Storm Dennis disruption 15th & 16th

londonmidland · 12 Feb 2020

Just an advanced warning for potential disruption this weekend due to Storm Dennis passing over the country.

The system will be slow moving which will result in high rainfall totals so flooding is likely. Especially as river levels will not have returned to their usual levels by the time it arrives.

Up to 60-80mm in just 24 hours over Wales, SW England and parts of Pennines and West Yorkshire.

Wind is not expected to be the main concern, although due to the very saturated ground, it may not take much to down trees. There will still be some noticeable gusts.

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Bantamzen · 12 Feb 2020

londonmidland said:
Just an advanced warning for potential disruption this weekend due to Storm Dennis passing over the country.

The system will be slow moving which will result in high rainfall totals so flooding is likely. Especially as river levels will not have returned to their usual levels by the time it arrives.

Up to 60-80mm in just 24 hours over Wales, SW England and parts of Pennines and West Yorkshire.

Wind is not expected to be the main concern, although due to the very saturated ground, it may not take much to down trees. There will still be some noticeable gusts.

More rain, great. The rivers flowing through West Yorkshire are only just getting back to non-flood risk levels. There was still some small amount of standing water between the tracks at Kirkstall Bridge yesterday afternoon, so it'll not take much for the Aire to tip over again. The same will be true for the Wharfe & Calder.

al78 · 12 Feb 2020

Even for my home town in the SE, the Met Office is forecasting it to start raining on Friday evening, and pretty much continue raining until Monday morning. This is following the full day of rain we got on Sunday just gone, and the rain that is forecast tomorrow. I hope this isn't the start of a run of weekends of crap weather, whilst I have to admire the sunshine from my office during the week.

Edders23 · 12 Feb 2020

I'm glad I live on the best managed river in the Uk it never seems to flood these days

As for the rest of the country I saw a few videos of the flooding in cumbria/irwell valley and yorkshire and they will have hardly had time to start drying out so i feel sorry for them having to endure more.

Unfortunately many of our railways were built alongside canals and along river valleys as these were the easiest routes to build on so flooding is inevitable with the resultant disruption modern stock can't go through a couple of feet of floodwater the way kettles could

I think some of the heritage railways have also been hit and for them it will be even harder to recover from

Bletchleyite · 12 Feb 2020

Not only is dredging needed, there also needs to be a rethink on building houses near rivers, moving instead to building blocks of flats and townhouses where the bottom floor is just car parking and is totally waterproof (e.g. a metal staircase up to the real "front door" inside). That way, drive the car somewhere safe when there's a warning, and hose it out once the river levels have dropped again.

6Gman · 12 Feb 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Not only is dredging needed, there also needs to be a rethink on building houses near rivers, moving instead to building blocks of flats and townhouses where the bottom floor is just car parking and is totally waterproof (e.g. a metal staircase up to the real "front door" inside). That way, drive the car somewhere safe when there's a warning, and hose it out once the river levels have dropped again.

Depends on individual circumstances. There are places where dredging would be a terrible option since it would simply move water to the next pinch-point more quickly.

al78 · 13 Feb 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Not only is dredging needed, there also needs to be a rethink on building houses near rivers, moving instead to building blocks of flats and townhouses where the bottom floor is just car parking and is totally waterproof (e.g. a metal staircase up to the real "front door" inside). That way, drive the car somewhere safe when there's a warning, and hose it out once the river levels have dropped again.

I believe they did that in places along the Mississippi after the very destructive flooding in 1993. Some homes were effectively built on strong stilts, the ground floor being a garage, and the ground floor walls were designed to break away when impacted by moving water. The contents of the house stay dry and the water has nothing to push against, so doesn't wash the house away.

https://theconstructor.org/building/flood-resistant-building-structures/21187/

RichJF · 13 Feb 2020

Landslide that appeared near East Grinstead before Storm Ciara has become much worse. Also advising further landslips may occur due to Storm Dennis at the weekend.
Line closed until the end of the month (according to Southern twitter).

hwl · 13 Feb 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Not only is dredging needed, there also needs to be a rethink on building houses near rivers, moving instead to building blocks of flats and townhouses where the bottom floor is just car parking and is totally waterproof (e.g. a metal staircase up to the real "front door" inside). That way, drive the car somewhere safe when there's a warning, and hose it out once the river levels have dropped again.

