:
As the Joker implies an alternative for the excess passengers travelling from Birmingham would be another motorway, an addition to the M40 and M1, this might involve less finance although the environmental impact could be much the same until electric vehicles are more widely used.

The environmental impact of a six- or eight-lane motorway would be much greater than a two-track railway, by almost any measure, even with 100% electric car use. Land take, particulate pollution, congestion (all those cars have to go somewhere when they reach London), the impact of the manufacture and disposal of the cars themselves...

The Joker · 11 Feb 2020

The Ham said:
Given that you've not read all the other posts I'll explain a few key points, firstly capacity.

If we take 2009 as a base year with a figure of 100, by 2040 this was expected to reach 200, to be on track by 2018 this should have reached 125.

If you look up the proposal for Rail Package 2 it confirms the doubling of capacity, as that's what it would provide.

It actually reached 149, with some regions reaching 170.
View media item 3340
Next up improving existing railways. In the last decade we've spent ~£30bn on enhancements to the existing rail network, what difference had that made to many people? Probably not a lot.

However what it does show is that rail schemes are costly and that there's no cheap option.

Finally whilst most intercity services are likely to allow down that doesn't mean that all train services will. For instance is unlikely that the longer distance LNWR services will as they already call at most key stations and run at 110mph.

Ah but so the story goes one of the intended impacts is to “re-balance” the economy, the implication being reducing reliance on London. If this forecast is correct then in fact the opposite is true

HSTEd · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
And quite how is HS2 going to benefit Stafford, Tamworth, Nuneaton, Rugby etc. Currently I can get to Euston in 1 hour 15 minutes with London North Western. Presumably this journey time will lengthen when Hs2 is complete.
Also, just how are all the people wanting to use HS2 from Tamworth and Nuneaton going to get to Birmingham exactly. Services are currently struggling to cope with existing passenger numbers and there is a huge amount of housing development taking place and planned by Lichfield DC on the Tamworth border so the situation won’t improve soon

Why would we slow down London North Western trains?
The ICWC pathsa re the ones that get slowed down.

si404 · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
And quite how is HS2 going to benefit Stafford, Tamworth, Nuneaton, Rugby etc.

Double frequency to London and Crewe, better reliability. That sort of thing.

Currently I can get to Euston in 1 hour 15 minutes with London North Western. Presumably this journey time will lengthen when Hs2 is complete.

Why? What stops would be added, what slow-down might occur?

Additionally, Tamworth might return to having ICWC stops on top of the increased Trent Valley stopping service to London.

Also, just how are all the people wanting to use HS2 from Tamworth and Nuneaton going to get to Birmingham exactly. Services are currently struggling to cope with existing passenger numbers and there is a huge amount of housing development taking place and planned by Lichfield DC on the Tamworth border so the situation won’t improve soon

If only there was some sort of removal of the fast trains that travel through non-stop onto some sort of fast tracks, allowing the existing route to be used for trains that do stop. You know, like HS2 Phase 2b or whatever it ends up being called.

Instead of Tamworth having 2.5tph, there'd be 4tph - a near doubling even before you factor in potential Midlands Rail Hub improvements only possible post-HS2 (some of which might come in pre-phase 2).

The Joker · 11 Feb 2020

jfowkes said:
Both. Speed advantages for destinations north of Birmingham (e.g. my Nottingham-Leeds journey will be a lot quicker). The speed also means that HS2 can replace fast services on the WCML, MML and ECML with much less building than work to relieve all three lines seperately.

Capacity advantages because as you say, more services can fit onto the classic network.

Some services might become slower, but they'll be more frequent and less crowded. I think a lot of commuters will happily accept that tradeoff.

But surely this is is the point - HS2 could have been purely an infrastructure project to better connect northern cities.
The general assumption seems to be that everyone will choose to use HS2 when in fact that is not proven. I think the majority of people prefer to avoid changing trains if possible. I have commuted to New Street for 22 years and I wouldn’t even consider going to London via New Street (even if the direct journey time is extended, as is likely).

