Virgin West Coast Open Access Application

Bletchleyite · 12 Mar 2020

greatvoyager said:
Interesting that it was withdrawn, but it does say they may consider resubmitting the application too.

Not with DMUs I'd suspect. Might the adverse press from using DMUs wholly under the wires (and ones described by Avanti as rubbish) not have helped either?

OTOH if they got some Class 397s ("loads of tables, all window aligned") they may be able to sell it better.

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greatvoyager · 12 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Not with DMUs I'd suspect. Might the adverse press from using DMUs wholly under the wires (and ones described by Avanti as rubbish) not have helped either?

OTOH if they got some Class 397s ("loads of tables, all window aligned") they may be able to sell it better.

I'd agree with that, would make more sense.

greatvoyager · 12 Mar 2020

swt_passenger said:
“They would say that”, as someone is supposed to have once said...

Very true.

Domh245 · 12 Mar 2020

The deliberate reference to the Williams review (or at least, the uncertainty around it) is interesting. Implication there seems to be that it may make the operation unviable - try to read into that what you will!

Bletchleyite · 12 Mar 2020

Domh245 said:
The deliberate reference to the Williams review (or at least, the uncertainty around it) is interesting. Implication there seems to be that it may make the operation unviable - try to read into that what you will!

Once we're out of the EU we would have no requirement to even allow open access unless the final deal requires us to.

I'd be in favour of not doing, in my view the effect of it is primarily negative. About the only one that really provides something new to the extent of being worth having (rather than being abstractive) is Hull Trains, and that could become franchised, or nationalised if we went that way.

3141 · 12 Mar 2020

My guess is that the proposal to run an open access operation was a reaction by Virgin to the prospect of losing the West Coast franchise, and that as the weeks have passed they have begun to think that maybe it wasn't such a brilliant idea after all. That change of view may have been influenced by the critical responses to the proposed operation of diesel trains under the wires, or the uncertainty about what changes the Williams Review will (one day) propose, or maybe they've simply been asking themselves "Hang on, is it really worth the effort?"

Bletchleyite · 12 Mar 2020

3141 said:
My guess is that the proposal to run an open access operation was a reaction by Virgin to the prospect of losing the West Coast franchise, and that as the weeks have passed they have begun to think that maybe it wasn't such a brilliant idea after all. That change of view may have been influenced by the critical responses to the proposed operation of diesel trains under the wires, or the uncertainty about what changes the Williams Review will (one day) propose, or maybe they've simply been asking themselves "Hang on, is it really worth the effort?"

Or maybe the ticketing service they are now apparently offering is profitable enough without all the faff and complexity of bothering running trains?

LNW-GW Joint · 12 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Once we're out of the EU we would have no requirement to even allow open access unless the final deal requires us to.
I'd be in favour of not doing, in my view the effect of it is primarily negative. About the only one that really provides something new to the extent of being worth having (rather than being abstractive) is Hull Trains, and that could become franchised, or nationalised if we went that way.

If you allow any private access at all (eg freight), you have to allow the same for passenger operators.
I doubt a Tory government would impose a monopoly situation on the industry, or ban new entrants.
And if you have multiple commercial operators, you need the ORR, track access agreements and all the paraphernalia of competition.
Leaving the EU doesn't change any of that.
HS1 and the Heathrow branch will still be there in non-NR/non-franchise TOC ownership/operation.

The_Train · 12 Mar 2020

I'm pretty sure the Virgin brand will continue to be a market leader and continue to be a money maker whether Branson is playing trains in the UK or not. Hasn't he recently started a rail service in the US? Maybe that is enough to meet his desire for railway based fun!

I actually think @3141 makes a good point at the end of their post above. We've probably all experienced that initial reaction to something negative where we want to go out and do something to fight it, but then, after a week or 2, when we've had time to re-evaluate we just decide it isn't worth it and move on

Bletchleyite · 12 Mar 2020

LNW-GW Joint said:
If you allow any private access at all (eg freight), you have to allow the same for passenger operators.

No, you don't.

krus_aragon · 12 Mar 2020

Domh245 said:
The deliberate reference to the Williams review (or at least, the uncertainty around it) is interesting. Implication there seems to be that it may make the operation unviable - try to read into that what you will!

I read it more as "we've decided we don't want to try to run this anymore, and we can mention this review as an excuse for doing so".

Carlisle · 12 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Once we're out of the EU we would have no requirement to even allow open access unless the final deal requires us to.
.

However that’s a decision that should be taken on its own rmerits or lack of them & not simply imposed by those whose only consideration is avoidance of using diesels for a relatively short period & nothing else

SlimJim1694 · 12 Mar 2020

I would be very surprised if top brass at the TOCs, at Network Rail and in the DFT don't already know what is going to be in the Williams Review when it eventually comes out.

I could never work out what Virgin were playing at with this Liverpool thing anyway. Avanti are meant to be upping it to half hourly anyway, and besides that you've already got the half hourly budget option stoppers. Like others above have said it was probably just a knee jerk reaction to losing the franchise in the first place.

Ianno87 · 12 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Once we're out of the EU we would have no requirement to even allow open access unless the final deal requires us to.

The various EU Railway Directives are generally enshrined into UK Law via The Railways Act. That would need changing for the requirement to be removed.

Mollman · 12 Mar 2020

Remember Virgin's submission to Williams was about converting Intercity franchises to semi-open access.

Chester1 · 12 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
Not with DMUs I'd suspect. Might the adverse press from using DMUs wholly under the wires (and ones described by Avanti as rubbish) not have helped either?

OTOH if they got some Class 397s ("loads of tables, all window aligned") they may be able to sell it better.

The original application was for Mark IV sets like Grand Central.

