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Worst weather forecasting

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matacaster

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I am tired of reading about snow armageddon and suchlike. Despite supercomputers, the predictions don't appear to match the reality for many, although the headline writers are most worthy of blame.
Which agencies are the worst?
I would like to nominate
Daily express
Huddersfield Examiner / Yorkshire live (their expert Paul stevens is a local joke)
But there are many others, please submit your comments!
 
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Trackman

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I don’t know if they have improved, but the BBC weather website was totally hopeless.
i.e. forecast: Sunny spells ends up snowing.
 

DarloRich

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I am tired of reading about snow armageddon and suchlike. Despite supercomputers, the predictions don't appear to match the reality for many, although the headline writers are most worthy of blame.
Which agencies are the worst?
I would like to nominate
Daily express
Huddersfield Examiner / Yorkshire live (their expert Paul stevens is a local joke)
But there are many others, please submit your comments!


none of that is meteorology. That is sensationalist journalism designed to get you to look at their website/paper and taking about their story. It clearly works.

I find the met office app on my phone is pretty accurate.
 

Richard Scott

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To be honest think they really struggle anyway more than 24 hours in advance as not quite an exact science. How many times have you checked long range forecast and that's actually what happens? Very few, I expect.
 

Cowley

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If I’m painting the outside of a house that’s a 45 minute drive away (say up on Dartmoor or somewhere), it’s fairly imperative that I get a decent idea of what the weather’s going to do that day, and I’ve generally found that after using a few different ones (including the Met Office that are actually based in Exeter) that the BBC weather app works best for my particular area.
I wonder if it’s more accurate down here than elsewhere though?
 

rcro

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Yr is good for weather trends and doesn’t generalise to the degree that BBC does. Met office site/app is best for forecasting rainfall for up to 24 hours since they made publicly available their radar data and predictions on a 1x1 km grid.

I’ve a bit of experience as a customer of the met office so can get the rainfall pretty much right based on expected trends - so I had 24 hours warning that last week’s storm was similar volume and trajectory to the Feb 2020 storm that caused havoc through South Wales, Herefordshire, Gloucestershire. That one got an amber warning, this one didn’t - if such a mistake were made in an industry that the general public understands there’d be calls for sackings and inquiries. Short range rainfall forecasting really isn’t very hard!

Snow and thunder storms are genuinely hard to predict so we’ll see what actually comes tomorrow. In these instances I refer to local services such as Forest of Dean Weather or Midlands Storm Chasers - these are always going to be a lot more specific, and honest, with forecasts and likelihoods.
 

theironroad

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The Express just want sensational headlines, not based on actual widespread forecasting.

Express headlines are limited to:

Extreme weather
House prices
Brexit
Maddie
Diana

I may have missed one..
 

Typhoon

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I don’t know if they have improved, but the BBC weather website was totally hopeless.
i.e. forecast: Sunny spells ends up snowing.
Interesting - weather forecast for me [North Kent Coast] was just the same and we got (prolonged) sunny spells from noon onwards but probably cold enough for snow. Morning was dull with some rain; go inland a bit, on the Downs, and it might well have snowed. I have looked at other areas for tomorrow and a large swathe seems to have the same forecast. It might just be that their forecast areas are just too large for more accurate forecasting
 

Gloster

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Despite the enormous amount of hi-tech kit and years of data, weather forecasting still contains an element of guesswork. And like any guesswork, it will sometimes be wrong: weather is a law to itself. (There is an old comment that religion is man’s attempt to communicate with the weather.) We have just got to put up with the fact that the forecasters are doing their best and live with their occasional mistakes.

I tend to use the Met Office on the basis that they have the most kit, data and experience, but I have noticed that in recent years they seem more prone to verging on the side of caution: forecasting wetter/colder/windier conditions than appear. I think that this is because on a few occasions when they have failed to forecast periods of bad weather, they have been pilloried by the (tabloid) press, which either has its own agenda or just wants headlines.
 

nlogax

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I would like to nominate
Daily express
I nominate the Express as the loudest foghorn of total baloney in every category, not just weather forecasts.

BBC Weather has seemed a bit less reliable since moving to MeteoGroup. Weather Underground is the best source I've found. Hugely reliable and detailed. App was worth buying.
 

PeterY

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Working outside, I tend to find the BBC forecasts the most accurate, especially for rain but only 24 to 36 hours ahead.
 

Bevan Price

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One problem with BBC Radio 4 weather forecasts is that they are squeezed for time, especially those scheduled within the Today programme. The forecasts ideally need about 3-4 minutes to give detailed coverage for the whole country. But because the Today programme seems so incompetent in its ability to schedule interviews, the weather forecasts are often compressed to a rushed, garbled summary with inadequate detail. And why do the adverts (a.k.a. programme trails) seem to be given higher priority than the weather forecasts when it comes to time reduction?
 

eoff

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To be honest think they really struggle anyway more than 24 hours in advance as not quite an exact science. How many times have you checked long range forecast and that's actually what happens? Very few, I expect.
This is because often the weather develops chaotically and to handle this the forecasters run many simulations of the weather. But then the problem is presenting the spread in forecasts in a meaningful way. But in general the move to more accurate models, more observations and more computer power means that forecast accuracy has improved dramatically from what was possible before. The Met Office are currently saying that "The Met Office’s four day forecast is now as accurate as our one day forecast was 30 years ago."

I used to use the Met Office app but stopped when they introduced advertising.

Not sure who produces the data for the BBC forecast nowadays.
 

matt

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The met Office was spot on the other day when I was out. It said rain at 1300 which is when it started to rain.
 

bspahh

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There are different types of error from weather forecasts. Sometimes the forecast is correct, but the timing is wrong. Sometimes there might be rain which is too light to be picked up by rain radar, so it won't be picked up. I'm in East Anglia, and so there aren't any hills to mess up the predictions.

The BBC use forecasts from MeteoGroup https://www.dtn.com/about-us/company-profile/ instead of the Met Office.

For short term term "is it going to rain in the next 2 hours", I like the MinuteCast at Accuweather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec4a-2/minute-weather-forecast/328328 Its not perfect, but it does a pretty good job.

For "is it snowing?", then https://uksnowmap.com/ is good. It plots the locations of tweets, where people give the first half of their post code, and a rank from 0 to 10 of the snow intensity (0 is nothing, 10 is a blizzard).

To get a feel for rain in the next half day, I like http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ which uses the MeteoGroup rain radar as it also shows the intensity of the rain clouds.

For a forecast over a few days, then I prefer the Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ That has video reports which sometimes gives a better overview if there are uncertainties, and the text from weather warnings. The weather warnings are usually over-cautious, but its good to keep an eye out for possible problems.

For long term forecasts, then https://www.wxcharts.com/ shows the predictions for the next couple of weeks. These predictions are from https://www.ecmwf.int/ and are usually wrong in the detail, but often give a reasonable idea of the character of the weather.
 
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Darandio

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The met Office was spot on the other day when I was out. It said rain at 1300 which is when it started to rain.

Well i'm pleased I didn't rely on them to make a trip out right now, they say it's currently cloudy with only a 20% chance of precipitation yet it's currently hammering it down. :lol:

I do agree with the poster above though, I find the the MinuteCast at Accuweather to be pretty good.
 
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