Ianno87 · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
In my opinion a disastrous day. The money could have been far better utilised by spending on a variety of infrastructure projects, particularly in the north, but also Wales and the South West which would benefit a huge number of people.

Nothing announced today stops any of that from happening, particularly as "the money" will be financed against the future returns on HS2. I.e. it's not money just sitting waiting to be used right now on anything. It only exists because HS2 exists.

What we have is a project with huge cost to benefit a small minority including all the City Centre property developers.

The whole country's economy benefits. What's wrong with making money through property development anyway? Provides jobs and growth doesn't it?

I haven’t read all the posts in this thread but I am still not exactly sure what the overriding business case is for HS2 - speed or capacity.

Both. Built for capacity, but speed as a side benefit. If you build a new line for capacity you may as well pay a little bit more and make it high speed.

For the latter, yes there is an increase between the major cities but then any overcrowding on the WCML isn’t due to the many thousands travelling from Birmingham every morning is it?

Well no, but its accommodating those Birmingham passengers that means there isn't enough capacity to cater for Milton Keynes etc properly.

Yes replacing faster services will give paths to other trains which can stop more often but since they will be slower the service will surely take longer and choice removed

No, still a choice. From Cambridge I can get a fast train to Kings Cross or pay less and get a slower (not that much slower) train to Liverpool Street. Chances are the residual Pendolino New Street-Euston might remain fairly quick anyway, with an International-Coventry-Rugby-MK-Watford stopping pattern.

jfowkes · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
But surely this is is the point - HS2 could have been purely an infrastructure project to better connect northern cities.

You still have to solve the problem of overcrowding on the WCML somehow as well. You could build a "classic" network in the north (for connectivity) and a high-speed avoiding line from Birmingham to London (to relive the WCML), but why should just London get the high speed services?

The Joker said:
The general assumption seems to be that everyone will choose to use HS2 when in fact that is not proven. I think the majority of people prefer to avoid changing trains if possible. I have commuted to New Street for 22 years and I wouldn’t even consider going to London via New Street (even if the direct journey time is extended, as is likely).

It's not as if the WCML expresses are empty now though. All those people will go onto HS2, getting out of the way of your LNW service.

camflyer · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
And quite how is HS2 going to benefit Stafford, Tamworth, Nuneaton, Rugby etc. Currently I can get to Euston in 1 hour 15 minutes with London North Western. Presumably this journey time will lengthen when Hs2 is complete.
Also, just how are all the people wanting to use HS2 from Tamworth and Nuneaton going to get to Birmingham exactly. Services are currently struggling to cope with existing passenger numbers and there is a huge amount of housing development taking place and planned by Lichfield DC on the Tamworth border so the situation won’t improve soon

HS2 will help by taking away express services from Birmingham New St which will free up capacity for more local and regional services. Despite the recent development of the station it is still at capacity.

sprunt · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
For the latter, yes there is an increase between the major cities but then any overcrowding on the WCML isn’t due to the many thousands travelling from Birmingham every morning is it?

It can't be completely disconnected from the 48 million and rising (up a steady 3m per year since 2014/15) people per year using New Street station, I'd imagine.

D365 · 11 Feb 2020

Meole said:
As the Joker implies an alternative for the excess passengers travelling from Birmingham would be another motorway, an addition to the M40 and M1, this might involve less finance although the environmental impact could be much the same until electric vehicles are more widely used.

A "HS2 motorway" would have the same environmental impact as HS2 rail? Pull the other one.

DynamicSpirit · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
And quite how is HS2 going to benefit Stafford, Tamworth, Nuneaton, Rugby etc. Currently I can get to Euston in 1 hour 15 minutes with London North Western. Presumably this journey time will lengthen when Hs2 is complete.

