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Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut

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Running Pete

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We’ll have to disagree. Leaving aside that people are on the beach right now, I’d be very surprised if the ‘stay at home’ advice is not withdrawn within 3 months. That’s not to say that they might not return of course.
I feel the stay at home disciplines will break down within a month, a couple of sunny days will have people out and about.
 
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Running Pete

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Also, depending on the eventual outcome of all this, a significant number of the "senior railcard" brigade will have fallen by the wayside. I include myself in that, before anyone accuses me of being ageist.
Will there be extensions to the renewal dates of railcard?
 

Meerkat

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I would very much doubt it. Or if they have, they will come at the cost of 14 days' quarantine on arrival at both ends.

Do you reckon the rapid development of testing kits will mean that within a few months there will be enough available that you get tested at check in, wait in a spaced out lounge, and then only the negatives get on the flight? Obviously capacity would be restricted, cost higher, and you risk failing a test and getting stuck at the wrong end (and paying for quarantine/treatment), but it would get more important travel going again.
How quickly do you fail a test after being infected? Ie would the destination country still need quarantine after a negative test?
 

Bletchleyite

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Do you reckon the rapid development of testing kits will mean that within a few months there will be enough available that you get tested at check in, wait in a spaced out lounge, and then only the negatives get on the flight? Obviously capacity would be restricted, cost higher, and you risk failing a test and getting stuck at the wrong end (and paying for quarantine/treatment), but it would get more important travel going again.
How quickly do you fail a test after being infected? Ie would the destination country still need quarantine after a negative test?

The quick test kits are for antibodies, they are not effective for finding out if you presently have it as the antibodies take a short while to build.
 

Meerkat

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The quick test kits are for antibodies, they are not effective for finding out if you presently have it as the antibodies take a short while to build.
Pretty sure I read that someone had a 15 minute antigen test, certainly a 90 minute one which wouldn’t be a huge issue for long distance check in times.
 

The Ham

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Not seeing WFH drastically reducing car use. Those who did commute by car will be used to the convenience of shopping/visiting at short notice by car on way home, many of those who used to commute by public transport will find they need a car for all those things they used to pop out at lunchtime for or pick up between the office and the station.

I've explained this before.

If there's two people who commute to work by car and they then WFH 2 days a week they can then use one car for 4 out of 5 day a week. In that case what is more likely, one person then using public transport one day a week or having a second car which is only needed a few times a week?

Chances are there'll be quite a few who will opt for the public transport option. Not everyone certainly but enough that it would offset much of the losses from the trains.

As I've said before 80% is by car and 10% is by rail. Even a 20% drop in rail use (2% of the total, or the same as everyone who uses rail working from home 1 day a week) would only need 12.5% of car use to switch to rail 1 day a week (2% of the total) to keep rail at its previous levels.

That still leaves households with the option of just popping out for the vast majority of their travel, however there could be times when they'd have to plan ahead a bit more and use public. However that would likely be the minority of case and so probably wouldn't make a significant impact on their ability to go about nearly the same as before.

As I've said that won't be everyone by a long way however there'll be other people for whom for other reasons that they could reduce the numbers of cars that they own, which would also increase rail use occasional.

There's also going to be those who struggled with continuing to pay for their cars whilst their neighbours day at home with much reduced outgoings due to not paying their public transport season ticket costs and wondering what happens if there's a second wave or a different Pandemic? Would they not be better off using other modes of transport. Especially given that office workers are likely to be amongst the last to be released from their restrictions.

If this goes on for 9 months then that's 1/4 of the time of a 3 year car lease which people would have been paying £100 to £200 maybe even £300 a month and not really being able to use it enough to justify that cost. There's going to be quite a few who just don't renew their leases until this is all over. Even 20% of petite with leases not renewing that a 5% drop in lease cars on the roads. Now many of those will restart once this is over but there'll be quite a few who won't.
 

Meerkat

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If there's two people who commute to work by car and they then WFH 2 days a week they can then use one car for 4 out of 5 day a week.
That assumes that they have the flexibility to have different WFH days, and that the WFH days are fixed, rather than having to pop in for random events - meetings, training etc

In that case what is more likely, one person then using public transport one day a week or having a second car
Second car. People like cars

There's also going to be those who struggled with continuing to pay for their cars whilst their neighbours day at home with much reduced outgoings due to not paying their public transport season ticket costs
Take a loan to buy out the lease at the end. If you use a car less the costs drop quite a lot - fuel, insurance, repairs, you don’t replace it so often.

You do of course have a point, I just think it’s going to be marginal, and offset by those now spending all their time on a suburban housing estate who now ‘need’ a car to do the things they used to do in the town/city their office was in, plus a greater desire to socialise in the evenings.
 

