Travel habits after COVID-19

Bald Rick · 2 Apr 2020

There have been lots of comments in several virus related threads hypothesising that the railways will see a significant drop in passenger demand in the medium to long term when the travel restrictions are withdrawn.

I’m genuinely interested to see whether that will be the case or not. Personally, I don’t think there will be.

So, the question is, when “this is all over”, ie when the stay at home / social distancing advice is officially withdrawn in full, do you plan to use the railways any differently than prior to the virus? This is an individual question for you, not what you think others might do. Please think about the real journeys you made up until last month, and whether you will still make similar journeys when we are in the sunny uplands of a healthy country. Assume the restrictions are off no later than September this year.

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PaulMc7 · 3 Apr 2020

I know for me, I won't use the trains more as buses near me are more frequent and suit my journeys more but the way I see it is that if we get through this as quickly as possible(June/July), train journeys will be more common for people as a lot of us are already very bored indoors and desperate to go traveling and the good weather always increases that. I also think that if money isn't a major problem for people they'll still be able to afford what they do every summer travel-wise but if things go on longer then it could take a lot longer to build travel patterns back up. I think as long as people get to live 5/6 weeks of summer as they normally would travel will be in a good position to happen so train passenger numbers won't be too bad

yorksrob · 3 Apr 2020

Interesting piece on the BBC about this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52137968

BBC said:
The aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis will transform the way we live, work and travel in the UK, the AA says.

It predicts a permanent reduction in the demand for travel because people have learned during the crisis to use home-working technology.

The implications are profound for commuters and for government finances.

The Chancellor currently plans to spend £27bn to curb congestion on roads and £100bn on HS2 – but if demand falls, that may not be needed.

AA President Edmund King says anecdotal evidence from people lucky enough to be working during the coronavirus-enforced lockdown suggests that infrastructure funds might be better spent on broadband to support home working.

He told BBC News: "Arguably in future, we should invest more in broadband because what this current crisis has shown is that the majority of companies can continue working from home, and it can be more efficient."

But the government's former infrastructure tsar, Andrew Adonis, said it was too soon to forecast a permanent drop in traffic due to an increase in home working.

He told us: "Lots of people are working out how to use Skype and Zoom, so this could improve productivity – but on the other hand, other people can’t wait to get back to the office.

“I’m sceptical whether travel demand will drop sufficiently to counteract population growth in the UK." More people generally equals more travel.

Image copyright Getty Images
Other experts are calling for the roads programme and HS2 rail project to be put on hold for a decade so ministers can be sure they’re not wasting money.

They say if commuters spend just one day a week working from home after the crisis - or commuting later - the roads will be as empty as they are in the school holidays.

If transport infrastructure plans are scrapped or scaled down, that could also help plug the inevitable gulf in public finances caused by the virus.

Mr King continued: “It really is extraordinary. Every day is like Christmas Day since the lockdown.

"People travelling up and down motorways just to hold meetings is inefficient, expensive and not good for the environment. I think use of roads and rail and indeed bus will be reduced after this crisis."

I think there might be an increase in working from home, but nowhere near to the extent that some people think.

It also seems to be a very commuter centric view of the railway. For those calling for a large reduction in investment, it doesn't take account of those routes which struggle to cope outside of the peak hours.

Also, if people spend all their working week in the home, that's likely to prompt more of an urge for a change of scene on days off, so perhaps a shift to spending on leisure travel will be necessary.

Bald Rick · 3 Apr 2020

Results so far seem to support the view that travel habits won’t change. However the sample size is small; more votes required!

fishquinn · 3 Apr 2020

Bald Rick said:
Results so far seem to support the view that travel habits won’t change. However the sample size is small; more votes required!

I'd suggest that a rail forum is also a highly biased (and small) sample to pick from though. I'd imagine many work on the railway or travel on trains for 'enthusiast purposes' so a better sample group would be that of a non transport related forum (or better, a random sample of people from the general populous).

Bald Rick · 3 Apr 2020

fishquinn said:
I'd suggest that a rail forum is also a highly biased (and small) sample to pick from though. I'd imagine many work on the railway or travel on trains for 'enthusiast purposes' so a better sample group would be that of a non transport related forum (or better, a random sample of people from the general populous).

