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Evaluating the risks: is it safer for key workers to travel by car, than by train?

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edwin_m

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I must say I disagree with the thread title: the risk associated with Covid is negligible, and lower than being killed in a car accident etc. in many cases, so talking in terms of “safety” is ridiculous in the extreme.
The statistics don't bear this out. Over 40,000 people have died from Covid and the average annual deaths on the roads is around 1,700.

You may want to argue other factors such as that most people catching Covid probably didn't do so on public transport, but without supporting evidence your statement doesn't stand up.
 
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43066

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The statistics don't bear this out. Over 40,000 people have died from Covid and the average annual deaths on the roads is around 1,700.

You may want to argue other factors such as that most people catching Covid probably didn't do so on public transport, but without supporting evidence your statement doesn't stand up.

I did say “in many cases” - that statistic is in relation to those who are not elderly and not otherwise high risk - the risk to these groups really is infinitesimal.

Apologies for the daily heil reference:


Sir David said under-40s were more likely to die in a car accident than from Covid-19 and for under-25s, the risk was lower than dying from flu or pneumonia.

The professor said his analysis reinforced 'the extraordinary impact of age on the risk of catching and dying from Covid'.
[/UNQUOTE]
 

Djgr

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I would suggest that unlike most posts on this forum this question can be answered by statistics.

And the point is well made that the relative risk equation from car v train is highly dependent on your age, underlying health conditions, size of beer belly etc.

If you are young, healthy and fit then it is way way safer to travel by rail. If you are the opposite then the opposite applies. There is a clearly a cut off point which could be calculated statistically by people with more time on their hands.
 

AdamWW

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I would suggest that unlike most posts on this forum this question can be answered by statistics.

And the point is well made that the relative risk equation from car v train is highly dependent on your age, underlying health conditions, size of beer belly etc.

But - if you die in a car crash on your way to work in a care home you won't pass that on to a resident.

If you contract coronavirus on the train it might not even make you ill, but you may give it to someone else who is more susceptible.
 

yorksrob

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But - if you die in a car crash on your way to work in a care home you won't pass that on to a resident.

If you contract coronavirus on the train it might not even make you ill, but you may give it to someone else who is more susceptible.

No, but you might well crash into the person coming the other way and kill them !
 

Djgr

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But - if you die in a car crash on your way to work in a care home you won't pass that on to a resident.

If you contract coronavirus on the train it might not even make you ill, but you may give it to someone else who is more susceptible.

I would suggest that key workers is far broader than care home workers e.g. teachers and, for a whole host of reasons, care home workers rarely commute to work by rail anyway.
 

AdamWW

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I would suggest that key workers is far broader than care home workers e.g. teachers and, for a whole host of reasons, care home workers rarely commute to work by rail anyway.

I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion that I was trying to suggset that every "key worker" (whatever they are) works in a care home.

But for those who do work in close proximity to vulnurable people, in my view the risk analysis of whether to use public transport or not shouldn't be limited to their personal risk of dying on the journey.

Fair point that they probably aren't commuting by train anyway though.
 

Huntergreed

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I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion that I was trying to suggset that every "key worker" (whatever they are) works in a care home.

But for those who do work in close proximity to vulnurable people, in my view the risk analysis of whether to use public transport or not shouldn't be limited to their personal risk of dying on the journey.

Fair point that they probably aren't commuting by train anyway though.
Would you argue they should never travel by train in case they get infected with flu and then pass it on to residents?
 

AdamWW

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Would you argue they should never travel by train in case they get infected with flu and then pass it on to residents?

No.

And I didn't say they shouldn't travel by train in case they get infected with coronavirus either.
 

jumble

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The statistics don't bear this out. Over 40,000 people have died from Covid and the average annual deaths on the roads is around 1,700.

You may want to argue other factors such as that most people catching Covid probably didn't do so on public transport, but without supporting evidence your statement doesn't stand up.

No they have'nt
Over 40,000 people died with Covid
No one knows how many died from Covid
Remember the 40,000 is how many people died within 28 days of a positive covid test which is not the same as dying of Covid
 

Djgr

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No they have'nt
Over 40,000 people died with Covid
No one knows how many died from Covid
Remember the 40,000 is how many people died within 28 days of a positive covid test which is not the same as dying of Covid

I have seen nothing to suggest that public transport is a primary source of Covid infection.
 

talldave

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The statistics don't bear this out. Over 40,000 people have died from Covid and the average annual deaths on the roads is around 1,700.

You may want to argue other factors such as that most people catching Covid probably didn't do so on public transport, but without supporting evidence your statement doesn't stand up.
We're talking about the risk now. More people are currently dying on the roads daily than with Covid.
 

plugwash

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There has been 1 passenger fatality in the last 13.5 years on the railway, during which time there were an estimated 20 billion passenger journeys.
That seems to depend on what exact you count as a "passenger", if you assume that someone counts as a passenger from when they enter railway property intending to catch a train to when they leave railway property again afterwards then there seem to be two. The recent stonehaven deailment and an incident at liverpool james street where a girl leant on the train after alighting. I also wonder if your time window was cherry picked to exclude greyrigg.

And with such small numbers good statistics are hard, Out of the 7 people on the stonehaven train 3 died 3 died. The only reason it wasn't a disaster was that the train was virtually empty.

Still noone is disputing in terms of direct accident risk trains are much safer than cars and that the risk of dying in a rail accident is negligable.

