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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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6Gman

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The article I linked to said there were 37 houses subject to a HS2 CPO. Now maybe HS2 are intending to go all Kirsty Allsopp on us and do them up for rental, but I somehow doubt it.

Can you point to where exactly it says that 37 houses were subject to CPOs ? I can only find a reference to 37 houses being sold to HS2. No mention of CPOs.

I live close to the route of HS2. The offer from HS2 varies according to exactly where you live. There is a voluntary purchase scheme - perhaps that's what was involved ? Some (perhaps most) such properties will be resold.
 
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Tetchytyke

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That spending is Network Rail spending, so doesn't include the majority of the costs of Crossrail

True. Most Crossrail spending is not NR, but it is a couple of billion a year.

Can you point to where exactly it says that 37 houses were subject to CPOs ? I can only find a reference to 37 houses being sold to HS2.

That's right, I misinterpreted it as CPO, but why would HS2 buy property they don't need? Even taking into account contingencies, it seems a little odd.

Still, I'm going to withdraw from the thread now. Thank yu for your contributions, especially @ChiefPlanner @Bletchleyite and @Ianno87 . You've said things I hadn't considered and my opinion has softened although, fundamentally, I still don't think it's a good way to spend £110bn+. Halve that cost and you'd have persuaded me.
 

Sceptre

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Quite a bit of TfL’s funding woes is due to a mixture of Khan being boxed in by the fare freeze promise and political slap-fighting between opposing parties in Westminster and City Hall.
 

6Gman

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That's right, I misinterpreted it as CPO, but why would HS2 buy property they don't need? Even taking into account contingencies, it seems a little odd.

It's a PR thing. "You live near HS2 and you might find it hard to sell your house in the next 10 years while we are building it, so we will buy it off you at market valuation, and stand any loss on resale". To be fair it's quite common on projects of this nature.
 

Nagora

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Quite a bit of TfL’s funding woes is due to a mixture of Khan being boxed in by the fare freeze promise and political slap-fighting between opposing parties in Westminster and City Hall.
Yes - promising a fare freeze when the governor of the Bank of England is promising at least 2% inflation (because he has a big pension, so why should he care?) is a hiding to nothing.
 

Chester1

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The Canadian pension fund bought their 30-year lease on HS1 for about a quarter of what HS1 cost to build. Conveniently the lease runs out just as HS1 will need its first mid-life refurbishment.

HS1 cost £6.8bn to build and the 30 year lease was sold for £2.1bn. The lease requires the line is handed back at the same standard and track fees have recently been increased (after a battle with ORR) to pay for renewals. It wasn't a very good or bad deal for the taxpayer.
 

Bletchleyite

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Still, I'm going to withdraw from the thread now. Thank yu for your contributions, especially @ChiefPlanner @Bletchleyite and @Ianno87 . You've said things I hadn't considered and my opinion has softened although, fundamentally, I still don't think it's a good way to spend £110bn+. Halve that cost and you'd have persuaded me.

Fair enough, and thank you for your contributions as well, even if I don't necessarily agree with them. FWIW, I used to be anti-HS2 when I thought of it as "just getting to Birmingham 5 minutes quicker", and it's the relief of the south WCML that has convinced me.
 

Lucan

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I notice you snipped the comment about Swampy off. You know, that (in)famous road protester.
Sorry, I had no idea who or what Swampy was, so I removed that part of the quote as my point stood without it. Of course there have been protests against road building, but not in the same league as what we have against HS2.

Looking now for info on Swampy, his seems to have been a small protest group, and regarded as nuisances at best and crackpots at worst by the general public (don't get me wrong, I'd have been for him). That is very different from the widespread swell against HS2 - I've seen it on non-rail forums, where most comments are strongly anti-HS2.
 

si404

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Sorry, I had no idea who or what Swampy was, so I removed that part of the quote as my point stood without it. Of course there have been protests against road building, but not in the same league as what we have against HS2.
no Swampy is Premier League, HS2 protestors are Isthmian League. There's more of latter, and they have passion, but they are part-timers not very good at protesting (more the write angry letters/articles, challenge it in the courts, etc), whereas Swampy was a full time protestor who was able to massively hinder construction of anything he was a trying to stop via tunnelling under things.
 