Yep, agreed. However, I still thinks it’s interesting to find out the views here.

scotrail158713 · 3 Apr 2020

I can’t really see my usage changing - much like @PaulMc7 buses are more convenient for a lot of my journeys so I use trains fairly infrequently anyway.

Dr Day · 3 Apr 2020

Depends on the impact on the economy on whether I still have a job or not! Assuming I do, personal leisure travel will probably stay the same, but see business-related travel for meetings being reduced and replaced by video calls, along with less daily commuting.

hexagon789 · 3 Apr 2020

I can see rail travel dropping off a bit but I think car travel will return to pre-virus levels.

Ianno87 · 3 Apr 2020

I could imagine my business use of the railway may fall slightly, with a greater push for Skype/Teams meetings (though we already did alot of that anyway).

Leisure, I fully intend to travel more than ever!

yorksrob said:
Interesting piece on the BBC about this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52137968

I think there might be an increase in working from home, but nowhere near to the extent that some people think.

It also seems to be a very commuter centric view of the railway. For those calling for a large reduction in investment, it doesn't take account of those routes which struggle to cope outside of the peak hours.

Also, if people spend all their working week in the home, that's likely to prompt more of an urge for a change of scene on days off, so perhaps a shift to spending on leisure travel will be necessary.

Agree - I think post-Covid 19 may strengthen the case for things like HS2, as workers shift towards longer commutes to the office once or twice a week and make use of working time on the train, rather than a short commute 5 days a week. And yes, less travel in the week giving more inclination to travel at weekends.

Mojo · 3 Apr 2020

I’m also wondering, if along the same lines, employers will notice how much less productive their employees are when they are working from home.

One thing I’ve noticed from watching people on Webcams on TV and also from seeing other people do it is how the technology is not particularly reliable, with lots of people seemingly having IT problems. Certainly video calls seem a lot less efficient than a real meeting because of people over-speaking, time lags in videos and sound, people randomly dropping out part way through, and so on.

SuperNova · 3 Apr 2020

I think some companies that previously didn't allow home working would do so now and I think some companies will allow more flexible working hours which is good news for congestion on the roads and for peak time transport journeys.

However, I can't see a permanent switch because the reality is - the technology in place isn't up to scratch. My friends company can't securely get everyone on their VPN so are having to do it in shifts, and Zoom teleconferencing can be unreliable. You might get people doing one or two days more at work but the assumption it will drastically change is pie in the sky thinking.

Plus, I imagine after being cooped up for months - the office will be desirable to many workers!

smsm1 · 3 Apr 2020

Mojo said:
I’m also wondering, if along the same lines, employers will notice how much less productive their employees are when they are working from home.

One thing I’ve noticed from watching people on Webcams on TV and also from seeing other people do it is how the technology is not particularly reliable, with lots of people seemingly having IT problems. Certainly video calls seem a lot less efficient than a real meeting because of people over-speaking, time lags in videos and sound, people randomly dropping out part way through, and so on.

I think some of those issues are due to many people choosing to go for the cheapest internet connection at home, rather than one that's fast enough for the needs of video calling. The roll out of fibre to the home and stopping the sale of older, slower ADSL products should help with this aspect.

Some of the issues I've seen are in house wifi issues, some providers are starting to have products to support this, however there is an extra cost to them.

Part of the interrupting is learning a new form of ettiquete and using features in the video conferencing tools, such as being able to indicate that you'd like to talk, and having a meeting lead can help.

We're getting more used to it in our company and hoping that it'll allow more home working in the future by more people.

PTR 444 · 3 Apr 2020

There’s already some discussion here

https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...rain-travelling-habits-after-covid-19.202649/

Travel habits after COVID-19

When COVID-19 restrictions are withdrawn, how will your use of the railway change?

I will use it more often

I will use it, on average, the same

I will use it less frequently, up to 20% less

I will use it less frequently, up to 50% less

I will use it much less frequently (between 50% less and stop using it altogether)

Bald Rick

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RailUK Forums

PaulMc7

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yorksrob

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Bald Rick

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fishquinn

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Bald Rick

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scotrail158713

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Dr Day

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hexagon789

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Ianno87

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Mojo

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SuperNova

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smsm1

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PTR 444

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