Gosh, you really haven't learned much about HS2 have you! All the places you mention stand to benefit hugely from having far more frequent stopping services - because the non-stop trains that currently fill up the WCML will move to HS2, freeing up paths for more stopping trains. The likelihood is therefore that those towns will see more frequent local commuter services, more frequent services to London, and better services (either direct or via connections at Crewe) to places like Manchester, Liverpool, etc.

The Joker said:
Also, just how are all the people wanting to use HS2 from Tamworth and Nuneaton going to get to Birmingham exactly. Services are currently struggling to cope with existing passenger numbers and there is a huge amount of housing development taking place and planned by Lichfield DC on the Tamworth border so the situation won’t improve soon

Well Tamworth (and btw Stafford) are likely to see their services to Birmingham become far less crowded because most of the long-distance passengers who are currently on those trains will be on HS2 instead. Stafford may also get some much faster services to Birmingham Curzon Street via HS2. Nuneaton-Birmingham I'll give you is unlikely to benefit significantly from HS2.

The Ham · 11 Feb 2020

D365 said:
A "HS2 motorway" would have the same environmental impact as HS2 rail? Pull the other one.

Indeed, the road would be much worse, not least as it's likely to continue to have petrol/diesel vehicles running on it for about 20 years, whilst HS2 rail will be all electric from day one.

Bald Rick · 11 Feb 2020

Very roughly, to provide similar passenger capacity to HS2,p (14tph, 1100 seats per train) a new motorway between London and the West Midlands would need to be 6 lanes wide each way, assuming an average of 2 people in each road vehicle.

Esker-pades · 11 Feb 2020

Bald Rick said:
Very roughly, to provide similar passenger capacity to HS2,p (14tph, 1100 seats per train) a new motorway between London and the West Midlands would need to be 6 lanes wide each way, assuming an average of 2 people in each road vehicle.

But we shouldn't be building new motorways. We should be investing in the existing road network. What's wrong with windy B-roads?

Bald Rick · 11 Feb 2020

FelixtheCat said:
But we shouldn't be building new motorways. We should be investing in the existing road network. What's wrong with windy B-roads?

Very good!

The Ham · 11 Feb 2020

The Joker said:
In my opinion a disastrous day. The money could have been far better utilised by spending on a variety of infrastructure projects, particularly in the north, but also Wales and the South West which would benefit a huge number of people. What we have is a project with huge cost to benefit a small minority including all the City Centre property developers.
I haven’t read all the posts in this thread but I am still not exactly sure what the overriding business case is for HS2 - speed or capacity.
For the latter, yes there is an increase between the major cities but then any overcrowding on the WCML isn’t due to the many thousands travelling from Birmingham every morning is it?
Yes replacing faster services will give paths to other trains which can stop more often but since they will be slower the service will surely take longer and choice removed

The annual usage between London and the West Midlands is broadly comparable to London to the North West, as such whilst Birmingham passenger numbers will be having an impact other passengers will be adding to that.

158756 · 11 Feb 2020

Bald Rick said:
SNCF Grands Voyages (The TGV division) made an operating profit of about £1bn in 2018.

The rest of the French Network is a basket case.

This is under an accounting system which works out SNCF as a whole to be profitable. In reality the French railways need more subsidy than ours. The profitability of any TGV line other than Paris -Lyon is highly dubious.

DynamicSpirit · 12 Feb 2020

FelixtheCat said:
But we shouldn't be building new motorways. We should be investing in the existing road network. What's wrong with windy B-roads?

Nothing really. Just that it's really hard to cycle along them if the wind is blowing against you.

Gadget88 · 12 Feb 2020

When will the HS2 stations be finished? I see they are working on them now

Peter Kelford · 12 Feb 2020

FelixtheCat said:
What's wrong with windy B-roads?

You need to turn not B-roads, but pot-hole-filled sub-standard A-roads into driveable routes so that drivers may divert from the motorways if necessary.

Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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