Bletchleyite

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You do of course have a point, I just think it’s going to be marginal, and offset by those now spending all their time on a suburban housing estate who now ‘need’ a car to do the things they used to do in the town/city their office was in, plus a greater desire to socialise in the evenings.

How many people socialise out every night of the week? Not many, I'd imagine, barring the classic old bloke sat in the corner at Spoons.

You'd simply socialise on the nights you're working in the office (and perhaps indeed choose the days in work, if you can, based on that).
 

Meerkat

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How many people socialise out every night of the week? Not many, I'd imagine, barring the classic old bloke sat in the corner at Spoons.

You'd simply socialise on the nights you're working in the office (and perhaps indeed choose the days in work, if you can, based on that).
If they don’t see people all day (and ‘get home’ earlier) I think there will be more demand for meeting up (not with work bods) and classes etc etc.
 

The Ham

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That assumes that they have the flexibility to have different WFH days, and that the WFH days are fixed, rather than having to pop in for random events - meetings, training etc


Second car. People like cars


Take a loan to buy out the lease at the end. If you use a car less the costs drop quite a lot - fuel, insurance, repairs, you don’t replace it so often.

You do of course have a point, I just think it’s going to be marginal, and offset by those now spending all their time on a suburban housing estate who now ‘need’ a car to do the things they used to do in the town/city their office was in, plus a greater desire to socialise in the evenings.

Most companies like to know where their staff are working and so would probably like fixed days.

Meetings and training are likely to be fairly infrequent, with Zoom/Teams meetings being fairly common currently and I suspect that they'll carry on supporting those who do work from home to be able to continue to use them on the days that they are working from home.

However then a lot of training is going to be infrequent and so a (say) a dozen extra days of rail travel for each person. Even if one can't use rail for travel a hire car would work out a lot cheaper than two cars.

Whilst people do like cars and so many may well still have two cars there's still a good chance that there'll be a good number who will accept going by train one day a week over spending out £1,500 a year to own a car which may not be used for 36 hours at a time, maybe even longer.
 

_toommm_

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CrossCountry Update from this morning:

From Monday 6 April, until further notice, CrossCountry train services will continue to operate throughout the day but at a reduced frequency and will not be serving Audley End, Stansted Airport, Doncaster, Bath Spa, Torquay, Paignton, Guildford, stations west of Plymouth, or beyond Edinburgh to Glasgow, Dundee or Aberdeen.

An hourly train service will be operating on the following routes:
• Manchester Piccadilly – Bournemouth
• Plymouth – Edinburgh Waverley
• Birmingham New Street – Nottingham
• Birmingham New Street – Leicester

A service every two hours will operate on the following routes:

• Leicester-Cambridge
• Birmingham New Street – Cardiff Central

Services between Cheltenham Spa and Cardiff Central will be timed for alternate hours to the Transport for Wales services.[QUOTE/]
 

reddragon

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That assumes that they have the flexibility to have different WFH days, and that the WFH days are fixed, rather than having to pop in for random events - meetings, training etc


Second car. People like cars


Take a loan to buy out the lease at the end. If you use a car less the costs drop quite a lot - fuel, insurance, repairs, you don’t replace it so often.

You do of course have a point, I just think it’s going to be marginal, and offset by those now spending all their time on a suburban housing estate who now ‘need’ a car to do the things they used to do in the town/city their office was in, plus a greater desire to socialise in the evenings.

We have been told that all meetings and training will now be available online going forward even after this is over as the company has realised the savings by not travelling are huge and that more gets done.

Sorry, older people like cars, younger people want to travel whilst online.

Shopping, really? Shops will be gone as we'll shop online, petrol stations will go, travel will be for pleasure not work!
 

Meole

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A really significant increase in road fuel duty after the big spend is inevitable, the debt has to be paid for, and the green argument is a further justification. The effect of the floods on insurance rates, including motoring, has yet to be seen as well.
 

ainsworth74

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A really significant increase in road fuel duty after the big spend is inevitable, the debt has to be paid for, and the green argument is a further justification.

Plus it's been held at the same level since what? 2011? Surely the time has come for a bump in that? And I speak as a car owner!
 

Bletchleyite

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Plus it's been held at the same level since what? 2011? Surely the time has come for a bump in that? And I speak as a car owner!

One thing I don't get is why this sort of thing (alcohol and cigarette duty, too) is set as a "pence per item" rather than a percentage. If it was set as a percentage inflation would just deal with itself with no need to prat with it over time and far less controversy.
 

Jamesrob637

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How many people socialise out every night of the week? Not many, I'd imagine, barring the classic old bloke sat in the corner at Spoons.

You'd simply socialise on the nights you're working in the office (and perhaps indeed choose the days in work, if you can, based on that).

