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Government advice discussion

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DarloRich

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Are you seriously suggesting, as I'm reading your post, NONE of us should be involved in ANY social interactions outside our homes? So I see a fellow human being I've not seen for ages, on my way home from work, I shouldn't even attempt to talk to them?

Spot on. Give them a wave, keep away and give them a ring when you get home.

I might be reading your post incorrectly, of course. I have to interact with a mega-ton of people every day at work, colleagues or otherwise, and as a 'key worker' unless I'm ill I'm not staying at home. No-one in my household is ill either. We are still going about our daily activities as normal, or at least what we can do now half the city is closed or near enough to it.

You have answered your own question. I think you said you work for a supermarket. That is going to be a crucial job so the rules are designed to keep people like you fit to work. Follow the rules given by the government and keep the rest of us safe.
 
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Ianno87

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I have just walked through my local park where there is a small play area. There must have been about 20-30 children in there on the swings, slides & the like with their parents standing watching. What on earth do they think the reason for all schools being closed is? No doubt they will all be off to see Granny for Mothers Day tomorrow.

Depends how big the play area is and how much natural distancing there is between the kids.
 

AndrewE

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Depends how big the play area is and how much natural distancing there is between the kids.
Well they certainly won't be washing their hands between going on each bit of the playground equipment will they? However a lot of parents will be thinking that kids catch and pass on loads of infections all the time - and the lack of this in super-hygienic nurseries etc might be what is making them vulnerable to things that didn't trouble us (people who are now in their later years) so why worry?
It's a difficult judgement: How dangerous is Coronovirus really, when lots of the people who might die of it would have died of something else this winter anyway? How much harm will it do the majority of people who get it? (We have just had a phone call from a 72-year old woman whose symptoms match it perfectly, but who has come through it and is sounding quite cheerful this evening.)
 
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Ianno87

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Well they certainly won't be washing their hands between going on each bit of the playground equipment will they? However a lot of parents will be thinking that kids catch and pass on loads of infections all the time - and the lack of this in super-hygienic nurseries etc might be what is making them vulnerable to things that didn't trouble us (people who are now in their later years) so why worry?
It's a difficult judgement: How dangerous is Coronovirus really, when lots of the people who might die of it would have died of something else this winter anyway? How much harm will it do the majority of people who get it? (We have just had a phone call from a 72-year old woman whose symptoms match it perfectly, but who has come through it and is sounding quite cheerful this evening.

It is difficult with kids... being stuck inside is bad for their health and development too - playgrounds are great not just for physical exercise but also social interaction skills (e.g. learning to take turns on things).

Most Cambridge playgrounds were deserted today - I'd still take mine there unless it were busy. I'm cutting off their interaction with most of the rest of the world instead.
 
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Depends how big the play area is and how much natural distancing there is between the kids.

It isn't that big, probably about the same area as a classroom except of course that it is outside. It was the fact that were all jumping on & off the same bits of equipment that stood out to me. Adult Gyms have been closed down for this reason.
 

cactustwirly

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Well they certainly won't be washing their hands between going on each bit of the playground equipment will they? However a lot of parents will be thinking that kids catch and pass on loads of infections all the time - and the lack of this in super-hygienic nurseries etc might be what is making them vulnerable to things that didn't trouble us (people who are now in their later years) so why worry?
It's a difficult judgement: How dangerous is Coronovirus really, when lots of the people who might die of it would have died of something else this winter anyway? How much harm will it do the majority of people who get it? (We have just had a phone call from a 72-year old woman whose symptoms match it perfectly, but who has come through it and is sounding quite cheerful this evening.)

It gives quite severe pneumonia, which requires the patient to spend a significant of time on a ventilator to recover.
It's not just old people that are effected, but anyone, especially people with diabetes or asthma
 

Jamesrob637

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Am I deemed essential if I travel from mum's to mine, which is nearly 300 miles and will require one pit stop? Will not buy anything at the services or refuel, only go to the loo.
 

trainophile

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Am I deemed essential if I travel from mum's to mine, which is nearly 300 miles and will require one pit stop? Will not buy anything at the services or refuel, only go to the loo.