I suspect part of the calculation was that Grand Central would never manage to actually start its services. Now they are finally about to launch it reduces the market. It would be easier to launch a smaller Liverpool service interworked with Blackpool services. If the Blackpool service is a success then Arriva might reassess the viability of other WCML routes. 6tpd Liverpool - London worked by Mark IV sets might be a good choice.

Bletchleyite · 12 Mar 2020

SlimJim1694 said:
I could never work out what Virgin were playing at with this Liverpool thing anyway. Avanti are meant to be upping it to half hourly anyway, and besides that you've already got the half hourly budget option stoppers

For now. There is a reasonable chance December 2020 or May 2021 will remove those if the upcoming changes to LNR services (which retain them but with a 20 minute drop-back at New St) don't restore stability. You could still change at New St, though, which you'd probably want for a break if you were on a packed 350/2 anyway.

Bald Rick · 13 Mar 2020

Perhaps they’d seen this report:

https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/42580/wcml-capacity-report-2020.pdf

(Too long to quote, sorry!)

LNW-GW Joint · 13 Mar 2020

This report demonstrates the capacity impact of running 110mph trains on a 125mph (tilting) railway.
Each 110mph path consumes 2x125mph paths between Euston and Milton Keynes, and there's a table of the incremental differences further north which reach 12.5 minutes at Weaver Jn (for Liverpool) and 16.5 minutes at Carnforth.
WMT operates three 110mph services out of Euston on the fast line, and GC will operate one.
Given the WCML is "full", it shows the folly of TOCs not ordering more 125mph tilting trains (or clearing more of the WCML for 125mph for non-tilting trains).
Makes you wonder why WMT has ordered new Aventra trains capable of no more than 110mph, thus perpetuating the status quo.

No mention is made of any plan to revise the speed restrictions on the WCML for non-tilting trains.

Other interesting nuggets are that the power supply at Crewe is near its limit, and a new feeder station is going in at Curriehill (on the Carstairs-Edinburgh line), which will allow more electric services in that area.
The WCML power supply upgrade from Euston to Great Strickland (Penrith) is also said to be incomplete.

swt_passenger · 13 Mar 2020

LNW-GW Joint said:
[…]
Given the WCML is "full", it shows the folly of TOCs not ordering more 125mph tilting trains (or clearing more of the WCML for 125mph for non-tilting trains).
[…]
No mention is made of any plan to revise the speed restrictions on the WCML for non-tilting trains...

Interesting point. If you go to the correspondence about Avanti’s 2nd Liverpool service application on the ORR site, there’s a reply from NR which is basically saying “no one asked us about 125 mph non-tilt”. Then there’s a letter from Avanti which includes all the names of the NR individuals they’d been in contact with. It all looks a bit odd...

LNW-GW Joint · 13 Mar 2020

Well in the new NR setup you can't get higher than Tim Shoveller.
The other NR names are, I suppose, not LNW Route folk (ie not invented here...).

I wonder what "minor infill electrification" Avanti are looking at, to facilitate more effective diversions?

Elecman · 13 Mar 2020

LNW-GW Joint said:
Other interesting nuggets are that the power supply at Crewe is near its limit, and a new feeder station is going in at Curriehill (on the Carstairs-Edinburgh line), which will allow more electric services in that area.
The WCML power supply upgrade from Euston to Great Strickland (Penrith) is also said to be incomplete.

Yes the WCML Power Supply Upgrade is very incomplete!!

Bletchleyite · 13 Mar 2020

LNW-GW Joint said:
Makes you wonder why WMT has ordered new Aventra trains capable of no more than 110mph, thus perpetuating the status quo.

Because they are for the next 30-50 years, and once HS2 is open there is really no case for running the classic WCML at 125mph at all?

Bald Rick · 14 Mar 2020

swt_passenger said:
Interesting point. If you go to the correspondence about Avanti’s 2nd Liverpool service application on the ORR site, there’s a reply from NR which is basically saying “no one asked us about 125 mph non-tilt”. Then there’s a letter from Avanti which includes all the names of the NR individuals they’d been in contact with. It all looks a bit odd...

It’s carefully worded. It says that there are no committed works, ie that no one has agreed to pay for it (and by implication, no one has agreed to pay for the study), not that no one has asked.

Bald Rick · 14 Mar 2020

LNW-GW Joint said:
Well in the new NR setup you can't get higher than Tim Shoveller.

Except his boss.

Class 170101 · 14 Mar 2020

The only reason the xx57 path doesn't exist in all hours is because the xx46 doesn't go inside at Rugby surely (A02.04)?

greatvoyager · 14 Mar 2020

Chester1 said:
The original application was for Mark IV sets like Grand Central.

I suspect part of the calculation was that Grand Central would never manage to actually start its services. Now they are finally about to launch it reduces the market. It would be easier to launch a smaller Liverpool service interworked with Blackpool services. If the Blackpool service is a success then Arriva might reassess the viability of other WCML routes. 6tpd Liverpool - London worked by Mark IV sets might be a good choice.

That's a good point.

TiedUpInNotts · 14 Mar 2020

Bald Rick said:
Perhaps they’d seen this report:

https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/42580/wcml-capacity-report-2020.pdf

(Too long to quote, sorry!)

Interesting report. If I'm reading this wrong please forgive me, but what's this about Avanti getting more 110mph rolling stock?

I was unable to copy and paste from the PDF for some reason so have attached a screenshot.

AlexNL · 14 Mar 2020

Would that perhaps be the new Hitachi stock ordered by Avanti? While 125mph capable, perhaps that won't be authorised everywhere due to lacking tilt?

krus_aragon · 15 Mar 2020

Yeup. The Voyager replacements are non-tilt, so as things stand they're limited to 110mph on the WCML.

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