Lucan

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Swampy was a full time protestor who was able to massively hinder construction of anything he was a trying to stop via tunnelling under things.
They haven't really started building HS2 yet, but protesters are occupying sites in its path full time already. They have been in Cubbington Wood for the last three months. We are going to see a lot of fireworks soon, so stock up with popcorn.
 

miami

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They haven't really started building HS2 yet, but protesters are occupying sites in its path full time already. They have been in Cubbington Wood for the last three months. We are going to see a lot of fireworks soon, so stock up with popcorn.

I do hope the funding for the removal, security, and delays, comes from the local council rather than national budgets
 

Peter Kelford

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You can fill the pot holes in, but that doesn’t make them any quicker, and as useage goes up the queues increase turning everyday into a nightmare for the local users....

When the M1 (the best equivalent there is) is closed, local roads become very saturated because there is no operational flexibility. If

Sorry, I had no idea who or what Swampy was...don't get me wrong, I'd have been for him... That is very different from the widespread swell against HS2 - I've seen it on non-rail forums, where most comments are strongly anti-HS2.

It seems interesting that the railway community (professionals and enthusiasts) seem generally to be pro or moderately against HS2, usually on cost-efficiency grounds (the Lord Berkely viewpoint, which I subscribe to). Outside of the railway community, there is a lot of criticism of things like 'knocking down houses'. Unfortunately, for change to be achieved, this is necessary, although it should, of course, be done on the smallest scale possible. Equally, spending money is required, but not up to 6x the cost per km.
 

nidave

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Most of that increase is because of Crossrail though, isn't it? Take the £1bn-£2bn for Crossrail out and it's much less clear cut.
So, in other words, you are picking and choosing things that support your narrative. Crossrail is new infrastructure is it not? Therefore it should be included as part of infrastructure spending.

Edit: I see above its excluded from NR figures, I would argure it should be included in the total of infrastructure spending for the UK as its new rails and a new line.
 

Carlisle

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'the likes of Dominic Cummings'
If the likes of Dominic Cummings believed the majority would prefer to see £106 billion ploughed into local busses, trams, trains, metros, cycle ways, roads etc, rather than HS2, he was almost certainly spot on, but given there was never likley to be sufficient time or will to develop a workable alternative strategy the govt felt could be easily sold to both the electorate & it’s own HS2 enthusiasts, it was never realistically a serious contender
 
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Mogster

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Sorry, I had no idea who or what Swampy was, so I removed that part of the quote as my point stood without it. Of course there have been protests against road building, but not in the same league as what we have against HS2.

Looking now for info on Swampy, his seems to have been a small protest group, and regarded as nuisances at best and crackpots at worst by the general public (don't get me wrong, I'd have been for him). That is very different from the widespread swell against HS2 - I've seen it on non-rail forums, where most comments are strongly anti-HS2.

Possible environmental protest disruption is one of the things that concerns me about the build. I’m not sure how attractive protesting against an electric mass transport system will be though although ER activists stopped the trams in Manchester and the tube in London.

This is the age of the internet. Relatively few people who are rabidly anti a subject can have a large voice by posting all day on as many sites as they can find. Google search for forums where your particular bete noir is discussed and let rip to your hearts desire, the internet is the perfect platform for the obsessed... You see the same characters posting on the same issues across many sites. Even if they use different names they are frequently betrayed by their posting style...
 

miami

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I'd hope the swampys would be heading to Essex to protest the destruction of 3.8ha per mile of ancient forest and a cost of £500m a mile to deliver 8000 petrol powered passengers an hour, rather than protesting £250m/mile, 0.16ha per mile, and delivering 18,000 electric passengers a mile.

Unless that destruction is fine if it's not in their back yard.
 

Aictos

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I'd hope the swampys would be heading to Essex to protest the destruction of 3.8ha per mile of ancient forest and a cost of £500m a mile to deliver 8000 petrol powered passengers an hour, rather than protesting £250m/mile, 0.16ha per mile, and delivering 18,000 electric passengers a mile.

Unless that destruction is fine if it's not in their back yard.

Nail on head!
 

Mogster

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A mate of mine is an RPI for Metrolink. ER staged a sit in in front of the trams in St Peter’s square, he attempted to discuss the reasoning behind their protest and disruption on environmental grounds of an electric mass public transport system. He was told to FO...
 

Aictos

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A mate of mine is an RPI for Metrolink. ER staged a sit in in front of the trams in St Peter’s square, he attempted to discuss the reasoning behind their protest and disruption on environmental grounds of an electric mass public transport system. He was told to FO...

And this is why I have no sympathy for them and also why they should pay for the policing costs and not the average taxpayer.

