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Coronavirus.
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So that's where my one went!
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
This must presumably be an indication that there is no intention to tighten for a week or two, as these arriving and saying something different to online advice would cause no end of problems.
Peter Sarf
Established Member
Karl
On Moderation
Thanks for sharing. Appreciated.
Given the potential time of catching it to death being recorded in stats is 3-5 weeks, it will still be probably another week till the previous restrictions show if they are working as regards death stats. There are already signs that new admissions to hospital being tested and confirmed has been starting to level off for the past week. Also worth bearing in mind that some activities were slowing /shutting down before the lock down so the slowing of growth of case in the last few days may well be a partial reflection of what was happening the week before lock down.
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I would now agree, and would suspect that on the review date (13th) the present measures will be extended for another 3 weeks.
Agreed. That gives them a month to start getting some antibody testing done and results compiled.
Also worth noting the language Thursday afternoon onwards "easing" restrictions not "removing" which hint at limited relaxation. High spread opportunities will still need to be reduced as much as possible.
I also suspect that the initial spread in each country before it was recognised /seen a a problems will have a big impact on the case distribution and reproduction number between countries so lesson may not always be transferable without some careful analysis.
CaptainHaddock
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I'm not sure why 3 weeks seems to be the specific period for any lockdown. The end of the current lockdown is still a week away and already the figures do seem to be levelling off, so perhaps extending the lockdown slightly but continuing to review it on a weekly basis might make sense? Psychologically that would give more of a sense of hope to people struggling to cope mentally with the lockdown - the last thing you want, having got through 3 weeks of isolation is to be told you've got to do it all over again.
But they don't want peoples' hopes to be got up of easing before then. Otherwise there'll be uproar. The messaging needs to start now that it won't be over in a week's time.
That would only trigger the panic buying again.
The minimum time medically/scientifically that makes a difference but politically the longest that can be agreed to in one go (three weeks sounds less scary than a month)?
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
With regard to the science, it takes between 1-3 weeks (depending on the case) to filter through from infection to display of symptoms, and 3-5 weeks from infection to full recovery or death. So that delay is needed to have an effect on the figures. But yes, there's probably a bit of the classic "£149.99 sounds loads cheaper than £150.00" going on.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
Goodness Dominic Raab is dull and unimpressive. I thought Johnson was bad..........
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I was going to say he sounded measured, confident and competent. No bluster, but no stammering and hesitating either. Good.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
He is a dull man and about as competent as a drunk in an off licence. I know they had to push him out due to the situation with the PM but can we have Gove back. I know he is telling me lies but he knows how to broadcast!
Raab looks vacant most of the time, has slightly un foccusing eyes and has an almost rictus grin like face. urgh.
Now I am off to wash myself with detol for suggesting that Gove might be decent at something!
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Indeed. It would be far worse to be thinking 'maybe next week' for four weeks on the trot! Much better to be able to mentally prepare that we will be in it for another three weeks at least. In my house we are assuming this is going to be how it is until the end of May and as such have developed various coping strategies as we have two small children. If it ends earlier than that then horray double wammy
WatcherZero
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Head of New Yorks Health Committee has announced the city morgues (and 80 refrigerated lorries parked outside hospitals) are full and they are planning temporary 10 person mass graves in the citys parks.
That’s absolutely horrendous.
I think it depends on what you mean by the end of the lockdown. There is a huge difference economically between start and end of May. 6 weeks is probably getting towards the limit of how long many businesses can survive the current lockdown even with government help. The capacity of the NHS will increase significantly over the next month too. Id bet the first change will be saying low risk people in non essential jobs should now return to work, with the second change being allow small scale socialising of low risk people. That would allow a degree of normality to return while still having massive social distancing and protecting the most vulnerable. The 12 week lockdown for high risk people could be extended past mid June. I can't see the instruction to work from home if you can being lifted for several months, its effective combatting the virus and has limited economic effect.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
They already can. It's only specific categories of business which have been closed, primarily those working with the public. Many of the businesses that closed have chosen to do so, and this primarily started after the furlough scheme came into effect because low customer levels meant this was more financially viable than opening. Which I suspect was intentional!
I think in a nod to reinstating social lives we may, as an earlyish measure, see restaurants able to open but on reduced capacity (tables and chairs 2m apart) and advance booking mandatory perhaps? Some countries allowed them to stay open on this sort of basis.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
Michael Gove now self isolating
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
He’s isolating because a family member has symptoms, so not necessarily him or via him
Non essential public sector workers have been sent home. Some companies have played it safe too, not just for financial reasons. I think your right about restaurants, I think it will be outside tables and chairs first though (and 2m apart).
He isn't ill (yet). One of his family has symptoms.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
That's true. With summer on the way, outside eating might work and reduces risk because the wind blows it away.
Could start opening more shops too, as people get used to keeping 2m apart. What shops that aren’t already open get very crowded? Garden centres?
“Before you open you mark the queues, one way your aisles, protect your staff at checkouts.if you don’t do this you don’t open, and if you don’t enforce this you will be individually closed”
“Before you open you mark the queues, one way your aisles, protect your staff at checkouts.if you don’t do this you don’t open, and if you don’t enforce this you will be individually closed”
Saying that I do note that almost all chain restaurants, which under the present rules would be allowed to stay open for delivery or take-a-way, decided to close. They mostly seemed to stay open for a couple of days after the ban on restaurants was announced, so presumably decided it wasn’t worth it.
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