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Coronavirus.

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edwin_m

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I'd like to hope we are more on top of it than they were in Wuhan, because we've had more time to prepare and because we could initially focus on those who have travelled from that area rather than trying to monitor the whole population. But Italy had the same advantages and it seems to be out of control there, so we should certainly be planning for it to follow the same path here even if that probably won't happen.

If we were to achieve a 100% effective lockdown for the incubation period across the UK then in theory the virus would disappear. But the lockdown will never be 100% effective and even if it was the virus would soon be re-introduced somehow. So the measures that are implemented will have to be calibrated to balance public safety with keeping society going in something like a normal fashion, as well as trying to manage the peak of the epidemic to contain it within the capacity to deal with it, but also to get the worst over before autumn when that capacity reduces. I'm beginning to think this will require elderly and other more vulnerable people to be more severely restricted than the general population.
 
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ComUtoR

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Donny Trump has acted decisively to protect American lives by banning travel from the 26 Shengen countries to the US. Which I'm sure will do much to prevent the further spread within the US:

He is still allowing US citizens and their immediate family. Granted they will be screened but screening hasn't proved to be very effective so far. There is also a legitimate route into the US from other countries affected. When I booked a flight to the US last year I was offered a variety of options. There appears to be nothing stopping people flying from Europe, into the UK and then out to the US.

At least he is doing something but I fear its a little short sighted.
 

Bletchleyite

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If we were to achieve a 100% effective lockdown for the incubation period across the UK then in theory the virus would disappear. But the lockdown will never be 100% effective and even if it was the virus would soon be re-introduced somehow. So the measures that are implemented will have to be calibrated to balance public safety with keeping society going in something like a normal fashion, as well as trying to manage the peak of the epidemic to contain it within the capacity to deal with it, but also to get the worst over before autumn when that capacity reduces. I'm beginning to think this will require elderly and other more vulnerable people to be more severely restricted than the general population.

Yes, the measures are definitely about smoothing the peak to something the NHS can (at a push) cope with. No secret has been made about this. Even if we eradicated it, it'd soon make it back from elsewhere. So actually the best may be for everyone to get it over a few months and develop immunity, prior to any vaccine at least.

Regarding the elderly etc the "advantage" of that is that they are best placed to isolate (because of the lack of economic impact) and many just stay at home anyway. So this may not be hard to achieve.
 

notlob.divad

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Yes, the measures are definitely about smoothing the peak to something the NHS can (at a push) cope with. No secret has been made about this. Even if we eradicated it, it'd soon make it back from elsewhere. So actually the best may be for everyone to get it over a few months and develop immunity, prior to any vaccine at least.

Regarding the elderly etc the "advantage" of that is that they are best placed to isolate (because of the lack of economic impact) and many just stay at home anyway. So this may not be hard to achieve.

There is possibly an argument that we should be trying to expose 'low risk' individuals, (those who are unlilkely to suffer serious complications) to the virus sooner rather than later in order for them to develop personal immunity and assist with the societal immunity. The ethics of it are very questionable, but intentionally exposing 21-35 year old, non-smokers with no medical history of cardio-pulmenary disorder and are not front line medical staff. Then immediately quarentene them for 3-6 weeks. 2 for the incubation period, the time to recover and then 1 more week to be sure they are no longer contagious. The economic impact for those few weeks will be pretty devestating, but at least a large chunk of your population has then developed immunity and can go about their daily lives to support the rest of society. You would never get it past an ethics board as there is a good chance that despite being 'low risk' some of them develop life threatening complications.
 

Bantamzen

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Saying 456 in a population of 60 million is a low number is correct. However may I point out that Hubai province where Wuhan is located also has around 60million people, and it initiated it's lockdown at 400 cases. What happened there? they had to build 2 new hospitals in 6 days and nurses were making their own masks from scrap material. This is because 456 confirmed cases will be a fraction of the actual cases. People are likely to have been spreading the virus for days before they even feel the need to get tested, and all the people they have spread it to will also walk around and continue spreading it without knowing.

In my opinion, anywhere that has over 400 cases and hasn't already introduced an Italian style lockdown is going to have their medical system overloaded in the same way Lombardy and Wuhan have. That includes the UK and most of Western Europe. The stock markets are reacting as they see fit the politicians are the ones whoing themselves wofully underprepared.

Just remember what country we are talking about, China isn't exactly the most liberal of countries and has no problems enforcing government will on it's people. In reality nobody knows yet what method will prove to be effective, even in a country as authoritarian as China, it is impossible to lock down a virus. These things have been around for much longer than most, if not all life on Earth, and are very, very genetically patient as it were.