The EA hate dredging though as it is very expensive and they got rid of most of their teams to save money, hence huge amount of catch up needed. EA management is also now dominate by non water people as its remit has expanded.

footprints · 13 Feb 2020

Amber alerts for rain now issued for much of Wales and parts of England for Saturday and Sunday.

Samuel88 · 13 Feb 2020

Let’s hope the TOC’s actually step up their game after their poor handling of Storm Ciara...

DarloRich · 13 Feb 2020

I best get my big coat out. Southerns best start panic buying.

Samuel88 said:
Let’s hope the TOC’s actually step up their game after their poor handling of Storm Ciara...

Yes - I really wish they wouldn't listen to expert advice and take a safety first approach.......................

ainsworth74 · 13 Feb 2020

DarloRich said:
Yes - I really wish they wouldn't listen to expert advice and take a safety first approach.......................

You must have forgotten the memo that people are tired of experts butting in!

Deepgreen · 13 Feb 2020

footprints said:
Amber alerts for rain now issued for much of Wales and parts of England for Saturday and Sunday.

"Much of Wales"? The Amber alert for Wales covers quite a small area north of Cardiff - essentially the Valleys - about 20% of the country.

londonmidland · 13 Feb 2020

A message from Network Rail Wales & Borders warning of potential disruption to travel across Wales. Notice how “extremely heavy rainfall” has been used more than once in the message. Flooding is almost a certainty for parts of Wales.

“Following Storm Ciara last weekend, Storm Dennis is forecast to hit Britain this Saturday and Sunday.

Chris Pearce, Network Rail’s head of operations delivery for Wales and Borders and Martyn Brennan, Operations Director for Transport for Wales Rail, have issued the following advice:

“This Saturday will see Storm Dennis bringing winds of up to 60mph, extremely heavy rain and a potential flooding risk around our network.

“The safety of our customers and colleagues is our first priority and as a result there will be speed restrictions in place across our network, on Saturday, and some areas will see a reduced service running.

“We expect to see extremely heavy rainfall on areas already affected by Storm Ciara last week and are preparing extensively for this.

“We will be working closely together to keep our customers moving however, there are likely to be some short notice amendments on both Saturday and Sunday and we encourage all customers to check journey planning websites prior to travel.”

Original link here

43055 · 13 Feb 2020

londonmidland said:
A message from Network Rail Wales & Borders warning of potential disruption to travel across Wales. Notice how extremely heavy rainfall has been used more than once in the message. Flooding is almost a certainty for parts of Wales.

View attachment 73870

I wouldn't be surprised if most places get some sort of flooding happens. On the train home today all the rivers/streams were almost at bursting point.

duffield · 13 Feb 2020

In my part of the East Midlands the forecast seems to be for about 24 hours of torrential rain from 11am Saturday. The EVR (Ecclesbourne Valley Railway) has cancelled all its heritage services this weekend, but the GCR (Great Central Railway Loughbrough) is currently still showing as running.

I'm glad I live on top of a hill.

If EMR seem to be running a reasonable service on Saturday and the GCR don't shut down for the weekend, I may try to visit and support the GCR by turning up on a day where they might be running near empty trains.
I've been on the ELR (East Lancs Railway) during a downpour and it was - shall we say - 'interesting but a bit scary'.

londonmidland · 13 Feb 2020

National Rail Enquires have now included pretty much every TOC to warn of potential disruption this weekend. Pretty much Déjà vu to last weekend.

I assume details of alterations to services will be more specific and detailed as confidence grows.

Latest news available here

Cowley · 13 Feb 2020

We’re pretty well known for dry conditions here.
What could possibly go wrong...

randyrippley · 13 Feb 2020

Sounds a bit of a Menace

Skimpot flyer · 13 Feb 2020

Are y

randyrippley said:
Sounds a bit of a Menace

Bletchleyite · 13 Feb 2020

One assumes that they haven't bothered starting on fixing up the Conwy Valley yet because it's getting it again this weekend...hopefully the existing washouts will be adequate for the water to go through without any more forming.