In any case, could HS2 be built and accepting passenger services ahead of schedule?
 

The Ham

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And this is why I have no sympathy for them and also why they should pay for the policing costs and not the average taxpayer.

In any case, could HS2 be built and accepting passenger services ahead of schedule?

In theory, if we're not having to have Euston open to start to run services likewise if we are just trying to get any trains running then there could still be ongoing works at Old Oak Common and Curzon Street, then it might be possible to start the 3tph between Birmingham and Old Oak Common a bit earlier.

However that would have to be planned for fairly early on.

Especially given that 3tph would only need a maximum of 3* operational platforms at each end. That's at most 1/2 the platforms at Old Oak Common in use at any one time.

* With 2 platforms it's a 30 minute turn around at that end and a 10 minute gap between departure and arrival of trains into each platform, which should be plenty, however 3 platforms would be a up to 50 minute turn around and would be operationally plenty of capacity.
 

sprunt

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Yes - promising a fare freeze when the governor of the Bank of England is promising at least 2% inflation (because he has a big pension, so why should he care?) is a hiding to nothing.

The 2% inflation target is not set by the governor of the Bank of England, it's imposed on him by government.
 

Meerkat

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Can the Lizzie Line accept whole 400m train’s worth of passengers?
Some would go West, some might get a GWR to Paddington, but most are going to get on the Lizzie as there are no other proper connections (it really needs a people mover to Willesden Junction and more platforms there....)
 

Mogster

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And this is why I have no sympathy for them and also why they should pay for the policing costs and not the average taxpayer.

In any case, could HS2 be built and accepting passenger services ahead of schedule?

I’m very happy things are progressing but there appears to be a massive amount of work do, scary stuff, lots of potential points of failure any of which could easily lead to years of delays it seems.

Have the TBMs been specified and ordered yet? I read somewhere the project needs 16 and capacity to build them is limited.
 

RLBH

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The 2% inflation target is not set by the governor of the Bank of England, it's imposed on him by government.
It's also a target to be achieved, not exceeded - they're required to keep inflation, measured by the Consumer Prices Index, between 1% and 3%. If the rate goes outside that band they have to explain how it happened and what they're going to do about it.
 

The Ham

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No, it needs to run to Euston as soon as is humanly possible.

Whilst this is true there could be something to be said for trying to run OOC to Birmingham (200m trains) services before any other services were possible.

Whilst it would still, probably, require the existing 3tph to/through Birmingham to be run, there would likely be a bit more space on them and could allow them to gain a stop on selected services of that was deemed suitable.

It could also lighten loadings on XC services between Reading and Birmingham. As although passengers from South of Reading are unlikely to use HS2, from Reading or from the Thames Valley (especially places like Slough) where it would mean 3tph rather than 2tph as well as a quicker journey time to Birmingham it could attract a reasonable number of passengers.
 

si404

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Can the Lizzie Line accept whole 400m train’s worth of passengers?
Yes. A whole train's worth can easily be absorbed. Class 345s hold more people than a 400m HS2 train (albeit via most of the capacity coming from standees) and Paddington terminators will be extended to OOC. The issue of capacity at OOC is how many 400m trains' worth of passengers can be absorbed by the Liz.

You'd also get inbound GWML passengers transferring there (easier than at Paddington).
And there's the problem of peak crowding: Reading trains will be squashed standing room only from Slough, Heathrow trains the same from Southall. OOC terminators are the only trains passengers heading into London in the am would be able to board.

Phase 1's full service is between 10-13 200m units an hour (depending on whether Birmingham trains double up)* - with phase 2 being more than double that 27-28 units per hour and there's only 12tph Lilac Liz Line due to terminate at OOC at peak times (10 off-peak).
Some would go West, some might get a GWR to Paddington, but most are going to get on the Lizzie as there are no other proper connections (it really needs a people mover to Willesden Junction and more platforms there....)
Indeed - hence why Euston is needed ASAP. It can cope with a slight delay and rethink and that to improve the , but they need to be rebuilding it again before the year is out - maybe next year if the rest of the line is running later.

The Liz is a single point of failure for onward travel, even if it copes with phase 1 traffic, it's really not a good idea to have it beyond a short initial period of maybe a year.

*this, of course, assumes there's room at 6 OOC platforms for 10tph to terminate. It's doable, especially as Euston is planned to be fairly quick turn around with the longer layovers at the north ends, but it's tight. Euston is probably required just to run the full phase 1 service.
 
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