I thought it was only non-essential public transport journeys that were proscribed at the moment. Private cars should still be okay. Your pit stop is no different from visiting a supermarket.
 

cactustwirly

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I thought it was only non-essential public transport journeys that were proscribed at the moment. Private cars should still be okay. Your pit stop is no different from visiting a supermarket.
No it's non essential journeys of any kind.
Although the journey described sounds like it is essential
 

NoMorePacers

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No it's non essential journeys of any kind.
Although the journey described sounds like it is essential
As far as I can tell, you are advised to avoid any non-essential travel on public transport, but travel in private transport is fine if taken with caution.
 

cactustwirly

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People crash cars and get hurt. The NHS could do without that.

Also if you're making a journey that isn't essential, then you're likely to be at risk of spreading the virus further, once you're at your destination, or at petrol stations etc.
 

Jamesrob637

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I would love to be able to do 300 miles non-stop but I'd have to have derogation to do 90-100 the whole way. With at least three 50mph/average speed camera sections (albeit two are relatively brief) that won't be happening!
 

JonathanH

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How dangerous is Coronovirus really, when lots of the people who might die of it would have died of something else this winter anyway? How much harm will it do the majority of people who get it?

It is incredibly dangerous for many people, not just those who 'would have died of something else this winter'. If it was only going to kill those people, we would have asked them to stay in and everyone else could go about their normal lives.

I hope you realise why everyone has to cut back their social interaction - it certainly isn't to protect 'people who were going to die anyway'. No one knows what the characteristics are of people who are badly affected. Until that is known everyone needs to be protected.

Moreover, evidence from Italy is that the hospitals are overwhelmed - that is going to happen here and it is frightening.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/coro...e-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

"It's a very severe pneumonia, and so it's a massive strain for every health system, because we see every day 50 to 60 patients who come to our emergency department with pneumonia, and most of them are so severe they need very high volumes of oxygen.

Stay at home
 

AndrewE

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It is incredibly dangerous for many people, not just those who 'would have died of something else this winter'. If it was only going to kill those people, we would have asked them to stay in and everyone else could go about their normal lives.

I hope you realise why everyone has to cut back their social interaction - it certainly isn't to protect 'people who were going to die anyway'. No one knows what the characteristics are of people who are badly affected. Until that is known everyone needs to be protected.

Moreover, evidence from Italy is that the hospitals are overwhelmed - that is going to happen here and it is frightening.
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/coro...e-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597
Stay at home
I take it that you haven't read MD in Private Eye then. I suggest that you do, then come back to discuss this.
 

JonathanH

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I take it that you haven't read MD in Private Eye then. I suggest that you do, then come back to discuss this

Would you be able to summarise the key points? Better still, I found it.

Pandemic update: M.D. On the best medicine...
Coronavirus, Issue 1518

coronavirus.jpg

FROM the moment your sperm meets your egg, you join the queue for death. It’s nature’s way of recycling. You can fall back in the queue by eating your greens or washing your hands, but we all get to the front eventually. Even experts have been known to die.

In 2018-2019, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales, 50,100 more than expected, due to a mixture of cold weather, prolonged austerity and seasonal respiratory viruses. As of 15 March, there were 35 deaths from coronavirus; but pandemics grow exponentially and cases could quickly overwhelm the NHS, social care and funeral services, and cause widespread cancellation of treatment for other conditions like cancer and heart disease.

Estimates of how many extra deaths Covid-19 will cause in the UK range from 50,000 (ie similar to 2018-19) to 500,000 (ie a doubling of annual deaths). It all depends on how well we manage the risks. The government’s policy is to abandon containment and promote herd immunity, with Public Health England now anticipating the crisis could last a year, infecting 80 percent of the population and leading to 7.9m people needing hospitalisation. This would likely put the deaths at the upper end of the estimates, and intensive care services would have to be strictly rationed.

Hand-washing: a roaring success
The government’s scaling back of community testing has fuelled further uncertainty. One solution comes from Graham Medley, Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. We should all assume we already have the virus and behave as if we’re infectious until further notice. Wash your hands and keep your distance from the elderly (unless they need help getting on and off the commode. Then wash your hands again).

The hand-washing campaign at least has been a roaring success. Early figures suggest it may have delayed the surge of Covid-19, and is likely to have reduced the incidence of seasonal influenza, food poisoning, hepatitis A, threadworm and pubic hair in Caesar salad.

Alas, 40 percent of the world’s population do not have access to the miracle of soap and water in their homes, and that is where the virus will eventually hit hardest. They’re used to death. More than 4,000 people a day die from TB and 1,200 from malaria. But because it doesn’t crash the economy, hit pension funds or disrupt holiday cruises, it gets virtually no publicity.