Methinks it's going to be a bus for me come March!

randyrippley · 13 Feb 2020

Bletchleyite said:
One assumes that they haven't bothered starting on fixing up the Conwy Valley yet because it's getting it again this weekend...hopefully the existing washouts will be adequate for the water to go through without any more forming.

Methinks it's going to be a bus for me come March!

They should replace that line with a cablecar. Would be a heck of a tourist attraction, the views would be amazing

45107 · 13 Feb 2020

Samuel88 said:
Let’s hope the TOC’s actually step up their game after their poor handling of Storm Ciara...

Please enlighten us with your analysis TOC by TOC.

How did the TOCs fail ?
How could they ‘step up their game’ ?

Llanigraham · 13 Feb 2020

Having driven through the Upper Severn Valley on Tuesday, and today done the same journey by train, there has been no reduction in the flooding over those 2 days. Rivers are full to overflowing and the land is totally waterlogged. We had a period of very heavy rain last night which didn't help. The additional extreme rain forecast for the weekend is going to make the situation worse.

Samuel88 · 14 Feb 2020

45107 said:
Please enlighten us with your analysis TOC by TOC.

How did the TOCs fail ?
How could they ‘step up their game’ ?

For a starters by providing rail replacement buses, they know now where the railway will likely flood and they can’t use the excuse of ‘it’s too dangerous’ to run buses as National Express and Scottish Citylink ran a normal service during storm Ciara...

158756 · 14 Feb 2020

Samuel88 said:
For a starters by providing rail replacement buses, they know now where the railway will likely flood and they can’t use the excuse of ‘it’s too dangerous’ to run buses as National Express and Scottish Citylink ran a normal service during storm Ciara...

To be fair to the TOCs, wind damage is much less predictable than flooding, and generally railways are probably more susceptible to it than major roads are. But yes, thinking ahead to Storm Dennis, the railways should have a good understanding of where lines flood and what the chances are of a replacement bus getting through. BR certainly would have.

Bald Rick · 14 Feb 2020

158756 said:
To be fair to the TOCs, wind damage is much less predictable than flooding, and generally railways are probably more susceptible to it than major roads are. But yes, thinking ahead to Storm Dennis, the railways should have a good understanding of where lines flood and what the chances are of a replacement bus getting through. BR certainly would have.

Flooding depends very much about where and how much it rains. Some sites are frequent offenders, many others aren’t. Same applies to earthwork failures.

Bletchleyite · 14 Feb 2020

Samuel88 said:
For a starters by providing rail replacement buses, they know now where the railway will likely flood and they can’t use the excuse of ‘it’s too dangerous’ to run buses as National Express and Scottish Citylink ran a normal service during storm Ciara...

There will have been places they couldn't - I got a lift from Ambleside to Lancaster on Sunday last week and there was at several locations a bit of a feeling of "we're among the last few out until tomorrow" - this was via back roads as the main roads were shut in several places. So buses for say the Windermere branch might have been out of the question, but I could see no reason why buses couldn't have operated from Carlisle to Preston via the M6, even if slightly esoteric routes were needed in some of the towns.

There was a definite feeling of "weather gives us an official get-out so we're taking it" rather than there being a risk assessment of individual routes carried out. Notably Stagecoach were operating the 40 from Lancaster to Preston without difficulties (I looked online and services were being tracked and were near enough on time).

mpthomson · 14 Feb 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Not only is dredging needed, there also needs to be a rethink on building houses near rivers, moving instead to building blocks of flats and townhouses where the bottom floor is just car parking and is totally waterproof (e.g. a metal staircase up to the real "front door" inside). That way, drive the car somewhere safe when there's a warning, and hose it out once the river levels have dropped again.

Dredging is not necessarily the answer to flooding, it just moves the flood somewhere else in many cases.

Storm Dennis disruption 15th & 16th

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