Well, that will be tricky, what with the International Food and Drink event taking place there in February.Even so, hospitals have been told to start preparing to use them.
I guess they won't have to worry about catering !
Well, that will be tricky, what with the International Food and Drink event taking place there in February.Even so, hospitals have been told to start preparing to use them.
"Decisive" national action is needed to tackle the spread of Covid and prevent a "catastrophe" in the new year, a scientist advising the government says.
Prof Andrew Hayward suggested tougher measures than those already in place in England may be necessary to deal with rising numbers of infections.
England's tier restrictions are due to be reviewed on Wednesday.
Hospitals in England are currently treating more Covid patients than at the peak of the first wave in April.
NHS England's chief executive Simon Stevens said health workers were "back in the eye of the storm".
On Monday, a record 41,385 new Covid cases were reported in the UK, though it is thought the infection rate was higher during spring when testing was much more limited.
There were 20,426 people being treated for the virus in hospitals in England on Monday, which is higher than the previous peak of about 19,000 in April.
Health officials in Wales and Scotland have also said they are at risk of becoming overwhelmed.
The spread of a new coronavirus variant means the UK is "entering a very dangerous new phase of the pandemic", according to Prof Hayward, a member of the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag).
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We're going to need decisive, early, national action to prevent a catastrophe in January and February."
But even on the economic front, Sweden has not performed well. Its gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 8.3 percent in the three months to June 2020, compared with contractions of 5.1 percent for Norway, 4.5 percent for Finland and 6.8 percent for Denmark.
The government has had six months to prepare the NHS for the second wave and yet they seem to have done very little for it. Surely in six months they could have trained final year medical students to treat Covid patients or requisitioned private hospitals to provide additional healthcare capacity.Well that's just cosmic isn't it.
We have our Government and its advisors complaining about hospitals being overwhelmed, yet the Nightingale, which at the very least could be used to get some people requiring less intensive care out of the way, or provide somewhere for recovering patients to recuperate, instead of reinfecting their care homes, has been dismantled.
Certainly fills me with confidence.
Maybe I am missing something here, but surely over the summer and early autumn there was a enough time to increase oxygen supplies at hospitals.A hospital in south east London was forced to divert ambulances after fearing it could run low on oxygen due to rising coronavirus patients, according to reports. The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, in Woolwich, declared a ‘major incident’ on Sunday, the Independent said. Officials were reportedly worried oxygen flow could be disrupted and decided to divert ambulances to King’s College Hospital and St Thomas’ Hospital.
Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/12/28/lond...-oxygen-supply-shortage-13817224/?ito=cbshare
From what I understand of last time when this happened, it's not a case of the stored oxygen running low, but that of the volume of oxygen that the system can deliver at any one time. Essentially the piping of the hospitals cannot cope with the flow rate being demanded.The government has had six months to prepare the NHS for the second wave and yet they seem to have done very little for it. Surely in six months they could have trained final year medical students to treat Covid patients or requisitioned private hospitals to provide additional healthcare capacity.
Yet there are reports of hospitals running out of oxygen. From the Metro yesterday:
Maybe I am missing something here, but surely over the summer and early autumn there was a enough time to increase oxygen supplies at hospitals.
Whatever approach you are going to take to tackling Covid-19, surely increasing healthcare capacity as much as possible is the one thing that pretty much everyone would agree on.
Take a look at this video. The one in London cannot reopen
London's Nightingale hospital remains on standby, despite the removal of some of its equipment, NHS England has said.
England's hospitals are currently treating more Covid-19 patients than during the previous peak of the virus in April.
Some equipment, including beds and ventilators, are no longer at the ExCel Centre site, it is understood.
NHS England said the facility would be available to support the capital's hospitals if needed.
It sent a letter to trusts on 23 December asking them to plan for the use of additional facilities such as the Nightingale hospitals.
The ExCel Centre site, which opened on 3 April with space for 4,000 beds to treat Covid-19 patients, was placed on standby in May when fewer than 20 patients were being treated there.
