That’s just not going to happen. People aren’t going to struggle to get fuel. And those that do can go electric
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Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut
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That’s just not going to happen. People aren’t going to struggle to get fuel. And those that do can go electric
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reddragon
Established Member
The petrol retailer association have already reported that 100's have closed mainly in rural areas. Apparently, they bought fuel at a high price before the crisis and since oil prices have now collapsed, they cannot sell the fuel so have shut down, leaving only the big boys / supermarkets open in some areas.That’s just not going to happen. People aren’t going to struggle to get fuel. And those that do can go electric
Yes, this will prompt the obvious switch to EVs in rural areas where a home charge is so much easier than driving to find a petrol station some miles away.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
That’s just not going to happen. People aren’t going to struggle to get fuel. And those that do can go electric
All petrol stations, pretty much, are going to close over the coming 10-20 years or so for that precise reason.
That said, the sites are very useful for convenience stores with parking, which is what most of them will end up becoming, I'd reckon. Many of them make very little on fuel and make it all on the shop anyway. A viable model going forward, assuming we do stay with the ownership model for cars (which TBH for all the talk of MaaS I think is likely as people simply like it), is probably to have an expanded cafe area with seating plus a convenience store, so you can spend say an hour there for a top-up charge and spend money while doing so.
Iskra
Established Member
Surely they will just become electric charging stations?
Charging tech will probably get a lot quicker.
Killingworth
Established Member
There are many pieces in the international jigsaw and the longer this goes on the more they get shaken up. When the virus has done its worst they'll be put together again, but I'm afraid a lot of pieces will be missing. We can speculate about outcomes and some will be more likely to happen.
Unfortunately we can't predict the full picture from where we are now. Far too many factors potentially interact. What is clear is that the state, indeed almost all states, have committed to vast expenditure to cover the short term. That sudden increase in spending means the national budget is massively out of balance. It's already clear the economic effects won't be cleared for years.
National priorities will require to be redefined. It's far too early to get into details while we're still descending into the crisis. But there will be changes and the balance between work creating projects and national benefit will cause infinite debate. Nobody likes higher taxes, but it will all have to be paid for.
In the meantime I still can't see fully restored timetables at the 1st March 2020 levels this year. In 6 months they possibly will be on some routes, but demand will be significantly less for a long time.
On cars, I'd expect second hand prices to be very much lower. If we think rail is being badly hit the effects on all aspects of the motor trade are going to be bad too, from manufacturers, dealers, and servicing to sales of fuel.
Let's hope we're all pleasantly surprised. First we need to arrest the spread of the virus and then start a selective unlocking of those who are doing jobs with low human contact and performed by the fittest.
Older people and those with vulnerable conditions will have to be very careful for much longer. There are a lot who will be very wary of travel, especially by public transport. That will have impact, especially on buses reliant on concessionary bus pass users to justify services.
We've hardly begun this crisis.
Unfortunately we can't predict the full picture from where we are now. Far too many factors potentially interact. What is clear is that the state, indeed almost all states, have committed to vast expenditure to cover the short term. That sudden increase in spending means the national budget is massively out of balance. It's already clear the economic effects won't be cleared for years.
National priorities will require to be redefined. It's far too early to get into details while we're still descending into the crisis. But there will be changes and the balance between work creating projects and national benefit will cause infinite debate. Nobody likes higher taxes, but it will all have to be paid for.
In the meantime I still can't see fully restored timetables at the 1st March 2020 levels this year. In 6 months they possibly will be on some routes, but demand will be significantly less for a long time.
On cars, I'd expect second hand prices to be very much lower. If we think rail is being badly hit the effects on all aspects of the motor trade are going to be bad too, from manufacturers, dealers, and servicing to sales of fuel.
Let's hope we're all pleasantly surprised. First we need to arrest the spread of the virus and then start a selective unlocking of those who are doing jobs with low human contact and performed by the fittest.
Older people and those with vulnerable conditions will have to be very careful for much longer. There are a lot who will be very wary of travel, especially by public transport. That will have impact, especially on buses reliant on concessionary bus pass users to justify services.
We've hardly begun this crisis.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
They'll make more money if they offer other services while waiting for your charge. It takes about a minute to fuel a car at the moment and this is still a massive profit centre. Even if it takes 15 minutes, that's a potentially large market.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
That's why I said 10-20 years, as that's the period of time it takes for a new vehicle to filter through the second hand market to scrap in most cases. There will be (unless banned outright) classics still on the road, but that doesn't require the same distribution mechanism to be available. you might for instance have to order fuel for home delivery or something, or perhaps those garages/workshops who work on classics of various types will sell the fuel for them.
Looking at some of the predictions on the tinternet. In around 20yrs 40% of cars on the road will still be traditional ICE vehicles. The UK ban won't be in place until 2035. You still have to convince an entire nation to change their cars. Economically that may not be viable for everyone. Politically that may push the goalpost back a bit. Infrastructure wise there is also a long way to go. Again, that will push back any target dates.
