Capacity between Newton Abbott and Exeter St Davids

cn16gpt · 3 Mar 2020

Hello,
I'm writing my thesis on rising sea levels and coastal infrastructure. I wonder if anyone knows the capacity of the line between Newton Abbott and Exeter St Davids (i.e. number of trains per day plus capacity of each train)? If anyone knows this, or has any tips as to how I can calculate this I'd love to hear from you. And if you could let me know how you did the calculation/the source that would be great too.

EDIT: I'm not sure if I've posted this on the right thread - advice on that also welcome

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GRALISTAIR · 3 Mar 2020

Welcome to the Forum. I will see what I can find out for you.

cn16gpt · 3 Mar 2020

GRALISTAIR said:
Welcome to the Forum. I will see what I can find out for you.

thank you!!

The Planner · 3 Mar 2020

Is this the capacity of what is running now, or the theoretical capacity? the headway changes at Newton Abbot, 4 minutes north of the there, 6 minutes south.

cn16gpt · 3 Mar 2020

The Planner said:
Is this the capacity of what is running now, or the theoretical capacity? the headway changes at Newton Abbot, 4 minutes north of the there, 6 minutes south.

Probably looking at the theoretical capacity. The stations of interest are Dawlish and Teignmouth - I want to know how many people can theoretically get the train through these stations.

Taunton · 3 Mar 2020

cn16gpt said:
I'm writing my thesis on rising sea levels and coastal infrastructure.

Before getting too carried away with accounts of the sea at Dawlish rising like the tidal wave from Krakatoa, have a look at this image of storm damage there in the year 1855, 160 years ago. There have been several comparable sea penetrations there in the intervening time. It's always been an issue.

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/waves-smash-train-windows-at-dawlish.198525/page-2#post-4389250

cn16gpt · 3 Mar 2020

Taunton said:
Before getting too carried away with accounts of the sea at Dawlish rising like the tidal wave from Krakatoa, have a look at this image of storm damage there in the year 1855, 160 years ago. There have been several comparable sea penetrations there in the intervening time. It's always been an issue.

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/waves-smash-train-windows-at-dawlish.198525/page-2#post-4389250

amazing photo! I'm aware it's been a long standing issue though

I'm looking at the option analysis network rail did a couple of years ago on the line and comparing it with theoretical UKCP projections. Going to be pretty interesting I hope.

jayah · 3 Mar 2020

cn16gpt said:
Probably looking at the theoretical capacity. The stations of interest are Dawlish and Teignmouth - I want to know how many people can theoretically get the train through these stations.

Theoretically a 9 car IET has about 650 seats and a fair few standing every 4mins, in each direction. But every train stopping reduces that while a 4min frequency also seems to dictate every other train will either go towards Paignton or end at Newton Abbot.

In practice it is more like one 650 seat IET, one 300 seat Voyager and two 130 seat DMUs each way per hour.

Dr Hoo · 3 Mar 2020

Plus a need to leave some capacity for freight, engineering ('ballast') trains, railhead treatment, inspection trains, transit moves by engineering plant, etc. on a single mixed traffic route.

yorkie · 3 Mar 2020

cn16gpt said:
Probably looking at the theoretical capacity. The stations of interest are Dawlish and Teignmouth - I want to know how many people can theoretically get the train through these stations.

How theoretical? Do you mean how many seats are currently provided? Or how many people could physically fit on the (existing) trains?

Or do you mean the absolute theoretical, yet totally impractical, maximum if all trains operated the exact same stopping pattern and operated at minimum headways?

As the question is undefined and open to interpretation, we can't begin to answer it at this stage.

6Gman · 3 Mar 2020

cn16gpt said:
Hello,
I'm writing my thesis on rising sea levels and coastal infrastructure. I wonder if anyone knows the capacity of the line between Newton Abbott and Exeter St Davids (i.e. number of trains per day plus capacity of each train)? If anyone knows this, or has any tips as to how I can calculate this I'd love to hear from you. And if you could let me know how you did the calculation/the source that would be great too.

EDIT: I'm not sure if I've posted this on the right thread - advice on that also welcome

A difficult one. If the theoretical headway is 4 minutes then 15 (paths per hour) x 24 x capacity of the biggest train achievable.

Which would be huge!

BUT, this is restricted by:
1. Stopping patterns;
2. Different performance patterns (e.g. top speed and acceleration);
3. Need for leeway for performance recovery;
4. Different train types (your London-Plymouth might need to be 9 or 10 coaches; the Exmouth-Paignton stopper rather shorter);

and numerous other things I can't recall off-hand.

alangla · 4 Mar 2020

Given the OP is studying climate and weather effects, capacity with the bi-di in use might be interesting- that’s going to be a fraction of normal capacity, even with flighting of groups of trains

Envoy · 4 Mar 2020

I take it that you are aware of how to find what & when trains pass through via this site? https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/DWL/2020-03-04/1034?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

It would obviously be of benefit to the south-west to have a new direct line from just south of Exeter to Newton-Abbot which would speed up services. Of course, it would not be easy to find a route that could get through the hills. The coast line could then be left with local stopping trains.