A spokesperson for the NHS said: "The Nightingale in London remains on standby and will be available to support the capital's hospitals if needed.
"In the meantime it is vital that Londoners do everything possible to reduce transmission and cut the number of new infections which otherwise inevitably result in more avoidable deaths."
Yes, it seems laughable that when the tiers clearly weren't working through the autumn to supress new infections that anyone thought that the tiers would work through December.I'm glad we kept numbers down over the summer, and saved them for when hospitals are traditionally busy!
Covid: UK faces 'catastrophe' without tougher action, warns scientist
"Decisive" national action is needed to tackle the spread of Covid and prevent a "catastrophe" in the new year, a scientist advising the government says.
Prof Andrew Hayward suggested tougher measures may be necessary to deal with rising numbers of infections.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock will announce any changes to England's tier restrictions on Wednesday.
Hospitals in England are currently treating more Covid patients than at the peak of the first wave in April.
NHS England's chief executive Simon Stevens said health workers were "back in the eye of the storm".
On Monday, a record 41,385 new Covid cases were reported in the UK, though it is thought the infection rate was higher during spring when testing was much more limited.
There were 20,426 people being treated for the virus in hospitals in England on Monday, which is higher than the previous peak of about 19,000 in April.
Health officials in Wales and Scotland have also said they are at risk of becoming overwhelmed.
What are the lockdown and tier four rules?
Concern at 'unprecedented' English infection level
New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
The spread of a new coronavirus variant means the UK is "entering a very dangerous new phase of the pandemic", according to Prof Hayward, a member of the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag).
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We're going to need decisive, early, national action to prevent a catastrophe in January and February."
The "50% increase in transmissibility" of the new variant means that "the previous levels of restrictions that worked before won't work now, and so tier four restrictions are likely to be necessary - or even higher than that ", he added.
From the Beeb this afternoon:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55475240
This is the first time I've seen 'tougher than tier 4' mentioned by the media, and no doubt it'll be everywhere soon, with tomorrow an announcement of tougher rules on the way.
And yet the BBC are now reporting that tents could be used for overflows....Yet NHS England have said it is still on standby.
Covid-19: London's NHS Nightingale 'on standby'
NHS England says the facility is available to help the capital's hospitals as Covid-19 cases rise.www.bbc.co.uk
Yesterday, a health official warned that England's "very high" coronavirus infection level was a "growing concern" as the NHS continues to struggle to cope with rising patient numbers.
The number of people being treated for Covid-19 in hospital is now 20,426, which is higher than the previous peak of about 19,000 in April.
Now, a senior doctor has said that health staff are considering the idea of setting up tents outside hospitals to triage patients.
Emergency medicine consultant Simon Walsh, who is deputy chair of the British Medical Association's UK consultants committee, said such plans were normally reserved for dealing with major incidents such as terror attacks or major industrial disasters.
But he told the PA news agency that many trusts in London and south-east England were "effectively operating in a major incident mode", with crisis meetings, and staff asked to work on their days off.
He added: "They are dealing with queues of ambulances outside many emergency departments, often with patients sat in the ambulances for many hours until they can be offloaded into the department because there simply isn't any space to put them in."
I am seriously starting to wonder what brief groups like SAGE actually have. As demonstrated above there seems to have been little effort to prepare for the current spike despite these advisors & ministers constantly offering grim predictions ever since the pandemic broke out. I can't shake the feelings that the blame game they have been playing ever since is just a verbal bunker for them to hide their mistakes in.I wonder how these professors live with saying things like this? I guess they find it easy to joe public finding it hard.
They meant to have brains in sorting this but clearly their heads are in the sand but happy to lockdown constantly, I thought their jobs were more than scare the crap out of people, speak to media then ramp up more fear - can they care to give us a solution/exit?
Yet on the other why has the general media asked about an exit out of all this than ramping it up, isn’t that the purpose of the BBC/Sky/ITN (ITV/CH4/5) and STV?