As for the Italians, it seems to have been more worse there than most other countries and that will need to be understood. But it doesn't necessarily make it the best option, indeed keeping groups of people locked to local areas might actually be helping it's spread. Nothing is certain yet.

I'd like to hope we are more on top of it than they were in Wuhan, because we've had more time to prepare and because we could initially focus on those who have travelled from that area rather than trying to monitor the whole population. But Italy had the same advantages and it seems to be out of control there, so we should certainly be planning for it to follow the same path here even if that probably won't happen.

If we were to achieve a 100% effective lockdown for the incubation period across the UK then in theory the virus would disappear. But the lockdown will never be 100% effective and even if it was the virus would soon be re-introduced somehow. So the measures that are implemented will have to be calibrated to balance public safety with keeping society going in something like a normal fashion, as well as trying to manage the peak of the epidemic to contain it within the capacity to deal with it, but also to get the worst over before autumn when that capacity reduces. I'm beginning to think this will require elderly and other more vulnerable people to be more severely restricted than the general population.

It was quite clearly the intention of the government to firstly track the known cases & follow the path of the infection. This would have allowed them to gain a better understanding of it's track through the population, and what factors might affect the chances of serious illness. And it was not a bad idea, as I say above viruses are very adaptable & very ancient organisms, so if COVID-19 didn't spread this year due to a worldwide lockdown, it would just wait, Better to understand it, and how to manage it rather than going for a full lockdown which you most certainly could not fully enforce.
 

Bletchleyite

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There is possibly an argument that we should be trying to expose 'low risk' individuals, (those who are unlilkely to suffer serious complications) to the virus sooner rather than later in order for them to develop personal immunity and assist with the societal immunity. The ethics of it are very questionable, but intentionally exposing 21-35 year old, non-smokers with no medical history of cardio-pulmenary disorder and are not front line medical staff. Then immediately quarentene them for 3-6 weeks. 2 for the incubation period, the time to recover and then 1 more week to be sure they are no longer contagious. The economic impact for those few weeks will be pretty devestating, but at least a large chunk of your population has then developed immunity and can go about their daily lives to support the rest of society. You would never get it past an ethics board as there is a good chance that despite being 'low risk' some of them develop life threatening complications.

I've got mild asthma but in all seriousness I'd volunteer, if only to get it done with before the weather gets good.

If it did go bad I've got no dependents.
 

83A

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I’ve had a brief scan through this thread and have a question.
Does anyone on the forum have this virus or personally know anyone that does?

Someone I know got in on a ski trip in France/Italy. This was however a few weeks ago before this virus was "on trend" he was feeling ill when he got home but by a stroke of luck his wife is a GP and tested him. He self isolated for a few weeks and I think is now in the clear and back at work. Luckly he was tested as soon as he got home!
 

TheEdge

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I'm starting to wonder if Covid-19 might be a big nail in the coffin of the US health service.

There is an interesting article on the BBC from a few days ago about how Trump and the US is dealing with this. one of the big points is down to how despite all the power of the US the heads of state in Europe with their social welfare and centralised power over healthcare provision are in a far stronger position than he is.

I've also seen a value of $3000 - $4000 for a Coronavirus test under the US system and the general fact American's don't visit doctors routinely due to the cost is hampering them big time.

We can hope it changes some minds...
 

notlob.divad

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I'm starting to wonder if Covid-19 might be a big nail in the coffin of the US health service.

There is an interesting article on the BBC from a few days ago about how Trump and the US is dealing with this. one of the big points is down to how despite all the power of the US the heads of state in Europe with their social welfare and centralised power over healthcare provision are in a far stronger position than he is.

I've also seen a value of $3000 - $4000 for a Coronavirus test under the US system and the general fact American's don't visit doctors routinely due to the cost is hampering them big time.

We can hope it changes some minds...

The big problem in the US has been that rather than use the internationally developed test that was proved acurate and effective, they decided that the US knows best and developed their own internal test. That test was flawed and ineffective. So it is widly recognised that the number of cases in the US is vastly under-reported. The US is at something like 26 tests per million people. The UK is around 390 where as S. Korea and Barhain are over the 4000 per million. Trump like all right wing nationalists: thinks he is stopping the big bad virus getting in because the numbers are low, when in fact all that is happening is that a lack of co-ordinated action is hiding the scale of the problem.

I'm happy he has banned me from going, I wouldn't want to be in the US right now.
 

Meerkat

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I've got mild asthma but in all seriousness I'd volunteer, if only to get it done with before the weather gets good.

If it did go bad I've got no dependents.

I would really like to be sure you can only get it once and there is only one strain going around.
If they could clear people as non-contagious (either way) after recovery those people can be thrown into looking after those at risk or suffering.
 

