Predictions for the next decade

carlberry said:

Whats wrong with acquiring from Africa, Stagecoach has done it already!

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Poor turning circles.

carlberry said:

Whats wrong with acquiring from Africa, Stagecoach has done it already!

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I presume you refer to the Dennis Dragons from Kenya? Those were great people movers on Oxford Road - massive things with big leanable windows (good for a student who'd had a pint or three too many and a dodgy kebab to puke out of) but very slow to load and unload having only one single and very narrow door.

Bletchleyite said:

I presume you refer to the Dennis Dragons from Kenya? Those were great people movers on Oxford Road - massive things with big leanable windows (good for a student who'd had a pint or three too many and a dodgy kebab to puke out of) but very slow to load and unload having only one single and very narrow door.

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Indeed, however I wasn't aware of the window advantage which is, clearly, why Stagecoach stuck them onto the service!

Bletchleyite said:

I presume you refer to the Dennis Dragons from Kenya? Those were great people movers on Oxford Road - massive things with big leanable windows (good for a student who'd had a pint or three too many and a dodgy kebab to puke out of) but very slow to load and unload having only one single and very narrow door.

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Remember though, some of them were used in Scotland in the early days of Megabus on their route between Glasgow and Edinburgh before Stagecoach acquired the 900 from Bruce Coaches. I did the journey once and I don't think the bus went any faster than 45mph down the M8, it was literally torture. Thankfully the return journey was on Alexander bodied Citybus E864RCS which quite happilly left Park's B12M/Plaxtons on the Citylink 900 eating dust...

Colin M said:

Remember though, some of them were used in Scotland in the early days of Megabus on their route between Glasgow and Edinburgh before Stagecoach acquired the 900 from Bruce Coaches. I did the journey once and I don't think the bus went any faster than 45mph down the M8, it was literally torture. Thankfully the return journey was on Alexander bodied Citybus E864RCS which quite happilly left Park's B12M/Plaxtons on the Citylink 900 eating dust...

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I thought that all the early Megabus vehicles were the rejects from Hong Kong?

carlberry said:

I thought that all the early Megabus vehicles were the rejects from Hong Kong?

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Megabus saw ex-Hong Kong Olympians, ex-Kenyan Dragons and also the small batch of F registered, low height Alexander bodied tri-axle Olympians new to Stagecoach in the UK. There was also an assortment of other vehicles including Citybuses and standard 2 axle Olympians used as well. A quick search of Flickr throws up some quite interesting results for the early days of Megabus.

With Coronavirus in full force, my crystal ball says that First will have to make a choice about ditching anything that's not UK and Ireland by way of sales/IPOs, it'll be a tough time for independents with some selling out and some going to the wall.

Had COVID-19 not happened I probably would have said:

1. Centrebus will probably swallow up Midland Classic and Select Bus Services, giving the new group more of the North and East Midlands.
2. NX will probably make another purchase (I'm thinking possibly another NX contractor, maybe Parks of Hamilton or Stotts). WM wise, Coventry will see the beginning of a bus war with Stagecoach, with NX extending their CV20 to Atherstone every 20 mins (just in front of the Stagecoach 48), and stagecoach setting up on the X1 Coventry to Airport (using an out base in Coventry)
3. Stagecoach will make another round of cuts in East Kent, with more PVR cuts.
4. Rotala would buy out either Falcon Buses to expand Hallmark, or Arriva Southport.
5. First would pull out of Vantage
6. Arriva would make more cuts to Cannock, with Centrebus owned D&G taking up the slack.
7. Transdev and Ratp will consider selling their UK ops as we crash out of a Europe transition deal.

Rotala will end up being chased out of Preston. Coastal Coaches to get the 31, maybe 35, 44, 88 and 89 while the rest goes to Stagecoach. Rotala to remain running the microfleet (although this COULD end up with Transdev) and Ormskirk services for the time being.

Stagecoach to expand further in Lancaster and eventually buy out Kirkby Lonsdale leaving them the sole provider in Lancaster.

Trent Barton and Transdev to record record growth.

Metrobus Crawley taking over operations of routes 63 (Horsham to Guildford) and 53 (Guildford to Ewhurst).

Metrobus Crawley extending route 22 from Abinger Hammer to Guildford and increasing the frequency.

Stagecoach in Hants & Surrey to take over routes 34 & 35 and become new Stagecoach Gold routes maybe with 14/64/15 reg Scania E400s cascaded from others parts.

Stagecoach will also take over operations of Guildford town service route 18 to Onslow Village, and the A and C will be withdrawn replaced by extra journeys on the 1 & 2.

Guildford town service 36 & 37 to be taken over by Compass Travel, or Safeguard Coaches.

Stagecoach will now run the 479 on all days and not just Sundays & Public Holidays as it is currently.

White Bus to take over operation operation of route 436.

Safeguards to run the 3s on all days and not just on Mondays to Saturdays,

Falcon Buses to run the 28 on all days and not just Mondays to Saturdays, as well as peak hour route 47.

91 to be run either by Stagecoach in Hants & Surrey, White Bus or Falcon Coaches.

Arriva in Guildford & West Surrey will be no more, basically.



These are just predictions, not confirmed changes.

NCT continues biogas purchases.
TrentBarton continues to withdraw services

317 forever said:

Halton to Rotala

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Well.... this one is impossible now.

bussnapperwm said:

Rotala would buy out either Falcon Buses to expand Hallmark, or Arriva Southport.
First would pull out of Vantage
Transdev and Ratp will consider selling their UK ops as we crash out of a Europe transition deal.

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Rotala I am unsure about. If they expand, I think it will be the very end of the year as Bolton is being a big financial strain on the business. Arriva Southport might be a possibility as the local routes are the sort of routes which suit Rotala well. I think Arriva would move some routes though as I don't think Rotala would be wanting to run so far away like on the 47 and 300. The other routes though are Rotalas bread and butter I would say. I wonder if Rotala would buy Cumfybus and Arriva Southport minus the 47 and 300. Then they could use 1 depot and run all of Southports local routes.

First and Vantage, I think they are going to let the contract run it's course and then not rebid for it. It's not worth the hassle for everyone to hand back the contract and if First don't want it, they just won't rebid. I think it's due up for grabs within the next 18 months.

Ratp, I can see trying to scrap their UK ops. AirDecker and their sightseeing ops seem to do reasonably well. I do wonder who would want to purchase the operations as the services are so spread out. Selwyns might be a bit easier to rid as NX might want them to bring the ops more in house. London operations could easily be sorted i'm sure.

Transdev, I am not sure if they will want to go. They seem relatively happy in their current little network. They could get a bit more in terms of acquisitions depending on how First progress. Obviously York, West Yorkshire and maybe services in Oldham (not the depot).

I will predict that D&G will acquire one of Arriva (Cheshire area) or First (Potteries area) within the next 5 years.