The Planner · 4 Mar 2020

Dr Hoo said:
Plus a need to leave some capacity for freight

possibly a train per hour

engineering ('ballast') trains, railhead treatment, inspection trains, transit moves by engineering plant, etc. on a single mixed traffic route.

Love your optimism, they have to fit around everything else normally (though the NMT tends to get WTT paths)

randyrippley · 5 Mar 2020

Interesting thought as to whether the current capacity matches the historic...…..
I spent a summer week in Dawlish in the early 1970s, and trains seemed to be every four minutes or so, something like 98% passenger services during the day. A few DMUs, but mostly type-4 hauled plus 10 (or more)

cn16gpt · 7 Mar 2020

Thanks for everyone's replies! I will try to comment on what you've brought up and be a little more specific:
Theoretically, if every train passing through was filled to capacity (I'm guessing there is a legal capacity amounting to more than just the train seats but not just as many people packed in as possible), and trains for engineering/maintenance reasons were completely ignored, how many people could travel on this route per day. I started researching a little bit, but as @6Gman said, there are different types of trains that pass through here, so it will be more than just a simple calculation of no. of trains x capacity. I think @jayah has a good starting point by knowing which trains pass through every hour (although I'm assuming this will change at night/on sundays etc).
Another aspect I would like to investigate is the potential for increase on the line. Say commuter population were to double, how would the rail company handle this? How easy would it be to implement extra carriages/extra services on the line before it literally gets too full up.

Thank you also to @Envoy for linking the website - looks very useful!

30907 · 7 Mar 2020

So: the theoretical capacity is 15 trains per hour non stop.
A train calling at Dawlish AND Teignmouth probably requires 6 minutes, so alternating these with non stops gives you about 8 tph.
However if trains served one or the other, you would potentially get 12tph.
It's difficult to calculate the capacity based on all trains stopping at both, but at the worst it would be 8 tph.
The actual potential passenger capacity would depend on the length of platforms and type of stock available - I would assume that a 9 car IET would be too long for some platforms, so you could work on a 5 car at say 325 seats or a
4-car DMU at 260 or so (Of course, Warren, Starcross and St Thomas complicate matters, both for train length and for capacity....)

randyrippley said:
I spent a summer week in Dawlish in the early 1970s, and trains seemed to be every four minutes or so, something like 98% passenger services during the day.

The capacity then was determined by the block section Teignmouth-Hackney ~~Newton Abbot Racecourse~~ (corrected name) which was well above 4 minutes (I spent several holidays at Teignmouth around 1970 - Teignmouth Old Quay box was still open on my first visit which IIRC was 1968, which shortened the section slightly).

Momo and diggy · 9 Mar 2020

After a 2 year sojourn following the end of steam i started spotting again on my holiday in South devon with a visit to the sea wall at teignmourh on a Saturday in early july 1970.The trains heading towards Exeter seemed to be running ok but West bound trains were continually getting checked some even stopping alongside the sea wall.The locos seen where mainly westerns and warships with a few hymeks, brush 4s and peaks.

30907 · 9 Mar 2020

Momo and diggy said:
After a 2 year sojourn following the end of steam i started spotting again on my holiday in South devon with a visit to the sea wall at teignmourh on a Saturday in early july 1970.The trains heading towards Exeter seemed to be running ok but West bound trains were continually getting checked some even stopping alongside the sea wall.The locos seen where mainly westerns and warships with a few hymeks, brush 4s and peaks.

Yes, the closure of Teignmouth Old Quay box had a decided impact at busy times.

Sir Felix Pole · 10 Mar 2020

There was also an intermediate box between Hackney and Old Quay at Bishopsteignton, closing in May 1969. Old Quay box tended to be used only for 'as required' access to the docks (disconnected 1968) and for the high-summer peaks.

30907 · 10 Mar 2020

Sir Felix Pole said:
There was also an intermediate box between Hackney and Old Quay at Bishopsteignton, closing in May 1969. Old Quay box tended to be used only for 'as required' access to the docks (disconnected 1968) and for the high-summer peaks.

Thanks, didn't realise Bishopsteignton lasted as long as Old Quay - I only noticed the signalling changes at Teignmouth between one summer holiday and the next.

Capacity between Newton Abbott and Exeter St Davids

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