For the UK public at large, the risk of a coronavirus death remains low. The predicted range is that out of every 100 random Brits, 99 won’t die from Covid-19 this year (worst scenario) to out of every 1,000 people, 999 won’t die from Covid-19 (best scenario). Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s “many of you will lose loved ones before their time” speech was hardly Churchillian (“We will lose thousands on the beaches”). Those at highest risk are in their eighties, unsurprising since the average life expectancy in the UK is 80.96 years. Those who die may have died from something else in the not too distant future.

If M.D. (58) got seriously ill with Covid-19, I’d join the queue for a ventilator but accept it if a 40 year old jumped ahead of me.

?That’s how rationing in the NHS has always worked. If I make it to 80, I would neither want nor expect to have prolonged intubation on ITU for severe respiratory distress. Overtreatment of the elderly when they are seriously ill often just extends suffering. Before we all demanded to live forever, pneumonia was known as “the old man’s friend” (with a dose of morphine?on top).

Experts have been predicting another pandemic for decades, but politicians refused to listen, preferring to run the NHS on near 100 percent bed occupancy, with fewer beds and intensive care facilities than most other countries. Indeed, over the last 30 years, the number of NHS hospital beds has halved. We have not built extra capacity into the system and we will soon find out if we can.

All eyes will now switch to the overall death figures. The Office for National Statistics provides a weekly tally for those with a strong stomach. The week ending 10 January 2020 was the worst of the year so far, with 14,058 deaths. But it’s fallen every week since to 10,816 in the week ended 28 February. Deaths are actually lower this year than the average for each week over the previous five years. I like to think it’s the handwashing.

Bingeing on fear
Many counties have taken much stricter measures than the UK, based on roughly the same evidence, which shows how uncertain the science is. We will only find out who got it right after the event. In the UK, many older people may say “bollocks” to 14 weeks of lockdown and go about what’s left of their one wild and precious life. All adults should already have made an advanced care plan (eg via Compassion in Dying), so doctors know in advance whether you want a shot at recovery or end of life care.

M.D. works in the world of post-viral fatigue and so is expecting an increase in workload further down the line. Evidence suggests that if you’re fearful and anxious when and after you contract a virus, it makes the symptoms and long-term sequelae worse. And the UK is currently bingeing on fear.

Down the corridor, my anaesthetic colleagues have started their spike in workload. The Chinese and Italian experience is that staff working in intensive care may be at increased risk of serious illness and death. This may be because repeated exposure to high doses of the virus from intubation and other intimate procedures takes its toll. It may be that the best protective equipment wasn’t available. And it may also be that the stress and fear of working intolerably long hours with a relentless workload of critically ill infectious patients also damages the immune system and makes you more susceptible. By any projection, we are not well equipped to deal with a surge in demand. ITU staff need the best equipment available. And the right to refuse to treat.

GPs and other community carers are doing home visits to people likely to have Covid-19 without any protective equipment at all, or with cut price garb that looks like they work behind the counter in Greggs. How virus-tight they are remains to be seen, but they are causing much nervous hilarity.

Keep it up
Laughter is the best medicine – unless of course you have syphilis, in which case it’s penicillin. There are no effective drugs yet for Covid-19 and the best ways to boost your immune system are not the nonsense new age supplements doing the rounds (there’s a $200 magic yoghurt pill you can shove up your arse) but laughter and sex. The second drug my GP surgery ran out of (after paracetamol) was Viagra. The best position for reduced transmission and improved lung function is the wheelbarrow. Just don’t go past your mum’s house. Enjoy your isolation. Look out for others. Try not to fall down the stairs. Don’t get caught in a bog-roll scrum (it’s the ideal breeding-ground for viruses). And remember it’s the simple pleasures, not the big scares, that give purpose and meaning to life. Coronavirus may yet teach us to behave in a kinder, gentler, less consumptive way.

M.D.

Satire.

Do you think it would be a reasonable strategy to just let people who have severe symptoms of Coronavirus die at home from pneumonia?

We expect the health service to look after us when we are ill and to live to about 80. Dying at 40 from something which could be avoided is really not a great outcome.
 
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StephenHunter

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Not satire; Private Eye makes a clear distinction between its serious investigative reporting and the satire.
 

JonathanH

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Not satire; Private Eye makes a clear distinction between its serious investigative reporting and the satire.

The article is properly researched and raises many reasonable points - but politically it simply isn't acceptable to kill 1% of the population in a fairly nasty way in three months rather than twelve.
 

