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Storm Dennis disruption 15th & 16th

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iantherev

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The flooding near Carlisle last week seemed predictable, low lying area etc, Shap is more surprising, unless there is an odd dip I can't recall.

Perhaps Network Rail should be required to have a 'climate change resilience' plan for the railway, with a programme of works to harden the railways against flooding and high tides. I presume the wind risk is more foreign objects getting blown onto the tracks than trains being blown over as the Forth Bridge manages fine without wind shielding whereas the Road Bridges require that (or close).

Can be as simple as rain running straight off saturated fields - we can’t get out of our back door at the moment because of this.
 
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sd0733

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We made it from Euston to Craven Arms albeit 50 minutes late. However the delay was because of no driver at Crewe not the weather.

However the line between Hereford and Newport seems to be shut or seriously disrupted because of flooding.

If that was the 1408 off Crewe the lack of driver was caused by the weather the Cardiff driver to take it was over an hour late into Crewe to work back.

Newport to Hereford is now also closed to buses, with Cwmbran, Pontypool and Abergavenny stations inaccessible due to flooding and bus drivers not taking coaches through as they assess it a risk to life.
 

Peregrine 4903

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If that was the 1408 off Crewe the lack of driver was caused by the weather the Cardiff driver to take it was over an hour late into Crewe to work back.

Newport to Hereford is now also closed to buses, with Cwmbran, Pontypool and Abergavenny stations inaccessible due to flooding and bus drivers not taking coaches through as they assess it a risk to life.

Yes it was the 1408 off Crewe. Thankyou for your response.

Gosh the flooding sounds awful between Hereford and Newport, luckily it isn't too bad around Craven Arms
 

QueensCurve

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One assumes that they haven't bothered starting on fixing up the Conwy Valley yet because it's getting it again this weekend...hopefully the existing washouts will be adequate for the water to go through without any more forming.

Methinks it's going to be a bus for me come March!

The Conwy valley line really isn't very robust. Granted it may be a bit of a Cinderella route. If it is to be kept open and developed it needs some sort of major works to keep it in service.
 

Robertj21a

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If that was the 1408 off Crewe the lack of driver was caused by the weather the Cardiff driver to take it was over an hour late into Crewe to work back.

Newport to Hereford is now also closed to buses, with Cwmbran, Pontypool and Abergavenny stations inaccessible due to flooding and bus drivers not taking coaches through as they assess it a risk to life.

Good for those coach drivers. Common sense should always prevail.
 

matacaster

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Completely agree. Even if we work on the basis that buses do run, I find it surprising people would actually want to travel on one. I certainly wouldn't.

Last Sunday was hair-raising enough going in on the back end of a 12-car train doing less than 50 mph, I really wouldn't want to be on a bus, and far less in a taxi.

The good people of Bradford would likely consider that being hit by a tree is far less likely than the fear of an accident in an everyday taxi ride.
 

PHILIPE

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The Conwy valley line really isn't very robust. Granted it may be a bit of a Cinderella route. If it is to be kept open and developed it needs some sort of major works to keep it in service.

It was closed for a couple of months in the Autumn for major works.
 

mmh

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The Conwy valley line really isn't very robust. Granted it may be a bit of a Cinderella route. If it is to be kept open and developed it needs some sort of major works to keep it in service.

The railway doesn't exist in isolation in the Conwy Valley though, flood defence works overall have been pitiful for many years. See last weekend's awful flooding in Llanrwst. That's after expensive work; the rumour locally is that the council didn't clear new culverts. They made an announcement that they were clearing them this week. Too little, too late.

Nearby, Llanfair TH has been repeatedly badly flooded despite expensive works, and residents are understandably not happy at all. Too many of these works appear to be expensive lipservice.

Ironically, one of the reasons the Conwy Valley line is so prone to flooding is due to the railway itself. Conwy Cob (the causeway carrying the railway and road between Llandudno Junction and Conwy) massively restricts the mouth of the river from what it naturally would be. It pre-dates the railway of course, but its permanent existence was set in stone when the railway came along and joined the road.
 

philthetube

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I'd like to be able to get to either Plymouth or Cardiff today, but with travel advice being a blanket "it's not unsafe enough that we'll cancel trains, but we don't have a clue if or when they'll arrive, just check when it's too late to be useful" isn't inspiring any confidence at all. Was same issue last week trying to get across to Sheffield from Manchester on the Sunday, if I knew the TPE via Huddersfield was only going to be 50 late I'd have gone for it

We would all love to know things like this but without a direct line upstairs there is no chance
 

Essexman

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GWR now saying line closed tomorrow between Exeter and Taunton & Barnstaple. Limited diversions to London via Yeovil but that too subject to potential flooding.
 

AndrewE

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Oh dear! That sounds like Cowley Bridge Jct is still vulnerable...
 

Kite159

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GWR now saying line closed tomorrow between Exeter and Taunton & Barnstaple. Limited diversions to London via Yeovil but that too subject to potential flooding.

I believe the railway has some flooding at Crewkerne, certainly looking at the SWR journey check has all the Exeter services being turned around at Yeovil.
 

jtuk

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We would all love to know things like this but without a direct line upstairs there is no chance

It is surely not outside of the realms of possibility to work out how long a journey will now take on account of known speed restrictions etc, weather forecasting is actually pretty decent now given a 24-48 hour lead time.

If I'd have gone for my initial plan of Plymouth I'd have got in a mere 20 late, and be on my way back 40 late with a nice delay repay claim to XC as a result, which would have been infinitely preferable to my alternative plan
 

philthetube

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Weather forecasting will not tell you if a river will be 10 or 11 feet above normal, which can be the difference between an open or closed line, nor will it tell you if some donkey hasn't secured a trampoline.
 

