If run by government we can keep the buses running.
For a bit of levity, I for one am not against a good metaphor and there's plenty to like about steak. Moving swiftly on...
I'm not usually one to chip in on these arguments, but "bailing out" seems a bit of a undercooked take. Rare, you could say. Three points:
- It's highly likely that, without revenue, some large operators would simply have stopped running commercial services (i.e. those not run under tender) by the end of next week. Small- and medium-sized operators may well have survived, particularly where there revenue base relies more heavily on contracted or tendered work. Could they continue to run commercial services while eviscerating their own cash reserves? Well, running for 2 weeks at 10%-ish commercial revenue has probably already done that. Meanwhile, those businesses have to lay off a lot of staff once the Jobs Retention Scheme ends, and programmes to improve services are placed on hold while the operation recovers.
- In the specific context of publicly traded transport companies, the largest shareholders are pension funds, FTSE (or Hang Seng, in the case of MTR) tracker funds, and charitable trusts (along with a decent amount of "retail" shareholders. They're simply not volatile enough in the markets (relative to the market as a whole) to attract profiteers (the interest from CVC in First Group reflects that business' increased volatility, but that's well discussed in other threads). Even so, the profit is ending up in pension funds, tracker funds, charitable funds, and small-scale individual investors.
- If the government would like to run the buses, they're welcome to buy them, the depots, the fuel, start paying the salaries... and the bill for that will make a £167m injection of cash to secure services for 12 weeks seem like a bargain.
So, with that in mind, let's let the operators collapse and have the government step in to run services:
- What's the mechanism for doing that? Assume the DfT has informed the operators they won't get a bailout and so you have maybe 10 days to formulate a plan. It probably involves Headquarters Standing Joint Command or a lot of taxis, which again, need to be co-ordinated - back to HQ SJC
- What happens at the end of the crisis?
I'm not saying there's not an answer to those questions - it's just that those aren't the questions you want to be dealing with in the context of a national crisis. There are, of course, some bus operators who (broadly speaking) know what they're doing and can crack on with this in exchange for a bit of revenue relief - which will end up coming back in corporation tax (from the business) and capital gains / income tax (from the shareholders). I don't believe in trickle-down economics (again, not an argument for this thread) but this is the theoretical mechanism justifying the government's spending.
Please can you tell me where this money is that apparently I'm getting?
Quite. It's likely that, if you are a shareholder in a publicly-traded transport company, then the immediate impact of this is:
- The value of your investment is now massively reduced
- It's unlikely any dividend will be paid
- Should those businesses fail, you will lose all your investment
In normal times, on the flip side, you get:
- Growth that (broadly speaking) tracks well with the rest of the economy
- A dividend that is (broadly speaking) usually modest but reliable
- An investment that provides an essential service, so is less likely to be thrown to the wolves in times of crisis, economic or otherwise.
Of course, as a First Group (or any other transport group) employee you're also getting employer contribution of your pension, but the above is still true.