The classic old bloke in t'corner of t'Wetherspoon :D:D until Saturday when his place gets taken by a hen party or a group of rugby lads!
 

jon0844

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We have been told that all meetings and training will now be available online going forward even after this is over as the company has realised the savings by not travelling are huge and that more gets done.

Sorry, older people like cars, younger people want to travel whilst online.

Shopping, really? Shops will be gone as we'll shop online, petrol stations will go, travel will be for pleasure not work!

Shops won't entirely disappear. I don't want to pay a fortune to get a pint of milk delivered from Amazon in two hours. And we won't get rid of all cars, even if petrol stations of the future might adapt and become more like car parks with rapid chargers (either wired or inductive).

I agree that more and more people want to be online doing something when travelling, but cars and other vehicles will have a place (and, no, I'm not pretending cars will be driving themselves entirely autonomously anytime soon).

I also think that for every company that realises home working and conference calls can save a fortune, there will be many businesses (or people) that will come out thinking that, for their circumstances, home working doesn't work well. It doesn't suit everyone, and even if a meeting can be done online there will always be times when you need a face-to-face for dealing with certain things.

What we can agree on is that there will be some big changes ahead.
 

The Ham

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Shops won't entirely disappear. I don't want to pay a fortune to get a pint of milk delivered from Amazon in two hours. And we won't get rid of all cars, even if petrol stations of the future might adapt and become more like car parks with rapid chargers (either wired or inductive).

I agree that more and more people want to be online doing something when travelling, but cars and other vehicles will have a place (and, no, I'm not pretending cars will be driving themselves entirely autonomously anytime soon).

I also think that for every company that realises home working and conference calls can save a fortune, there will be many businesses (or people) that will come out thinking that, for their circumstances, home working doesn't work well. It doesn't suit everyone, and even if a meeting can be done online there will always be times when you need a face-to-face for dealing with certain things.

What we can agree on is that there will be some big changes ahead.

Whilst I agree with much of what you've said I suspect that there's going to be more of a change than you suspect.

For instance food could be delivered by a local business (such as a butchers) covering a larger area than would be the case if they ran a shop.
 

Bantamzen

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The UK expectation is little will open up until September, so the US could be far worse. Currently NY is hit bad, but that will spread state by state so it depends on how Florida etc deal with it and their infection / death / treatment curve or any second / third / forth peaks.

There is a lot of talk about 18 months to 2 years.

Is it? If little opens up here in the UK for another 5 months then the economy will simply collapse. And if that happens people won't be sitting quietly at home.
 

RichT54

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Whilst I agree with much of what you've said I suspect that there's going to be more of a change than you suspect.

For instance food could be delivered by a local business (such as a butchers) covering a larger area than would be the case if they ran a shop.

That gave me a flashback to living on Romney Marsh in the late fifties, early sixties when a butcher's van and a greengrocer's lorry would visit the smaller villages once a week and the housewives would queue up to buy their meat and vegetables, instead of having to walk or take the bus to the shops.
 

Bletchleyite

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That gave me a flashback to living on Romney Marsh in the late fifties, early sixties when a butcher's van and a greengrocer's lorry would visit the smaller villages once a week and the housewives would queue up to buy their meat and vegetables, instead of having to walk or take the bus to the shops.

I was going to say that is a bit of a "back to the future", isn't it? Yes, I suspect many will stick with delivery as the big barrier to entry is setting it up.
 

The Ham

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That gave me a flashback to living on Romney Marsh in the late fifties, early sixties when a butcher's van and a greengrocer's lorry would visit the smaller villages once a week and the housewives would queue up to buy their meat and vegetables, instead of having to walk or take the bus to the shops.

I expect that there's going to be somethings which look to the past to go forward.
 

JonathanH

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Is it? If little opens up here in the UK for another 5 months then the economy will simply collapse. And if that happens people won't be sitting quietly at home.

People are going to have to adapt. There was a story on Newsnight last night about the need for vegetable pickers to take the place of overseas employees.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52109833

Some parts of the economy are adapting to the changes and offering different services. We may not need the (passenger) railway for a while.
 

reddragon

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Whilst I agree with much of what you've said I suspect that there's going to be more of a change than you suspect.

For instance food could be delivered by a local business (such as a butchers) covering a larger area than would be the case if they ran a shop.
My local butchers now home delivers, as do all other local businesses who can. Why would they still need a local high street shop. They have even set up a phone service for the older non-internet people. My mother is having home deliveries for the first time in her life and she has no internet.
 

reddragon

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Is it? If little opens up here in the UK for another 5 months then the economy will simply collapse. And if that happens people won't be sitting quietly at home.

You would be surprised how much business has adapted and people will have to as well.
 

Meerkat

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My local butchers now home delivers, as do all other local businesses who can. Why would they still need a local high street shop.
That’s fine if you can be in when they deliver. Click and collect is popular for a reason.
 
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