Scousemouse

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One of the resons it got out of control in Italy so quickly (and also a lot of the med countries) is their standard greeting of kissing cheeks 2 or three times and hugging. Which is done to everyone.

You are sitting in an office and someone you have never met or work with comes in to see someone else, and next minute its kissy kissy hug hug to everyone. Makes me cringe as a reserved brit.

That, and the fact they have a relatively older population, live in apartments more where it is more difficult to control cross infection of public areas and are more likely to have the elderly living with the younger generation.
 

DarloRich

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Let's keep Bojo-bashing separate from it - the civil service (PHE and Scottish/Welsh/NI equivalents) are calling the shots here.

Indeed and I trust their advice - however the politicians need to follow the expert advice they are given. This is not certain. You cant detach the political from the medical in these cases. One only needs to look at the USA to see that.

One of the resons it got out of control in Italy so quickly (and also a lot of the med countries) is their standard greeting of kissing cheeks 2 or three times and hugging. Which is done to everyone.

whatsa your racial stereotype aday? ;)
 

Bletchleyite

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whatsa your racial stereotype aday? ;)

That is not a racial stereotype, it's an observation of usual practice between countries. It is usual practice in Romance countries to greet with a hug and kisses, whereas in Germanic countries (the UK counts as one in this sort of regard) a handshake is more normal and perhaps easier to dispense with. Your ethnic origin has little or no relevance to that.

If you want to observe a split on topic for the Forum, compare countries with a Takt approach and an airline approach to long distance rail :D
 

DarloRich

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As far as I can see they are doing.

Thus far. My confidence for when the really hard decisions come is not as high. Lets see. It isnt helped when Johnson goes on TV and basically says maybe we should just let everyone catch this because, you know.

I wonder if he has followed the PHE rules on contact with an infected person. I hope so!

ts not a sterotype. I've spent a lot of time working in offices in Spain, France and Italy. Its speaking from experience

That is not a racial stereotype, it's an observation of usual practice between countries.

Great. I have some experience of Italians and French contractors. No one has ever kissed me in a business environment! No dealings with the Spanish in a business environment mind so that might explain it. Although we do have a large Spanish community in MK and of the couple I know closely none of them have ever kissed me as a greeting. Maybe I am simply to hideous.

also see ;)
 

The_Train

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Its not a sterotype. I've spent a lot of time working in offices in Spain, France and Italy. Its speaking from experience

But go ahead with the ssuption.

That is not a racial stereotype, it's an observation of usual practice between countries. It is usual practice in Romance countries to greet with a hug and kisses, whereas in Germanic countries a handshake is more normal and perhaps easier to dispense with. Your ethnic origin has little or no relevance to that.

Even me, who's bitten at @DarloRich as much as anyone, could see the winky emoji was maybe showing a little bit of playfulness from him as opposed to him being serious :lol:
 

Bletchleyite

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Thus far. My confidence for when the really hard decisions come is not as high. Lets see. It isnt helped when Johnson goes on TV and basically says maybe we should just let everyone catch this because, you know.

I wonder if he has followed the PHE rules on contact with an infected person. I hope so!

As I actually know someone who has had direct contact with Bojo since he "might" have caught it that is an actual concern! (Not seen him in person since then).

Great. I have some experience of Italians and French contractors. No one has ever kissed me in a business environment! No dealings with the Spanish in a business environment mind so that might explain it. Although we do have a large Spanish community in MK and of the couple I know closely none of them have ever kissed me as a greeting. Maybe I am simply to hideous.

That's because they're in the UK, and it isn't UK practice. If anything that gives credence to my point that it's nothing to do with ethnicity and everything to do with practice in given countries.
 

Meerkat

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It’s interesting how some people (of both political wings) normally squeal about such and such a policy maybe harming the economy (don’t say the B word!!) but then are happy to demand we crash the economy early for Covid. The economy is people’s lives and health and well-being, we have to bear that in mind and not over react.
 

DarloRich

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That's because they're in the UK, and it isn't UK practice. If anything that gives credence to my point that it's nothing to do with ethnicity and everything to do with practice in given countries.

My point, which I should have just said rather than try to be humorous, is that I don't think that is the main/sole reason for the spread of the virus in the Mediterranean countries. There must be more to it than that.
 

Bletchleyite

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My point, which I should have just said rather than try to be humorous, is that I don't think that is the main/sole reason for the spread of the virus in the Mediterranean countries. There must be more to it than that.

I'd imagine so, but it will be a factor. Flat dwelling may also be a factor - more chance for spread via doorhandles and banisters.
 

Meerkat

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How about cafe culture? Takeaway coffees here are going to be much lower risk than all the china, cutlery, milk/cream/sugar/sprinkles jugs/bowls, hard tables/chairs, involved in a proper cafe break.
 
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