I also believe that other issues surrounding electric vehicles will emerge.
I also believe that other issues surrounding electric vehicles will emerge.
Another open access operator ?
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
No great surprise there. Neither OAO is likely to collapse as they are backed by big groups (Hull Trains by First, GC by Arriva) but it's likely both have reached the point where furloughing all the staff is cheaper than continuing to operate.
Iskra
Established Member
Bad timing for GC. After a troubled and expensive start they just start making money and then this happens.
I'm surprised that even the AA are saying demand for road (and other) transport will be reduced
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52137968 says
There will be a reduction due to the economic contraction, but not so much in terms of alternative ways of working. You can’t visit the beach virtually.
Speaking very locally, almost all the traffic problems near me are due to schools traffic. It’s the same in manu places around the country. That will return as soon as they reopen.
It will be a long time before anyone is allowed to go to the beach. Maybe years. I see a gradual release of restrictions and many people continuing to work from home.
I certainly wouldn't want to catch coronavirus until we know more about it. If my employer is happy with colleagues continuing to work at home, that means that I would probably stay at home and only make essential journeys for maybe two years.
Beaches will be one of the earlier reopenings. Good for morale, easy distancing, outdoors.
Might need to work on toilet provision though
Not seeing WFH drastically reducing car use. Those who did commute by car will be used to the convenience of shopping/visiting at short notice by car on way home, many of those who used to commute by public transport will find they need a car for all those things they used to pop out at lunchtime for or pick up between the office and the station.
The news regarding Grand Central is worthy of it's own thread so please see here for further discussion.
On a general point if we do get to the stage of any TOCs withdrawing their service completely that would also warrant a new thread so anyone who wants to report that if it happens please start a new thread but do feel free to drop a note in this one about it along with a link to the new thread.
Thanks,
ainsworth74
On a general point if we do get to the stage of any TOCs withdrawing their service completely that would also warrant a new thread so anyone who wants to report that if it happens please start a new thread but do feel free to drop a note in this one about it along with a link to the new thread.
Thanks,
ainsworth74
We’ll have to disagree. Leaving aside that people are on the beach right now, I’d be very surprised if the ‘stay at home’ advice is not withdrawn within 3 months. That’s not to say that they might not return of course.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I think people on British beaches, spaced out suitably, may well return fairly soon. But a weekend away to the Costa del Sol? Much less so.
I agree that the current restrictions will have to be relaxed. I don't think we will go to 'free-for-all' movement for ages. Social distancing has to continue for some time and frankly the more people that choose to and can stay at home and keep out of the way, the less pressure there will be on the health service. That means that there won't be a quick return for passenger numbers.
I would love to think that that is not the case but there aren't any signs that the virus is going away any time soon or that we know what circumstances (other than age) lead to a bad reaction and hospitalisation.
Butts
Veteran Member
Do you think Flights to the USA will be restored by August and Florida Theme Parks reopen ?
Have cheap fares vanished on the Long Distance Rail Services ? - in the UK
reddragon
Established Member
Charging stations need a good grid supply, which does not always match a petrol station location.
In towns / cities most people will charge at home overnight or via roadside charge points so charge stations will not exist like a petrol station. Charge stations will more likely be on main routes when longer journeys are required.
This is likely to change the economics of getting an electric car, even if you live somewhere with two garages and one closes then the time taken to fill up at the remaining garage bay well be a factor (such as having to ensure that you don't fill up on the way to work).
Another factor could be that fuel costs could be much higher, as there's then no competition, this could further shift the economics towards electric cars.
As that expands it would then impact on more garages (maybe even closing the second garage in the village) pushing more towards electric cars and public transport.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I would very much doubt it. Or if they have, they will come at the cost of 14 days' quarantine on arrival at both ends.
reddragon
Established Member
Due to Trump saying the virus was fake news and the poor health system in the US, they are looking at a far worse outcome than any of us in Europe.
The UK expectation is little will open up until September, so the US could be far worse. Currently NY is hit bad, but that will spread state by state so it depends on how Florida etc deal with it and their infection / death / treatment curve or any second / third / forth peaks.
There is a lot of talk about 18 months to 2 years.
Flights to the USA are likely to be restricted for a long time. Especially given that many States haven't seen many cases yet and so may well be weeks, months or even a year behind Europe.
Cheap fares for the UK's railways probably won't be offered until travel is now widely allowed.
reddragon
Established Member
My village has gone from 2 to 8 EVs this year so far. With no local Petrol stations, filling up en-route is essential. My wife can take an hour to go and get petrol and has no Petrol stations on her regular routes. I have an EV, so charge at home and she is desperate to switch to avoid the late evening trip when she runs low. That Petrol Station is likely to close now and become housing.
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