The question which is much harder to answer is how the risk (both to the traveller and to their friends/family/colleagues) of catching covid on a train compares to the risk of a car accident. With the constantly changing prevalence of covid in the community, the great uncertainty about the relative importance of different spreading mechanisms and the huge individual factors (how much contact does a person have with vulnerable people) i'm not sure it is one that can be answered in general.
 

Djgr

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That seems to depend on what exact you count as a "passenger", if you assume that someone counts as a passenger from when they enter railway property intending to catch a train to when they leave railway property again afterwards then there seem to be two. The recent stonehaven deailment and an incident at liverpool james street where a girl leant on the train after alighting. I also wonder if your time window was cherry picked to exclude greyrigg.

And with such small numbers good statistics are hard, Out of the 7 people on the stonehaven train 3 died 3 died. The only reason it wasn't a disaster was that the train was virtually empty.

Still noone is disputing in terms of direct accident risk trains are much safer than cars and that the risk of dying in a rail accident is negligable.

The question which is much harder to answer is how the risk (both to the traveller and to their friends/family/colleagues) of catching covid on a train compares to the risk of a car accident. With the constantly changing prevalence of covid in the community, the great uncertainty about the relative importance of different spreading mechanisms and the huge individual factors (how much contact does a person have with vulnerable people) i'm not sure it is one that can be answered in general.
The various monthly/fortnightly railway magazines (buy your own!) are quoting a study that estimates that the chances of catching COVID19 from an individual rail journey as around 1 in 18000.

If this is the case then an enthusiast who travels on, say, a hundred trains a year, can on average expect to catch COVID from their hobby once every 90 years.
 

AdamWW

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The various monthly/fortnightly railway magazines (buy your own!) are quoting a study that estimates that the chances of catching COVID19 from an individual rail journey as around 1 in 18000.

If this is the case then an enthusiast who travels on, say, a hundred trains a year, can on average expect to catch COVID from their hobby once every 90 years.

It annoys me a bit to see intelligent, educated people, staying away from public transport because they are afraid they will catch COVID from it.
 

edwin_m

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No they have'nt
Over 40,000 people died with Covid
No one knows how many died from Covid
Remember the 40,000 is how many people died within 28 days of a positive covid test which is not the same as dying of Covid
And if you take the excess deaths it's over 60000.
We're talking about the risk now. More people are currently dying on the roads daily than with Covid.
1700 a year on the roads is about 4.6 per day. Current figure of people dying with Covid is twice that.

As it happens I do believe public transport is not a high risk for Covid as long as people wear masks. But quoting dubious statistics isn't going to make your case.
 

AdamWW

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Remember the 40,000 is how many people died within 28 days of a positive covid test which is not the same as dying of Covid

Are you sure?

I thought the daily PHE figures were based on positive Covid tests but the overall figures were based on what was given on the death certificate.
 

Richard Scott

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And if you take the excess deaths it's over 60000.
Don't forget those excess deaths include those who've died from cancer, heart attacks etc who didn't get/seek medical attention because those areas of hospital were closed. This is due to decisions made by supposedly intelligent humans not a virus.
 

185143

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But - if you die in a car crash on your way to work in a care home you won't pass that on to a resident.

If you contract coronavirus on the train it might not even make you ill, but you may give it to someone else who is more susceptible.
But if you die in a car crash on the way to work in a care home, you won't be able to save a resident's life should their condition suddenly worsen...
 

talldave

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And if you take the excess deaths it's over 60000.

1700 a year on the roads is about 4.6 per day. Current figure of people dying with Covid is twice that.

As it happens I do believe public transport is not a high risk for Covid as long as people wear masks. But quoting dubious statistics isn't going to make your case.
Believing that masks protect you isn't going to make yours.

BTW deaths have been at the 2,3,4 level for many days in the last few weeks,
 

edwin_m

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Believing that masks protect you isn't going to make yours.

BTW deaths have been at the 2,3,4 level for many days in the last few weeks,
You're right, masks protect other people.

The weekly rolling average of 9 deaths came off the BBC website for yesterday.

This thread has reminded me why I stopped reading Covid threads, and I intend to resume that practice now. What could have been a worthwhile statistical analysis is replaced by half-baked figures and invective.
 

AdamWW

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But if you die in a car crash on the way to work in a care home, you won't be able to save a resident's life should their condition suddenly worsen...

Nor if you die from contracting Covid on a train.
 

talldave

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You're right, masks protect other people.

The weekly rolling average of 9 deaths came off the BBC website for yesterday.

This thread has reminded me why I stopped reading Covid threads, and I intend to resume that practice now. What could have been a worthwhile statistical analysis is replaced by half-baked figures and invective.
And the BBC is always right? I get my figures from the horse's mouth.
 

yorksrob

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It strikes me that if you spend all your day working with members of the public, including those already infected, your journey on public transport is probably the least risky part of your journey.
 

MattA7

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Yes, and you don't have to wear a soggy mask and listen to over the top announcements and threats after every station that you stop at.
Apart from longer mainline journeys where the train still wins on journey time, the car is now a decent option.

I wonder if one of the few industries that are actually Benefiting from the pandemic is the rental car companies as many people who don’t normally drive with be renting cars to travel at the moment
 

RT4038

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I wonder if one of the few industries that are actually Benefiting from the pandemic is the rental car companies as many people who don’t normally drive with be renting cars to travel at the moment

Apparently having a boom.
 
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