AndrewE

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It's a full page of print under 4 headings, and I don't think it would be fair to scan it for posting (undoubtedly it would be in the public interest, but whether it would be legal or not isn't really open to question.)
A few sentences:
"In 2018-19 there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales, 50,100 more than expected, due to a mixture of cold weather, prolonged austerity and seasonal respiratory viruses. As of 15 March there were 15 deaths from Coronovirus; but pandemics grow exponentially...

Handwashing : a roaring success
The government's scaling back of testing has fuelled further uncertainty...
The handwashing campaign at least has been a roaring success... Early figures suggest it may have delayed the surge of Covid-19 and is likely to have reduced the incidence of seasonal influenza, food poisoning, hepatitis A , threadworm and pubic hair in Caesar salad...
The week ending 10 Jan 2020 was the worst this year so far, with 14,058 deaths. But it's fallen every week since to 10,816 in the week ended 28 Feb, Deaths are actually lower this year than the average for the previous 5 years. I like to think it's the handwashing.

For the UK public at large, the risk of a coronovirus death remains low. The predicted range is that out of every 100 random Brits, 99 won't die of Covid-19 this year (worst scenario) to out of every 1000 people 999 won't die of Covid-19 (best scenario.) Those at highest risk are in their eighties, unsurprising since the average life expectancy in the UK is 80.96 years.

Keep it up
Laughter is the best medicine - unless of course you have syphilis, in which case it's penicillin. There are no effective drugs yet... the best ways to to boost your immune system are not the nonsense new age supplements doing the rounds (there's a $200 magic yoghurt pill you can shove up your arse) but laughter and sex...
Coronovirus may yet teach us to behave in a kinder, gentler, less consumptive way"

I strongly recommend that people get access to the whole page. Library, shop or subscription... but I see that JonathanH has found it for posting while I was typing... thanks!
I loved
"The second drug my GP surgery ran out of (after paracetamol) was Viagra. The best position for reduced transmission and improved lung function is the wheelbarrow. Just don’t go past your mum’s house"
but maybe that's just the way my mind works.
 
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Belperpete

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Yes, the chances of dying from the virus are, for most people, small. But it takes only a miniscule increase to overwhelm our hospitals - we see that every year with flu. Now add the Coro victims onto those numbers needing treatment. That means that all those people who won't die of the virus, but who are involved in a traffic accident, fall off a ladder, break their leg playing footy or just falling down the stairs, etc. probably won't even get to see an ambulance let alone the queue to get into a hospital, as the whole system will be choked full of those that have already been admitted with Coro. Likewise those people who get diagnosed with cancer, or other serious illnesses. That is why it is in ALL our interests to keep the number of coro cases down, as no matter how fit and healthy you might be, you never know when you might unexpectedly need medical treatment.
 

krus_aragon

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That is why it is in ALL our interests to keep the number of coro cases down, as no matter how fit and healthy you might be, you never know when you might unexpectedly need medical treatment.
As it happens, I know we'll be heading to hospital by June: We've got a baby on the way. After nine months, there's no way to keep those self-isolated!
 

Belperpete

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As it happens, I know we'll be heading to hospital by June: We've got a baby on the way. After nine months, there's no way to keep those self-isolated!
I would have thought the NHS would be prioritising home deliveries, to reduce the load on hospitals. Accepted that some riskier pregnancies will require hospital facilities in case.
 

lyndhurst25

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I wonder why that is, in a private vehicle on your own. Are we anticipating a fuel shortage?

When fuel-tanker drivers start to get sick and can't work then there may be disruption to petrol supplies. When people see that some filling stations have run out then there is likely to be panic buying of fuel, worsening the situation. I'd hope that the MoD are on standby to take over fuel deliveries if the need arises.
 

Techniquest

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Well I've clearly put the world at risk then, as I travelled to my Mum's (approximately 20 miles each way) by bus yesterday. For just under half the journey it was just me and the driver, which after years of experience of that route felt strange. My little sister, she's on a week off and travelled from Cheshire by train a couple of days ago for Mother's Day. So she clearly committed a sinful action then too!

It's worth adding that she came down not just for Mother's Day but also to support our Mum in a post-op situation. My brother has various issues and also needs looking after. He spends almost all his time on the PS4 but he couldn't live on his own, god no. Chatting to online friends while they play games is pretty much his only social interaction, anxiety and other issues plays a key role in not liking to interact with other people. However, he still needs help with some things, so while Mum recovers from a cataract (I'm sure that's spelt wrong) operation in one eye (due to happen tomorrow) my sister's here to make sure daily life carries on as normal.