And yet the BBC are now reporting that tents could be used for overflows....
Questions need to be asked of the government & NHS bosses, such as "What have you been doing for the last 9 months while we've been putting our lives on hold?".
I am seriously starting to wonder what brief groups like SAGE actually have. As demonstrated above there seems to have been little effort to prepare for the current spike despite these advisors & ministers constantly offering grim predictions ever since the pandemic broke out. I can't shake the feelings that the blame game they have been playing ever since is just a verbal bunker for them to hide their mistakes in.
Perhaps they have spent too much time reading these threads and were lulled into a false sense of security?Questions need to be asked of the government & NHS bosses, such as "What have you been doing for the last 9 months while we've been putting our lives on hold?".
Mortality rates follow a similar track to cases around 3-5 weeks after cases during March - April, but when cases start to increase in June - July there is no similar increase in deaths even more than 5 weeks subsequently.
Would this be called a wave of excess deaths? Looks more like a ripple broadly comparable to the winter of 2017/18.Many have been analysing the data carefully and reassuring that either there wouldn’t be a second wave
My understanding, which I’m happy to be corrected on, is that ‘too many’ Covid patients are having the temerity to stick around and recover, rather than doing the decent thing and shuffling off to the mortuary after a few days.Would this be called a wave of excess deaths? Looks more like a ripple broadly comparable to the winter of 2017/18.
Hint: not all 'Covid deaths' are excess deaths.
View attachment 87881
Graphs and maps from EUROMOMO
www.euromomo.eu
The NHS is always under pressure at this time of year, so the answer of course is yes.Again, please do correct me, but are you saying that the NHS is not under pressure?
How do you define a 'wave''?For the avoidance of doubt, I’m not a ‘lockdown’ enthusiast, so I’m very happy to hear your calm analysis of the situation. Are you saying that there’s no ‘second wave’?
"It's not particularly scientific: how you define a wave is arbitrary,"
...the truth is many experts try to avoid the phrase altogether.
Yes, the NHS is always under pressure at this time of year. I wonder how much the 21 000 Covid patients is helping with that?The NHS is always under pressure at this time of year, so the answer of course is yes.
How do you define a 'wave''?
That is typically how respiratory illnesses spread outside of the tropics, so hardly unprecedented.the numbers in hospitals have certainly increased a little since the summer, presumably with knock-on effects on care for other illnesses.
Is it 21,000 covid patients or 21,000 patients with covid, remembering that for much of the year many other treatments and operations were cancelled?Yes, the NHS is always under pressure at this time of year. I wonder how much the 21 000 Covid patients is helping with that?
It’s certainly true that we don’t have the same number of daily Covid deaths as back in April, but the numbers in hospitals have certainly increased a little since the summer, presumably with knock-on effects on care for other illnesses.
Many thanks for the links, interesting reading, and agreed about the terms
Dunno, please do enlighten me. Either way up, it doesn’t seem like the steady away situation that many were predicting in the summer. And the point still stands about the difficulty of attracting retired doctors to chance it on Covid wards...Is it 21,000 covid patients or 21,000 patients with covid, remembering that for much of the year many other treatments and operations were cancelled?
Many thanks for that, really helpful to know, appreciatedThat is typically how respiratory illnesses spread outside of the tropics, so hardly unprecedented.
I was asking you, and please remember to show your working out of the calculations....Dunno, please do enlighten me. Either way up, it doesn’t seem like the steady away situation that many were predicting in the summer. And the point still stands about the difficulty of attracting retired doctors to chance it on Covid ward
I’ve absolutely no idea, how on earth can I possibly know? All ways round the hospitals are looking a tad busy right now and I suspect those who are there ‘just having the virus’ have a bit more than a tickly coughI was asking you, and please remember to show your working out of the calculations....
Seriously though you are aware of the huge backlog of treatments and operations as a result of the prioritisation of covid over pretty much everything else? So is it not possible that what we are seeing is people needing urgent attention and some just having the virus?