Chingy

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Just wondering if anyone has any early info on the severity of flooding on the Marches line as I'm due to travel from Newport to Crewe on Monday?
 

jtuk

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Weather forecasting will not tell you if a river will be 10 or 11 feet above normal, which can be the difference between an open or closed line

So I guess the yellow/amber/red/cancel everything levels of weather warnings they have in relation to potential flooding are in no way related to the probability that a given river will reach a certain height and cause disruption, and it's just someone in a bunker guessing things
 

PHILIPE

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Just wondering if anyone has any early info on the severity of flooding on the Marches line as I'm due to travel from Newport to Crewe on Monday?

With more rain to come the answer would have to be "how long is a piece of string" at this moment. There is the risk of track damage leading to closure after the waters have gone down.
 

bramling

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So I guess the yellow/amber/red/cancel everything levels of weather warnings they have in relation to potential flooding are in no way related to the probability that a given river will reach a certain height and cause disruption, and it's just someone in a bunker guessing things

Surely it’s a bit like the daily forecasts they give that suggest whether it’s likely to be sunny, cloudy or rainy in a given location at a given time. In other words it’s an indication of what might happen, but shouldn’t be taken as gospel.

I think people in general over-estimate the ability to accurately predict weather down to fine levels.

(And, yes, I’m the first to moan when on holiday and a forecasted fine day turns out not to be so in reality, but it’s just a fact of life.)

So far Storm Dennis has turned out to be quite benign in the London area. My thoughts are with those for whom things aren’t turning out so fortunate.
 

londonmidland

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For a lot of us, the heaviest of the rain we’ll experience from this storm, is now approaching from the West/South West and is heading North East.

Unlike earlier, which was more localised in nature, this is more of a larger, broader area of heavy precipitation which will affect a large area of England and Wales.
 

Mugby

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Trains from Leicester to Birmingham were terminating at Nuneaton from early evening 'due to high winds' but trains from Derby to Birmingham seemed to be ok, so the high winds must have been between Nuneaton and Water Orton only.
 

londonmidland

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Trains from Leicester to Birmingham were terminating at Nuneaton from early evening 'due to high winds' but trains from Derby to Birmingham seemed to be ok, so the high winds must have been between Nuneaton and Water Orton only.

There was a tree blocking the line between Nuneaton and Coleshill.
 

al78

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Surely it’s a bit like the daily forecasts they give that suggest whether it’s likely to be sunny, cloudy or rainy in a given location at a given time. In other words it’s an indication of what might happen, but shouldn’t be taken as gospel.

I think people in general over-estimate the ability to accurately predict weather down to fine levels.

(And, yes, I’m the first to moan when on holiday and a forecasted fine day turns out not to be so in reality, but it’s just a fact of life.)

So far Storm Dennis has turned out to be quite benign in the London area. My thoughts are with those for whom things aren’t turning out so fortunate.

The forecast can be interpreted as a most likely outcome, but with any forecast, there is a probability distribution, the outcomes further away from the forecast having lower probability. There do exist flood forecast models which are used by the Envioronment Agency, amongst others, do transport companies like Network Rail have direct access to these models, or do they get their information from a third party who uses these models?

Bear in mind we still have another 24 hours before this is over, and Sunday looks like a soaker in the SE for most of the day, so we are not out of the woods yet, although it looks like the SE in general has escaped the worst. Wales and western parts of England look to have been really hammered with rain, and they have also got Sunday's rain to come.
 

sd0733

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The Shrewsbury to Newport route is now shown as closed for the whole of today as a minimum due to flooding at various points on the route.
 

Edders23

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Completely agree. Even if we work on the basis that buses do run, I find it surprising people would actually want to travel on one. I certainly wouldn't.

Last Sunday was hair-raising enough going in on the back end of a 12-car train doing less than 50 mph, I really wouldn't want to be on a bus, and far less in a taxi.

Those of us who are professional hackney drivers find that remark offensive (unless you are referring to uber drivers :lol:)
 

Edders23

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At this rate the news crews won't have enough cameras to record it all and we might need the disasters emergency appeal to launch an appeal to help uk flood victims I think there will be a few homeless people after the weekend in a lot of areas

These two storms combined are really taking their toll on housing, infrastructure and farming

I wonder just how much of a service the railways will be able to run on monday although it is half term on monday which means a lot will be off work
 

30907

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The Shrewsbury to Newport route is now shown as closed for the whole of today as a minimum due to flooding at various points on the route.
On the NRE disruption page there is also this wonderful information :)
Fishguard Harbour and Holyhead
Heavy rain is flooding the railway between Fishguard Harbour and Holyhead means some lines are blocked. Trains may be cancelled, delayed or revised.
 

sd0733

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On the NRE disruption page there is also this wonderful information :)

That's pretty much the info traincrew have had too! There is now a bit more info coming through. The latest blocks are:
Pontrillas- total washout with track suspended in mid air
Caersws-machynnleth- blocked due to water level
Gobowen-Wrexham- blocked due to water flowing on the track
Cwmbran-Avergavenny- flooded and currently blocked as pway struggling to attend with flooding on local roads
Ebbw Vale- flooded at Llanhilleth
Abercynon to Aberdare-flooded at various places
Swansea District- flooded at Llangyfelach aqueduct
Pontypridd to Treherbert- flooding at Porth station
Heart of Wales-flooding at Knighton
 
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