So if she's done wrong by you lot, then I cannot agree. My travelling up, yeah perhaps it could have been avoided but I've also come up to provide support with things last night and today. I'm day off today, following a recent shift swap, and work would have loved me to go in on overtime, but there is still a need not to be at work continuously, even I like to spend time with family. If one of us was ill with anything at all I'd have not done it, for obvious reasons, but physically we're all healthy. Supporting family mentally, that still needs doing, and it can't always be done by phone/text/whatever.

Back to work at 4am for me, and I'm almost guaranteed to be doing well over 40 hours this week coming, and with the big payday weekend only 5 days away...End of month weekends are evil anyway, but add in all the current issues and it's going to be hell on Earth.

Which reminds me, I saw on the cover of a newspaper I served someone on checkouts yesterday the headline suggesting the entire country could do with an alcoholic drink. Yeah, no, you'd be surprised how many of us don't partake. I stopped almost at the beginning of the year, and by god I'm better off for it. Most of my squad don't drink, with possible exception for a little bit of something with their Christmas dinner, and the amount of customers I served who don't drink so the pubs thing doesn't affect them was surprising. Obviously, I also served a ton of people alcoholic beverages, but the number of non-drinkers is getting higher and higher it seems. I do wonder whether more people will find something other than drinking to do now...

I've been saying for a while until the coffee starts running out that I'm not going to worry. I've got 400g of coffee in my cupboard and at the moment I have plenty of stock in my shop so it's all good.

So, should I have stayed in Hereford today, and gone to work? Should I have put myself at risk, being surrounded by customers with kids at home with the virus and they've left him there while they go shopping (shouldn't they have stayed indoors?) and potentially spread it to others? Should I have cut off any time with the family whatsoever? Well my decision was obviously to visit, whether it was the wrong one is up to others to decide, but as far as I'm concerned I made the right decision.
 

Bletchleyite

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When fuel-tanker drivers start to get sick and can't work then there may be disruption to petrol supplies. When people see that some filling stations have run out then there is likely to be panic buying of fuel, worsening the situation. I'd hope that the MoD are on standby to take over fuel deliveries if the need arises.

I'd suggest starting rationing before that. You get fuel if you can prove you need it[1], not otherwise. And don't give any notice before introducing it.

Same with public transport - no travel unless you have proof of need.

[1] If you're able bodied and it's within say 2 miles, walk to the shops. It'll manage panic buying if you can only buy what you can carry. And you'll get exercise.
 

Ianno87

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I would have thought the NHS would be prioritising home deliveries, to reduce the load on hospitals. Accepted that some riskier pregnancies will require hospital facilities in case.

No, home deliveries are far more labour-intensive, if a midwife needs to be at every single one.

Addenbrooke's Hospital in Cambridge has a 'Birth Centre' that is almost like a 'pit stop' way for having babies, with a common pool off staff covering. Most people are in and out within 24 hours. Only complex deliveries (or those with medical risk) are done on the proper Delivery Unit.
 

Mogster

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Yes, the chances of dying from the virus are, for most people, small. But it takes only a miniscule increase to overwhelm our hospitals - we see that every year with flu. Now add the Coro victims onto those numbers needing treatment. That means that all those people who won't die of the virus, but who are involved in a traffic accident, fall off a ladder, break their leg playing footy or just falling down the stairs, etc. probably won't even get to see an ambulance let alone the queue to get into a hospital, as the whole system will be choked full of those that have already been admitted with Coro. Likewise those people who get diagnosed with cancer, or other serious illnesses. That is why it is in ALL our interests to keep the number of coro cases down, as no matter how fit and healthy you might be, you never know when you might unexpectedly need medical treatment.

If health services are overwhelmed now then how do they cope in a bad flu season when we can have 50-100,000 excess deaths over and above the 500,000 average per year. I’m not sure how an excess death is actually calculated, maybe by reviewing age and underlying condition stats.

I can see the developing situation in Italy, London and New York and just hope the WHO and Governments of developed countries are correct in their thinking and this isn’t a massive overreaction. At the moment we’ve crashed the world economy for only around 15,000 reported deaths worldwide, mostly in high risk groups with ages around average life expectancy.
 
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