I was asking you, and please remember to show your working out of the calculations....
Seriously though you are aware of the huge backlog of treatments and operations as a result of the prioritisation of covid over pretty much everything else? So is it not possible that what we are seeing is people needing urgent attention and some just having the virus?
So is it possible that the hospitas are filling up with people whose treatments were cancelled earlier in the year?I’ve absolutely no idea, how on earth can I possibly know? All ways round the hospitals are looking a tad busy right now and I suspect those who are there ‘just having the virus’ have a bit more than a tickly cough
Still no sign of all those retired doctors rushing to help out, do you have a plan to tempt them?
Exactly, the waiting lists have grown rapidly since late March and it is entirely possible that a lot of the strain on the NHS is as a result of people's worsening conditions as a result of having treatments cancelled.Interesting point - it's possible that some of the inpatients are only there because the preventative work that the NHS usually carry out was paused for months earlier in the year.
So is it possible that the hospitas are filling up with people whose treatments were cancelled earlier in the year?
Exactly, the waiting lists have grown rapidly since late March and it is entirely possible that a lot of the strain on the NHS is as a result of people's worsening conditions as a result of having treatments cancelled.
No. But as noted above you can find any number of articles from previous years where the NHS is under winter pressures.Again, please do correct me, but are you saying that the NHS is not under pressure?
All ways round, the hospitals do seem to be filling up rather quickly.So is it possible that the hospitas are filling up with people whose treatments were cancelled earlier in the year?
Apologies that the quote uses the forbidden word ‘wave’. Choose why people are there, are you claiming that the hospitals are not under pressure?The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital in London is now higher than levels recorded at the peak of the first wave of the virus. A total of 5,371 hospital patients were confirmed as having Covid-19 as of 8am on 29 December, according to the latest figures from NHS England. During the first wave, the number of patients in London peaked at 5,201 on 9 April.
All of which might well be true, but what is happening is at significant variance from what the posters I quoted were saying in the summer.No. But as noted above you can find any number of articles from previous years where the NHS is under winter pressures.
As per the graph below, bed occupancy is significantly lower than previous years. Winter 2020 so far has the lowest bed occupancy for the last 10 years.
The Government do not publish data on the breakdown of true community vs hospital (nosocomial) acquired infections. However this article puts it at about 25% so very significant when people talk about hospitals being at capacity.
Covid infections caught in hospital rise by a third in one week
The number of people likely to have caught covid-19 in NHS hospitals in England has risen by more than a third in the last week.www.hsj.co.uk
What I consider really dangerous is the precedent that we the population should sacrifice so much in the name of 'protecting the NHS'. Expect similar calls next year even if covid-19 disappears.
OK at this point I note that you are dodging a key question. Having asked one twice I don't intend to ask again, but I will say you won't find your answer in the particular media source you refer to. Let me know when you are prepared to tackle the question and we can continue.All ways round, the hospitals do seem to be filling up rather quickly.
Please forgive the leftie newspaper quote, we cord jacket with elbow patches types tend to get our information there, but it seems the London hospitals now have more Covid 19 patients than during than in April:
UK records its highest number of new Covid infections, with 53,135 cases
Daily increase in infections is new record and considerably higher than Monday’s 41,385www.theguardian.com
Apologies that the quote uses the forbidden word ‘wave’. Choose why people are there, are you claiming that the hospitals are not under pressure?
All of which might well be true, but what is happening is at significant variance from what the posters I quoted were saying in the summer.
Many thanks for the article, shocking the number of people picking up Covid whilst in hospital.
I’ve looked but I can’t find any figures to back up your claim that the hospitals are filling up due to patients who should have been treated earlier in the year. I think I did answer your question, I said ‘I don’t know’. Since you are something of a doyen of the virus threads I was hoping you might be able to help me.OK at this point I note that you are dodging a key question. Having asked one twice I don't intend to ask again, but I will say you won't find your answer in the particular media source you refer to. Let me know when you are prepared to tackle the question and we can continue.